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IDP Only Mock Draft (1 Viewer)

Jene Bramel

Footballguy
Thought some might be interested in following an IDP-only mock draft that I'll be participating in alongside some other IDP luminaries from the Twitterverse.

I might deviate from my rankings (many of us have rolled out redraft rankings this week, BTW, DL // LB // DB) and will probably do plenty of commentary on my Twitter account, but discussion is certainly welcome here as well.

 
All I can say is wow!

DL rankings:

Minn-6

Det-5

Tenn-4

Pit-0

Kendal Langford above all Pttsburg defensive linemen?

 
1.12 12. @JeneBramel :::: Johnson, Charles CAR DE

Would seriously have considered taking two stud DE at the turn if two of my top five had fallen. With Allen off the board at 1.11, that leaves Johnson as the last potential 50-10 player on my board. I think he re-signs with Carolina and I'm not at all concerned that he's a one year wonder/contract year fluke.

2.01 13. @JeneBramel :::: Bishop, Desmond GBP LB

Bishop continues to creep up my draft board. I had him toward the bottom of this top tier as recently as last week, but after looking at the schedules of the top backers this weekend, I'm taking him ahead of a few other notables in this scoring system. Out of conference road games in ATL, NYG, KC and SD plus two games v CHI, MIN, TB and a home game v OAK should keep Bishop more than busy enough.

 
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Wow Bishop before Beason.

He is a player who excelled in preseason. We thought we could lose him in free agency because he didn't get a chance until last year. Not fast but he is usually around the ball.

 
Draft made it to the 3/4 turn yesterday and should be through the 5/6 turn later today.

3.12 (36) @JeneBramel :::: Dansby, Karlos MIA LB

78 solos and 3 sacks in 14 games last year, a handful of which he was limited by a toe injury. Happy to get him as my LB2.

4.01 (37) @JeneBramel :::: McClain, Rolando OAK LB

McClain showed signs of becoming a different player after his bye week and his confidence seemed to grow over the last month of this season. The instincts are there, the playing speed will follow. The top of the fourth may be a little early, but he won't be there at the next turn and he's got tons of upside as a LB3.

 
Is Julius Peppers not in your top 5 of DE? I don't think he was taken when you took Charles was he?
Peppers, Mathis and Umenyiora are just outside my top five. All could hit the 50 solo tackle mark, but have a much lower tackle floor than the five above them. I'm probably in the minority on Johnson, but I don't think last season was a fluke. I think his career path will be similar to Aaron Kampman's.
 
5.12 (60) @JeneBramel :::: Harper, Roman NOS S

I expect him to re-sign with New Orleans and put up his usual 80 solos and handful of big plays. With Bernard Pollard's 2011 uniform in doubt, Harper is the last top tier safety on my board. Glad he made it to this turn.

6.01 (61) @JeneBramel :::: Irving, Nate DEN LB

Another guy I'll have to reach for drafting from the turn, but I think he'll outproduce this draft position. The Broncos have given every indication that Irving is the favorite to start in the middle and I think he's fully recovered from the car accident that set him back in college. I believe he'll play every down, but he'll still have strong matchup upside as a flex starter and bye week replacement if not. Considered two or three others here, but I'm rolling the dice on Irving's upside.

Through six rounds, the depth chart reads:

DT

DE Charles Johnson

LB Desmond Bishop / Karlos Dansby / Rolando McClain / Nate Irving

CB

SF Roman Harper

 
Rookies so far- Irving could be a bargain here

5.01 49. @MSchauf63 Foster, Mason TBB LB ® Sun Jun 5 10:46:38 p.m. ET 2011 The only danger here is that the Bucs run out of time to turn him into the immediate starter in the middle. I refuse to let that run my strategy at this point, though. If Foster is the starter, the upside is immense across categories.

6.01 61. @JeneBramel Irving, Nate DEN LB ® Mon Jun 6 11:03:03 p.m. ET 2011 Another guy I'll have to reach for drafting from the turn, but I think he'll outproduce this draft position. The Broncos have given every indication that Irving is the favorite to start in the middle and I think he's fully recovered from the car accident that set him back in college. I believe he'll play every down, but he'll still have strong matchup upside as a flex starter and bye week replacement if not. Considered two or three others here, but I'm rolling the dice on Irving's upside.

