Ideal Rookie RB Landing Spots (1 Viewer)

[bostonfred]

Interesting. I think Howard and Cohen are going to be among the best combos this year. Maybe not Ingram Kamara but close.

Howard is in a situation a lot like Spencer ware was this time last year.  He's the incumbent, and a decent rb, but coming off an up and down year and has a sporadically useful receiving back next to him. I would not be shocked to see Chicago draft a 3 down back with better hands than Howard as they try to replicate the kc offense in Chicago.  Nether Howard nor Cohen are cut out to be their Kareem hunt

 

[JohnnyU]

Plus opportunity, Colts have no one of consequence at RB (and I'm not counting Mack.) If a geriatric Frank Gore can almost put up 1K rushing with Jacoby under center, then imagine a solid rookie with Luck in there.

Plus, the left side of the line isn't bad and center is pretty damn good.  Yes, they need some help on the right side, but given the potential of the Colts' offense if Luck plays and the draft picks they have, investing in a Colts running back drafted in the 1st or 2nd round has a lot of upside.  Also, already mentioned, not much on the current roster for RBs.

 

[IHEARTFF]

Colts going with Chubb, Freeman or Penny to pair with Mack seems like a good fit. I would expect a good decision as Ballard seems competent. 

 

[Snorkelson]

I did not see your previous mention. I could see that with a RB like him, where it gives some value to someone who otherwise has close to none.  But for me I'm pretty sure if Carolina drafts a two RB I won't be the one drafting him, someone always covets this kind of RB more then me in drafts.

Royce freeman would be another guy that would fit in carolina.

 

[JohnnyU]

Colts going with Chubb, Freeman or Penny to pair with Mack seems like a good fit. I would expect a good decision as Ballard seems competent. 

I'm hearing Michel is strong possibility for the Colts in rd 2.  They could get Freeman or Penny on day 3 IMO.   Not sure how I feel about Chubb, but I do know I like Michel more.

 

[steelers1080]

If the Steelers genuinely think Bell won't sign this year or next, they could definitely go RB in the 2nd if talent falls to them. Doubt it happens in the first.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Howard is in a situation a lot like Spencer ware was this time last year.  He's the incumbent, and a decent rb, but coming off an up and down year and has a sporadically useful receiving back next to him. I would not be shocked to see Chicago draft a 3 down back with better hands than Howard as they try to replicate the kc offense in Chicago.  Nether Howard nor Cohen are cut out to be their Kareem hunt

Jordan Howard has 2,433 and 15 TDs rushing and 52 receptions for 423 yards and a TD in his first two years in the league. He showed a lot more than Ware ever did.

I would never say never when it comes to the NFL draft but I don't think the Bears need a "Kareem Hunt" necessarily and would likely not use an early pick at the position.

It's very possible that only 2-3 RBs in this draft class ever put up back to back seasons like Howard just did.

 

[Bojang0301]

I think bad situations should also be discussed so here are some contracts of stud RB’s if players land in a bad situation:

Ezekiel Elliot, Dallas: 2 years on rookie contract plus 5th year option. 

Dalvin Cook, Minnesota: 3 years left on rookie deal.

Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram, New Orleans: Kamara has 3 years left on rookie deal. Ingram has 1 year left. Potential value on RBBC w/ Kamara in ‘19.

Le’veon Bell, Pittsburgh: 1 year deal on Franchise tag. Potential value for ‘18 or ‘19.

Todd Gurley, LAR: 2 years left on rookie deal.

Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville: 3 years left on rookie deal plus 5th year option.

David Johnson, Arizona: 1 year left on rookie contract. 

Joe Mixon, Cincinnati: 3 years left on rookie deal. 

Kareem Hunt, KC: 3 years left on rookie deal.

Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis, Tennessee: Henry 2 years left on rookie deal, Lewis 4 year deal with a dead cap hit after year 2.

Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen: Howard 2 years left on rookie deal, Cohen 3 years left on rookie deal.

Christian McCaffrey, Carolina: 3 years left on rookie deal plus 5th year option.

Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman: Freeman 5 years left, 9m dead cap in ‘19 (6m in ‘20), Coleman 1 year left on rookie deal.

Some murky but not terrible situations:

Jay Ajayi, Philadelphia: 1 year left on rookie deal.

Isaiah Crowell, NYJ: 3 year contract, $2m dead cap hit after year 1.

LeSean McCoy, Buffalo: 2 years left on extention. 5.25m dead cap hit in ‘18, 2.625m dead cap hit in ‘19.

Marshawn Lynch and Doug Martin: 1 year deals for both. 

CJ Anderson, Denver: 2 years left on contract, no cap hit if cut.

