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I am with you as I feel he was worthy of a 1st round pick this year. In saying that I am assuming that those that feel he is not 1st round worthy feel he is not going to amount to a very good all around WR. He is already the most dangerous return man in the game, but I am guessing many might see him as an inconsisitent WR for the future and therefore not worthy of a 1st round pick.
Ahh okay, sounds close to accurate.
Or even top 5. Or even in the first round without returning kicks. He's officially reached David Wilson status.@ people actually thinking he'd go #1 overall. Just awful.
Not when they're bubble screens. He had an awful 43% SR and an awful 6.1 YPT. That means that while he caught them, the plays didn't go as planned.
I voted that I thought he'd be a second rounder without kick returns, but I was really on the fence about that one. Essentially, I don't see much difference between a guy like Patterson and a guy like Kelvin Benjamin who get drafted based on the potential of what they could become, not based on what they already are. Without the kick returns, I could still see Cordarrelle sneaking in to the first round.Concept Coop said:Or even top 5. Or even in the first round without returning kicks. He's officially reached David Wilson status.
I voted the same, and am a little more confident about it. I suppose that if Benjamin snuck in, that Patterson could too. But the Panthers were in a unique situation and seemed to be looking to improve their current 1-2 year window with their pick. I think Benjamin can step in and do that today--give them a jumpball option that they didn't have and really needed. I'm not so sure that Patterson does the same for potential suitors.
The problem is that elite physical tools aren't all that rare in the NFL. Is Patterson any more physically gifted than Jerrick McKinnon, who went late third? Or Matt Jones, Robert Housler, Chris Henry(RB), or Manny Lawson? In fact, look at the fastest 40 times in the last 10 years or so. Most of those guys never mattered in the NFL.
I'd likely go (At WR; across position depends too much on setup):
It depends on if you're defining physically gifted by some combine measurement like HaSS or watching him in the open field. Mentioning Chris Henry nullifies your point for you?
Add a lot of NFL WR2 talent to the pool.
Define safer. It's possible he never moves the needle for fantasy purposes and there is never any hype. NFL bust risk vs. fantasy bust risk are much different propositions. If Beckham or Cooks are barely top 40 WRs for 10 years who cares about Beckham or Cooks.
This is the more interesting question. Allen is ranked as a top 10 dynasty WR by FBGs, ahead of Patterson, Watkins, and Evans. But his name doesn't generate nearly the hype as those three other guys.KellysHeroes said:
You seem to be using your own definition; so you tell me what it means to you and I can better answer your question.
We're talking about NFL value here, right? The chances of Patterson being a true NFL WR1 are close to 0, IMO. NFL WR2 talent is plenty for Patterson to have to compete with.
More likely to matter in fantasy football formats. Less likely to bust. More likely to be worthy of the investment.
Could this perhaps be attributed to a poor OC, or a disconnect w the OC?
Well another way to put it is how many WRs with HaSS of 110+ play like Devin Hester? Not many. If you're measuring raw athletic ability then sure there are plenty of guys like Chris Henry or AC Leonard that measure great but who will likely never do anything. But there is specialness to CP that transcends there being a lot of Chris Henry's and AC Leonards in the NFL, which is proven by the fact he was able to have the same open field success he did in the SEC.
Beckham is already a bust. No one believes in him. His price is already going down. The rookie pick you spend on him better have a hell of a new car smell. The positive comments in this thread should give some security to a Patterson investment despite whatever concerns you have. This is not a Brian Quick scenario. They're going to force him the ball, and he's going to have more than a few positive plays to give him a nice baseline.
What Patterson did in the SEC, in terms of elusiveness, was special. Certainly. And he put up nice college numbers because of that. But there are a lot of special players in the NFL who don't do enough of the routine to produce. Devin Hester being one of them (at WR).
Beckham is WR4 based on ADP. I don't think that supports your claims.
Which 5 did he run? When you answer I'll provide the 2 you missed.
Watching his college tape I initially thought he was a incredibly talented runner in the open field - similar to Thomas/Bryant. After looking at the rest of the 2013 class and coming back to look at him again I made a mistake. His skill running in the open field is unsurpassed by anyone I have ever seen in college football (past 7-10 years). After his 1st year in the league and what he was able to do out of the backfield, lined up out wide, and returning kicks there was nothing that changed my mind. It's why I traded for him before week 11.
