IDP Studs vs. IDP Young Talent (1 Viewer)

[Mr. Deuce]

After reading Brammel's guide to building an IDP dynasty, one tip was to hold on to your IDP Studs. Now, as someone who has only fairly recently switched my attention towards the IDP side of the ball, I have gathered what I believe is an array of youth and talent at all positions (DL, LB, DB). Prior to this influx of defensive players, I had literally no one who I could count on. While some of these players have developed, their roles on my team are not clearly defined (as most haven't quite developed). I don't want this to become a "rate my team" or a "who should I trade", but rather, an example of what can be done in dynasty leagues.

In certain cases when, if there is a time, you may want to cash in some of your younger IDP talent for a more sure thing (ie. IDP studs, or middle aged studs/semi-studs like top 15-20). But in a way this can be seend as trading the future for the present (ie. a chance to win now). This method is different in IDP because the turnover year-to-year is not that great for non-stud IDP. A stud IDP is less likely to fall off the charts and remain in the top tier or point yielding range than an unknown or "un-stud".

When do you know when it's time to trade some of your younger "future stars" for a more sure thing or stud IDP? An example would be for me is to package some sort of deal with say Channing Crowder + change for Keith Bulluck, or a Nick Collins and Chris Gamble for a Troy Polamalu. Are these deals realistic? If you were on the receiving end of a trade like this (young, upside IDPs for your stud IDP), would you take it?



DL

Williams, Kevin MIN DT

Dumervil, Elvis DEN DE ®

Howard, Darren PHI DE

James, Erasmus MIN DE

Rucker, Mike CAR DE

Smith, Justin CIN DE

LBs

Arrington, Lavar NYG LB

Brackett, Gary IND LB

Dansby, Karlos ARI LB

Crowell, Angelo BUF LB

Crowder, Channing MIA LB

Fincher, Alfred NOS LB

Hayes, Gerald ARI LB

Henderson, E.J. MIN LB

Hodge, Abdul GBP LB ®

Ruud, Barrett TBB LB

Sims, Ernie DET LB ®

Smith, Daryl JAC LB

DBs

Gamble, Chris CAR CB

Williams, Darrent DEN CB

Bullocks, Josh NOS S

Coleman, Erik NYJ S

Collins, Nick GBP S

Dawkins, Brian PHI S

Harper, Roman NOS S ®

Hope, Chris TEN S

Knight, Sammy KCC S

Pool, Brodney CLE S

Smith, Dwight MIN S

Taylor, Sean WAS S

If you are interested, this is standard Zealot scoring (1pt tak, 3pt sck, 3pt int, 2pt ff,fr) (start 2DL, 2LB, 2DB, 2flex). Is it time for me to try and "cash" in or am I delusional about the amount of talent I have?

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

In Zealots, since you start only 2 of each level of the defense, the value of studs is increased. I recommend trades like you describe (cash in your studs) in leagues where you start a full 11, because those youth you're getting is immediately startable. In leagues where you only start 2 from each level, there will be better talent on the waiver wire - so having top 10-15 options is more important. I would keep my studs until the writing was clearly on the wall that they were fading - such as with Donnie Edwards this year.

 

[Jene Bramel]

It's not an easy question to answer and I'm sure others will have a different viewpoint than I do. In general, I lean to the pretty aggressive side of roster management -- more than happy to trade offense for defense or overpay with young talent if I've a shot of winning mid-season -- but your situation may be different.

I don't think your delusional but without seeing your offensive roster, this looks more like a team still building toward a championship. An equally important part of my strategy is to get talent and hold talent. Groundbreaking I know, but it warrants mentioning. Unless you have a stable full of ready-made offensive talent edging toward the downside of their career, I hold all that young talent until it blossoms. You're not sure which of those guys may become your generation of studs and you don't want to deal them until you do or unless you're getting a clearly good deal. Your team moves in cycles and you need to know exactly where you are. Perfect timing can mean a team capable of winning every single year as you recycle your team well. Making moves a year early or a year late can kill you for years at a time.

If you can trade Channing Crowder and change for Keith Bulluck that's clearly worth doing. Bulluck will probably remain an anchor for you for a couple more seasons. Most think Crowder has a chance at becoming a top ten player when Zach Thomas is done, but that's just speculation and we're no closer to predicting when that'll happen than we were last year. A deal like Gamble and Collins is technically overpaying for Polamalu, but if you're significantly improving your starting lineup while not really hurting your depth, sometimes spitting in the face of value is worth it. Especially if you are confident you can get over in other ways -- better drafting, better waiver decisions, other trades.

It's just as difficult to predict what your potential trading partners will want to do. Everybody will value a player differently and, theoretically, understand in what direction they want their team to go. But, more often, any given owner has seriously overrated his chances before the season begins. You're more likely to pull these deals off near the deadline or before the draft (when your picks are more valuable trading chips). If you're trading with me, I'm not moving those stud players unless I've got someone ready to step in their place or I think I'm getting great value or their replacement in return or I know my team has no shot at winning now.

If I'm you, I hold that core of youngsters with big potential. Many of them should grow up this year. Next year (or mid-season if you're a player or two away) you'll know exactly what you have and can better act on it.

 

[Biabreakable]

I have found that trading IDPs in this format is often dificult to generate interest in your players unless they have made it to elite status. I am doubtful that you will be able to trade quality young IDP depth for known IDP elite players. No team is required to start enough IDPs to warrant such a move.

