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IDP Opportunity in the 2008 Draft (1 Viewer)

Jene Bramel

Footballguy
This article should be posted on the main page before tomorrow morning, but I figured I'd post it for the diehards in here early.



IDP OPPORTUNITY AND THE NFL DRAFT

With only a rare free agent or two of note left on the market, IDP owners should now be turning their attention to the NFL Draft. Here’s a look at some of the most attractive situations for a defensive rookie to land during the 2008 draft.

Detroit Lions (LB) – Paris Lenon is rumored to be moving to the strong side in Detroit in the near future. Though the Lions have a couple of interesting prospects (Anthony Cannon, Buster Davis) waiting in the wings, this is another MLB role ripe for the taking before the 2009 season begins.

Minnesota Vikings (DE) – Erasmus James has yet to prove himself capable or healthy enough to play every down and is again rehabbing an ACL injury. Kenechi Udeze is very unlikely to play in 2008 after being diagnosed with leukemia this offseason. Brian Robison has the inside track at a much larger role this year, but may not be an every down player. Assuming the team doesn’t acquire Jared Allen, the Vikings will likely be in the market for another pass rusher in this draft.

Kansas City Chiefs (CB) – The Chiefs are another team that uses a lot of zone coverage. With Patrick Surtain the only proven corner on the roster, Kansas City could bring in another body to compete with CFA surprises Dimitri Patterson and Tyron Brackenridge.

Baltimore Ravens (LB) – 2008 is the last year of Ray Lewis’ contract. The Ravens drafted two linebackers in 2007, but neither Prescott Burgess nor Antwan Barnes are likely to be a long-term answer at MLB. Mike Smith and Bart Scott could potentially move into the middle, but the Ravens may draft Lewis’ heir this year. The right fit could have plenty of value in 2009 and beyond.



New England Patriots (LB) – It has not been Bill Belichick’s style to draft linebackers early; he prefers experienced vets that can quickly grasp his multiple front scheme. There were plenty of rumors that Belichick was considering David Harris last year, however, and there’s still room after the Victor Hobson signing to bring in a youngster to develop.

Buffalo Bills (CB) – One of our pet situations to track is the cornerback position on teams that use a lot of Cover-2 zone coverage. The Bills have a stud IDP CB option in Terrence McGee, but there’s room for another physical zone corner on the other side. 2006 draftee Ashton Youboty has flashed signs of IDP potential, but remains inconsistent and Jabari Greer is a better fit as a third or fourth corner. A corner drafted here with the usual Tampa-2 profile – physical and willing run supporter with solid ball skills – warrants close monitoring during the preseason.

Indianapolis Colts (DE) – The Colts defensive line depth chart looks deeper than it is. Dwight Freeney is trying to recover from a significant foot injury and may not be ready until late in training camp. Robert Mathis saw his IDP value drop precipitously after the Colts went to a run/pass rotation with Josh Thomas and Jeff Charleston. Raheem Brock can play outside, but is more efficient in the undertackle role. The Colts’ Tampa-2 scheme puts a premium on edge rushers. Should Indianapolis move on an edge rushing talent in the early rounds, it could mean that Freeney’s rehab isn’t progressing as well as hoped and that an opportunity may be there for the taking.

Atlanta Falcons (LB) – Keith Brooking is admirably playing out of position in the middle for the Falcons and is expected to continue in that role this season. With Stephen Nicholas (presumably) and Michael Boley safe in the OLB slots, the Falcons are likely to look to bring another young backer into the mix to compete with 2007 undrafted CFA Tony Taylor.

Jacksonville Jaguars (S) – The Jaguars’ safety role hadn’t been productive until Sammy Knight brought his golden touch to Jacksonville last year. The Jags have Gerald Sensabaugh around, but he’s fighting serious shoulder problems. There were also rumors of moving Rashean Mathis or Brian Williams to safety after the signing of Drayton Florence in free agency, but the team could choose to draft a more physical player with some cover skills. Given the history of shaky production, a rookie isn’t likely to have immediate value, but will still be worth watching.