So you don't know. Fair enough.
I agree with your thought process, but have a different, more conservative conclusion, I'd guess. In the open field, Patterson is right up there with anyone I've seen--better than Dez and DT, as you said. But I don't know what that will translate to, if he can't make MAJOR strides. That's the part I'll likely disagree on with those high on Patterson: how likely is it that he'll get enough polish to put up WR1 numbers?
I agree with this. I'd also add that he got demonstrably better at running 2 routes last year.
My figure of speach wasn't meant to be taken literally. But since you--for some reason--know the exact routes that he ran--*do you mind sharing them? *I can check your work tonight and get back to you.
No need. You claimed that people who liked Patterson only watched the highlights and that you watched the real games. I asked the question because of that statement, seeing it's clearly not the case. I figured you were making the statement for theatrics primarily but also know that many people who don't actually watch the games would take it serious. It kind of works both ways. There is no need to embellish things here. Patterson needs development on his routes. I'm not seeing anyone state otherwise. I've seen development in his routes last year and think he will continue to develop in that area. So, while it's an acknowledged weakness right now I don't see much reason to believe that will always be the case.
I couldn't tell you the number of routes any single player ran in any single season ever. I didn't realize that was something normal to keep track of.
I think this is a very fair statement. I'm more of a swing-for-the-fences type owner. I definitely see him in the boom-bust type mold ala the Kelvin Benjamin of 2013. I'm not necessarily high on Patterson but for the price I paid (pick 1.08) I think he is better value than what I would have found waiting for me in the 8 hole this year.....which would have very likely been Kelvin Benjamin. In that situation I'm picking Patterson 10 out of 10 times.
I'm sure he ran all of the route tree at some point. I've just noticed 7 in-particular from games I've watched. 2 that he seemed to improve on rather well from college. I watched a lot of him in college and did a lot of background work on him there because I had picks in dynasty leagues where I pretty much had to choose him or Austin. Seeing that I used to coach DBs, I just notice those types of things. Not sure what to tell you.
Certainly agree with you if 1.08 is the potential investment. I could even see someone liking him more than Cooks, and maybe even Evans (1.02-1.03). It's the 2nd round startup prices that have me shaking my head.
The bolded is the key. His highlight reel is two minutes long. It consists of maybe 5 "wow" plays. That seems to be the most common argument for drafting him higher in year 2 than in year 1- basically, he had about 5 really good plays, and forget about the rest of it.
No, this hasn't been the argument at all but you keep pushing it like it is.
Actually, I originally had written "that seems to be the argument for drafting him higher", but changed it to "that seems to be the most common argument for drafting him higher" specifically with you in mind.
Haha, OK. I thought maybe you weren't reading my post.
Basically most (on both sides) are saying his rookie year confirmed both the positives and negatives of his pre-draft analysis. The debate is really about whether the positives are worth more than the negatives. And that speaks more to whether you believe the negatives are correctable with better coaching, QBing, and normal experience and maturation.
I think this about sums it up, for those on each side who have watched him play a good deal.
Completely agree with this assessment. I just don't see why a season in which he confirmed the positives and negatives would result in such a spike in his value. It seems to me that if he were available in the 2014 draft, his value would be about the same as it was in the 2013 draft.
See, I look at this differently. Displaying his positives is a much bigger deal than displaying his negatives. His negatives can be fixed with good coaching, which he'll have with Norv around. His positives are the things you can't teach. Vision, athleticism and how go put them together on a football field. Knowing that he can take those skills to the NFL and they look just add impressive as his college tape tells you his physical skills translate. Whether he can be coached or not is another story. But things like route running and catching technique are coaching issues. And it's not like he was coached badly, he simply didn't get much coaching period. So he could go the route of JPP where the coaching met the talent or he never learns and ends up just being anther Hester where he can't translate his talent to the WR position and instead starts to build a potential hof level returner career.
Norv is an OC. He's not going to being working on routes with CP--not that we'd want him to as dynasty owners.
So your contention is that Patterson doesn't have the capability to learn any new skills or technique at all in the NFL. Does the same apply to all players or just Patterson?
Why will it always be below average? Did Demaryius Thomas come in a finished product? Was Dez Bryant an immediate stud? Jeffery? Gordon? etc. Almost every WR has work to do and their jump could be in year 2, year 3, etc.
