Godsbrother
Footballguy
Former Patriot punter Josh Miller was saying this morning that he thinks there is a good chance that BB is going to be moving on. He says that BB wants to prove he can work his magic again without TB.
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Indefinite New England Patriots Thread (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter captain_amazing
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
Not sure this is serious or not, but Josh Miller? He last suited up for NE in 2006. How would he have an idea what goes on at this point?
rockaction
Footballguy
Can we start dancing on graves yet?
Godsbrother
Footballguy
He is a sports talk radio guy in Pittsburgh. He wasn't claiming any inside information, just speculating that BB may be done in NE if this story is true because Kraft essentially sided with TB instead of BB.
rockaction
Footballguy
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Godsbrother
Footballguy
Considering Josh Miller played for both teams I don't think he cares if BB and TB stay together or not. He was just voicing an opinion
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Insoxicated
Thank GOD you dropped in! I know that none of us in here had any idea that if ANY NFL team were to HYPOTHETICALLY have the entire coaching staff replaced, they might lose a few more games the following year.
WHEW!!! I'm not sure what we would do without this hard hitting analysis.
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Insoxicated
Your opinion on the opinion of a guy (a decade removed from NE) who is paid to come up with controversial opinions is noted.
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SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
2013? One of my buddies INSISTED that the way NE operated and did business that they would NEVER win another SB. BB would be gone in two years, the team would implode, and they would go back to being an also ran. That was after their second title in 2003.
Godsbrother
Footballguy
He didn't come up with anything controversial. He was just commenting on the ESPN story. It was in the news and it would have been kinda weird to ignore. He is part of a 3 man morning talk show and was asked about it by the other two guys.Your opinion on the opinion of a guy (a decade removed from NE) who is paid to come up with controversial opinions is noted.
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Insoxicated
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SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
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Insoxicated
hardcoredx
Footballguy
I like the Titan's to cover the spread. 13.5 points is too much IMO.
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Insoxicated
Titans have been a very slow starting team, if NE gets up on them early the game could get out of hand. Patriots are getting a lot of players back next week. It is a lot of points and I might not bet NE but there is no way I’d lay money on the Titans.
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Insoxicated
WHAT I'M LOOKING FOR: 4th Quarter battle between NEP and TEN.
• NEP has been incredible in the 4th quarter down the stretch. (1ppg in 4th quarter, 4.3ppg in 2nd half in last 3 games)
• TEN has been party to many incredible 2nd half / 4th quarter comebacks
I think if TEN is relying on another dramatic late comeback in Foxboro, they're going to be in trouble.
• NEP has been incredible in the 4th quarter down the stretch. (1ppg in 4th quarter, 4.3ppg in 2nd half in last 3 games)
• TEN has been party to many incredible 2nd half / 4th quarter comebacks
I think if TEN is relying on another dramatic late comeback in Foxboro, they're going to be in trouble.
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Bossman
Footballguy
Talk here in New England ... no one gives TEN a chance.
Kind of scares me a little. TEN has a pretty strong defense and can run the ball. Good playoff attributes.
I remember a similar playoff vibe when the Pats played NYJ ... after the Pats had recently given them a regular season thumping to the tune of 45-3.
No one gave the Jets a chance. Jets defense was in Bradys face all day and the Jets won the playoff game pretty easily. (28-21 ... NE scored a late TD to make it look closer).
The way the NE defense has played down the stretch doesn't instill lots of confidence in me that they can stop the run.
I could see Henry ripping one up the middle for a long TD run on the first series of the game ... ala BAL Ravens / Ray Rice 2009.
Yeah, glass half empty here.
The NE offense certainly hasn't been very potent the last 5 games ... only reaching 28 points one time.
Is it a coincidence that Bradys play has dropped off after JG was traded? Lots of INT's ... very un-Brady like.
Maybe he's become a bit more complacent without a capable replacement there ready to take his job.
Kind of scares me a little. TEN has a pretty strong defense and can run the ball. Good playoff attributes.
I remember a similar playoff vibe when the Pats played NYJ ... after the Pats had recently given them a regular season thumping to the tune of 45-3.
No one gave the Jets a chance. Jets defense was in Bradys face all day and the Jets won the playoff game pretty easily. (28-21 ... NE scored a late TD to make it look closer).
The way the NE defense has played down the stretch doesn't instill lots of confidence in me that they can stop the run.
I could see Henry ripping one up the middle for a long TD run on the first series of the game ... ala BAL Ravens / Ray Rice 2009.
Yeah, glass half empty here.
The NE offense certainly hasn't been very potent the last 5 games ... only reaching 28 points one time.
Is it a coincidence that Bradys play has dropped off after JG was traded? Lots of INT's ... very un-Brady like.