Kansas City Chiefs (LB) – At first glance, linebacker would appear to be a position of strength in Kansas City. However, the Chiefs are rumored to be disappointed with MLB Napoleon Harris and neither Donnie Edwards nor Demorrio Williams are viable long-term replacements in the middle. A physical talent with cover skills would be a nice fit here and an interesting roster in dynasty leagues.

Miami Dolphins (LB) – For now, it would appear that Channing Crowder is penciled into the favored WILB role in Bill Parcells’ 3-4 scheme. New head coach Tony Sparano won’t confirm, but has dropped strong hints that the Dolphins will stick with a 3-4 front, rather than a hybrid or multiple front scheme. Crowder could succeed as the WILB in 2008, but will be a free agent at season’s end. Parcells loves big linebackers that move well, and, while Bradie James didn’t work out as an every down player, long time IDP owners fondly remember the stat lines of guys like Marvin Jones and Pepper Johnson in the 1990s. Watch to see if Parcells tips his hand in the early rounds of this draft.

Pittsburgh Steelers (LB) – James Farrior is in a contract year and Larry Foote’s deal is up after 2009. Last year’s first rounder, Lawrence Timmons is lurking as a potential ILB option, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Steelers bring in another talent to compete. The Steeler defense has consistently had fewer opportunities than any other unit in the NFL, but there’s still IDP value to be found in the every down ILB in Pittsburgh’s 3-4.

 
Cincinnati LB - WLB should be avaiable

Denver LB - Niko is a stop-gap at best

Houston S - No legitimate answers on the roster

New York Giants LB - Wilkinson may be a typical underachieving Georgia Tech LB

Washington S - The FS and SS may be interchangeable in the new scheme

New Orleans LB - Dan Morgan or Scott Shanle?

St Louis LB - Pisa can't stay healthy and isn't overly productive

Atlanta S - Bad teams, many opportunities

 
Cincinnati LB - WLB should be avaiableDenver LB - Niko is a stop-gap at bestHouston S - No legitimate answers on the rosterNew York Giants LB - Wilkinson may be a typical underachieving Georgia Tech LBWashington S - The FS and SS may be interchangeable in the new schemeNew Orleans LB - Dan Morgan or Scott Shanle?St Louis LB - Pisa can't stay healthy and isn't overly productiveAtlanta S - Bad teams, many opportunities
:confused:Although the Bengals routinely confuse me and might well throw a curve ball in the first round or two, all these situations are likely to be addressed in the later rounds. Right fit, right opportunity means nice value for sure.Definitely should have had the Giants LB position in this article. And I'm very interested in whether the Broncos address their LB situation early. I'm with you, it'll give us a very good idea of what they think of Koutouvides.
 
Surprised Connor did not go in first 2 rounds.

Mayo and Rivers are both good /solid players...but I am not a big fan of where they are. Mayo could put up decent numbers in NE, but I don't see him ever being a stud in that defense. Rivers should start at WLB in Cincy and be solid but not spectacular.

Lofton in ATL could be interesting. Just seems like a tackling machine. Also will have to watch Dizon in Det...although I am not a big fan of him. Chance of being the starting MLB there keeps him on radar.

 
In a tackle heavy league that requires a DB/S, how much value do the first to CB's hold?

1) Leodis McKelvin to Buffalo at #11 overall (one of the spots listed in the OP)

2) Aqib Talib to Tampa Bay at #20 overall

:pickle: I assume Tampa still runs the Tampa-2 (I haven't thought about IDP since the end of week 16 last year :bag: )

If both of these guys are rookie corners in a Cover-2 with a solid CB on the other side, I assume that's a great formula for tackle numbers, right? In insight on the two guys and their situations would be awesome. TIA.