Kenyan Drake, Miami: 2 years left on rookie contract. 

Lamar Miller and D’onte Foreman, Houston: Miller 2 years left on contract w/ $2m dead cap hit if cut this year, Foreman 3 years left on rookie deal.

Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson, Cleveland: Hyde 3 year contract with 2.3m dead cap hit in ‘19, Johnson 1 year left on rookie deal.

Jerick McKinnon, San Francisco: 4 year contract, 1.5m dead cap hit in ‘19

 

[bostonfred]

Jordan Howard has 2,433 and 15 TDs rushing and 52 receptions for 423 yards and a TD in his first two years in the league. He showed a lot more than Ware ever did.

I would never say never when it comes to the NFL draft but I don't think the Bears need a "Kareem Hunt" necessarily and would likely not use an early pick at the position.

It's very possible that only 2-3 RBs in this draft class ever put up back to back seasons like Howard just did.

I'm not going to argue with that.  I'm just talking about the rumors.

https://www.windycitygridiron.com/2018/4/6/17206744/chicago-bears-jordan-howard-dilemma-instagram-matt-nagy-trade-kalen-ballage-wcg-radio-nfl-draft-2018

Howard took references to the bears off his Instagram page them added them back recently

https://bearswire.usatoday.com/2018/04/08/jordan-howard-puts-bears-pictures-back-on-instagram/

I don't know what they plan to do, but if they do decide to move on from Howard they'd be an interesting landing spot. 

But to your point, spencer ware had 1370 yards and 5 touchdowns then they drafted kareem hunt. Mcfaddem had 1417 yards and they drafted Elliot. Zac Stacy had 1114 yards and 8 touchdowns as a rookie, then Tre Mason took over, and then they still drafted Gurley.  The list of successful running backs who've lost their job the next year is pretty long if you want me to keep going m

 

[gabes1919]

They pick at 1.6 and could be looking at Nelson then take a back at 36 or 67 where almost everyone is slotted to go but Barkley. 

They also may have the opportunity to trade back if the Giants or Denver don't take a QB. In that case, I could see them grabbing both of the Bills first rounders, thus letting them grab a lineman and some help on defense or Guice.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I'm not going to argue with that.  I'm just talking about the rumors.

https://www.windycitygridiron.com/2018/4/6/17206744/chicago-bears-jordan-howard-dilemma-instagram-matt-nagy-trade-kalen-ballage-wcg-radio-nfl-draft-2018

Howard took references to the bears off his Instagram page them added them back recently

https://bearswire.usatoday.com/2018/04/08/jordan-howard-puts-bears-pictures-back-on-instagram/

I don't know what they plan to do, but if they do decide to move on from Howard they'd be an interesting landing spot. 

But to your point, spencer ware had 1370 yards and 5 touchdowns then they drafted kareem hunt. Mcfaddem had 1417 yards and they drafted Elliot. Zac Stacy had 1114 yards and 8 touchdowns as a rookie, then Tre Mason took over, and then they still drafted Gurley.  The list of successful running backs who've lost their job the next year is pretty long if you want me to keep going m

Sure I get that guys get replaced - but we could also list players that started their careers in a productive matter and did not get replaced as well.

I do not think Howard is some elite talent but his rookie season was one of the better ones in NFL history as far as rushing yards go. I think we all tend to over-rate the rookie RB class each season and think they will all be NFL stars, when the odds are that likely only 2-4 will have long productive NFL careers and maybe 1-3 others will have a season or two.

If the Bears do release or trade Howard of course it would be a great landing spot - but right now it does not appear to be one. If they end up taking a RB in round 4 or 5, I'm sure backers of that guy will think he'll be the man, but the odds are he will be depth, at best.

I also think Cohen is going to make some noise this season, so he'd be an obstacle to a rookie as well. The Bears may want a complete back but a Howard-Cohen tandem is a pretty decent alternative.

 

[Dismattle]

Sure I get that guys get replaced - but we could also list players that started their careers in a productive matter and did not get replaced as well.

I do not think Howard is some elite talent but his rookie season was one of the better ones in NFL history as far as rushing yards go. I think we all tend to over-rate the rookie RB class each season and think they will all be NFL stars, when the odds are that likely only 2-4 will have long productive NFL careers and maybe 1-3 others will have a season or two.

If the Bears do release or trade Howard of course it would be a great landing spot - but right now it does not appear to be one. If they end up taking a RB in round 4 or 5, I'm sure backers of that guy will think he'll be the man, but the odds are he will be depth, at best.

I also think Cohen is going to make some noise this season, so he'd be an obstacle to a rookie as well. The Bears may want a complete back but a Howard-Cohen tandem is a pretty decent alternative.

