I know oddsmakers know what they are doing but... (1 Viewer)

[Pnishthm]

Opening at Steelers (2-6) -5 versus Saints (6-2)

They may be dead on with the spread but damn this goes to show what little respect the Saints are getting STILL!

 

[billyjoe]

Opening at Steelers (2-6) -5 versus Saints (6-2) They may be dead on with the spread but damn this goes to show what little respect the Saints are getting STILL!

You realize has nothing to do with how good they think the teams are?The spread is set to ensure a 50/50 split on each side of the line. It has nothing to do with how much they think X team will win by.They are trying to get equal money on each side. Nothing less, nothing more.

 

[Pnishthm]

Opening at Steelers (2-6) -5 versus Saints (6-2) They may be dead on with the spread but damn this goes to show what little respect the Saints are getting STILL!

You realize has nothing to do with how good they think the teams are?The spread is set to ensure a 50/50 split on each side of the line. It has nothing to do with how much they think X team will win by.They are trying to get equal money on each side. Nothing less, nothing more.

That is my point... they feel that the perception amoung the NFL public is that the 2-6 Steelers are 5 pts better than the 6-2 Saints. If that's not a lack of respect for the Saints, I don't know what is.

 

[Pit951]

no, they feel that about 50% of the public feels the steelers are 5 points better than the saints. they're betting the other 50% doesnt.

 

[Pnishthm]

no, they feel that about 50% of the public feels the steelers are 5 points better than the saints. they're betting the other 50% doesnt.

So they feel that a majority of the betting public will bet the Steelers if the line is -4 better? Geez!

 

[Pit951]

it's a tough game to call, being a steelers fan, i forbid myself from betting on their games. i know the saints are much much improved this year. i think they're the dog because its in pittsburgh, and eventually, the steelers have to stop turning the ball over 5 times a game(hopefully, sweet jesus they're bad this year). and plus, they really havent played in cold weather this year. dome teams are always gonna get shafted going on the road to a cold weather stadium.

 

[Sopranos]

I will take the Saints in that one.

 

[Pit951]

i have a feeling, if the weather here(in pgh) holds up through the game that line is going to move towards the saints. its predicted to be 60 degrees through the week.

 

[B-Scott]

Steeler fan here. The game is a tossup. The steelers are better then there record indicates. So many turnovers over the last couple of weeks.

 

[Mungo Burrows]

Steeler fan here. The game is a tossup. The steelers are better then there record indicates. So many turnovers over the last couple of weeks.

A perfect example of why the line is where it is. There are still a lot of out there who think this is the same team that won the superbowl last year.

 

[B-Scott]

I don't think were the same team as last season. I just think were a better team then 2-6.

 

[billyjoe]

Opening at Steelers (2-6) -5 versus Saints (6-2) They may be dead on with the spread but damn this goes to show what little respect the Saints are getting STILL!

You realize has nothing to do with how good they think the teams are?The spread is set to ensure a 50/50 split on each side of the line. It has nothing to do with how much they think X team will win by.They are trying to get equal money on each side. Nothing less, nothing more.

That is my point... they feel that the perception amoung the NFL public is that the 2-6 Steelers are 5 pts better than the 6-2 Saints. If that's not a lack of respect for the Saints, I don't know what is.

You said "I know what the oddsmakers know what they are doing BUT look at Saints @ Pitt!"There's no but. They know what they are doing.And yes I agree with you. The Saints are getting no respect.I'm surprised we haven't seen a "Worst 6-2 team ever" Bucs type thread. =)

 

[Voice Of Reason]

The Saints are going to have problems with the Steelers because the Saints are probably not going to take advantage of errant Roethlisberger throws. The Saints defense seems to have inherited the hands of Donte' Stallworth. Since week 1, the only interceptions the Saints defense have are off an end of half hail mary vs Philly and off an underhanded 5-10 yard pass into the endzone by Brett Favre.

