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IDP Dynasty Rankings updated (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Sigmund Bloom
- Start date
dirtyhalos
capital letter hater!
PatsWillWin
Footballguy
Hi Sigmunda.
I was wondering if you could explain for me the drop in Nick Barnett's ranking. I'm aware he has not been putting up big numbers through 3 weeks, is there a trend here that will affect him long-term?
Thanks a lot.
I was wondering if you could explain for me the drop in Nick Barnett's ranking. I'm aware he has not been putting up big numbers through 3 weeks, is there a trend here that will affect him long-term?
Thanks a lot.
I think he's been racking up tackles because he's had no one of consequence beating him to the ball at the OLB positions. Now that A.J. Hawk is "getting it", Barnett is not the default guy to get the tackles when the play gets to the second level. Also, Abdul Hodge is eventually going to play his way into the MLB position, I think he works much better there than at SLB... Barnett's long term future is cloudy in my crystal ball.
PatsWillWin
Footballguy
Thanks for the response - good stuff. If you wouldn't mind, I'm wondering what you think of Gerald Hayes' long-term potential.
-OZ-
Footballguy
I don't want to get too much into it, as it's a subscriber area, but a few questions.
Demarco Ryans - I know, he's been great, but this seems very high for a rookie who has played 3 games. Same could almost be said for Hawk and Sims, but at least IMO, they're more justified (and lower)
Aaron Schobel - I know (at least I think I know) he'll improve, but he hasn't shown enough to be this high right now. I'd prefer Grant, Freeney, and Justin Smith (who seems low to me)
Tamba Hali - nice to see him get some recognition. I forget his pre-season ranking, but I love this kid. This seems about right for now, I expect him to climb next year.
Chris Hope - really? For this year I can see it, but long term, do you expect him to continue to peform at this level?
Demarco Ryans - I know, he's been great, but this seems very high for a rookie who has played 3 games. Same could almost be said for Hawk and Sims, but at least IMO, they're more justified (and lower)
Aaron Schobel - I know (at least I think I know) he'll improve, but he hasn't shown enough to be this high right now. I'd prefer Grant, Freeney, and Justin Smith (who seems low to me)
Tamba Hali - nice to see him get some recognition. I forget his pre-season ranking, but I love this kid. This seems about right for now, I expect him to climb next year.
Chris Hope - really? For this year I can see it, but long term, do you expect him to continue to peform at this level?
Julian Peterson's ranking surprised me a little. Even in 2003 when he finished with his highest ranking as the 26th LB (FBG ranking) he only had 68 tackles. His production as a fantasy player seems to be too reliant on big plays. Doesn't this tend to make him a little inconsistant? This past week against the Giants he only managed 1 tackle and 1 assist during a game when his ability to blitz should have been on full display. I realize he is a VERY good NFL player, but do you really think that will translate into fantasy success worthy of being in the top 60 overall (top 30 LB)?
Thoughts?
Thoughts?
radiohead417
Footballguy
I certainly think it's a mistake to not have Adrian Wilson as the top DB. I love Polamalu, but I'll take Adrian Wilson every day over him.
I think he can settle in as a top 30 LB, in the vicinity of guys such as Lemar Marshall and Gary Brackett, if he can stay healthy. He's a good run stuffer, but his lack of outstanding big play ability and durability record would keep him from ranking too much higher.
Ryans looks like the real deal to me. It also helps that the Texans arent going anywhere, presenting him with all kinds of chances to rack up tackles in garbage time - remember the tackle numbers foreman and sharper put up on this team, even Dashon Polk last year?Schobel has been top 10 each of the last 3 years - so I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt for now. A couple more games where he comes up empty, and he'll fall out of the top 20. Grant is below Schobel only because his chances of being a sack artist are lower now, lining up inside on some downs. Freeney just hasn't looked like himself yet, and he's not startable until further notice, hence his ranking. Smith is low only because of the impending switch to the 3-4 in 07 in Cincy that I've heard a lot about.Hali
looks like his ceaseless motor will get him a lot of tackles.Hope - I feel the DBs are packed so close once you get out of the top 5-7 that I put a *lot* of weight in their prospects for this year. Hope is the main tackling presence in the secondary of a very weak team, which spells top 10 production. He was 25th last year playing centerfield for the Steelers - so you know there's something there, this is not just based on getting tackles by default. Long term, I think about DB20 is downside, so Im comfortable with him where is he is at.
