I think teams depend too much on the pick value chart. (1 Viewer)

[SwampDawg]

I think teams put too much faith in the pick value chart, or maybe it is just us and the media talking about it and they don't actually care. To me the pick is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it. Take for example the talk in another thread about Detroit trading the #2 to Tampa. Let's say Gaines Adams is the guy Detroit wants, Tampa offer them the #4 and their forth round pick #102 overall and that's it. Everyone says that isn't enough by the value chart (#2=2600 vs #4=1800 + #102=92). But if Detroit has no other real offers while they are on the clock and the deal is still there why would they not do it ? If they don't they either draft Johnson who they don't really want or they draft Adams anyway. If they take the deal they get Adams, pay him a little less and basically pick up a 4th round pick for nothing. I realize 4th rounders are hit or miss but you still got the guy you wanted and have a chance to get another player.

 

[Bri]

I think so too, many many times. FF people do the same thing.

Also, it's odd but it is real easy to get behind a player that the GM+scouting dept just loved and took even though they might not necessarily need the guy. Kiwanuka going to the Giants had New Yorkers confused for a brief time and then soon enough everyone knew who "Kiwi" was and was cheering him. I actually find that whole reaction fascinating.

 

[SwampDawg]

I think so too, many many times. FF people do the same thing.

Good point, I made a trade last year about week 8 that according to the FBG value chart was not a fair trade, but it helped me where I was weak and I only gave up depth. Work out well for me winning the championship, I have dealt with guys that wouldn't have made the trade or will hold a player because no one offers them enough but will never play him while they have a scrub starting at another position.

 

[Warhogs]

My real issue with a pick value chart is that there are not a consistent number of blue chip prospects every year. Some drafts are strong and deep, others are weak, some are strong at the top 2 picks and then weak, some are very good for 15 spots but no franchise players. It should be a tool but you then have to take the data and mix it with some common sense to get the correct answer.

Of course it really doesn't matter what I think because historically it has been used pretty much as the bible when trading picks in the real NFL.

 

[nysfl2]

I think teams put too much faith in the pick value chart, or maybe it is just us and the media talking about it and they don't actually care. To me the pick is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it. Take for example the talk in another thread about Detroit trading the #2 to Tampa. Let's say Gaines Adams is the guy Detroit wants, Tampa offer them the #4 and their forth round pick #102 overall and that's it. Everyone says that isn't enough by the value chart (#2=2600 vs #4=1800 + #102=92). But if Detroit has no other real offers while they are on the clock and the deal is still there why would they not do it ? If they don't they either draft Johnson who they don't really want or they draft Adams anyway. If they take the deal they get Adams, pay him a little less and basically pick up a 4th round pick for nothing. I realize 4th rounders are hit or miss but you still got the guy you wanted and have a chance to get another player.

Wasn't this pick value chart made up before the salary cap was in place? Especially with the huge salaries for the first few picks these days, it seems like this should make a HUGE impact on these values, as it isn't just the 1.01 for 1.10 and 2.05, it is 1.01 for 1.10, 2.05, plus the 3-5 million per year in salary cap space to sign another solid free agent. It really seems like the values of the top few picks should be significantly discounted because of this, but they never seem to be.

 

[Aaronstory]

I think teams put too much faith in the pick value chart, or maybe it is just us and the media talking about it and they don't actually care. To me the pick is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it. Take for example the talk in another thread about Detroit trading the #2 to Tampa. Let's say Gaines Adams is the guy Detroit wants, Tampa offer them the #4 and their forth round pick #102 overall and that's it. Everyone says that isn't enough by the value chart (#2=2600 vs #4=1800 + #102=92). But if Detroit has no other real offers while they are on the clock and the deal is still there why would they not do it ? If they don't they either draft Johnson who they don't really want or they draft Adams anyway. If they take the deal they get Adams, pay him a little less and basically pick up a 4th round pick for nothing. I realize 4th rounders are hit or miss but you still got the guy you wanted and have a chance to get another player.

Damn

 

[massraider]

You may gain a 4th rounder in the short term, but in the long term, I don't think teams want to set a precedent of accepting lowball offers. If you are the GM of a team, you don't want the owner hearing about how your team got taken to the cleaners by Team X.

Add in the possibility of they guy you really want some how getting scooped up by someone else, and a 4th rounder hardly seems worth it.

 

[Velcro]

I don't know what you do for a living, but I'm not sure any of us can say that teams put to much faith in it. GM's may claim to rely on it, and I'm sure teams in the top 10 will hold it dear like the family bible, but once they're in the back room I'm not sure they have the calculators out trying to determine pick mathematics.

Massraider pointed out the issue. As long as their is another team picking before your pick, there is uncertainty that the guy you really want will be gone. Is a 4th rounder enough to take the chance on missing out on your guy?

 

[BigSteelThrill]

I think that the chart just doesnt coincide with the way Pittsburgh handles its trades.

While it is "within the same neighborhood", they just trade to a beat of a different drum.

Its more dependant on the inidiviual player and their player evaluation - which they think they do better/different then most.

 

[GregR_2]

I don't know what you do for a living, but I'm not sure any of us can say that teams put to much faith in it. GM's may claim to rely on it, and I'm sure teams in the top 10 will hold it dear like the family bible, but once they're in the back room I'm not sure they have the calculators out trying to determine pick mathematics.Massraider pointed out the issue. As long as their is another team picking before your pick, there is uncertainty that the guy you really want will be gone. Is a 4th rounder enough to take the chance on missing out on your guy?

This is my feeling about it as well. I imagine a lot of trades will be similar to the value chart because it was made as an amalgamation of all the trades that had actually been going on. But when you come down to it a team is going to get the most they can on a trade and give up as little as possible. And at the same time they are not going to want to give up too much because even if it's good on THAT trade, the next time around another team may feel the team will cave if they stick to their guns because they let something go for cheaper than usual last time.

 

[Marauder]

I'd be willing to bet that the good GM's create their own draft value chart each year based on their final draft grades. I think the concept of assigning point values to each draft slot is extremely valuable when making draft day trades but if everyone is using the same chart nobody has a competitive edge. The edge comes in accurately determining those values and expoiting differences between your chart and the other guy's chart.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I think teams put too much faith in the pick value chart, or maybe it is just us and the media talking about it and they don't actually care. To me the pick is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it. Take for example the talk in another thread about Detroit trading the #2 to Tampa. Let's say Gaines Adams is the guy Detroit wants, Tampa offer them the #4 and their forth round pick #102 overall and that's it. Everyone says that isn't enough by the value chart (#2=2600 vs #4=1800 + #102=92). But if Detroit has no other real offers while they are on the clock and the deal is still there why would they not do it ? If they don't they either draft Johnson who they don't really want or they draft Adams anyway. If they take the deal they get Adams, pay him a little less and basically pick up a 4th round pick for nothing. I realize 4th rounders are hit or miss but you still got the guy you wanted and have a chance to get another player.

Damn

This was the argument for Houston trading last year instead of just taking Mario Williams last year.