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IDP Nation (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter radiohead417
- Start date
Weiner Dog
Footballguy
It's a nice write-up. Unless I'm mistaken, it's also posted on rotoworld, right??Postives:1.) I enjoy the detailed explanation of each pick. It allows the reader to see what you're thinking.2.) You make some picks that are both ballsy and educated. YES...I'm also sitting Berry (AZ) against Walter Jones.3.) It's nice to see your total "hit/miss" record YTD. Too many ranking services do not hold themselves accountable with their picks and only pimp the correct picks while ignoring the incorrect ones.Negative:The "start" and "sit" players (in many cases) lists obvious picks. For example, will anybody seriously sit guys like Nick Barnett and Troy Polamalu?? On the flip side, how many times will owners seriously pull the trigger and start Ifeanyi Ohalete (only one game on the season with more than 4 tackles) and Mike Minter (also, only one game with more than 4 tackles)?!?! Keep up the great work. I'll be reading each and every week. 
radiohead417
Footballguy
I'm supposed to write it, targeting leagues who only start like 3 IDP players total, so it's going to be pretty shallow advice, unfortunately. Maybe for next season I'll be able to be a little more detailed. As for Ohalete, he has some upside as SS on Cincinnati, but just not this week.Thanks for the comments 
inbreeder
Footballguy
You and I have had this discussion before, but I think it's worth bringing up again because it may well improve your DB hits and misses percentage.I see you consistently downgrade safeties because the teams they face are running teams. This week in particular, you've upgraded three strong safeties because they'll be facing teams likely to pass. Unless those safeties are expected to cover a pass catching TE, like Sammy Knight v Antonio Gates last week, or are a part of a cover two type defense, they'll have little role in the overall pass defense. SS (and the rare FS) can usually be expected to perform best when they're up in run support. I don't have a specific example from this week, but I've seen you downgrade players like Gibril Wilson and Adam Archuleta in weeks past because of the fewer opportunities a running team presents for them.As it stands, your DL and LB predictions are well above average and have been despite some awful ballsy calls that to your credit have been spot-on way more often than not. But I think you could improve your DB numbers if you consider the points above.
radiohead417
Footballguy
I'll definitely take it into consideration, but unless it's a guy like Archuleta or Roy Williams, they don't do a ton against running games.As for upgrades against passing teams, when teams pass more, they are obviously going to get more chances at picks, which are big points, but also they'll have the ocassional sack, plus they'll still get theirs making stops in the pass game on short routes.I agree with you to a point, but especially with free safeties, they get hurt when teams pound the ball.So yes, I agree, there are the guys that do better when teams run, but there aren't a ton of guys like Archuleta (who still gets dinged up way too often for my tastes - nothing worse than an IDP listed as questionable) or Roy Williams who do that.That being said, I'm sitting at .500 at DBs, so maybe I could have some room to improve .
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inbreeder
Footballguy
Shrug.Fair enough. I don't remember seeing many strong safeties covering WR, even those WR3 in the slot, and getting the bulk of their tackles that way. My guess would be that the strong safeties that you upgraded because of their usefulness in the passing game and ended up as hits performed well because of high tackle numbers in run defense and many of the safeties who ended up as misses from the sit side did so for the same reason.I'll definitely take it into consideration, but unless it's a guy like Archuleta or Roy Williams, they don't do a ton against running games.
As for upgrades against passing teams, when teams pass more, they are obviously going to get more chances at picks, which are big points, but also they'll have the ocassional sack, plus they'll still get theirs making stops in the pass game on short routes.
I agree with you to a point, but especially with free safeties, they get hurt when teams pound the ball.
So yes, I agree, there are the guys that do better when teams run, but there aren't a ton of guys like Archuleta (who still gets dinged up way too often for my tastes - nothing worse than an IDP listed as questionable) or Roy Williams who do that.