 
7.12 (84) @JeneBramel :::: Dockett, Darnell ARI DE

I nearly drafted Dunlap at the last turn, but decided to let him slide to gauge his potential ADP. Dockett is a rock solid DE2 in this format, with upside if he finishes closer in the 7-9 sack range rather than the 4-6 range. I'll feel better about taking upside in the DE3 and DE4 roster slots with Dockett providing lineup stability.

8.01 (85) @JeneBramel :::: Finnegan, Cortland TEN CB

The 2010 Titans' defense had the highest tackle opportunity per game in the eight years I've been tracking that metric. A full opp/game higher than the next highest defense in those eight years and eight opps/game higher than the league average. There will be plenty of regression among the Tennessee defenders, but Finnegan remains a safe 70 solo, double digit PD, and big play threat. Still plenty of top tier CBs on my board, but it feels like I better get one now or risk getting shut out.

____________

Depth chart

DT

DE C Johnson / D Dockett

LB D Bishop / K Dansby / R McClain / N Irving

CB C Finnegan

SF R Harper

 
Not a big fan of your team this time Jene. Dont like relying on a rookie ever. Not as big fan of Charles Johnson as you are(of course I could be upset after waiting on him and trading him for 5th rounder last year because of roster limitations). I prefer Peppers still. Roman Harper I do like but S is such an easy position to fill but like him a ton. ONly Berry excites me more.

I really like Vanden Bosch over Darnell Dockett also. With those 2 beasts on the inside, I think he will be huge this year if he stays healthy. He will be a target if dropping that far in many drafts.

Loving my LB core in my home league. Some LB's I really like still not drafted.

I still alot of reaches. Guy hoping on Mario Williams. That could be a very bad pick. Matt Shaugnessy seems way too high

 
Not a big fan of your team this time Jene. Dont like relying on a rookie ever. Not as big fan of Charles Johnson as you are(of course I could be upset after waiting on him and trading him for 5th rounder last year because of roster limitations). I prefer Peppers still. Roman Harper I do like but S is such an easy position to fill but like him a ton. ONly Berry excites me more. I really like Vanden Bosch over Darnell Dockett also. With those 2 beasts on the inside, I think he will be huge this year if he stays healthy. He will be a target if dropping that far in many drafts. Loving my LB core in my home league. Some LB's I really like still not drafted.I still alot of reaches. Guy hoping on Mario Williams. That could be a very bad pick. Matt Shaugnessy seems way too high
I'm not sure I love it either.On one hand, I have (on my draft board) a top five DE, three top 20 LBs, a top five CB and top five SF through six rounds with a very solid DE2. On the other hand, there are legitimate arguments that Johnson was a contract year talent and had a career season, that Bishop was a late round draft pick for a reason, that Dansby is over the hill, that McClain is a bust, that Irving won't crack the lineup and that Finnegan's big season was propped up by the Titans' silly high tackle opportunity.Frankly, I hate the turn in an IDP only draft. If your draftmates are on the ball, the top four DE and top four LB (where I think the stud tiers break) will be gone in the first ten picks. And it becomes really hard to (a) not reach and (b) not get caught on the wrong side of a tier run in rounds 3-10 when the starting lineups get filled.I think Peppers is much more likely to put up 35-40 solos than 45-50 solos. In this format, that's potentially a big deal. On the other hand, it's ludicrous that he lasted until 3.02. I nearly took him at 2.01, but was worried about getting shut out of a 90 solo guy at LB in this scoring system.I think the hype on Detroit's defensive line is overblown. Vanden Bosch has had strong pressure numbers for three years, but he can't close in the pocket anymore. I don't think a strong surrounding cast solves that problem. Cliff Avril has shown flashes for years, but he was benched at one point last year. Both have had durability issues. Ndumakong Suh is a stud, but there were holes on tape last year that can be exploited. And Nick Fairley oozes upside, but is an unknown in the NFL. People thinking that this is the next Fearsome Foursome are going to be disappointed. Still, I like VDB's upside. I very nearly took him over Dockett. VDB is actually one line higher that Dockett in that tier. Since I'm planning on reaching for upside at the DE3 and DE4 slots, I decided on the higher floor DE2 there.Shaughnessy went a little higher than I'd consider him, but I think the only thing holding him back is his snap count. He's hanging out in the relatively deep DE3+ tier for me, but he'll be in my top 15-20 if/when it's clear that he'll get 75-80% of the snaps. 43-7 in 60-65% is a nice foundation to build on.Which LBs are you high on that have yet to be drafted? I left Thomas Davis on the board at the last turn for Finnegan, fearing a big CB run (only four had been drafted through seven rounds and we must start two). Gary Brackett is there, too, but I don't see a whole lot of relatively sure upside past those two.
 