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I see Peterson as a solid LB3 who will fluctuate more than the other members of that tier. I have bumped him up mainly because he looks completely healthy and because Seattle's team will be playing from ahead a lot, giving him more chances to rack up those big plays. You will endure some down weeks like last week, but I have him back at the value he had pre-achilles tear in SF.
That's fair. Honestly I could make a good argument for any of the top 3 at #1. I put Polamalu #1 because he can make big plays in all facets of the game, and he is obsessed with scoring when he gets the ball in his hands, but his foundation of tackles is probably not quite as strong as Wilson's, and he's banged up right now. I might be letting my strong feeling that he is the #1 talent at DB have a little too much weight in my analysis.
PatsWillWin
Footballguy
Is it time to get rid of Dan Morgan?
pretender
Footballguy
As a homer - Collins is doing great. He has been everywhere and always around the ball. I would go after him. I know you're asking Sigmund but thought I would throw in my 2 cents. I am also interested in what he has to say about Williams as I own Williams.
Listen to the pretender. Collins is the real deal and a DB1 in any format. The rest are roster fodder, except Williams, who can't stay healthy.
In leagues where you start 2 LBs, yes. I would hold him in deeper leagues and see if he's got anything left.
PatsWillWin
Footballguy
Sorry - I meant in a dynasty league. I think I may try to see what I can get for him, and if I can get anything just dump him.
Tick
Footballguy
What do you mean by that? Ryans was rated even to Sims by Croyle and near him in almost all rankings, and was taken with the first pick of the second round. Talent-wise, he's on a par with the top three guys. Situation-wise, he got the best spot of anyone.
Mootej
Footballguy
Hope you're right. Dropped Schobel to pick up Hope. Dropped Hope to pick up Ryans. I just hope that the Miami offense can stay on the field long enough for him to get some points.
-OZ-
Footballguy
basically 7 and 8 spots lower makes them more in line with what I was thinking. I really don't consider Ryans on par talent-wise with Hawk or Sims. Situation does help a lot, but not enough IMO to rank him 7 spots higher. Just my opinion of course.
I think thats a fair position - Ryans doesn't have the explosive physical attributes of Hawk or Sims, and therefore just can't make some of the insane big plays they'll make over the course of their careers. But I submit for you the case of London Fletcher(-Baker) - he lacks explosive talent, but has top notch instincts in the middle to flow to the play (sound like anyone?), and he's been a perennial top 10 LB. It also helps that Texans will be a bottom-dweller for a while.
Obviously you didn't see Alabama play over the last 4 years. Demeco (Not Demarco...) was the SEC Defensive Player of the Year and was widely regarded as the best player in the league last year. Many thought he would be a top 10 pick before the combine. His draft position is just the latest example of NFL teams putting too much weight on comine ###'s. He is fast, intuitive, brilliant, and competitive. He has the tools, makeup, and drive to be truely great.
Chaos Commish
Footballguy
This is false. I don't want to get into a long explanation, but Ryans excelled at the Combine. He was impressive. There was chatter that he would time slow and hurt himself, but it never materialized. The move to the middle has made him a potential IDP stud for years to come.
While Demeco didn't do poorly at the combine, his measureables fell short of others such as Hawk and Greenway. He performed better at the combine than at Bama's Pro Day, but his size and 40 times (4.6-4.7 at pro day) are the reasons he fell to the second round.I agree that the move to the middle will make him a great player in FANTASY for years to come, but scouts missed his ACTUAL value, whether it be on the inside or outside, because of his measureables. I probably should have qulaified my statement a bit more and said that scouts, and the NFL in general, put too much empahsis on measureables versus performance on the field. In Demeco's case it was easy. Anyone new to SEC football could have turned on any Bama game over the past 2 years and seen that #35 was in on almost every play.
Chaos Commish
Footballguy
No biggie. Ryans eventually went a little higher than expected. Most mocks had him in the middle of the 2nd for the last couple weeks of last April. I predicted him to be a first round surprise. I guess I only voiced disagreement because I get tired of people pointing out scouting mistakes based on measureables (again no biggie, just a pet peeve). For every mistake there's 100 correct calls. Measureables are not overemphasized, they are necessary. And speed burning weight lifting freaks go undrafted for being bad football players in every draft too. I can't look back at last year's first round and pick a bunch of players DeMeco absolutely should have gone ahead of. I can pick a few (but not without controversy). It wasn't an egregious oversight. It was a deep draft and teams addressed needs removed from LB early... which is sort of typical considering he ended up at MLB. Look at Lofa. Same thing. Man, do I wish DeMeco was a Cowboy though. I really hated the Carpenter pick. Ryans would be sweet inside of Ware.Thanks for the thoughtful reply. I actually agree with you for the most part regarding measureables and scoutinig. However, I believe that because its easier to rely on a stopwatch than film, players like Demeco and Zach Thomas are often overlooked.IMO with Demeco's skill set, intelligence, and intangibles he was a slam dunk to be a star in the league and most teams missed it.
bump
PatsWillWin
Footballguy
Bump for some more Dynasty Ranking suggestion.