That being said, I'm sitting at .500 at DBs, so maybe I could have some room to improve
I don't mean for this to seem like a personal crusade, but I get tired of the argument from some of my IDP league competition (one that I wouldn't attribute to you in any way) that suggests that IDPs are way too unpredictable. I think you've misunderstood the responsibilities of the safety position, but I don't think I'll change your mind. I think your DB percentage will improve if you go back and critically look at what I've suggested and your readers will be better served. You've proven that you can predict DL and LB performance, there's no reason your DB percentage shouldn't be better as well, especially since your target audience is a start three only crowd.
This season's top 10 strong safeties include Gibril Wilson, Adam Archuleta, Adrian Wilson, and Terrance Kiel. The bulk of their numbers come from tackles in run support. They do worse, not better, against teams who run the ball less - witness Gibril Wilson last week.
If you'd like, with respect to strong safeties and passing matchups, we'll do a little experiment this week.
Top rushing attacks include IND, SEA, SD, and BUF. I'd suggest to you that Adrian Wilson against Shaun Alexander and Kerry Rhodes against LT2 have better than average games this week and will be among the highest scoring safeties this week because they'll have tackled those backs many times. On the other hand, I'd venture to guess that SF will be passing relatively more than running this week against the Giants and that Gibril Wilson may have another subpar game. You mentioned Ifeanyi Ohalete and Kevin Kaesviharn and Mike Doss in your column. I'll argue that if the Ravens run 27 times against the Bengals, Kaesviharn will have a "start" quality game. I'll argue that if the Pats rush the ball less than 24 times, Doss will have a "sit" quality game.
Should be a good test for both of our ideas on who to start. We can meet back and debate why each player did/didn't perform to our expectations.
radiohead417
Footballguy
Sounds good - hey, I'm not one who isn't willing to listen, and give other theories a chance. Open-minded people always do better at fantasy football
Jiggyonthehut
Footballguy
One question and I like the article for the majority of the part- I disagree about Merriman not putting those type numbers every week. My question to you is about Tedy Bruschi. Perhaps it was due to the spotlight on him and perhaps his rawness on the field after being out for many weeks, but he seemed to be a bit shaky out there. I saw him often botch tackles that he should have made under normal cirumstances and get caught biting the run in one direction trying to hit that homerun play. Could his shaky play be due to nervousness or are we looking at an inferior (but still solid) version of Bruschi?Id be interested in hearing your answer 
radiohead417
Footballguy
"How do you like Thomas and Trotter this week?"Thomas should bounce back nicely against Atlanta, who runs the ball a ton - though he typically wears down at the end of the season, and still finishes top 10, but ends up near the bottom of the top 10.Trotter has been a beast, but dinged up. He's probable this week, but still should be good with Washington running the ball, assuming they aren't down by 30 at the half like they were against the Giants."My question to you is about Tedy Bruschi. Perhaps it was due to the spotlight on him and perhaps his rawness on the field after being out for many weeks, but he seemed to be a bit shaky out there. I saw him often botch tackles that he should have made under normal cirumstances and get caught biting the run in one direction trying to hit that homerun play.Could his shaky play be due to nervousness or are we looking at an inferior (but still solid) version of Bruschi?"You have to figure he'll be rusty, but let's not forget that Bruschi was no Donnie Edwards last year. He was good, still a top 20 type of guy, but no game changer fantasy-wise.I think he'll be solid, good for something like 5-3-0 or 6-2-0 every week by the time he plays himself into shape.Guys, write my editors and tell them how much you love the column, and how you want more in-depth info (and a raise for the writer!)
