Jene Bramel
Footballguy
This article should be posted on the main page before tomorrow morning, but I figured I'd post it for the diehards in here early.
IDP OPPORTUNITY AND THE NFL DRAFT
With only a rare free agent or two of note left on the market, IDP owners should now be turning their attention to the NFL Draft. Here’s a look at some of the most attractive situations for a defensive rookie to land during the 2008 draft.
Detroit Lions (LB) – Paris Lenon is rumored to be moving to the strong side in Detroit in the near future. Though the Lions have a couple of interesting prospects (Anthony Cannon, Buster Davis) waiting in the wings, this is another MLB role ripe for the taking before the 2009 season begins.
Minnesota Vikings (DE) – Erasmus James has yet to prove himself capable or healthy enough to play every down and is again rehabbing an ACL injury. Kenechi Udeze is very unlikely to play in 2008 after being diagnosed with leukemia this offseason. Brian Robison has the inside track at a much larger role this year, but may not be an every down player. Assuming the team doesn’t acquire Jared Allen, the Vikings will likely be in the market for another pass rusher in this draft.
Kansas City Chiefs (CB) – The Chiefs are another team that uses a lot of zone coverage. With Patrick Surtain the only proven corner on the roster, Kansas City could bring in another body to compete with CFA surprises Dimitri Patterson and Tyron Brackenridge.
Baltimore Ravens (LB) – 2008 is the last year of Ray Lewis’ contract. The Ravens drafted two linebackers in 2007, but neither Prescott Burgess nor Antwan Barnes are likely to be a long-term answer at MLB. Mike Smith and Bart Scott could potentially move into the middle, but the Ravens may draft Lewis’ heir this year. The right fit could have plenty of value in 2009 and beyond.
New England Patriots (LB) – It has not been Bill Belichick’s style to draft linebackers early; he prefers experienced vets that can quickly grasp his multiple front scheme. There were plenty of rumors that Belichick was considering David Harris last year, however, and there’s still room after the Victor Hobson signing to bring in a youngster to develop.
Buffalo Bills (CB) – One of our pet situations to track is the cornerback position on teams that use a lot of Cover-2 zone coverage. The Bills have a stud IDP CB option in Terrence McGee, but there’s room for another physical zone corner on the other side. 2006 draftee Ashton Youboty has flashed signs of IDP potential, but remains inconsistent and Jabari Greer is a better fit as a third or fourth corner. A corner drafted here with the usual Tampa-2 profile – physical and willing run supporter with solid ball skills – warrants close monitoring during the preseason.
Indianapolis Colts (DE) – The Colts defensive line depth chart looks deeper than it is. Dwight Freeney is trying to recover from a significant foot injury and may not be ready until late in training camp. Robert Mathis saw his IDP value drop precipitously after the Colts went to a run/pass rotation with Josh Thomas and Jeff Charleston. Raheem Brock can play outside, but is more efficient in the undertackle role. The Colts’ Tampa-2 scheme puts a premium on edge rushers. Should Indianapolis move on an edge rushing talent in the early rounds, it could mean that Freeney’s rehab isn’t progressing as well as hoped and that an opportunity may be there for the taking.
Atlanta Falcons (LB) – Keith Brooking is admirably playing out of position in the middle for the Falcons and is expected to continue in that role this season. With Stephen Nicholas (presumably) and Michael Boley safe in the OLB slots, the Falcons are likely to look to bring another young backer into the mix to compete with 2007 undrafted CFA Tony Taylor.
Jacksonville Jaguars (S) – The Jaguars’ safety role hadn’t been productive until Sammy Knight brought his golden touch to Jacksonville last year. The Jags have Gerald Sensabaugh around, but he’s fighting serious shoulder problems. There were also rumors of moving Rashean Mathis or Brian Williams to safety after the signing of Drayton Florence in free agency, but the team could choose to draft a more physical player with some cover skills. Given the history of shaky production, a rookie isn’t likely to have immediate value, but will still be worth watching.
Kansas City Chiefs (LB) – At first glance, linebacker would appear to be a position of strength in Kansas City. However, the Chiefs are rumored to be disappointed with MLB Napoleon Harris and neither Donnie Edwards nor Demorrio Williams are viable long-term replacements in the middle. A physical talent with cover skills would be a nice fit here and an interesting roster in dynasty leagues.
Miami Dolphins (LB) – For now, it would appear that Channing Crowder is penciled into the favored WILB role in Bill Parcells’ 3-4 scheme. New head coach Tony Sparano won’t confirm, but has dropped strong hints that the Dolphins will stick with a 3-4 front, rather than a hybrid or multiple front scheme. Crowder could succeed as the WILB in 2008, but will be a free agent at season’s end. Parcells loves big linebackers that move well, and, while Bradie James didn’t work out as an every down player, long time IDP owners fondly remember the stat lines of guys like Marvin Jones and Pepper Johnson in the 1990s. Watch to see if Parcells tips his hand in the early rounds of this draft.
Pittsburgh Steelers (LB) – James Farrior is in a contract year and Larry Foote’s deal is up after 2009. Last year’s first rounder, Lawrence Timmons is lurking as a potential ILB option, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Steelers bring in another talent to compete. The Steeler defense has consistently had fewer opportunities than any other unit in the NFL, but there’s still IDP value to be found in the every down ILB in Pittsburgh’s 3-4.