 
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In a tackle heavy league that requires a DB/S, how much value do the first to CB's hold?1) Leodis McKelvin to Buffalo at #11 overall (one of the spots listed in the OP)2) Aqib Talib to Tampa Bay at #20 overall:goodposting: I assume Tampa still runs the Tampa-2 (I haven't thought about IDP since the end of week 16 last year :lmao: )If both of these guys are rookie corners in a Cover-2 with a solid CB on the other side, I assume that's a great formula for tackle numbers, right? In insight on the two guys and their situations would be awesome. TIA.
I like Talib between these two. From what I have seen he plays the run better. I think McKelvin is more of a cover corner and not that great in run support so tackles might not come from him too often.
 
In a tackle heavy league that requires a DB/S, how much value do the first to CB's hold?

1) Leodis McKelvin to Buffalo at #11 overall (one of the spots listed in the OP)

2) Aqib Talib to Tampa Bay at #20 overall

:shrug: I assume Tampa still runs the Tampa-2 (I haven't thought about IDP since the end of week 16 last year :lmao: )

If both of these guys are rookie corners in a Cover-2 with a solid CB on the other side, I assume that's a great formula for tackle numbers, right? In insight on the two guys and their situations would be awesome. TIA.
I like Talib between these two. From what I have seen he plays the run better. I think McKelvin is more of a cover corner and not that great in run support so tackles might not come from him too often.
McKelvin has me scratin' my head, :thumbup: we may see Buffalo playing less zone. Unusual to see Cover/Tampa-2 teams draft CB's that early. Good corner, just doesn't seem like the right scheme for him. Talib, OTOH ... should fits like a glove.
 
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Jenkins in Dallas could be something to watch....

K Phillips in NYG is kind of worthless... with Sammy Knight there, Phillips will be playing FS.

Aqib Talib to Tampa Bay at #20 overall.. he could make a good Tampa CB.

 
Jenkins in Dallas could be something to watch....

K Phillips in NYG is kind of worthless... with Sammy Knight there, Phillips will be playing FS.

Aqib Talib to Tampa Bay at #20 overall.. he could make a good Tampa CB.
Careful here. Phillips will play FS, but in the same scheme that made excellent value of guys like Brian Dawkins and Gibril Wilson. Whether Phillips can play up to that level remains to be seen, but he's got the profile to fit in that scheme. Don't dismiss him yet.Agree on Talib, again assuming his instincts translate to a faster league.

 
Tell me about this Gooden guy that the Ravens just took.

Someone need to dail in and remind these teams that Dan Connor is still on the board...

 
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Tell me about this Gooden guy that the Ravens just took.

Someone need to dail in and remind these teams that Dan Connor is still on the board...
I've been blogging through the defensive players in the IDP NFL Draft thread over the past couple of days. Just added this on Gooden.3.71 -- LB TAVARES GOODEN -- Baltimore Ravens

First of the linebackers off the board to land in a key "heir apparent" slot. Very likely to take over for Ray Lewis, who will be a free agent after this year. Very athletic and rangy, but scouts have questioned his instincts. He'll have another U alum to mentor him. Good chance to grow into a very good NFL player and IDP value.

 
Baltimore Ravens (LB) – 2008 is the last year of Ray Lewis’ contract. The Ravens drafted two linebackers in 2007, but neither Prescott Burgess nor Antwan Barnes are likely to be a long-term answer at MLB. Mike Smith and Bart Scott could potentially move into the middle, but the Ravens may draft Lewis’ heir this year. The right fit could have plenty of value in 2009 and beyond.
good call on the heir replacement for Ray Lewis. Ray Lewis's contract demands might be too much. Tavares Gooden is someone to hold onto
Atlanta Falcons (LB) – Keith Brooking is admirably playing out of position in the middle for the Falcons and is expected to continue in that role this season. With Stephen Nicholas (presumably) and Michael Boley safe in the OLB slots, the Falcons are likely to look to bring another young backer into the mix to compete with 2007 undrafted CFA Tony Taylor.
Brooking's cap charge in 09 will be too much at 8.3 million. He'll prob be asked to restructure, maybe cut because of age and loss of step. Lofton looks like another heir replacement to hold onto.
 

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