Both of my teams in my big dynasty leagues managed to get the bye weeks, so I'm taking this time to take an early look at the off-season with respect to my IDP's. I looked over the updated dynasty rankings and I had a few questions for Bloom or for anyone else who wouldn't mind pitching in some thoughts.
1. Michael Boley. I noticed he didn't crack the LB rankings at all, I was wondering if there's a specific reason for this that I'm not aware of. Does he not have good job security? I know he's been inconsistent as of late, so maybe it's just as simple as that.
2. Shawn Merrimen. He's ranked #17 right now, and basically I'm just wondering what his ceiling is. Is he a guy that can be a top 5 fantasy scorer? I'm thinking because of the scheme he plays in, he may not be able to be as outstanding a fantasy player as he is an NFL player. Does this have any merit to it?
(I don't want to turn this into a Coach's Corner, but I'm asking because my dynasty leagues are contract leagues, and in one of them, the Merrimen owner somehow let his contract expire and he'll be a restricted free agent in the off-season. I need to rebuild my LB group).
3. Brandon Moore. Obviously he's ranked pretty well so you must like him, but I'm just wondering about his long-term job security. He's been great this year since he's gotten the chance to play, and I'm interested in knowing how that might carry over into next season.
3a. Sorta same question about Gerald Hayes.
While this will probably be covered in off-season material, I'd be interested in hearing any IDP "sleeper" type guys as far as IDP dynasty leagues are concerned. Anyone who might be undervalued at this point who is a good buy low.
General question - is there an impact LB in next year's draft comparable to AJ Hawk?
I know some of these questions are very specific to my team, but I think that it's a good idea generally to bump this thread to get some dynasty ranking talk in as a good compliment to the polls going on right now.
Both of my teams in my big dynasty leagues managed to get the bye weeks, so I'm taking this time to take an early look at the off-season with respect to my IDP's. I looked over the updated dynasty rankings and I had a few questions for Bloom or for anyone else who wouldn't mind pitching in some thoughts.
1. Michael Boley. I noticed he didn't crack the LB rankings at all, I was wondering if there's a specific reason for this that I'm not aware of. Does he not have good job security? I know he's been inconsistent as of late, so maybe it's just as simple as that.
2. Shawn Merrimen. He's ranked #17 right now, and basically I'm just wondering what his ceiling is. Is he a guy that can be a top 5 fantasy scorer? I'm thinking because of the scheme he plays in, he may not be able to be as outstanding a fantasy player as he is an NFL player. Does this have any merit to it?
(I don't want to turn this into a Coach's Corner, but I'm asking because my dynasty leagues are contract leagues, and in one of them, the Merrimen owner somehow let his contract expire and he'll be a restricted free agent in the off-season. I need to rebuild my LB group).
3. Brandon Moore. Obviously he's ranked pretty well so you must like him, but I'm just wondering about his long-term job security. He's been great this year since he's gotten the chance to play, and I'm interested in knowing how that might carry over into next season.
3a. Sorta same question about Gerald Hayes.
While this will probably be covered in off-season material, I'd be interested in hearing any IDP "sleeper" type guys as far as IDP dynasty leagues are concerned. Anyone who might be undervalued at this point who is a good buy low.
General question - is there an impact LB in next year's draft comparable to AJ Hawk?
I know some of these questions are very specific to my team, but I think that it's a good idea generally to bump this thread to get some dynasty ranking talk in as a good compliment to the polls going on right now.
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
I know Sig will be around to chime in here but I figured I'd add my thoughts as well.
Depending on other responsibilities, I'll try to make a bigger effort to add rankings at least monthly next season. I strongly favor the dynasty format for IDPs but for me rankings are a very relative thing. I don't like the absoluteness of designating Kirk Morrison 12 and Lance Briggs 15. I'd much rather discuss players in the abstract or in tiers of relative value. I find myself shuffling the rank lists around ad nauseum without ever being happy with the end product. Much like the weekly projection process, there may be a huge difference between 28 and 29 but no real difference in my mind between 12 and 21.