Jiggyonthehut
Footballguy
Radiohead now you have me intrigued about an issue you discussed in your article. It pertains to rookies- and I was wondering how you felt about their potential fantasy impact.Right now the only ones I can think of off the top of my head who are making an impact- if not a large one. What do you think of said guys: Odell and DJ have been excellent thus far but really the surprise plays are these two. Lofa was taken early to some people's surprise and has rewarded in turn but Morrison really came out of nowhere:--Lofa Tatupu- Not sure what to expect from this guy; seems to be getting in on everything.--Kirk Morrison- surprise play here, has impressed this far but are opportunities limited due to his coverage assignment? Tackles have been plenty but doesnt seem to get in on the good stuff (sacks, INT's etc.)
radiohead417
Footballguy
If you're talking only rookie LBs, you're right. Morrison and Lofa have been great - I think you're missing out on a guy who is going to have a good second half - Channing Crowder. He outperformed Zach Thomas last week, and could be a big-time player in the future.Although, the guy who I think might end up as the best out of whole class, has hardly gotten on the field so far - Barrett Ruud. Keep an eye out for him near the end of the year, or if somebody gets hurt, especially Shelton Quarles.Alfred Fincher is also on my radar, as is Darryl Blackstock.
Weiner Dog
Footballguy
I just read your Week 10 column. Nice job, as always.
link:
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/features/...t=NFL&column=49
You may, however, want to change the following...
* Reggie Hayward (JAXX) will primarily be facing Jonathan Ogden, not Orlando Brown. He plays RDE, not LDE. This makes Hayward's matchup a tadbit more daunting.
* Jason Taylor (MIA) will be facing a rookie at LT (Kaczur) for the Pats. The left side of the Pats' line has been much transparent than the right side. This bodes well for Taylor since he plays RDE. Kaczur shut-out Freeney last week (with the help of both Mankins & Koppen and chip blocks by Graham and Watson) but he also gave-up two sacks to Schobel the week before.
* It's not entirely fair to include Corey Ivy on you "sit" list. The guy is only a nickle back for the Rams. Plus, the Hawks' WR corp is so decimated that it will be tough for them to ever go 3-wide.
On a side note, I like you ballsy calls. Benching Roy Williams against the Eagles should prove interesting.
Keep 'em coming.
link:
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/features/...t=NFL&column=49
You may, however, want to change the following...
* Reggie Hayward (JAXX) will primarily be facing Jonathan Ogden, not Orlando Brown. He plays RDE, not LDE. This makes Hayward's matchup a tadbit more daunting.
* Jason Taylor (MIA) will be facing a rookie at LT (Kaczur) for the Pats. The left side of the Pats' line has been much transparent than the right side. This bodes well for Taylor since he plays RDE. Kaczur shut-out Freeney last week (with the help of both Mankins & Koppen and chip blocks by Graham and Watson) but he also gave-up two sacks to Schobel the week before.
* It's not entirely fair to include Corey Ivy on you "sit" list. The guy is only a nickle back for the Rams. Plus, the Hawks' WR corp is so decimated that it will be tough for them to ever go 3-wide.
On a side note, I like you ballsy calls. Benching Roy Williams against the Eagles should prove interesting.
Keep 'em coming.
radiohead417
Footballguy
Hayward is left defensive end.
http://www.jacksonville.com/tu-online/stor..._20247108.shtml
"Spicer's assignment this Sunday against the Baltimore Ravens will be typically daunting. He will face left tackle Jonathan Ogden, who some say is destined for the Pro Football Hall of Fame."
Taylor is against a rookie, but they still have done pretty well, I'm sure Taylor will get similar treatment to Freeney, which will hurt him.
And Corey Ivy should be starting alongside Travis Fisher. If I'm mistaken, and Groce is starting, well, I'm wrong. I readily admit it, and give myself a thumbs down for the oops.
http://www.jacksonville.com/tu-online/stor..._20247108.shtml
"Spicer's assignment this Sunday against the Baltimore Ravens will be typically daunting. He will face left tackle Jonathan Ogden, who some say is destined for the Pro Football Hall of Fame."
Taylor is against a rookie, but they still have done pretty well, I'm sure Taylor will get similar treatment to Freeney, which will hurt him.
And Corey Ivy should be starting alongside Travis Fisher. If I'm mistaken, and Groce is starting, well, I'm wrong. I readily admit it, and give myself a thumbs down for the oops.
