Impact of the TO Signing (If Any) (1 Viewer)

[psychobillies]

I watched a replay of the week 15 game against SD last year. I watched specifically to see if Palmer still had his arm strength. I came away with the impression that his arm was just fine. 27/40 314 yds 2 TD's 1 pick. He hit 85 on the button 50+ yards down the field for a score. There was plenty of zip on his out routes and intermediate throws. It was hard to judge on TV exactly what the WRs were doing, but I have to think Palmers poor year had much more to do with the lack of open targets than his arm.

I know that he had some god awful games throughout the season, but I'd love to hear more from some Bengals homers about what they think of his arm strength.

 

[Manster]

i think it speaks volumes that no one was really interested in TO. if he had much left many more teams would have been interested.

the headache has finally outweighed the talent. the guy has bad hands, and runs crappy routes. once he loses a step, he's ordinary and a bad lockerroom presence.

i guess cincy is a dumping ground for thugs and problem players. so maybe he'll fit right in. i just dont think this helps them that much.

 

[bonesman]

I'm not convinced Palmer is healthy. If he can't throw the ball better than he did last year, it will lessen the impact of this signing.

Ya, he didn't throw the ball well last year. Having really only 1 good receiver instead of two probably didn't help his cause but he definately threw some ugly balls. He does still have a big arm though and you'd think a play action bomb to a guy like TO would work once in awhile.

Unless he drops it

 

[David Yudkin]

Maybe I undervalue Housh? I just think TO and Bryant is a much greater talent than Housh and Henry. And Gresham is supposed to be pretty good. I'm not sold on Palmer at this point but I do believe this is the best group of receivers he has ever had.

In 2006, Housh and Henry accounted for 126-1686-18. Do you see Owens and Bryant hitting that combined? Ochocinco also added nearly 1400 yards (which at this point seems beyond his grasp as his numbers have been dropping ever since).In that year, Palmer scored 319 fantasy points, which last year would have barely cracked the Top 10.

 

[greggorymac]

You do realize that they are friends off the field? They workout together every year. I see this as no problem for 85 and TO.

Hey Huber,I'm not sure if your talking about TO and 85 or Palmer and TO because I know TO has been working out with Palmer to some degree this offseason.

Either way, it's one thing being friends when things are all good and it's another thing all together when you have to scoot over and make room for a guy like TO. 85 has really been the only guy with a flair for the cameras on that offense and now he'll have someone with almost the exact type personality. I think it will be interesting to see these two guys compete for that TV time and I do think if TO gets off to a really hot start while 85 doesn't, it won't be "all good." Palmer will definately have to have in the back of his mind that these two guys will need there's and feed these egos to some degree along the way. I'm not saying at all that this won't work, I'm just saying it could go down like this. Personally I think TO is a better receiver than 85, if I'm wrong then there probably won't be much of a problem at all.

I was referring to TO and 85. I agree there might be a problem but I see this as a great signing for the Bengals. They take on every other past problem child. Just looks to me like buyers remorse with Bryant and his knees. I can see TO and 85 flirt with 1000/6 and would definately uptick Palmer a bit with mid 20's TD production and 4000 yards. But one thing is for sure, its gonna be fun to watch these two in the endzone. I just wonder what they will come up with.

A 15yrd penalty on the kickoff.

 

[Mr.Underhill]

Palmer threw for over 4100 yards in 2007. In 2008, the Cinci passing game dropped to 2400 with Fitzpatrick taking over for Palmer week 4. In 2009, Palmer returned for 2890/21/13. It seems reasonable to think that his numbers would rise in his second year back from injury, not just because of Owens.

I don't think Owens had as much to do with the Bills QB scoring last year as the Bills QBs.

The year Owens arrived on the Cowboys was Bledsoe's swan song year. The fact that the Cowboys' scoring went up when Bledsoe sucked and Romo took over midseason without experience or a training camp as starter suggests that Owens was more helpful than a 37 point swing.

Owens put the Eagles passing game over the top, but I agree that that's not particularly relevant to 2010 Owens.