I love Thomas Davis and take him over Finnegan.

I cant wait to see where Barnett goes. I still think he will be a big contributer wherever he is this year. Certainly tackle heavy takes out all those guys unfortunately.

Darryl Smith will provide nice value here also. Lofa wont be too bad also if he can stay healthy. Stewart Bradley will fill out my starters if just drafting now. I would than take chances if Survivor format with the sack guys for the big weeks. Old man Farrior might be useful now in this scoring also.

AT De. I would be jumping on Ray Edwards. I think he has shown more talent than a Charles Johnson to this point and could be the man wherever he goes this year. Avril will still be not a bad pickup. I just think Suh will get more attention this year and free up the rest even more. Kind of like when the Williams boys where dominating and so was the DE. Allen really took a back seat this year with those 2 struggling.

I like Richard Seymour at DT to fill out roster. BJ Raji, or Sedrick Ellis will be nice. Can Kevin rebound.

Lots of S I still like. Nick Collins, Charles Godfrey, Antrei Rolle or Kenny Phillips, Dashon Goldson, Jarius Byrd, Nate Allen, William Moore or Atogwe to name a few

CB. A dime a dozen.

Do you think Suh was overdrafted. Derrick Harvey had a pretty good season, 2 years ago in this format. Was that a Charles Johnson type of thing or can he still do something

