IDP Roundtable Dynasty Edition (1 Viewer)

[Jene Bramel]

We're working to put some dynasty rankings together, but they'll be a work in progress of sorts. The raw rankings themselves are usually difficult to interpret -- how much weight is put on Year 2/3, what to do with injured veterans and stopgaps with upside, should I be trading lower ranked players for higher ranked players, etc -- so we thought we'd add a little flavor to the discussion by taking questions.

To keep the content helpful for everyone, we'd appreciate if you kept the questions as general as possible. Things like "compare and contrast X/Y/Z" are very welcome, strategy and gestalt questions are great, too.

We'll take the show wherever you all want it to go, however, so fire away.

And thanks, as always, for listening.

 

[Young 8]

DeAndre Levy/Lions LBs situation

 

[grantsa4]

Jene, howcome D Tapp is so high? Is that ranking based off his upside when starting?

Howcome Osi is only at 10 after being a top 5 guy? Is this a sign for the future?

Is it far enough along in the season yet to start noticing guys who could be good next season? Like the Timmons and Durants last year?

 

[CataclysmicThunder]

What is Ricky Brown's long-term value? Reports out of camp consistently suggested that Kirk Morrison had fallen out of favor with the organization because of his chronic lack of stoutness and aggressiveness in run defense. There was even talk that Morrison might be moved to strong side, as supposedly his skill set would lend itself to better success at that position, all to make way for the reputedly more physical (and cheaper) Brown in the middle, and while that never transpired, it seemed to suggest that the organization was high on the promising Brown. Do you foresee him manning the middle of that Raiders defense in 2010? Is Brown worth stashing? Thank you. You gentlemen do a fine job on this website.

 

[CataclysmicThunder]

DeAndre Levy/Lions LBs situation

 

[maxwelledison]

DeAndre Levy/Lions LBs situation

:(

Any (NFL team) D-Lines we should look out for to mine productive players on the cheap?

 

[future_itisnow]

What is Ricky Brown's long-term value? Reports out of camp consistently suggested that Kirk Morrison had fallen out of favor with the organization because of his chronic lack of stoutness and aggressiveness in run defense. There was even talk that Morrison might be moved to strong side, as supposedly his skill set would lend itself to better success at that position, all to make way for the reputedly more physical (and cheaper) Brown in the middle, and while that never transpired, it seemed to suggest that the organization was high on the promising Brown. Do you foresee him manning the middle of that Raiders defense in 2010? Is Brown worth stashing? Thank you. You gentlemen do a fine job on this website.

+1 on this. Is Brown worth a roster spot over underperforming guys like Crowder/Sims/Burnett heading to next season?

 

[myronzip92]

Dear Jene:

- NE Safeties: Who is the star for 2009 and the Future? Is McGowan for real?

- PHI MLB: I know Will Witherspoon is an injury replacement, but does he have value in 2010? Who has the most Dynasty value from this position?

Thanks, and bring back your SLEEPER PICKS!!!

 

[anakin]

How will the Oakland safety positions flesh out: Mitchell, Branch, Huff and who if any will have the best dynasty value?

 

[kurtrudder]

I'd like to hear about the various teams that are in injury trouble at various defensive positions (i.e Buffalo DB's/LB's) with the deep Dynasty angle taken into consideration. Probably with these situations I am looking for flyers/deep sleepers, kind of guys who should be on the WW in every league.

 

[The Comedian]

There's another thread on this already, but it'd be great to hear some thoughts on Vilma.

Daryl Smith a sell high?

Timmons be a buy-low? Well, was he up until this past week?

 

[J Giles Band]

A consensus top 5-10 dynasty ranking by position (DL, LB, DB) would be interesting... thanks!

 

[Dolphins Homer]

Do you anticipate any teams converting back to the 4-3 during the offseason and which players would benefit.

Where do the rookie DL guys rank given their slow start / lack of opportunity this year?

Does Maualuga move to the middle next year as rumored or only when D Jones is injured? What impact would this have on K Rivers?