Actually, I think that you just made the case that the advent of Romo was part of the cause for the 37 point swing. Had Romo not taken over, scoring would not have increased as much as it did because Bledsoe would have been under center all year. Project the numbers under Bledsoe out over a full 16 and what would the T.O. effect for that year look like compared to the year prior?

personaly I think both TO and 85 at this point in their careers have one thing in mind......playoffs/super bowl.....something tells me they will both still put on a show, but I think the "all about me" attitude will be left at the door.....I see a bunch of interviews with them both together happening....I really think it will be more of a joining together of two huge egos for the good of the cause then a "hey look at me thing".....I think their is a mutual respect thing here by two very talented guys....I see this recipe working where it might not with some other WR's.....

granted the first reaction might be to think, no way this works......but I have a feeling it will and believe it or not, I think both of them would be happy if one goes 9-145-2, and the other goes 2-28-0, I don't think it will matter.....I bet these guys think a ton of people won't think it will work, and I bet they work together to prove everybody wrong.......

Is that why T.O. signed with Bufallo last year? Because he had playoffs/superbowl on his mind?T.O. signed for the check and the attention. T.O. doesn't want to ride off into the sunset. Football is the only thing he has that makes him a somebody. And ex-somebodies aren't as big a deal as current somebodies. T.O. isn't a mentor type who understands his diminishing role. He wants the attention. Make no mistake about his motiviation.

The only thing holding back Palmer from a top 10 ranking right now is how his arm looks - he comes out throwing deep at camp and pre season he will fly up the rankings....if you can get him on the cheap now its probably worth the risk...gotta figure if his arm was shot Cincy would not be giving him all these deep threats - maybe invest in more ground and pound.....I am buying now before the rush in mid August - wost case you have a good backup that you can pair with QBBC with another decent option like McNabb

T.O. isn't a deep threat. He never really was. He was a physical guy who could make something out of it after catching something short or mid-range. Deep threats don't challenge single-game reception records.For all the billing Bryant got as a speed merchant back in his early years, his most productive season came when he had the pop-gun armed Jeff Garcia throwing to him. Funny, T.O. was a stud with Jeff Garcia throwing to him too.

If anything, you could see this as either suspicion by the front office that Palmer doesn't have the deep ball mojo anymore or that they don't want to be as much of a vertical passing team anymore. They are getting Palmer veteran starters that have put up good numbers with weak armed QB's running a WCO derivative.

 

[Mr.Underhill]

You do realize that they are friends off the field? They workout together every year. I see this as no problem for 85 and TO.

Hey Huber,I'm not sure if your talking about TO and 85 or Palmer and TO because I know TO has been working out with Palmer to some degree this offseason.

Either way, it's one thing being friends when things are all good and it's another thing all together when you have to scoot over and make room for a guy like TO. 85 has really been the only guy with a flair for the cameras on that offense and now he'll have someone with almost the exact type personality. I think it will be interesting to see these two guys compete for that TV time and I do think if TO gets off to a really hot start while 85 doesn't, it won't be "all good." Palmer will definately have to have in the back of his mind that these two guys will need there's and feed these egos to some degree along the way. I'm not saying at all that this won't work, I'm just saying it could go down like this. Personally I think TO is a better receiver than 85, if I'm wrong then there probably won't be much of a problem at all.

I was referring to TO and 85. I agree there might be a problem but I see this as a great signing for the Bengals. They take on every other past problem child. Just looks to me like buyers remorse with Bryant and his knees. I can see TO and 85 flirt with 1000/6 and would definately uptick Palmer a bit with mid 20's TD production and 4000 yards. But one thing is for sure, its gonna be fun to watch these two in the endzone. I just wonder what they will come up with.

A 15yrd penalty on the kickoff.

Well played, sir. Well played.

 

[Bayhawks]

Definitely an improvement from the offense. I think TO finishes as a WR3. Palmer goes from a 3400 yard 23TD QB to a 4000 yard 30 TD QB.

Um, no. Palmer missed many open targets last season. It doesn't matter how good the receivers are if the QB can't hit them.

