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Ideal Rookie RB Landing Spots (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Ilov80s
- Start date
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Good to great: Seattle, Tampa Bay, Washington, Denver, Green Bay
Tolerable but not ideal: Buffalo, NYG, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Detroit, Houston
Tolerable but not ideal: Buffalo, NYG, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Detroit, Houston
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Purely for fantasy:
Barkley: Colts
High scoring offense (assuming Luck is ok) that can let him loose in every situation. 250 carries and 50 receptions is a sure thing.
Guice: Lions
Lions have a potent offense but haven't been able to find anyone capable of grinding tough yards or getting over on the GL. A big strong back in Detroit could easily score 10+ TDs.
Ronald Jones: New York Giants
I don't think Jones can handle the workload of Barkley or Guice. In New York, there are other backs to get touches but none them are good enough to threaten Jones from being the main guy. Eli, OBJ, Engram, Sheppard, Jones. That could have the makings of a pretty good NFL offense.
Nick Chubb: Washington
Thompson has his role but someone needs to be the grinder. Perine and Kelley are below average RBs and poor NFL athletes. Chubb is a 95th percentile athlete who could immediately re-imagine Washington's run game.
Rashaad Penny: Tampa Bay
Big opportunity, it's a great spot for any back. Penny has shown big plays and pass catching- he could do it all for Tampa.
Sony Michel: Broncos
Michel might be able to stay as efficient if given the bulk of the touches. He might not though. If he goes to Denver, he can be part of of a platoon with CJ or Booker. Sony will likely be the better and more talented part of platoon. If he has the goods, he will steal away a clear lead role from either of them.
Royce Freeman: Seahawks
That is job wide wide wide open. Freeman is big enough, fast enough and agile enough to get on the field in any role. If the line improves and offensive works, this could be a gold mine landing spot.
Kerryon Johnson: Dolphins
Nice opening. Gore gives him time to get ready, Drake can take the 3rd down/pass catching work for the short term. If/when he is ready, he will have a big role to work with.
Nyheim Hines: Patriots
They are need of offensive weapons and Hines can fly. I bet Bill could find a good use for him.
Barkley: Colts
High scoring offense (assuming Luck is ok) that can let him loose in every situation. 250 carries and 50 receptions is a sure thing.
Guice: Lions
Lions have a potent offense but haven't been able to find anyone capable of grinding tough yards or getting over on the GL. A big strong back in Detroit could easily score 10+ TDs.
Ronald Jones: New York Giants
I don't think Jones can handle the workload of Barkley or Guice. In New York, there are other backs to get touches but none them are good enough to threaten Jones from being the main guy. Eli, OBJ, Engram, Sheppard, Jones. That could have the makings of a pretty good NFL offense.
Nick Chubb: Washington
Thompson has his role but someone needs to be the grinder. Perine and Kelley are below average RBs and poor NFL athletes. Chubb is a 95th percentile athlete who could immediately re-imagine Washington's run game.
Rashaad Penny: Tampa Bay
Big opportunity, it's a great spot for any back. Penny has shown big plays and pass catching- he could do it all for Tampa.
Sony Michel: Broncos
Michel might be able to stay as efficient if given the bulk of the touches. He might not though. If he goes to Denver, he can be part of of a platoon with CJ or Booker. Sony will likely be the better and more talented part of platoon. If he has the goods, he will steal away a clear lead role from either of them.
Royce Freeman: Seahawks
That is job wide wide wide open. Freeman is big enough, fast enough and agile enough to get on the field in any role. If the line improves and offensive works, this could be a gold mine landing spot.
Kerryon Johnson: Dolphins
Nice opening. Gore gives him time to get ready, Drake can take the 3rd down/pass catching work for the short term. If/when he is ready, he will have a big role to work with.
Nyheim Hines: Patriots
They are need of offensive weapons and Hines can fly. I bet Bill could find a good use for him.
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Snorkelson
Footballguy
I’d add Indy, Houston, Bal to good landing spots due to the current depth charts. Carolina has a role up for grabs.