Outside of the turnovers, the Steelers seem to be moving it well on offense, and I am not sure if the Saints D can take advantage and turn Pittsburgh over

 

[massraider]

Opening at Steelers (2-6) -5 versus Saints (6-2) They may be dead on with the spread but damn this goes to show what little respect the Saints are getting STILL!

The Broncos were getting 3 points last week against the same Steelers team. This has nothing to do with the Saints, and everything to do with the Steelers.

 

[Pnishthm]

Opening at Steelers (2-6) -5 versus Saints (6-2) They may be dead on with the spread but damn this goes to show what little respect the Saints are getting STILL!

The Broncos were getting 3 points last week against the same Steelers team. This has nothing to do with the Saints, and everything to do with the Steelers.

You may be dead on with that.

 

[B-Scott]

The Saints are going to have problems with the Steelers because the Saints are probably not going to take advantage of errant Roethlisberger throws. The Saints defense seems to have inherited the hands of Donte' Stallworth. Since week 1, the only interceptions the Saints defense have are off an end of half hail mary vs Philly and off an underhanded 5-10 yard pass into the endzone by Brett Favre.Outside of the turnovers, the Steelers seem to be moving it well on offense, and I am not sure if the Saints D can take advantage and turn Pittsburgh over

The raiders are not exactly known for there defense or turnovers ,but Ben threw 3 interceptions in that game. Ben is making every defense look great this year.

 

[protoslacker]

Pitt 14-0 before NO even gets a chance to move the ball

 

[Hammered Finz]

AFC is better than the NFC

 

[Nipsey]

Opening at Steelers (2-6) -5 versus Saints (6-2) They may be dead on with the spread but damn this goes to show what little respect the Saints are getting STILL!

You realize has nothing to do with how good they think the teams are?The spread is set to ensure a 50/50 split on each side of the line. It has nothing to do with how much they think X team will win by.They are trying to get equal money on each side. Nothing less, nothing more.

This is 100% wrong. Vegas/books try to make as much money as possible. Take this game...80% of the online action at my book is on the Saints, yet the line went from Pitt -5 to Pitt -6.5. If what you say is true, wouldn't ther line have gone the other way? Same thing happened today in the Bronco-Raider game...everyone is on Denver yet the line dropped from 9 to 8.

 

[Pnishthm]

Pitt 14-0 before NO even gets a chance to move the ball

Oppppssssss 14-10

 

[protoslacker]

38-31 Pitt wins by 7.

 

[SteelerMurf]

maybe they should have given the Saints more points.......

 

[EBF]

The Steelers are the 2006 version of the 2005 San Diego Chargers. They're a much better team than their record would indicate.

 

[Steelers4Life]

The Steelers are the 2006 version of the 2005 San Diego Chargers. They're a much better team than their record would indicate.

I can't agree with that... turnovers are part of the game, and good teams don't turn the ball over. Four losses are directly attributable to them, and a good team would've won those games by taking care of the ball.I think the special teams have been atrocious, and the defense has been inconsistent at best at defending the pass. Combine that with turnovers by the offense, and I don't consider the Steelers a good team this year. At least they haven't played like one.It's nice that they won today, but giving up 500 yards of offense isn't a recipe for success very often. When they don't turn the ball over, the Steelers have an offense capable of keeping up with just about anyone, but that's not the way to win consistently. That's the way to be the Bengals.

 

[billyjoe]

Opening at Steelers (2-6) -5 versus Saints (6-2) They may be dead on with the spread but damn this goes to show what little respect the Saints are getting STILL!

You realize has nothing to do with how good they think the teams are?The spread is set to ensure a 50/50 split on each side of the line. It has nothing to do with how much they think X team will win by.They are trying to get equal money on each side. Nothing less, nothing more.

This is 100% wrong. Vegas/books try to make as much money as possible. Take this game...80% of the online action at my book is on the Saints, yet the line went from Pitt -5 to Pitt -6.5. If what you say is true, wouldn't ther line have gone the other way? Same thing happened today in the Bronco-Raider game...everyone is on Denver yet the line dropped from 9 to 8.