That's just not true. He completed 60.5% of his passes, which places him right in the middle of NFL QBs in 2009. Part of this can be attributed to the lack of receiving threats in Cincy. Once Chris Henry was lost for the year, the Bengals didn't have another receiver to threaten the deep part of the field, so defenses could pack more defenders into the short and intermediate zones. With the addition of the new receiving threats in Cincy, that won't be as easy in 2010.One of the main (if not THE MAIN) reason that Palmer had a "bad" year in 2009 was that the Bengals ranked 27th in pass attempts last year. Palmer attempted only 466 passes last year, as the Bengals focused on the run. Based on their moves this offseason (not re-signing LJ, signing Bryant, Matt Jones, and now TO, drafting Gresham and Shipley, It would be reasonable to expect them to pass more in 2010. If you bump them up 4 more attempts a game, they would be the 16th-ranked team, as far as pass attempts go.

Palmer also had a career low in YPA (6.6 YPA) in 2009 (not counting his injury season in 2008). Some might point to his as a sign that he has "lost it," however if you look deeper, you should come to the conclusion that this IS NOT THE CASE. In the 1st 8 games (before Chris Henry was lost for the year), Palmer was averaging 7.1 YPA. In the last 8 games of the year, he averaged 6.1 YPA. When he lost Henry, he lost the main deep threat, but also a 2nd option to take the pressure off of 85. With only 1 receiving threat, other teams could focus on shutting him down; like the Jets did in their 2 games against the Bengals at the end of the year. With the addition of several other receiving threats, I'd expect Palmers' YPA to bounce back, to close to his career average of 7.1.

With all of that being said, I'd expect the Bengals to throw more in 2010, just based on their offseason moves. I'm not going to predict crazy numbers, but I'll bump them the 4 more attempts a game (34/game) to make them an average team with regards to passing attempts.

Palmer is, historically, a 63% passer, but I'll leave his completion % where it was in 2009 (60.5%).

I will, however, bump his YPA up to 6.9. He was averaging 7.1 YPA before he lost Chris Henry, and I feel with TO, Jones, Gresham, Shipley, et al, he should be able to post at least 6.9 YPA.

So, 34 attempts/game=544 attempts

60.5% completions=329 completions

6.9 YPA=3753 passing yards

Historically, Palmer's TD % is 4.9% (number of TDs/number of attempts). In 2009, his TD % was 4.5%. Leaving his % at 2009 levels=25 TDs

So, without expecting Palmer to improve really, on his 2009 stats (other than YPA, which was impacted by the lack of other real receiving threats outside of 85), it would seem reasonable to expect a stat line of:

329 completions, 544 attempts, 3753 passing yards, and 25 TDs. These numbers would put Palmer right around the 10,11,12 projection for QBs, in my league's scoring system.

If Palmer does return to his career levels (completions %-63.2%, YPA-7.1, TD%-4.9%), one could expect a stat line of:

344 completions, 544 attempts, 3862 yards, and 27 TDs. These numbers would put Palmer right around the 7,8,9 projection for QBs, in my league's scoring system.

 

[JHuber77]

You do realize that they are friends off the field? They workout together every year. I see this as no problem for 85 and TO.

Hey Huber,I'm not sure if your talking about TO and 85 or Palmer and TO because I know TO has been working out with Palmer to some degree this offseason.

Either way, it's one thing being friends when things are all good and it's another thing all together when you have to scoot over and make room for a guy like TO. 85 has really been the only guy with a flair for the cameras on that offense and now he'll have someone with almost the exact type personality. I think it will be interesting to see these two guys compete for that TV time and I do think if TO gets off to a really hot start while 85 doesn't, it won't be "all good." Palmer will definately have to have in the back of his mind that these two guys will need there's and feed these egos to some degree along the way. I'm not saying at all that this won't work, I'm just saying it could go down like this. Personally I think TO is a better receiver than 85, if I'm wrong then there probably won't be much of a problem at all.