Boston
Footballguy
Excellent list...can not argue with any of it...as a Pats fan I have been eying Hines in a big way...I think he would be a nice fit with White-Burkhead-Hill (I am assuming Gilleslie doesn't make it)...could potentially give them a little dynamo out of the backfield...also, they can probably get him without using one of their first 4 picks which would be real nice...
Riffraff
Footballguy
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Seattle is interesting cause that defense is a disaster and a receiving back could do great things. But that line is still putrid.
-OZ-
Footballguy
That's a fantastic list.
The only thing I might suggest is adding the Panthers for a strong back available in the 3rd or later. Bo Scarborough. Hurts McCaffery a little but he's the ideal compliment.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
They need a depth spot and Mark Ingram is in the last year of his contract and will be 28 years old this season.-OZ- said:
So maybe the Saints try to hit 2 birds with one stone and not just add the depth RB they need for this year, but also Ingrams replacement for 2019 and the next few years.
I doubt they use a high pick on a RB but there are enough quality RB that even a 4th or 5th round RB may be interesting if drafted there.
az_prof
Footballguy
Why can't Kamara be the primary back after Ingram leaves and just add a depth guy behind him?
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I never said he can't.
The history of the Saints using 2 or sometimes even 3 or 4 different RB in the same game, or over the course of the season is something they have done a lot. I don't really expect that to change.
So either they keep Ingram and he maintains his role in the offense or they are likely adding another RB or even a committee of RB to replace that role if they do let Ingram walk after this season.
I think expecting Kamara to not be sharing opportunities with another RB would be a bad assumption, I think time share continues with Ingram and even after they move on from Ingram.
Unless Sean Payton is gone when Brees retires, then that would change things, but Payton has been using multiple RB consistently for a pretty long time now.
Just saying that I can see reasons why the destination might be considered neutral or yellow, If they let Ingram walk that opens up 200 or so opportunities for another RB even with Kamara having a good share of that pie.
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This is my thought as well unless the Colts move back from 6 due to, say, Buffalo trading up and they take Guice instead. As a 1.02 owner, I'd say that if the Colts take one of Guice, MIchel or Chubb, they are instantly the 1.02 and if they take anyone else in the first 3 rounds, they would be in the conversation at that spot. Obviously if they land Barkley, that would be their best situationJohnnyU said:
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Yep, and his history of that goes back even further than people think. I still remember when Ingram was drafted and people thought that Payton only used multiple RBs out of circumstance because he "had never had a running back good enough to carry the load" even though he had coached Deuce McAllister and Tiki Barber. Remember, Tiki was a committee back when Payton was the OC in New York, and was then used as a very effective workhorse literally as soon as Payton left.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Makes sense. Just looks odd when the saints duo is probably the best duo in the league.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Maybe based on the great ideas of previous posters I would add:
Bo Scarbough: Panthers
CMc probably won't touch the ball more than 200-220 times. That means there is another 180-200 touches available for a between the tackles power back. Bo is big and strong and tested as a better athlete than I expected. He has had issues with heath so being the lesser part of a platoon is probably his best fit. In Carolina, there would be room for GL TDs. Stewart scored 7 last year, 9 the year before.
John Kelly: Saints
He tested so poorly, is so small, has such a limited amount of college touches and had such a low YPC that I have to question whether he has much future in the NFL. He makes sense as a potential late round replacement for Ingram. He runs hard, has some pass catching chops. I could see his best case scenario would be an Ingram like role.
Bo Scarbough: Panthers
CMc probably won't touch the ball more than 200-220 times. That means there is another 180-200 touches available for a between the tackles power back. Bo is big and strong and tested as a better athlete than I expected. He has had issues with heath so being the lesser part of a platoon is probably his best fit. In Carolina, there would be room for GL TDs. Stewart scored 7 last year, 9 the year before.