For the most part I think it is easier to try to trade an offensive player another owner wants for a elite IDP prospect.

Good Rb handcuffs for Lbers for example or a Wr.

Right now is not a good time to try to sell your IDPs with potential. You want to wait until after the 1st game or 1st few games and then depending on which ones are performing well for you then decide if those players will continue to put up good numbers or if they will fade later.

For the most part I would keep a young player who is performing well and hope they continue to play well for me throughout the season. For example Kerry Rhodes last year. He continued to put up good numbers on a struggling Jets team all year long. You have to recognise that teams offenses effect the performance of your IDPs. If a team is struggling this year on offense your IDPs are probobly getting a lot more action and will continue to do so unless you see somthing changing for the team later on in the season like a injured player coming back. Moving forward I still expect Rhodes to put up good numbers this year but I might look to sell him high as I expect the Jets team to improve on both sides of the ball in 2007. You have to look at the whole picture.

A reverse example of this has been Roy Williams. His best year so far was his rookie year. Even after moving back to SS he still hasn't performed up to that level again. And you could have gotten premium value for him in trade after his rookie season.

Of course it depends on what you can get in return for them.

I think for most players owners want to see that young IDP perform well for more than just one season before they will highly value them. Exceptions of this recently have been Barnett, Vilma and now Lofa and Thurman.

Ryans will likely bring premium value in return if he performs as expected this season. I could see you getting Bullock for him after a few weeks.

So with all that in mind early season sells I see for you are:

Fincher, Alfred NOS LB

Hayes, Gerald ARI LB

Both of these guys might put up good numbers right out of the gate. However Fincher has compitition coming and his starting position may not be stable.

Hayes might lose productivity if/when Dansby returns from injury.

Both of these offenses may improve thier TOP as the season goes on if they can improve thier running games.

You might be able to trade Dawkins for somthing of value if your other Dbs look serviceable. Dawkins is old and I think in the last year of his contract. Maybe he is a hold but I think you should get interest from other teams by offering him.

Players who I would hold but consider trading after the season are:

Rucker, Mike CAR DE

Smith, Justin CIN DE

Howard, Darren PHI DE

These players are getting older but should have decent seasons in 2006. Thier situations could change after this year though.

Henderson, E.J. MIN LB

It remains to be seen what will happen with him when Chad Greenway comes back from injury. This is probobly dependent on how Harris does at MLB also. He might be a hold or you might want to move him if it looks like he will be moved to SLB in 2007.

Players to hold and see if thier situation improves in 2007:

Crowder, Channing MIA LB

Hodge, Abdul GBP LB ®

Ruud, Barrett TBB LB

Smith, Daryl JAC LB

All of these guys could become the top Lbers for thier respective teams as veterans there might move on.

Harper, Roman NOS S ®

Bullocks, Josh NOS S

Looks like both are starting. Which one will be better? And will they be long term answers for the Saints? They could be sell highs after the season if you see the Saints offense and Lber group improving which will limit thier potential moving forward.

 

[Tick]

Biabreakable is one of the best traders out there - read what he writes carefully.

Personally, I think age and potential are considered way too much in IDP leagues. If you can get a player who will be better this season, do it. Worry about next season when you have to - on the IDP side, it's much easier to reload both through the wire and through trade throw-ins.

If you can get Zach Thomas, London Fletcher, Derrick Brooks, or Ray Lewis for a top-notch prospect or two (someone like Crowder, Ruud, Greenway, or McIntosh), I say go for it. I wouldn't trade away a guy like Ryans or Sims who are in a situation where they could be great for a long time, but an unproven guy is worth an old stud easily IMO.

 

[Mr. Deuce]

Lot's of good info here, thanks guys!

 

[brakeyawself]

In my Dynasty leagues, im finding it worth while to trade away my older studs like Jason Taylor in deals for young offense, like a Matt Jones if you can get the other owner to budge. Its much easier to get good numbers from unproven guys on D i think. Thats been my habit thus far. Where I traded Taylor and then had my choice of either Hali or Erasmus James off the wire. I think I'd rather take my chance with them for the WR upgrade. But thats just me. Its a bit of a gamble. But if I can get quality offense for my older D, ive been doing it. Not sure if its wise or not though.

 

[Tick]

In my Dynasty leagues, im finding it worth while to trade away my older studs like Jason Taylor in deals for young offense, like a Matt Jones if you can get the other owner to budge. Its much easier to get good numbers from unproven guys on D i think. Thats been my habit thus far. Where I traded Taylor and then had my choice of either Hali or Erasmus James off the wire. I think I'd rather take my chance with them for the WR upgrade. But thats just me. Its a bit of a gamble. But if I can get quality offense for my older D, ive been doing it. Not sure if its wise or not though.

I think we'd all like to do that if we could find a dance partner. It's generally hard to trade defense for offense.

 

[stevegamer]

Do you guys see much swapping of DB for LB in your leagues?

Currently I'm rostering Quarles, Thomas, & MPeterson in my LB core, I generally start those 3 & Mitchell from KC, but also have Hill & Sirmon/Tulloch.

Scoring works out, due to LB tackles being slightly devalued. I think I am loaded as far as young talent goes at DB, and I'd love to get an younger player as a LB to go with Peterson/Mitchell. The DB talent:

DRobinson, MBoulware, RHarper, NCollins, DWhitner, GWilson, and I start 4.