How valuable is LT2? (1 Viewer)

[fanaticskinsfan]

In a 1pt ppr league, 1pt/10 yd rush & 6pt tds, at what point is the number one overall pick worth trading? You have a sure think in LT2, but trading to the 4th spot plus a 2nd round pick, is that worth it? You will get 4 of the top 25 players, but none of them are as sure a thing as LT2.

Give up 1 & 168 for 4 & 20. How much is the number 1 pick worth?

Please don't lead me to the trade calculator, as I think every draft is different and the calculator is too generic.

Thanks

 

[Jason Wood]

That depends on how close LT comes to last year's tallies. He had the best fantasy football season in NFL history last year, and the distance between he and his counterparts was so pronounced, there was virtually no trade scenario that would've justified the deal. If he plays more like he did in 2004 or 2005, then a trade would be more feasible, albeit he would still need to fetch a boatload in return to make it worthwhile.

 

[fanaticskinsfan]

That depends on how close LT comes to last year's tallies. He had the best fantasy football season in NFL history last year, and the distance between he and his counterparts was so pronounced, there was virtually no trade scenario that would've justified the deal. If he plays more like he did in 2004 or 2005, then a trade would be more feasible, albeit he would still need to fetch a boatload in return to make it worthwhile.

That is true. However, what is the likelyhood that LT duplicates his 2006 season. I see 20 tds plus 1800 yds rush 500 rec plus 3 tds.That is not even close to 2006, but is more like LTs past. That being said, does the #4 + #20 = #1?

 

[Jason Wood]

That depends on how close LT comes to last year's tallies. He had the best fantasy football season in NFL history last year, and the distance between he and his counterparts was so pronounced, there was virtually no trade scenario that would've justified the deal. If he plays more like he did in 2004 or 2005, then a trade would be more feasible, albeit he would still need to fetch a boatload in return to make it worthwhile.

That is true. However, what is the likelyhood that LT duplicates his 2006 season. I see 20 tds plus 1800 yds rush 500 rec plus 3 tds.That is not even close to 2006, but is more like LTs past. That being said, does the #4 + #20 = #1?

Not in my book

 

[fanaticskinsfan]

That depends on how close LT comes to last year's tallies. He had the best fantasy football season in NFL history last year, and the distance between he and his counterparts was so pronounced, there was virtually no trade scenario that would've justified the deal. If he plays more like he did in 2004 or 2005, then a trade would be more feasible, albeit he would still need to fetch a boatload in return to make it worthwhile.

That is true. However, what is the likelyhood that LT duplicates his 2006 season. I see 20 tds plus 1800 yds rush 500 rec plus 3 tds.That is not even close to 2006, but is more like LTs past. That being said, does the #4 + #20 = #1?

Not in my book

Not in your book that LT goes for 2300 total yds plus 22 tds? Yes, that may be a little high. More like 1800 total yds and 20 tds.Again that being said, how much do you value the #1 pick. What would be the minimum number of picks and round you would want in return.

 

[Jason Wood]

That depends on how close LT comes to last year's tallies. He had the best fantasy football season in NFL history last year, and the distance between he and his counterparts was so pronounced, there was virtually no trade scenario that would've justified the deal. If he plays more like he did in 2004 or 2005, then a trade would be more feasible, albeit he would still need to fetch a boatload in return to make it worthwhile.

That is true. However, what is the likelyhood that LT duplicates his 2006 season. I see 20 tds plus 1800 yds rush 500 rec plus 3 tds.That is not even close to 2006, but is more like LTs past. That being said, does the #4 + #20 = #1?

Not in my book

Not in your book that LT goes for 2300 total yds plus 22 tds? Yes, that may be a little high. More like 1800 total yds and 20 tds.Again that being said, how much do you value the #1 pick. What would be the minimum number of picks and round you would want in return.

No no...you misunderstand. "Not in my book" is the 4 + 20 = 1 this year.

 

[fanaticskinsfan]

That depends on how close LT comes to last year's tallies. He had the best fantasy football season in NFL history last year, and the distance between he and his counterparts was so pronounced, there was virtually no trade scenario that would've justified the deal. If he plays more like he did in 2004 or 2005, then a trade would be more feasible, albeit he would still need to fetch a boatload in return to make it worthwhile.

That is true. However, what is the likelyhood that LT duplicates his 2006 season. I see 20 tds plus 1800 yds rush 500 rec plus 3 tds.That is not even close to 2006, but is more like LTs past. That being said, does the #4 + #20 = #1?

Not in my book

Not in your book that LT goes for 2300 total yds plus 22 tds? Yes, that may be a little high. More like 1800 total yds and 20 tds.Again that being said, how much do you value the #1 pick. What would be the minimum number of picks and round you would want in return.

No no...you misunderstand. "Not in my book" is the 4 + 20 = 1 this year.

Even thouh you could get say Gore, Harrison, Benson/Portis, TO/ROY/Fitz? You can get 4 of the top 25 players in the draft versus 3 of the top 25 players.That extra player is not worth LT?

 

[Jason Wood]

That depends on how close LT comes to last year's tallies. He had the best fantasy football season in NFL history last year, and the distance between he and his counterparts was so pronounced, there was virtually no trade scenario that would've justified the deal. If he plays more like he did in 2004 or 2005, then a trade would be more feasible, albeit he would still need to fetch a boatload in return to make it worthwhile.