It's 100% right. Vegas doesn't need to gamble. Get equal action, it's endless money. They can't lose. They can only lose when the action is lopsided.

 

[Nipsey]

Opening at Steelers (2-6) -5 versus Saints (6-2) They may be dead on with the spread but damn this goes to show what little respect the Saints are getting STILL!

You realize has nothing to do with how good they think the teams are?The spread is set to ensure a 50/50 split on each side of the line. It has nothing to do with how much they think X team will win by.They are trying to get equal money on each side. Nothing less, nothing more.

This is 100% wrong. Vegas/books try to make as much money as possible. Take this game...80% of the online action at my book is on the Saints, yet the line went from Pitt -5 to Pitt -6.5. If what you say is true, wouldn't ther line have gone the other way? Same thing happened today in the Bronco-Raider game...everyone is on Denver yet the line dropped from 9 to 8.

It's 100% right. Vegas doesn't need to gamble. Get equal action, it's endless money. They can't lose. They can only lose when the action is lopsided.

Sorry, that's just not how it works.

 

[SteelerMurf]

The Steelers are the 2006 version of the 2005 San Diego Chargers. They're a much better team than their record would indicate.

Yep, Steelers as a team are playing better than last year in every phase of the game except for punt return and turnovers. And looking at the turnovers and unsportsmanlike penalties, most are unforced. And besides games with 5 turnovers, STeelers are always within a drive of a tie or win late in the ball game. Don't overlook them for next season. They return all starters and there will be the natural promotion of some younger guys like Holmes over Wilson and Chucky over Hartings and McFadden over Deshae (all of those will be improvements). Then you have a higher than normal draft pick.....

 

[CA_7]

This is 100% wrong. Vegas/books try to make as much money as possible. Take this game...80% of the online action at my book is on the Saints, yet the line went from Pitt -5 to Pitt -6.5. If what you say is true, wouldn't ther line have gone the other way? Same thing happened today in the Bronco-Raider game...everyone is on Denver yet the line dropped from 9 to 8.

It's 100% right. Vegas doesn't need to gamble. Get equal action, it's endless money. They can't lose. They can only lose when the action is lopsided.

Sorry, that's just not how it works.

1.

Odds makers will tell you their job is not to predict an event's outcome but, rather divide the public as to who it thinks will win. "When the oddsmakers have set a point spread properly," said Howard Martin, a noted expert on how odds are calculated, "there will be an equal number of people betting each side of the line."

And, that's how the sportsbook makes its money. If things break equally, it can use the losing bets to pay off the winning bets and simply keep the 10% they made off the vig. Of course the sportsbooks would like to see more losers than winners, but that’s why the vig is built in.

In order to give them the best chances at coming up with a neutral number, most odds makers will take a consensus, and then evaluate how their clients typically bet before they post a spread. In other words, each member of the committee comes up with his own numbers. Then all the numbers are looked at and the group decides which one will work the best after evaluating all the factors described earlier.

http://www.ultimatecapper.com/sports-betting-articles-08.htm2.

Before the point spread, most bookmakers would try to book games that were fairly evenly matched in order to decrease the risk of huge losses. But with the point spread they could offer any game they wanted because the line reflected the differences between the strengths and weaknesses of the two teams and helped them attract business on both sides of a game. If a particular game saw heavy action on a particular team, the bookie simply had to move the line to make the opposing team more attractive.

Offering a point spread and 11/10 vigorish not only ensured that the bookies would earn a profit over the long run, but it increased the interest in sports betting across the country as bookmakers in different markets began to implement the new system. Over time, the 11/10 vig would earn the bookie a 4.4 percent profit on the bets they booked (in a perfect scenario where action was balanced for all offerings). The 11/10 system also gave professional bettors something to shoot for: 52.38 percent. When factoring in the vigorish, a winning bettor must hit at that ratio just to break even and they must best that percentage in order to achieve profit.

http://www.docsports.com/sports/betting/hi.../betting/2.html3.

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

http://money.howstuffworks.com/framed.htm?...line_making.htm