I doubt ya really care to flesh this out more   But IF DaBears were to acquire a back in the early rounds   Wouldn't it mean not only keeping Howard (safety valve for injuries) but also meaningful snaps to stay in "game shape"  Guess it could mean Deja vu for Earth Wind n' Fire  Doubt it feels like that when your setting your lineup for some time  I do appreciate the posts though  I mean Chicago did trade Olsen so the square in a round hole conversation has merit  Bottom line maybe you guys are both right!  I mean I'm a bit of a Howard fan(atic) 

 

[bostonfred]

The bears had a coach who loved to run and Howard did a great job running. 

Then they changed coaches and they added a guy who can catch and Howard did a good job running and the guy who can catch did a good job catching. 

Then they changed coordinators to a guy from kc where they ask the running back to run a lot and catch a lot. Howard can run a lot but can't catch. Cohen can catch but he can't run a lot. 

Then Howard's name started to come up in trade rumors and he took the bears stuff off his Instagram account. 

I'm not saying he's bad I'm saying they could definitely draft a new feature rb in this draft and if they did I wouldn't be surprised to see that guy take over even though Howard had been good. 

 

[bostonfred]

Devonta Freeman was the former rb1 overall in fantasy under Shanahan. Signed to huge extension  Changes coaches, had a down year.  Total yards go from 1600, 1500, to under 1200 last year.  Touchdowns from 14, to 13, to 8 last year.  Receptions 73, 54 to 36 last year. 

Carlos Hyde was a pretty good and successful back with some injury history playing for bad teams.  Plays with Shanahan last year and catches most passes of his career, allowed to walk un free agency, and the new guy expected to be the 49ers feature back hadn't been that good in his previous system. 

Hunt shows up in kc and (with the incumbent but misfit ware injured)  immediately becomes a workhorse used to run and catch a ton. 

Matt nagy was offensive coordinator with kc the last two years and qb coach the three years before that, working with Jamaal Charles and Kareem Hunt who can both run and catch a ton. He is probably looking for someone who can run and catch a ton. That's not Howard or Cohen. 

They might be able to cobble together a committee with those two but when Howard is in they won't be passing much to him and when Cohen is in they won't be running him 20 times a game.  

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Devonta Freeman was the former rb1 overall in fantasy under Shanahan. Signed to huge extension  Changes coaches, had a down year.  Total yards go from 1600, 1500, to under 1200 last year.  Touchdowns from 14, to 13, to 8 last year.  Receptions 73, 54 to 36 last year. 

Carlos Hyde was a pretty good and successful back with some injury history playing for bad teams.  Plays with Shanahan last year and catches most passes of his career, allowed to walk un free agency, and the new guy expected to be the 49ers feature back hadn't been that good in his previous system. 

Hunt shows up in kc and (with the incumbent but misfit ware injured)  immediately becomes a workhorse used to run and catch a ton. 

Matt nagy was offensive coordinator with kc the last two years and qb coach the three years before that, working with Jamaal Charles and Kareem Hunt who can both run and catch a ton. He is probably looking for someone who can run and catch a ton. That's not Howard or Cohen. 

They might be able to cobble together a committee with those two but when Howard is in they won't be passing much to him and when Cohen is in they won't be running him 20 times a game.  

Your point is fair and Freeman was definitely hurt by the change in coordinators, but it is being a bit over-represented a bit here because Freeman was injured last year.

He essentially only played 13 games last year (got hurt on the 2nd carry of one game and then missed the next two).  Over 16 games his totals project out to 1454 yards, 44 receptions, and 10 TDs which is still a downtick from the year before but not as large as first implied.

 

[gabes1919]

Your point is fair and Freeman was definitely hurt by the change in coordinators, but it is being a bit over-represented a bit here because Freeman was injured last year.

He essentially only played 13 games last year (got hurt on the 2nd carry of one game and then missed the next two).  Over 16 games his totals project out to 1454 yards, 44 receptions, and 10 TDs which is still a downtick from the year before but not as large as first implied.

This. Especially in a case where the offense as a whole suffered.

Nagy was OC 2 years in KC and let's be honest, he ran Reid's system and not his own. We can't make those statements about his RB preferences yet. Besides, if he's a good coach, he is likely going to make use of his high quality players that are on cheap contracts aka Howard and Cohen. You call for Howard to be a Freeman like casualty of coaching change but I don't see why he can't be a beneficiery a la Todd Gurley going from Fisher to Mcvay. Yes Gurley is a 3 down capable back but it doesn't cahnge that he broke out as a rusher as a rookie, had a down second year under a stale and crumby offense (know anything about that type of thing John Fox?), and had a resurgence as a rusher to be even better than his rookie year under a new system.