That is true. However, what is the likelyhood that LT duplicates his 2006 season. I see 20 tds plus 1800 yds rush 500 rec plus 3 tds.That is not even close to 2006, but is more like LTs past. That being said, does the #4 + #20 = #1?

Not in my book

Not in your book that LT goes for 2300 total yds plus 22 tds? Yes, that may be a little high. More like 1800 total yds and 20 tds.Again that being said, how much do you value the #1 pick. What would be the minimum number of picks and round you would want in return.

No no...you misunderstand. "Not in my book" is the 4 + 20 = 1 this year.

Even thouh you could get say Gore, Harrison, Benson/Portis, TO/ROY/Fitz? You can get 4 of the top 25 players in the draft versus 3 of the top 25 players.That extra player is not worth LT?

Not in my opinion, no

 

[fanaticskinsfan]

Thanks for your opinion Wood.

Anyone else want to venture their opinion?

How does anyone else value their draft picks?

 

[CravenM]

Thanks for your opinion Wood.Anyone else want to venture their opinion?How does anyone else value their draft picks?

To me, it would depend how successful #4 and #20 ultimately turn out.LT2 has only missed one game in the NFL - in 2004. To me, he has the intangible of (knock on wood) never getting hurt and never taking a hard shot - similar to Emmitt Smith and Barry Sanders.Whoever you get at #4, to me, has a much larger percentage chance of missing time during the season.This is probably bad logic but it helps me sleep at night.

 

[Warehouse Nasty]

Thanks for your opinion Wood.Anyone else want to venture their opinion?How does anyone else value their draft picks?

I agree with J-Wood. It would take much more for me to give up 1.01, ESPECIALLY in a PPR league. I wouldn't do it for his 1st and 2nd.

 

[zoonation]

Thanks for your opinion Wood.Anyone else want to venture their opinion?How does anyone else value their draft picks?

I agree with J-Wood. It would take much more for me to give up 1.01, ESPECIALLY in a PPR league. I wouldn't do it for his 1st and 2nd.

I didn't think so at first but think about this:A healthy Gore.then 3 of T.O./Harrison/Holt/wayne/maybe even johnson (assume flex)that is sick.In a ppr i don't know how you don't do it.

 

[glumpy]

I've been looking at exactly this trade described; I've got the #1 pick, offered the #4--and trying to make it work.

That depends on how close LT comes to last year's tallies.

Lets look at projections for 2007. For VBD purposes we're looking at Dodds: 2067 yd/21 td'sOverreaction based on last year? Maybe a little, but I think not so much:

2006: 2323/31

2005: 1832/20

2004: 1776/18

2003: 2370/17

Even ignoring 2006, the yardage projection is close to average while td projections are within 3.

Discount the extra td's and the difference is only 18 ffp.

Then I looked at the trade calculator (which the OP has already dismissed) just for comparison...PLUS 10!!

Somehow that just didn't give me comfort either, so I looked directly at the VBD projections based on my own league's scoring--and it showed a net loss of 32 points.

Trying to get a real handle on it, and giving myself all the advantages possible--I again looked at the trade values based on my league's scoring--only this time I considered them based on getting Steven Jackson at #4 (lol).

Nope--it still didn't balance out to a good trade scenario....

One more time...What if I got all the pie-in-the-sky perfect scenario players I'd want in those first four picks?

Uh uh.

So maybe I'm still thinking "what if?"--but meanwhile I advised the team offering the trade that it did not look like it was gonna happen, given even conservative projections for LT this year.

I didn't think so at first but think about this:

A healthy Gore.

then 3 of T.O./Harrison/Holt/wayne/maybe even johnson (assume flex)

that is sick.

In a ppr i don't know how you don't do it.

disclaimer: Mine is not a ppr league; maybe that would have made the difference, but LT gets his share of those too...(Over 50 every year with a high of 100 in 2003!)

 

[Dexter Manley]

In a 10 team draft last Sunday, td heavy w/ppr this trade went down:

1.01 traded his pick and his 5th, 6th, and 7th rounders for 1.06, and his 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounders. I wouldn't trade the top pick unless I got a mega-deal like this.

 

[glumpy]

In a 10 team draft last Sunday, td heavy w/ppr this trade went down:1.01 traded his pick and his 5th, 6th, and 7th rounders for 1.06, and his 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounders. I wouldn't trade the top pick unless I got a mega-deal like this.

 

[Buckna]

This would partially depend on the number of starters you have and how many teams/roster spots are taken up (in other words, what's the talent like on the waiver wire?)

In a league with few starters or a smaller number of teams, say only 2 RB & 2WR or a 10 team league, it would take a whole lot for me to move LT as I feel his value is greater. Everyone will be starting some studs at most positions, so the better your stud is, the better chance you have. That extra 2nd you have may not be all that much greater than a guy you would have already drafted before you made the trade.

 

[fanaticskinsfan]

Our league is 12 teams start 1 rb, 2wr, 1te, 1k, 1 Def/ST & 1 flex(rb or wr). We get 1ppr, 1/10 yd rush/rec, 1/25 yd pass, 6pt td rush/rec, 4pt td pass.

So I assume that I could get Gore at 4, Holt/TO/Gates/ROY in the 2.20, 2.24 & 3.01.

So what do you see now?

If not his 1st & 2nd for 1.01, then what other picks do I need to make it worth it?