 

[canuck king]

I'd be interested in hearing about guys that have dual eligibility in fantasy...for example Dumervil lb/dl in fantasy leagues...they have added value as most lb's are more productive than a normal full time dl...

 

[JaxBill]

What's the outlook for Connor Barwin? Is he still in over his head since he only played 1 year of defense at Cincy? Or will he improve if Mario Williams gets healthier?

 

[Jene Bramel]

The podcast should be released sometime today. We got to many of these questions, but the late breaking news on D'Qwell Jackson and Will Witherspoon limited our time. I'll try to make it through most of these in the next day or two.----------

DeAndre Levy/Lions LBs situation

If possible, this became more difficult to figure out this week. In the first four plays against the Packers, the Lions sent out five different linebackers. Despite what the Gamebook says, Levy and Peterson started alongside Foote. By the end of the first series, Julian Peterson and Larry Foote had played every down. Peterson played a traditional ROLB role, moved out as a slot corner and rushed from a three point stance. Both Ernie Sims and Jordon Dizon had replaced Levy in a nickel snap. Earlier in the year, Levy had played an every down role and Dizon (before and after Levy) rarely but sometimes came in for Foote in the nickel.From a dynasty perspective, I think Levy has shown enough that he's going to have an every-down role somewhere in the lineup next year. Sims can't stay healthy, wasn't playing particularly well again and has been benched for Levy at times. Foote is a vet and has taken the most snaps so far but is only signed through this season. The only player I'd count on having value in 2010 and beyond from this group is Levy.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Jene, howcome D Tapp is so high? Is that ranking based off his upside when starting?Howcome Osi is only at 10 after being a top 5 guy? Is this a sign for the future?Is it far enough along in the season yet to start noticing guys who could be good next season? Like the Timmons and Durants last year?

Tapp's ranking is based on my interest in upside when most everything else is equal and my belief that Patrick Kerney cannot be trusted to stay healthy after the first month of the season. Tapp has proven that he can play the run and pass rush and I strongly expect him to get a larger role as the season ends and into next year.Umenyiora is entering Julius Peppers territory for me. He's not consistent enough to be considered in the topmost tier any longer and he's yet to explode often enough to rank ahead of Mathis, Peppers and Schobel.It's never too early to be looking for players who are showing ability in rotational time. I'm generally looking for guys that have two-way potential -- they've proven they can make tackles and successfully finish pass rush. Guys like William Hayes and Cliff Avril, Darryl Tapp and Charles Johnson have shown either on film or in the line scores that they have 4-1-1 weekly potential. Guys like Kroy Biermann and Victor Abiamiri look promising but are missing something. Jury's still out on guys like Michael Johnson, Lawrence Sidbury, Everette Brown, etc. Depending on the depth of your rosters and the caliber of your leaguemates, sometimes you need to move before opportunity presents itself, sometimes you can wait until the path is clearer.

 

[Jene Bramel]

What is Ricky Brown's long-term value? Reports out of camp consistently suggested that Kirk Morrison had fallen out of favor with the organization because of his chronic lack of stoutness and aggressiveness in run defense. There was even talk that Morrison might be moved to strong side, as supposedly his skill set would lend itself to better success at that position, all to make way for the reputedly more physical (and cheaper) Brown in the middle, and while that never transpired, it seemed to suggest that the organization was high on the promising Brown. Do you foresee him manning the middle of that Raiders defense in 2010? Is Brown worth stashing? Thank you. You gentlemen do a fine job on this website.

I'm not particularly high on Brown. The Raiders keep pushing him into a larger role, Morrison keeps pushing him back. All offseason and camp, he was given a chance to prove himself worthy of a longer term deal as the future MLB. Morrison won the job. Brown forced his way into the nickel packages surprisingly and promptly got injured.Right now, neither player is signed for 2010. I think it's just as likely that the Raiders' 2010 MLB is not on the roster right now. Given what the Raiders are doing, Brown has a better chance than Morrison. Morrison won't be franchised and I can't see him back in a Raider uniform after what's happened during the last six months.Brown's a good candidate to stash if you've got the space. Don't plan your 2010 season with the expectation that he fills a starting slot for you and you won't be disappointed.