As far as FBG content goes, my column has been highlighting buy low candidates of those who may not be currently rostered by position over the past five weeks, the Roundtable has been visiting that subject fairly consistently, and Ear to the Ground and Dynasty Watch have regular features on it as well during the season. With Bloom on board and the growth of this Forum this year, I think the offseason content is likely to be very plentiful in 2007. And there is a huge thread highlighting up-and-coming LBs a page or so down that should help you as well.
With regard to the specific players you highlighted:
Michael Boley -- Boley should have very good job security. Unfortunately, it's on the strong side which severely limits his consistency. And, when Abraham and Kerney are fully healthy, his role in the nickel defense will drop significantly as well as Brooking and Williams are slightly better in coverage. While it's possible Boley could find a niche on the strong side as Thomas Davis and Marcus Washington have, he may not get the same opportunity they have leaving him prone to 1-0-0 stinkers.
Shawne Merriman -- Merriman's value is completely tied to your scoring system and/or your particular risk tolerance. You're absolutely correct in that Merriman, elite talent or not, is at the mercy of his scheme for production. Merriman clearly has high double digit sack potential, which makes him a top five player in big play scoring systems. But he doesn't look like he has the tackle potential I thought he might after his glowing offseason reports suggesting he'd greatly improved in run support and coverage. He may have, but projects to only a couple more than 60 solo tackles for the year (including 17 sacks). That'll still stick him in the top 30 for the season in standard leagues if he finishes off that projection but he's had three weeks with little in the tackle column so you'll have to be content taking the up-and-downs in neutral scoring systems.
Brandon Moore -- Just finished a conversation about Moore with a leaguemate. I don't think anyone can reliably say what will happen with Moore last year. The last four weeks look eerily like 2005 when Moore was moved inside in a full time role due to injuries. His owners were hoping for a big 2006. Then Moore got a minor ding and jerked between ILB and OLB all camp and for the first eight weeks of this year. The Niners will probably make a major effort to bring in players to shore up the run defense in a 3-4 front and where will that leave Moore? You'd like to think that his role won't change much -- inside on run downs and outside in the nickel. Maybe the Niners learned their lesson here, maybe not. It could be argued that he's a better all-around LB than Smith, Ulbrich, and Lawson right now. But his value is very dependent on the coming free agent period and draft.
Gerald Hayes -- Hayes has finally performed to his scouting report and stayed healthy. He's always been a favorite of Green and Prendergast, but those guys are almost certain to be in another city in 2007. He's got good job security, but a scheme change (possible) or position change (less likely) could hurt his value with a new coaching staff.
Keep an eye out for some of the off-season stuff. Like last year, I'm planning on columns highlighting new schemes, positions to watch entering free agency, then positions to watch before the draft.
Bloom, Chaos Commish among other Forum regulars are better sources for next year's talent right now. I probably won't feel confident discussing them until after the season. Any impact of next year's rookie crop won't be reliably known until after the draft, though. See D'Qwell Jackson and DeMeco Ryans. But you'd have to think guys like Patrick Willis, Paul Posluzny, and Laron Landry are fairly safe IDP bets. I'm sure there are others I'm missing.
Depending on other responsibilities, I'll try to make a bigger effort to add rankings at least monthly next season. I strongly favor the dynasty format for IDPs but for me rankings are a very relative thing. I don't like the absoluteness of designating Kirk Morrison 12 and Lance Briggs 15. I'd much rather discuss players in the abstract or in tiers of relative value. I find myself shuffling the rank lists around ad nauseum without ever being happy with the end product. Much like the weekly projection process, there may be a huge difference between 28 and 29 but no real difference in my mind between 12 and 21.
As far as FBG content goes, my column has been highlighting buy low candidates of those who may not be currently rostered by position over the past five weeks, the Roundtable has been visiting that subject fairly consistently, and Ear to the Ground and Dynasty Watch have regular features on it as well during the season. With Bloom on board and the growth of this Forum this year, I think the offseason content is likely to be very plentiful in 2007. And there is a huge thread highlighting up-and-coming LBs a page or so down that should help you as well.
With regard to the specific players you highlighted:
Michael Boley -- Boley should have very good job security. Unfortunately, it's on the strong side which severely limits his consistency. And, when Abraham and Kerney are fully healthy, his role in the nickel defense will drop significantly as well as Brooking and Williams are slightly better in coverage. While it's possible Boley could find a niche on the strong side as Thomas Davis and Marcus Washington have, he may not get the same opportunity they have leaving him prone to 1-0-0 stinkers.