 

[bostonfred]

This. Especially in a case where the offense as a whole suffered.

Nagy was OC 2 years in KC and let's be honest, he ran Reid's system and not his own. We can't make those statements about his RB preferences yet. Besides, if he's a good coach, he is likely going to make use of his high quality players that are on cheap contracts aka Howard and Cohen. You call for Howard to be a Freeman like casualty of coaching change but I don't see why he can't be a beneficiery a la Todd Gurley going from Fisher to Mcvay. Yes Gurley is a 3 down capable back but it doesn't cahnge that he broke out as a rusher as a rookie, had a down second year under a stale and crumby offense (know anything about that type of thing John Fox?), and had a resurgence as a rusher to be even better than his rookie year under a new system.

I think you're talking to me.

I agree that Howard could have a better year this year if he is the starter. 

I agree that we don't know what Nagy will do.

I also agree with bagel that Freeman wasn't that bad. 

I am not saying Howard will be gone. 

I am saying that if the bears draft a three down back with an early pick then it would be a good landing spot because spending an early pick on a running back would be a signal that they intend to make a change that has already been rumored, and the main reason they might do that is because they intend to use one guy as a three down back 

But also very, very possible that they don't change a thing and Howard does well, or that they trade Howard and he does well somewhere else.  I have no negativity about Howard specifically. 

 

[barackdhouse]

I am saying that if the bears draft a three down back with an early pick

 the main reason they might do that is because they intend to use one guy as a three down back.

I'm wondering more and more if this is a larger trend across the NFL. The idea of having a true 3 down back as your starter. It's not exactly a new idea. Some of the RBBCs have been successful but it is surely a disadvantage if the defense knows you're running/throwing on a given play because of which RB is in. Overgeneralization sure, because some RBBCs have multidimensional guys. 

I don't know that the Bears will or won't draft someone to be a workhorse but I think there are going to be at least a couple surprise spots where a 3 down rookie takes over a backfield. 

 

[gabes1919]

I think you're talking to me.

I agree that Howard could have a better year this year if he is the starter. 

I agree that we don't know what Nagy will do.

I also agree with bagel that Freeman wasn't that bad. 

I am not saying Howard will be gone. 

I am saying that if the bears draft a three down back with an early pick then it would be a good landing spot because spending an early pick on a running back would be a signal that they intend to make a change that has already been rumored, and the main reason they might do that is because they intend to use one guy as a three down back 

But also very, very possible that they don't change a thing and Howard does well, or that they trade Howard and he does well somewhere else.  I have no negativity about Howard specifically. 

I see. I misunderstood you. In that case, you are correct. Howard had a down year and he and Cohen do not have a high draft pedigree or contract to give them weight. That said, I think it would be dumb of the Bears to do that without even seeing if their current RB situation is salvageable.

Also it's the Bears, they traded 2 3rds and a 4th to move up one pick to draft a guy that nobody was trading up for. Intelligence does not run rampant in that organization.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I think I agree with @bostonfred that Chicago would be a good landing spot if they used a pick on day 1 or 2 on a RB.  Especially if Howard was traded on top of that.  They certainly look like an offense on the rise.  Lots of good weapons and a coach that looks like he prefers a clear lead back.

On the flipside, @gabes1919 makes a great point that we don't really know what Nagy prefers as the last two years in KC were much more likely Nagy running Reid's system than Reid running Nagy's.  When Hunt was drafted in the 3rd round last year I don't recall anyone saying they were excited about it because he was going to be Matt Nagy's running back.  It was all chatter and excitement over him being Reid's back, and the history Reid has with fantasy RBs.

On top of that we had the Ware injury last year so we have no idea how they actually planned to use Hunt/Ware.  For all we know if Ware hadn't gotten hurt we'd be sitting here talking about how Nagy loves to have two guys split the load evenly when their #2 option is better than Charcandrick West.

And lastly, of course, while the Bears offense looks like one headed in the right direction, we've seen plenty of times when that preseason hope doesn't translate to in season success.  Lots of risk that Trubisky doesn't take a big step forward or that the offense doesn't click.

So high risk, high reward if they were to grab a back early.  That fits my aggressive fantasy style so I would be moderately happy with the landing spot, but I could see how more conservative FFers would shy away from it.  There isn't really a perfect landing spot this year that will result in a clear lead back on a good offense.  All of them have a big risk with either an unwillingness to commit to a lead guy (Seattle) or a really bad offense (NYG, Indy if Luck isn't healthy, Baltimore, Tampa).  I guess Chicago would be as good as any.