 

[Jene Bramel]

DeAndre Levy/Lions LBs situation

Any (NFL team) D-Lines we should look out for to mine productive players on the cheap?

See my reply to grantsa4 above for my midseason philosophy toward DL in a dynasty league. Though the league is moving toward 3-4 and multiple fronts, many of the 4-3 teams have some interesting talent coming up and possible openings. There are more teams than not with potentials. With a little luck, we'll get a mini-renaissance of talent at the DE position next year.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Dear Jene:- NE Safeties: Who is the star for 2009 and the Future? Is McGowan for real?- PHI MLB: I know Will Witherspoon is an injury replacement, but does he have value in 2010? Who has the most Dynasty value from this position?Thanks, and bring back your SLEEPER PICKS!!!

We did some sleeper and upside picks just for you this week. McGowan is always productive. He doesn't take bad angles and he doesn't miss tackles. He's a better big play value than he looks. But it's hard to see him as the next Yeremiah Bell -- a guy that's floated around a bit and finally made someone take notice of his play -- with Patrick Chung in the pipeline. Chung was a hand-picked 2nd rounder and it's not unusual to see Belichick take his time with a secondary player. I think Chung is more likely to hold value in the NE secondary next year than McGowan.I think it's Gocong-Bradley-Witherspoon in 2010. Witherspoon wasn't a priority target until Gaither went down and Trotter was exploited and the team still likes Bradley. I think Witherspoon probably has an early leg up on Gaither/Jordan if he plays well, but his 2010 value probably looks a lot like his early 09 value.

 

[Jene Bramel]

How will the Oakland safety positions flesh out: Mitchell, Branch, Huff and who if any will have the best dynasty value?

I think it's Branch and Mitchell next season, assuming Mitchell plays well enough and stays healthy -- two decent sized hurdles for now. Hard to handicap who plays where, but it'll be the SS with very strong value again next year. Especially good value if the Raiders end up with a stopgap like Ricky Brown at MLB. I might be guilty of dismissing him too soon, but I don't think Huff is much more than a weaker run-supporting version of Ken Hamlin.

 

[Jene Bramel]

I'd like to hear about the various teams that are in injury trouble at various defensive positions (i.e Buffalo DB's/LB's) with the deep Dynasty angle taken into consideration. Probably with these situations I am looking for flyers/deep sleepers, kind of guys who should be on the WW in every league.

Names that immediately come to mind include:Michael Johnson -- Jonathan Fanene may be hard to move out on base downs, but Johnson has an opportunity to prove himself if the Bengals give him a shot.Nick Roach -- Long term outlook here, but has a chance to show himself as the long-term replacement for Urlacher in 2011 and beyond with a good showing now.David Hawthorne -- May never be a long-term option in Seattle, but projects much better than Niko Koutovides did in 2011 and beyond.Ashlee Palmer -- Looks unlikely to be more effective than Keith Ellison, but there's opportunity to be had in Buffalo.Patrick Chung/William Moore/Kevin Ellison/Malcolm Jenkins and a few others deserve consideration, too.Lesser names: Lawrence Jackson (rather have Tapp), Darcel McBath, Lawrence Sidbury.I'll be starting my annual position-by-position deep dynasty target review in the weekly column in two weeks.

 

[Jene Bramel]

There's another thread on this already, but it'd be great to hear some thoughts on Vilma. Daryl Smith a sell high?Timmons be a buy-low? Well, was he up until this past week?