I was referring to TO and 85. I agree there might be a problem but I see this as a great signing for the Bengals. They take on every other past problem child. Just looks to me like buyers remorse with Bryant and his knees. I can see TO and 85 flirt with 1000/6 and would definately uptick Palmer a bit with mid 20's TD production and 4000 yards. But one thing is for sure, its gonna be fun to watch these two in the endzone. I just wonder what they will come up with.

A 15yrd penalty on the kickoff.

Well played, sir. Well played.

 

[fantasizing]

If Carson's still throwing like he did last January it wouldn't matter if the Bengals acquired Larry Fitzgeraldn and Randy Moss, he still wouldn't be any good.

He did not look good in that playoff game against the Jets. Maybe it was the Jets' strong defense, but either way the passing game was atrocious. Cinci needs to seriously get back to the vertical passing game that other teams feared a few years back. Forget this "run first" crap....

 

[Hedgehog]

Definitely an improvement from the offense. I think TO finishes as a WR3. Palmer goes from a 3400 yard 23TD QB to a 4000 yard 30 TD QB.

Um, no. Palmer missed many open targets last season. It doesn't matter how good the receivers are if the QB can't hit them.

That's just not true. He completed 60.5% of his passes, which places him right in the middle of NFL QBs in 2009. Part of this can be attributed to the lack of receiving threats in Cincy. Once Chris Henry was lost for the year, the Bengals didn't have another receiver to threaten the deep part of the field, so defenses could pack more defenders into the short and intermediate zones. With the addition of the new receiving threats in Cincy, that won't be as easy in 2010.One of the main (if not THE MAIN) reason that Palmer had a "bad" year in 2009 was that the Bengals ranked 27th in pass attempts last year. Palmer attempted only 466 passes last year, as the Bengals focused on the run. Based on their moves this offseason (not re-signing LJ, signing Bryant, Matt Jones, and now TO, drafting Gresham and Shipley, It would be reasonable to expect them to pass more in 2010. If you bump them up 4 more attempts a game, they would be the 16th-ranked team, as far as pass attempts go.

Palmer also had a career low in YPA (6.6 YPA) in 2009 (not counting his injury season in 2008). Some might point to his as a sign that he has "lost it," however if you look deeper, you should come to the conclusion that this IS NOT THE CASE. In the 1st 8 games (before Chris Henry was lost for the year), Palmer was averaging 7.1 YPA. In the last 8 games of the year, he averaged 6.1 YPA. When he lost Henry, he lost the main deep threat, but also a 2nd option to take the pressure off of 85. With only 1 receiving threat, other teams could focus on shutting him down; like the Jets did in their 2 games against the Bengals at the end of the year. With the addition of several other receiving threats, I'd expect Palmers' YPA to bounce back, to close to his career average of 7.1.

With all of that being said, I'd expect the Bengals to throw more in 2010, just based on their offseason moves. I'm not going to predict crazy numbers, but I'll bump them the 4 more attempts a game (34/game) to make them an average team with regards to passing attempts.

Palmer is, historically, a 63% passer, but I'll leave his completion % where it was in 2009 (60.5%).

I will, however, bump his YPA up to 6.9. He was averaging 7.1 YPA before he lost Chris Henry, and I feel with TO, Jones, Gresham, Shipley, et al, he should be able to post at least 6.9 YPA.

So, 34 attempts/game=544 attempts

60.5% completions=329 completions

6.9 YPA=3753 passing yards

Historically, Palmer's TD % is 4.9% (number of TDs/number of attempts). In 2009, his TD % was 4.5%. Leaving his % at 2009 levels=25 TDs

So, without expecting Palmer to improve really, on his 2009 stats (other than YPA, which was impacted by the lack of other real receiving threats outside of 85), it would seem reasonable to expect a stat line of:

329 completions, 544 attempts, 3753 passing yards, and 25 TDs. These numbers would put Palmer right around the 10,11,12 projection for QBs, in my league's scoring system.

If Palmer does return to his career levels (completions %-63.2%, YPA-7.1, TD%-4.9%), one could expect a stat line of:

344 completions, 544 attempts, 3862 yards, and 27 TDs. These numbers would put Palmer right around the 7,8,9 projection for QBs, in my league's scoring system.