 
I love Thomas Davis and take him over Finnegan.
This was another Dunlap type situation. I really think the lineup looks better with one of my top three corners in it, but Davis was a screaming value on my tier board. I let him pass partially because of the CB requirements and as an ADP test of sorts.
I cant wait to see where Barnett goes. I still think he will be a big contributer wherever he is this year. Certainly tackle heavy takes out all those guys unfortunately. Darryl Smith will provide nice value here also. Lofa wont be too bad also if he can stay healthy. Stewart Bradley will fill out my starters if just drafting now. I would than take chances if Survivor format with the sack guys for the big weeks. Old man Farrior might be useful now in this scoring also.
Barnett is an interesting situation. I think he'll be released, but I'm not sure he'll be as attractive on the market as some think. Especially if the RFA tags go away. But there's no doubt that he's a potential LB1/2 if he ends up in a place like Detroit or Jacksonville. Agree on Smith and Farrior. Tatupu and Bradley are low upside LB4 for me. The sack guys were overdrafted a little, so there aren't many left. Hali, Orakpo and Woodley are the only guys left on my top 50 list. I think they make sense soon, too.
AT De. I would be jumping on Ray Edwards. I think he has shown more talent than a Charles Johnson to this point and could be the man wherever he goes this year. Avril will still be not a bad pickup. I just think Suh will get more attention this year and free up the rest even more. Kind of like when the Williams boys where dominating and so was the DE. Allen really took a back seat this year with those 2 struggling
You and I are still high on Edwards. He was above both Dockett and VDB in my second/third tier (DE2+). I think he'll still be on the board at the 9/10 and possibly the 11/12 (there has still not been a big run on corners).
I like Richard Seymour at DT to fill out roster. BJ Raji, or Sedrick Ellis will be nice. Can Kevin rebound.
Seymour was definitely a consideration at the last turn. Still had 3-4 top tier DTs on the board, and I think I'll still get one later. If not, I've got a monster list of potential DT1 candidates to pick from a little later. I don't think Williams has DT1 upside for the year, but he's in the group of "any given weekend" studs with a DT2/DT3+ floor.
Lots of S I still like. Nick Collins, Charles Godfrey, Antrei Rolle or Kenny Phillips, Dashon Goldson, Jarius Byrd, Nate Allen, William Moore or Atogwe to name a fewCB. A dime a dozen.
Absolutely on the safeties. So much uncertainty until free agency settles out, but there are lots of solid players to fill out behind the 80 solo anchor. Not sure I completely agree on the cornerback comment. Definitely true that options will present themselves on the wire, but I've only got 13 corners in my top two tiers. I got a little ribbing over email suggesting that my comment on Finnegan was meant to provoke a CB run. There's a hint of truth in that, but I think the lineup format demands that you find some kind of advantage at CB. There'll be a Dmitri Patterson or Glover Quin to be found this year, but I don't want to have to fight to get two of them.
Do you think Suh was overdrafted. Derrick Harvey had a pretty good season, 2 years ago in this format. Was that a Charles Johnson type of thing or can he still do something
Suh is extremely interesting. It's been years since we've had a Warren Sapp, La'Roi Glover, Rod Coleman, Wayne Martin type DT producer (40-45/10-12), and I think many vets forget just how consistently valuable a true stud DT can be. Those guys were DL1 IDPs for a handful of seasons each. If Suh is that guy, then he deserved a first round pick -- he'd be two full tiers above the other top tier DTs and fit within the stud DE1 tier. If he isn't, then he was overdrafted by 3-5 rounds.If you can, go back and look at some film on Charles Johnson. He's not a pure edge rusher, but he consistently got off the ball quickly and his pass rush moves and angles and closing speed were very good. I don't think Johnson is a contract year fluke. My read of his scouting report and situation is that Johnson always had the talent but was stuck in a situational role under a coach that valued consistent veteran play (Brayton over Johnson, Lucas over Marshall, etc). He played about 50% of the snaps in 2008 and had six sacks, seven batted passes and 33 QH and pressures. He played about the same number (minus three games due to injury) in 2009 and had four sacks, three batted passes and 24 QH and pressures. He played the run well enough to average a 40 solo/16 game pace over those two years. That's a consistent snap-to-snap player. Last year was the natural progression of a big frame DE. He played 75-80% of the snaps in his age 24 season and had a better solo tackle and sack rate. He looks a whole lot more like Aaron Kampman than Derrick Harvey to me.That's my argument anyway, :) We'll see how it plays out. I'm heavily invested in Johnson and am putting my money where my keyboard is by trying to get him in other dynasty leagues as a "sell high" target.Very much appreciate the back and forth.
 
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Well than I screwed up trading him and keeping some of the guys I did with Johnson if you are correct. And you know I hold your opinion higher than anyone elses.

 
Well than I screwed up trading him and keeping some of the guys I did with Johnson if you are correct. And you know I hold your opinion higher than anyone elses.
:lol: I've had my share of man-crushes flame out spectacularly over the years. I don't think this is going to be another IDP-Waterloo in the mold of Fred Bennett or Darryl Tapp, but it won't be the first time. To be clear, I'm not saying you're opinion is misguided, just that the Ray Edwards >> Charles Johnson talent argument made me think you might change your mind if you took another look at Johnson on tape. That happens for me (a mistaken first and second impression in either direction) often enough that I'm making sure I take an extra look at Jamar Chaney, TJ Ward and Carlos Dunlap (among others) this month.
 
Jene can you comment on the Brian Cushing pick at 2.09? I know last year he started the season off poorly seemingly because of his 4 game suspension, Ryans got hurt so he had to play out of position in the middle and just overall it was a bad yer for Cushing. Now that he is playing inside in a 3-4, are his numbers expected to rise significantly? I just thought that the 2.09 pick was a horrible reach for a steroid laden 1 year wonder player. Gosh, there were so many players that were drafted after Cushing that I would have rather had (Harrison, DJ Williams, Derek Johnson, Clay, Vilma, Harris, Dansby, Fletcher, Ruud etc...). You can even make a case for guys that were drafted in the 5th round (Briggs, Hawthorne, Session).

So what gives with Cushing?