Shawne Merriman -- Merriman's value is completely tied to your scoring system and/or your particular risk tolerance. You're absolutely correct in that Merriman, elite talent or not, is at the mercy of his scheme for production. Merriman clearly has high double digit sack potential, which makes him a top five player in big play scoring systems. But he doesn't look like he has the tackle potential I thought he might after his glowing offseason reports suggesting he'd greatly improved in run support and coverage. He may have, but projects to only a couple more than 60 solo tackles for the year (including 17 sacks). That'll still stick him in the top 30 for the season in standard leagues if he finishes off that projection but he's had three weeks with little in the tackle column so you'll have to be content taking the up-and-downs in neutral scoring systems.
Brandon Moore -- Just finished a conversation about Moore with a leaguemate. I don't think anyone can reliably say what will happen with Moore last year. The last four weeks look eerily like 2005 when Moore was moved inside in a full time role due to injuries. His owners were hoping for a big 2006. Then Moore got a minor ding and jerked between ILB and OLB all camp and for the first eight weeks of this year. The Niners will probably make a major effort to bring in players to shore up the run defense in a 3-4 front and where will that leave Moore? You'd like to think that his role won't change much -- inside on run downs and outside in the nickel. Maybe the Niners learned their lesson here, maybe not. It could be argued that he's a better all-around LB than Smith, Ulbrich, and Lawson right now. But his value is very dependent on the coming free agent period and draft.
Gerald Hayes -- Hayes has finally performed to his scouting report and stayed healthy. He's always been a favorite of Green and Prendergast, but those guys are almost certain to be in another city in 2007. He's got good job security, but a scheme change (possible) or position change (less likely) could hurt his value with a new coaching staff.
Keep an eye out for some of the off-season stuff. Like last year, I'm planning on columns highlighting new schemes, positions to watch entering free agency, then positions to watch before the draft.
Bloom, Chaos Commish among other Forum regulars are better sources for next year's talent right now. I probably won't feel confident discussing them until after the season. Any impact of next year's rookie crop won't be reliably known until after the draft, though. See D'Qwell Jackson and DeMeco Ryans. But you'd have to think guys like Patrick Willis, Paul Posluzny, and Laron Landry are fairly safe IDP bets. I'm sure there are others I'm missing.
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PatsWillWin
Footballguy
Thanks for the answeres Jene, great stuff.
One quick thought I had is I think that coming up with some kind of teiring system would also be ideal. I think it would be particularly useful in more complex contract type leagues because let's say that LB#13 and LB#17 are available in the upcoming off-season. How much more is LB#13 worth bidding on than LB#17? Difficult to say, I think, with a straight ranking system despite how useful that system is in a lot of other ways. Grouping players into tiers might give a good measuring stick for owners who have a limited amount of resources and have to consider the economical differences of Player A compared to Player B.
I know that most leagues are not contract leagues, but just a perspective from someone who is in a number of them.
Thanks agian.
One quick thought I had is I think that coming up with some kind of teiring system would also be ideal. I think it would be particularly useful in more complex contract type leagues because let's say that LB#13 and LB#17 are available in the upcoming off-season. How much more is LB#13 worth bidding on than LB#17? Difficult to say, I think, with a straight ranking system despite how useful that system is in a lot of other ways. Grouping players into tiers might give a good measuring stick for owners who have a limited amount of resources and have to consider the economical differences of Player A compared to Player B.
I know that most leagues are not contract leagues, but just a perspective from someone who is in a number of them.
Thanks agian.
Weiner Dog
Footballguy
Hayes (...along with Darnell Dockett) inked nice-sized LT deals during the season. This greatly increases the chance that Hayes will be the LT starter in AZ.
Boley - good player, but so is Demorrio Williams. They shuffle those LBs depending on the health of Ed Hartwell. I want an LB I can plug in and not worry about. Right now only Brooking fits that description among the Atlanta LBs.Merriman - Jene hit it - depends on your scoring system. If Sacks are worth more than 3X a tackle, he could be top 5.Moore - I love him because he can get sacks on passing downs, but rack up tackles inside on running downs. He might not keep the job long term - as Jene said, the Niners seem to regularly change their mind about him. Its more his upside IF he stays in his current role that gives him his current ranking that a certainty that he will keep the role.Hayes - should keep the job. I drafted him in every league - in 2005. By 2006 I had given up on him staying healthy.
Interesting comment about Demorrio. I had always heard that while he is the top sub for Atlanta, the opposing teams target him in their offense. That's why he scores so well for fantasy but gets benched as soon as Hartwell gets healthy. Look for Atlanta to upgrade the LB depth over the offseason; I'm bearish on Demorrio.
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