John Kelly: Saints
He tested so poorly, is so small, has such a limited amount of college touches and had such a low YPC that I have to question whether he has much future in the NFL. He makes sense as a potential late round replacement for Ingram. He runs hard, has some pass catching chops. I could see his best case scenario would be an Ingram like role.
saintfool
Dead sexy
You seem to rake a dim view of Drake. He looked pretty damn good once he took over the starting duties. Over that 5 game span, he ran for more than 4.4. in every game. Next gen stats make him a smart, productive RB that is hard to tackle. I'd be suspicious of him if it were only 3 games maybe but 5 is a decent stretch to gauge effectiveness. I think the only concern is how he holds up over a full season with 20-ish touches a game. I don't know your feelings about Johnson but you seem more bullish on him in this situation.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I might be too low on Drake. Here are my reasons why I am hesitant to love him:
- seems to get hurt a lot
- 5 game sample size at the end of the year when he is fresh and defenders have been playing a grueling year doesn't mean much to me. It is pretty common for RBs to have strong 2nd halves of years, get fantasy hype and then struggle in the future. CJ Anderson is the ultimate poster boy.
- the coaching staff was hesitant to play Drake until they had nobody left
Also, I did preface it with "if". I am not a big Kerryon fan, but I think his potential to be a lead back is higher than Drake. So if Kerryon is the player that his fans think he is, that player can beat out Drake for the lead role.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Ronald Jones, John Kelly and Mark Walton all should be notated as having injuries during combine/pro day season. It has effected their stock with me but I'm not going to take any of them off my radar. If they land in a good to great situation they have enough productivity to suggest some amount of success at the next level.
-OZ-
Footballguy
a less productive, less impressive Duke Johnson? Sounds like waiver fodder in most leagues.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I agree but I just listened a podcast where they were rating him as a 2nd round nfl pick. I guess that means there is a chance he gets an opportunity somewhere. Maybe he can back up Gordon?
Sounds like waiver fodder in most leagues.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Those are all legitimate knocks. And it's concerning that they signed gore, because gore needs to put up real numbers to move up the all time yardage list and he must have felt the dolphins offered him the best opportunity to get them.
On the other hand, the dolphins were willing to move ajayi during the season, and that's a strong signal that they liked their remaining guys enough to be willing to roll with him. (It may also be a signal that ajayi is a serious pain in the ###). And drake - who was pretty highly regarded coming out - carried the whole offense as a rusher and receiver towards the end of the season. 108 touches (91 carries for 444 yards, 17 catches for 150 yards) with two touchdowns in his last five games. Before that he had 42 carries for 200 yards and 15 receptions for 89 yards and two total touchdowns in limited duty, so his 4.9 yards per carry carried over and he showed he can catch the ball pretty well.
I think if you're going to gamble on him, it needs to be at a discount that you might not get in some leagues. The dolphins could draft someone, and even if they don't they could use gore a lot, and even if they don't we don't know how drake would hold up over a full season. But if you already own him or can get him cheap, I'm cautiously optimistic that he'll be startable and maybe even have low end rb1 upside. With all the good backs coming out, I'd probably consider him a mid late first right now at best. I don't know if that constitutes loving him but I think he's got value if you're a gambler.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Interesting. I haven't dug deep enough to pay him much attention nor had I seen him that high in mocks. Who knows?
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Most people I have read or heard are down on Walton, but here is Daniel Jeremiah as an example of the hype for Walton:
“Not a first-round pick. That coffee’s a little too rich. He’ll be a top 50 pick and will be picked ahead of a lot of big-name backs we’ve talked about in this run up to the draft,” Jeremiah said. “We know the top five, six backs, but Mark Walton will sneak around a couple of them. … He’s a guy we’ve been talking about in that fourth-round range, but maybe he’ll shock us all and make it in the top 50.”
http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/college/acc/university-of-miami/article208142074.html
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Good or ideal spots:
Indy, Wash, NYG, Tampa, Oakland, Houston
Decent but not great spots:
Denver, Detroit, Carolina, Seattle, Baltimore, Miami
Indy, Wash, NYG, Tampa, Oakland, Houston
Decent but not great spots:
Denver, Detroit, Carolina, Seattle, Baltimore, Miami
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Dismattle
Footballguy
I find it hard to believe that some/most believe Seattle is a good landing spot I believe Beast mode made their running game relevant But now continued offensive line woes combined with what may be a questionable pass defense Are you guys expecting a bell cow role from a Rookie
Indy and Tampa are the premium landing spots for immediate and long term outlook.