Weiner Dog
Footballguy
The Jag report you referenced is incorrect. Hayward has been the RDE all season.Week 1 (Hayward at RE):
http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/gamebook/NFL_20050911_SEA@JAC
Week 9 (Hayward at RE):
http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/gamebook/NFL_20051106_HOU@JAC
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radiohead417
Footballguy
Please trust me on this one, I'm a Jaguars fan, and while he did start the year at RDE, he's a LDE now - I drag myself out to a DC bar every week fighting the Redskins fans to watch my poor Jaguars.
Week 8 Gamebook
Week 7 Gamebook
My guess is that it's a screw up in week 9, or he 'officially' started at RDE, but he definitely was playing LDE the whole game.
Week 8 Gamebook
Week 7 Gamebook
My guess is that it's a screw up in week 9, or he 'officially' started at RDE, but he definitely was playing LDE the whole game.
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Hayward is playing LDE?According to NFL gamebooks, they started him there against the Colts, Broncos, Bengals, Steelers, and Rams, but started him at RDE against the Seahawks, Jets, and Texans.weird.
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Weiner Dog
Footballguy
Regarding Hayward's actual position, it looks as if everybody is correct...
link:
http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/NFL/A...WHI/default.htm
Perceived by some observers as shielding their $25 million investment, and by others as a winning strategy, the Jaguars plan to rotate Reggie Hayward between his natural DRE position and left end, based on the week’s opponent. In the opener, Hayward lined up mostly at left end — keeping him away from Seahawks Pro Bowl OLT Walter Jones — in a premeditated move designed to disturb the Seahawks’ passing game. Hayward did beat Seahawks ORT Sean Locklear on multiple occasions and, by the team's count, hit QB Matt Hasselbeck at least seven times and helped force a turnover. Hayward offered his two cents, saying he likes the left side, but did not question the coaches, who would like him to be a premium pass rusher.
link:
http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/NFL/A...WHI/default.htm
Perceived by some observers as shielding their $25 million investment, and by others as a winning strategy, the Jaguars plan to rotate Reggie Hayward between his natural DRE position and left end, based on the week’s opponent. In the opener, Hayward lined up mostly at left end — keeping him away from Seahawks Pro Bowl OLT Walter Jones — in a premeditated move designed to disturb the Seahawks’ passing game. Hayward did beat Seahawks ORT Sean Locklear on multiple occasions and, by the team's count, hit QB Matt Hasselbeck at least seven times and helped force a turnover. Hayward offered his two cents, saying he likes the left side, but did not question the coaches, who would like him to be a premium pass rusher.
radiohead417
Footballguy
Yea, but he was definitely playing LDE against the Texans, for all of the game I could remember.
inbreeder
Footballguy
Checking up on our experiment. I saw your column this week and appreciate your willingness to consider other ideas. I'm not sure how you determine hits and misses, but here are the stats for the five I chose to contrast our different theories of safety values based on rush matchups.My starts
Adrian Wilson 4 tackles, 1 assist, PD
Kerry Rhodes 7 tackles, 1 assist
Kevin Kaesviharn (Ravens rushed 24 times) 3 tackles, 3 assists, PD, FR
My sits
Gibril Wilson 4 tackles, 1 assist, 1 sack
Mike Doss (Pats rushed 14 times) 3 tackles, 1 assist
Not as dramatic as I'd hoped, mostly because Wilson and Kaesviharn's counterparts got 9 and 7 tackles respectively. I think that still argues in my favor, however, that teams with high rush attempts tend to improve safety tackle numbers than deflate them. Gibril Wilson and Mike Doss both had poorer than baseline games, although Wilson was able to get the big play again this week.
Continuing the exercise for another week, I'd argue that your suggestions to start Michael Lewis and sit Roy Williams are good ones based on the rush matchups. I'd add Adam Archuleta and Greg Wesley to my start list and downgrade Bob Sanders and Mike Brown.