IDP OPPORTUNITY AND THE NFL DRAFT
With only a rare free agent or two of note left on the market, IDP owners should now be turning their attention to the NFL Draft. Here’s a look at some of the most attractive situations for a defensive rookie to land during the 2008 draft.
Detroit Lions (LB) – Paris Lenon is rumored to be moving to the strong side in Detroit in the near future. Though the Lions have a couple of interesting prospects (Anthony Cannon, Buster Davis) waiting in the wings, this is another MLB role ripe for the taking before the 2009 season begins.
Minnesota Vikings (DE) – Erasmus James has yet to prove himself capable or healthy enough to play every down and is again rehabbing an ACL injury. Kenechi Udeze is very unlikely to play in 2008 after being diagnosed with leukemia this offseason. Brian Robison has the inside track at a much larger role this year, but may not be an every down player. Assuming the team doesn’t acquire Jared Allen, the Vikings will likely be in the market for another pass rusher in this draft.
Kansas City Chiefs (CB) – The Chiefs are another team that uses a lot of zone coverage. With Patrick Surtain the only proven corner on the roster, Kansas City could bring in another body to compete with CFA surprises Dimitri Patterson and Tyron Brackenridge.
Baltimore Ravens (LB) – 2008 is the last year of Ray Lewis’ contract. The Ravens drafted two linebackers in 2007, but neither Prescott Burgess nor Antwan Barnes are likely to be a long-term answer at MLB. Mike Smith and Bart Scott could potentially move into the middle, but the Ravens may draft Lewis’ heir this year. The right fit could have plenty of value in 2009 and beyond.
New England Patriots (LB) – It has not been Bill Belichick’s style to draft linebackers early; he prefers experienced vets that can quickly grasp his multiple front scheme. There were plenty of rumors that Belichick was considering David Harris last year, however, and there’s still room after the Victor Hobson signing to bring in a youngster to develop.
Buffalo Bills (CB) – One of our pet situations to track is the cornerback position on teams that use a lot of Cover-2 zone coverage. The Bills have a stud IDP CB option in Terrence McGee, but there’s room for another physical zone corner on the other side. 2006 draftee Ashton Youboty has flashed signs of IDP potential, but remains inconsistent and Jabari Greer is a better fit as a third or fourth corner. A corner drafted here with the usual Tampa-2 profile – physical and willing run supporter with solid ball skills – warrants close monitoring during the preseason.
Indianapolis Colts (DE) – The Colts defensive line depth chart looks deeper than it is. Dwight Freeney is trying to recover from a significant foot injury and may not be ready until late in training camp. Robert Mathis saw his IDP value drop precipitously after the Colts went to a run/pass rotation with Josh Thomas and Jeff Charleston. Raheem Brock can play outside, but is more efficient in the undertackle role. The Colts’ Tampa-2 scheme puts a premium on edge rushers. Should Indianapolis move on an edge rushing talent in the early rounds, it could mean that Freeney’s rehab isn’t progressing as well as hoped and that an opportunity may be there for the taking.
Atlanta Falcons (LB) – Keith Brooking is admirably playing out of position in the middle for the Falcons and is expected to continue in that role this season. With Stephen Nicholas (presumably) and Michael Boley safe in the OLB slots, the Falcons are likely to look to bring another young backer into the mix to compete with 2007 undrafted CFA Tony Taylor.
Jacksonville Jaguars (S) – The Jaguars’ safety role hadn’t been productive until Sammy Knight brought his golden touch to Jacksonville last year. The Jags have Gerald Sensabaugh around, but he’s fighting serious shoulder problems. There were also rumors of moving Rashean Mathis or Brian Williams to safety after the signing of Drayton Florence in free agency, but the team could choose to draft a more physical player with some cover skills. Given the history of shaky production, a rookie isn’t likely to have immediate value, but will still be worth watching.
Kansas City Chiefs (LB) – At first glance, linebacker would appear to be a position of strength in Kansas City. However, the Chiefs are rumored to be disappointed with MLB Napoleon Harris and neither Donnie Edwards nor Demorrio Williams are viable long-term replacements in the middle. A physical talent with cover skills would be a nice fit here and an interesting roster in dynasty leagues.
Miami Dolphins (LB) – For now, it would appear that Channing Crowder is penciled into the favored WILB role in Bill Parcells’ 3-4 scheme. New head coach Tony Sparano won’t confirm, but has dropped strong hints that the Dolphins will stick with a 3-4 front, rather than a hybrid or multiple front scheme. Crowder could succeed as the WILB in 2008, but will be a free agent at season’s end. Parcells loves big linebackers that move well, and, while Bradie James didn’t work out as an every down player, long time IDP owners fondly remember the stat lines of guys like Marvin Jones and Pepper Johnson in the 1990s. Watch to see if Parcells tips his hand in the early rounds of this draft.
Pittsburgh Steelers (LB) – James Farrior is in a contract year and Larry Foote’s deal is up after 2009. Last year’s first rounder, Lawrence Timmons is lurking as a potential ILB option, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Steelers bring in another talent to compete. The Steeler defense has consistently had fewer opportunities than any other unit in the NFL, but there’s still IDP value to be found in the every down ILB in Pittsburgh’s 3-4.