Pittsburgh is a great landing spot if you like a RB you might not normally get to draft, especially if you can afford to sit on him a year if need be.
I view Redskins and Carolina as the two worst spots but in general I don't see a lot of attractive landing spots for 2018 value.
Pittsburgh is a great landing spot if you like a RB you might not normally get to draft, especially if you can afford to sit on him a year if need be.
I view Redskins and Carolina as the two worst spots but in general I don't see a lot of attractive landing spots for 2018 value.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I tend to agree. I put them on my decent but not great list because of the opportunity that exists there. I wouldn't expect it to be a bellcow role for a rookie, but it is certainly possible. Line sucks and defense is trending down fast. But I'd rather have the RB they draft highish than a backup RB drafted behind an established starter.
Seconded. I think that a 3 down back would be intriguing because I could see Seattle's offense eventually evolving to have a heavy dose of check downing to the RB to compensate for the bad offensive line. Also, I think/hope that Seattle's offensive line problems were glaringly and painfully apparent last seasona and that, in addition to picking an RB, they would shore up that O-line with some picks.
cobalt_27
Footballguy
I don’t see Washington as good or ideal. At minimum, already have an active 3rd down back who will get a lot of reps. Effect of Alex Smith remains to be seen, but certainly not a guy threatening to stretch defenses.
Would downgrade Baltimore and Carolina to “bad” spots, as well, particularly if you’re hoping for PPR/receiving points from your RB.
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Anybody Tampa drafts in the first 3 rounds is probably the unquestioned starter. Their offense is one with potential based on a QB with potential, a #1 receiver who oozes potential and an offensive line that is halfway decent...FreeBaGeL said:
As somone who lives in Tampa, nobody here subscribes to that narrative. Evans is great but he was extremely knucle-headed last year, probably a down year but still wasn't what you wanted to see. The offensive line is ok, they made guys like Rodgers and Barber look ok so there is hope. Winston on the other hand looks like hot garbage a good portion of the time. He's the second coming of Jay Cutler. You know, except people hate Cutler for his stupid face and bad attitude, nevermind that Jameis had a college career full of character issues and hasn't been good on the field (his first pass in the NFL was a pick 6 for heaven's sake).
Indy, I think people are just assuming health with Luck. Dangerous but that's how we have to play it for now. Also hope that the new regime will prioritize blocking for Luck as opposed to putting 5 garbage cans in front of him and hoping they get in the defenders' way. Luck has shown in the past that he loves him his air backs and loves throwing them touchdowns.
fightingillini
Footballguy
They do, but it wouldn't be a great spot for fantasy. McCaffrey is the pass catching back and Cam loves to vulture TDs. Stewart never had a ton of upside, and he was a good back when he was on the field.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Chicago could be a good spot...
bostonfred
Footballguy
Rumors of them moving on from Howard, new offense, Cohen not built for big volume. I don't think they have to draft someone but if they use real draft capital on a back I expect it would be wth the intent of finding a feature guy
bostonfred
Footballguy
They pick at 1.6 and could be looking at Nelson then take a back at 36 or 67 where almost everyone is slotted to go but Barkley.
-OZ-
Footballguy
I already mentioned one. Bo Scarborough. Really any back who's a better power runner and not expected to be a big part of the short passing game.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Interesting. I think Howard and Cohen are going to be among the best combos this year. Maybe not Ingram Kamara but close.
I did not see your previous mention. I could see that with a RB like him, where it gives some value to someone who otherwise has close to none. But for me I'm pretty sure if Carolina drafts a two RB I won't be the one drafting him, someone always covets this kind of RB more then me in drafts.
Plus opportunity, Colts have no one of consequence at RB (and I'm not counting Mack.) If a geriatric Frank Gore can almost put up 1K rushing with Jacoby under center, then imagine a solid rookie with Luck in there.