I think Vilma's being bitten by a few things -- generally poor tackle opportunity and rush attempts against, SS in the box often, better than expected play against the run from his line, more competition from the OLBs and a smattering of 3-4 snaps. If you've got Daryl Smith rostered and can get anything of value for him, I'd do it immediately if not sooner. And if you can buy low on Timmons, I'd be all over it. His upside only gets better as he adjusts to his run fits and the Steelers phase out Farrior. Most owners with Timmons know what they have. They've either held through a long three seasons waiting for the payoff or held through the ankle injury after grabbing him on the wire with high expectations. He's one of those guys that could be called an underperformer with a disproportionately high price tag.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Do you anticipate any teams converting back to the 4-3 during the offseason and which players would benefit.Where do the rookie DL guys rank given their slow start / lack of opportunity this year?Does Maualuga move to the middle next year as rumored or only when D Jones is injured? What impact would this have on K Rivers?

I don't see any obvious new defensive trends right now, and certainly not one back toward the 4-3. Most of the hottest DC candidates were plucked from the ranks over the past two years. The unexpectedly good defenses (i.e. DEN, NYJ) are teams with hybrid schemes for the most part. Sean McDermott (PHI) is the only immediate new HC candidate that would run a 4-3 coming to mind.Rookie DL rankings for me haven't changed from the preseason -- there wasn't anyone on the list that looked likely to be ready immediately. It's still Johnson-Brown-Sidbury-Barwin for me, with Jackson/Maybin moving down and Jarmon garnering some consideration.Maualuga didn't do himself any favors overrunning plays against Houston last week, but if Mike Zimmer stays in Cincinnati he'll terrorize the front office until they let him coach up Maualuga inside all offseason. I'd plan for Maualuga to be the MLB next year. Every-down roles are still hard to handicap, but it's not reassuring that Rivers hasn't been able to force aside Brandon Johnson yet.I'd like to see Jeanty-Maualuga-Rivers myself in the long term, but free agency and the draft may change up the playbook a bit depending on how Michael Johnson progresses. Very much a work in progress here despite the overall defensive improvement.

 

[Jene Bramel]

I'd be interested in hearing about guys that have dual eligibility in fantasy...for example Dumervil lb/dl in fantasy leagues...they have added value as most lb's are more productive than a normal full time dl...

All my leagues are in MFL, so I'm not aware of any specific names.Essentially, however, any tweener with 45 solo tackle/8 sack potential is a stud DL.

 

[Jene Bramel]

What's the outlook for Connor Barwin? Is he still in over his head since he only played 1 year of defense at Cincy? Or will he improve if Mario Williams gets healthier?

I didn't get the hype on Barwin this offseason. He's an athlete, but he's not an edge rusher. It's going to take awhile for him to learn an array of pass rush moves and bulk up enough to make leverage work for him. He's not Jared Allen in the making, regardless of his surrounding cast. Maybe an Aaron Schobel/Mike Rucker type if he gets there, but it's at least a year off.

 

[tec79]

Jene-

whats the deal in Washington with Horton and Doughty? I recall last year Doughty had a stint where he was impressive then replaced by Horton;this year it seems to be the opposite. I have Horton in Dynasty league along with Page (KC) which should i hold onto?

thanks

tx

 

[canuck king]

What's the outlook for Connor Barwin? Is he still in over his head since he only played 1 year of defense at Cincy? Or will he improve if Mario Williams gets healthier?

I didn't get the hype on Barwin this offseason. He's an athlete, but he's not an edge rusher. It's going to take awhile for him to learn an array of pass rush moves and bulk up enough to make leverage work for him. He's not Jared Allen in the making, regardless of his surrounding cast. Maybe an Aaron Schobel/Mike Rucker type if he gets there, but it's at least a year off.

Jene, I wouldn't mind hearing updates on idp's that have returner roles, there seems to be a lot of leagues now that have kr/pr yards scoring i'm in a couple...Thxs

 

[ninerfanatic492000]

with the injuries to Stephen Cooper/Kevin Burnett and Tim Dobbins play of late and his strength in run stuffing(obvious chargers weakness), does Dobbins get a extended look? if it be b/c injuries or from Burnett's uninspiring play