 
Jene can you comment on the Brian Cushing pick at 2.09? I know last year he started the season off poorly seemingly because of his 4 game suspension, Ryans got hurt so he had to play out of position in the middle and just overall it was a bad yer for Cushing. Now that he is playing inside in a 3-4, are his numbers expected to rise significantly? I just thought that the 2.09 pick was a horrible reach for a steroid laden 1 year wonder player. Gosh, there were so many players that were drafted after Cushing that I would have rather had (Harrison, DJ Williams, Derek Johnson, Clay, Vilma, Harris, Dansby, Fletcher, Ruud etc...). You can even make a case for guys that were drafted in the 5th round (Briggs, Hawthorne, Session). So what gives with Cushing?
I've got Cushing just outside my top 25. It's a hedge, since I can see this going one of two ways.1. Cushing plays inside on every down, gets comfortable shedding blocks, and shows his rookie decisiveness and downhill playing style. Wade uses him in subpackages as he used Bradie James in 2008. He's then got Lawrence Timmons like upside. James had 80 solos and 8 sacks in 2008, including a 50-6 stretch vs a killer run of matchups over his final eight games. Cushing is arguably a better talent.2. Cushing is the base SILB, never really gets comfortable in the box and gets to the play a half step late too often. Wade ends up using him more as a standup edge rusher on passing downs. If that happens, Cushing may look a lot more like Bart Scott. It's not a perfect on-field comparison, but the numbers (65-75 solos, 3-6 sacks) may look similar.I think he'll be much closer to the first scenario, but I'd be much more comfortable projecting a top 15 or better finish if he had an offseason of reps and/or shows in the preseason that his discomfort inside is gone. For now, the majority of guys you mention are higher on my board. Session would be close if he was a certainty in Indy. Hawthorne would be close if he was surely playing every down. I almost never draft guys like Briggs, but he's there, too.
 
That's my argument anyway, :) We'll see how it plays out. I'm heavily invested in Johnson and am putting my money where my keyboard is by trying to get him in other dynasty leagues as a "sell high" target.
Been trying to pry Johnson from Matt Williamson since last year in this league. Finally swung this deal. Big risk-reward deal with Clayton as the primary target.ESPN/Scouts Inc. gave up

Clayton, Mark STL WR

Johnson, Charles CAR DE

FootballGuys gave up

Gaffney, Jabar DEN WR

Thomas, Mike JAC WR

Year 2012 Round 3 Draft Pick from FootballGuys

ETA: Matt cut Gaffney for Jason Jones after I executed the deal.

 
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Thanks Jene. I hope you're right with your 'much closer to first scenario' comment. I would think that he is much closer to the second scenario, but I suppose it's just all a crapshoot at this point. I'm just very leery of guys that were caught using steroids and watching them regress. Big red flag. Unless Cushing went back on the juice or HGH or whatever the kids are putting in their bodies these days, I'm afraid of a another underwhelming season from him. Just safer to draft a David Harris or Lance Briggs, IMHO.

Thanks!

- GM

 
9.12 (108) @JeneBramel :::: Davis, Thomas CAR LB

The knee injuries and potential for a new address in free agency are concerns, but Davis carries LB2 upside at a 9th round price. I like the risk-reward he offers in my LB5 slot. Thought very seriously about taking him at the previous turn.

10.01 (109) @JeneBramel :::: Winfield, Antoine MIN CB

I get that strong IDP options present themselves at the corner position every year. But I think this year's group of trustworthy starters is relatively thin and we have to start two. The tiers at the other positions are deep enough to continue pressing a relative advantage at CB. Winfield and Finnegan are near locks for 70 solos and big play threats in any given week.

____________

Depth chart

DT

DE C Johnson / D Dockett

LB D Bishop / K Dansby / R McClain / N Irving / T Davis

CB C Finnegan / A Winfield

SF R Harper

Nice to get Davis at this turn after narrowly passing on him at the previous turn. Would've strongly considered Kyle Vanden Bosch, Ray Edwards, Patrick Peterson or Morgan Burnett here but they were taken. Left two players I'd really like to get on the board, but the tiers pushed me toward Winfield.

We'll see what falls.