Maybe he's become a bit more complacent without a capable replacement there ready to take his job.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Certainly anything COULD happen. Bad weather, unlucky turnovers, bad calls, injuries to key players.
In order of what you listed . . .
The Jets and Patriots have played each other a zillion times and divisional games are usually closer than other games. The Pats had a laugher that one game . . . but they lost to the Jets earlier in the season. The results of one game don't often translate to the results of another, and in this case things really didn't go in favor of the Jets that week. The first game and the third game that season were a lot more closer to the norm than the butt fumble game. The familiarity factor played a key role in the playoff loss to the Jets. To that end, I saw today NE has gone 13-0 against teams they did not face in the regular season (which would be the case with Tennessee).
I mentioned how the defense has played in other posts and you still choose to harp on the defense being a weakness. I already stated my case, but they have only allowed 15 ppg in December. If we go back farther, they have allowed the fewest points over the last 12 regular season games and even with their atrocious start to the season they ranked 5th overall in fewest points allowed. BB will scheme to take Henry out of the game. I could see him getting 25 carries for 65 or 70 yards. The Titans passing game doesn't really scare me and Mariota doesn't strike me as being ready to have a career game in NE. The only time he saw any time against NE was in 2015 when he got knocked out of the game after posting a 3 of 6 for 32 yards with 3 sacks and a lost fumble line.
The game they played like dogs was in MIA (which has happened several other times for some reason) and they played the Steelers in Pittsburgh, which has a powerhouse for an offense. Playing at home would have been the elixir for both of those games. The Dolphins have lost their last 10 games in NE by an average of 19 points and the Steelers have lost all 5 of their trips to Foxboro against Brady by an average of 18 points.
As far as the offense goes, Gronk was suspended in the MIA game and his absence was really a factor. Hogan, White, and Burkhead have all been out and they are set to return. While the offense (as you mentioned) "hasn't been very potent", the Pats won 3 games in December by 20 or more points and had 3 games where they almost had 200 rushing yards. 31 other teams would love to have such a weak offense.
Brady clearly is more banged up than has been reported, but yet they still have been winning. The injuries to other guys have all factored in. It would not shock me if Brady got fired up over the ESPN fluff piece and had 350/4 this week. I don't think JG being shipped out has had anything to do with TB12's play. Yes, he's had more INT's than usual, but the pressure he's been under has led him to make some bad passes otr had some deflections. The one thing I don't like is he's been under throwing Cooks a lot, and there were plays that could have been TD's that ended up as INT's when Cooks had to slow down and wait for the ball to get there.
There's a reason the Pats are a 14 point favorite and have gone 17-3 at home with Brady in the playoffs. They should be heavily favored against the Titans. IMO, a lot of weird things would have to happen for TEN to win. I am not sure they have the coaching, the game plan, and the roster to pull it off.
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Insoxicated
As usual @Anarchy99 with a nice bit of detailed, fact-based analysis.
There are certainly paths for TN to make this a game and even win. IMO both Mariotta and Henry will need to have career-ish type games, and the coaches will have to scheme very effectively. That is obviously possible.
More likely result is NE has a scheme that allows them to move the ball effectively against Tennessee... and NE Defense will force TN to grind out yards between the 20s, stall drives as they approach the redzone, and force them to settle for 3.
The weather will also be a factor, with temps in the teens and winds in the 5-10mph range. Many of the Patriots are very familiar with these conditions in Foxboro. Many of the Titans are not. The field should be in good shape with very limited rain coming in the morning, but stopping well before kickoff.
There are certainly paths for TN to make this a game and even win. IMO both Mariotta and Henry will need to have career-ish type games, and the coaches will have to scheme very effectively. That is obviously possible.
More likely result is NE has a scheme that allows them to move the ball effectively against Tennessee... and NE Defense will force TN to grind out yards between the 20s, stall drives as they approach the redzone, and force them to settle for 3.
The weather will also be a factor, with temps in the teens and winds in the 5-10mph range. Many of the Patriots are very familiar with these conditions in Foxboro. Many of the Titans are not. The field should be in good shape with very limited rain coming in the morning, but stopping well before kickoff.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I wholeheartedly agree with the first one (pressuring Brady). I am not as in agreement on the second part (Pats getting pressure). Many times NE doesn't rush many players or seldom blitzes and they still win, many times pretty convincingly. In fact, for some QB's, I think BB has no qualms about letting them sit in the pocket and make mistakes and bad decisions. Overall I guess in most cases I would say defensive pressure is a contributing factor, but as far as NE goes that one may be more opponent specific than others.
Boston
Footballguy
It is pretty much always a factor when they lose...that being said (like you point out) they have won plenty when they have not been able to generate pressure...they can overcome it but it is a constant in almost every loss...the Brady pressure part is the real killer...