Also, this mock will be excellent prep for a new IDP-only "Experts" league hosted by Pro Football Focus. Sig and I, along with the entire PFF gang, Tony Nowak (Tenacious D), Matt Schauf and a handful of other IDP lovers, start drafting Monday. I'll probably start a new thread for that one, as it'll be a redraft league that we'll play through to conclusion.

 
I realize that there is a lot of overlap between redraft and dynasty, but there seems to be an emphasis on redraft in the rankings and mocks that leaves a gap for idp dynasty players, and I've thought that most guys going IDP tend to also be dynasty players.

For instance would like to see more than Borbely posting up dynasty rankings for IDP.

 
I see your up Jene. I would give you who I would take right now but dont want to influence you. :)

 
11.12 (132) @JeneBramel :::: Moore, William ATL S

42 solo tackles over his last eight games and five interceptions on the season. A little fluky maybe and some risk that a healthy Sean Weatherspoon limits his tackle upside, but that upside is too good to pass here.

12.01 (133) @JeneBramel :::: Jones, Jason TEN DT

Left Richard Seymour on the board for two consecutive turns and it looked like he'd make it to this one (where I'd have taken him with Cliff Avril). Instead, I'm pulling the trigger on a long time personal favorite. Jones has had one of the best situational profiles in the league for three years, with only snap count and injury limiting his year-end numbers. With a new DC and scheme (and hopefully health), this is the year he breaks out.

____________

Depth chart

DT J Jones

DE C Johnson / D Dockett

LB D Bishop / K Dansby / R McClain / N Irving / T Davis

CB C Finnegan / A Winfield

SF R Harper / W Moore

 
Will we where thinking kind of alike but I would have not gone DT as I seen a list I still liked even though Tommy Kelly did go right afterwards. Sedrick Ellis was the guy I would have gone instead but still not the position I draft

Even though I draft Nick Collins over William Moore that is apples to oranges. I think Collins does not get respect and not sure why. He is huge in that Packer D and is all over the place. He was DMVP in the playoffs for them IMO. Gets his tackles and comes out with big plays but Moore was fine pick

The other one would have gone with a rookie DE. Sherard, Bowers, Clayborne or Jordan would have been it. There is such a scarcity of good ones here and you better hope one drops to you. I would have liked the DT dropping instead. I think it is the Cleveland guy you like and he would have been my pick even if I dont mind all 4 of them in the end.

 
Will we where thinking kind of alike but I would have not gone DT as I seen a list I still liked even though Tommy Kelly did go right afterwards. Sedrick Ellis was the guy I would have gone instead but still not the position I draftEven though I draft Nick Collins over William Moore that is apples to oranges. I think Collins does not get respect and not sure why. He is huge in that Packer D and is all over the place. He was DMVP in the playoffs for them IMO. Gets his tackles and comes out with big plays but Moore was fine pickThe other one would have gone with a rookie DE. Sherard, Bowers, Clayborne or Jordan would have been it. There is such a scarcity of good ones here and you better hope one drops to you. I would have liked the DT dropping instead. I think it is the Cleveland guy you like and he would have been my pick even if I dont mind all 4 of them in the end.
Six defensive ends I still like. I'm reasonably certain I'll end up with two off that list. Really wanted Avril at that last turn.Not a big fan of the Moore pick, but he was the best of the three guys I liked as with top ten safety potential. Have a feeling they're more likely to go before the next turn that the DL I like.We had a nice little Kelly debate on email after that pick (and the accompanying comment that he was outside my top 60).My response:I have a love-hate relationship with Tommy Kelly.I've pimped that guy in some form or fashion since the preseason of 2005. Praised him as the heir to La'Roi Glover as the "next big consistent DT worthy of DL2 or better standing" in 2007 and he's made me look foolish for most of the last four years. Last year would have been enough to get him out of my doghouse, but he's at the bottom half of my second tier DTs. Since I'd rather risk an upside DE than a questionably consistent DT, he's out of my top 60 for now. Mocks like this firm up the 35-60 range for me, though, and Kelly probably will find his way into that range soon.Which means that he'll suck hard again this year. Sorry in advance.

Two other drafters commented that Jones was their next pick after I took him. I found that interesting, because I thought there was a decent chance that he'd last to my next turn. I took him primarily because I wanted to comment on him, lol.
 

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