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Workhorse
Footballguy
It will be difficult given the Titans inability to stop running backs in the passing game, which is the Pats strength. This is a great matchup for the Pats in almost every way.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Forgot to mention BB at his presser this week. Asked if he could discuss some of the strengths of the Titans, he gave a three and a half minute answer and mentioned over half the Tennessee roster. Including five cornerbacks and six special team players.
So getting back to why NE should win this week, the Pats have B.B. and the Titans don’t. Any reasons past that are just icing.
So getting back to why NE should win this week, the Pats have B.B. and the Titans don’t. Any reasons past that are just icing.
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Insoxicated
According to Football Outsiders, Tennessee ranks a hair above middle of the pack (14th) in the NFL with regards to ALY (Adjusted Line Yards) which measures the performance of the defensive line.
According to their detailed stats, Their Ends (ranked 7th and 1st) are far more effective at generating pressure than their interior (14th, 24th, 31st). When looking purely from a pass rush perspective, TN improves slightly to 12th, with 43 sacks and an adjusted sack rate of 6.9%.
For perspective, New England's losses were to:
KC: (26th Overall, 26th Pass): 3 Sacks - Brady QBR 70.0
CAR: (5th Overall, 3rd Pass): 3 Sacks - Brady QBR 104.6
MIA: (10th Overall, 27th Pass): 2 Sacks - Brady QBR 59.5
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PIT: (12th Overall, 1st Pass): 2 Sacks - Brady QBR 87.6 (added for perspective)
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
Upon even further review, the ruling on the field stands?
The Pats clearly should have lost, so not sure if you listed that game as a loss because of that fact.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
After watching NE games and piecing some things together, IMO, the best way to beat them is to have a battery of plays and schemes ready to roll out that WERE NOT utilized in other games.
Once Hoodie has tape to study, your chances go way down. Not sure who could put together a different playbook and keep it under wraps to spring on NE.
Thats how Rex was able to win the playoff game after the butt fumble game. He put in the short zone defense which TB and B.B. hasn’t seen before (and still didn’t win by all that much).
The issue, of course, in trying to run different plays is your team would be getting away from your own strengths on something untested. IMO, still worth the risk as it could get B.B. to over think things.
Once Hoodie has tape to study, your chances go way down. Not sure who could put together a different playbook and keep it under wraps to spring on NE.
Thats how Rex was able to win the playoff game after the butt fumble game. He put in the short zone defense which TB and B.B. hasn’t seen before (and still didn’t win by all that much).
The issue, of course, in trying to run different plays is your team would be getting away from your own strengths on something untested. IMO, still worth the risk as it could get B.B. to over think things.
Didn't the Broncos beat them twice the year they won the Super Bowl? All credit to Wade, possibly?
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Insoxicated
It wasn't intended to be listed as a loss by any means.... hence the qualifier afterward. Sorry for any confusion. Edited OP to clarify hopefully
It's a game where PIT often made brady uncomfortable, a game we could have clearly lost, and a team we MAY have to face again, if both teams are lucky enough to advance.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
Running the numbers like I tend to do for the post season . . .
NE offense averages 28.6 ppg
NE adjusted scoring +6.8 ppg (amount NE scored more per game compared to opponent's points allowed)
TEN defense averages 18.5 ppg
TEN defense adjusted scoring +0.5 (amount TEN allowed more per game compared to opponent's points scored)
NE TOTAL: 29.1 points
TEN offense averages 20.9 ppg
TEN adjusted scoring -0.9 (amount TEN scored less per game compared to opponent's points allowed)
NE defense averages 18.5 ppg
NE defense adjusted scoring -2.3 (amount NE allowed less per game compared to opponent's points scored)
TEN TOTAL: 18.1 points
EDIT TO ADD . . .
Forgot to give NE their +3 points for home field. That would make it 32-18 New England, which is really close to both the point spread (-13.5) and O/U number (48.5).
NE offense averages 28.6 ppg
NE adjusted scoring +6.8 ppg (amount NE scored more per game compared to opponent's points allowed)
TEN defense averages 18.5 ppg
TEN defense adjusted scoring +0.5 (amount TEN allowed more per game compared to opponent's points scored)
NE TOTAL: 29.1 points
TEN offense averages 20.9 ppg
TEN adjusted scoring -0.9 (amount TEN scored less per game compared to opponent's points allowed)
NE defense averages 18.5 ppg
NE defense adjusted scoring -2.3 (amount NE allowed less per game compared to opponent's points scored)
TEN TOTAL: 18.1 points
EDIT TO ADD . . .
Forgot to give NE their +3 points for home field. That would make it 32-18 New England, which is really close to both the point spread (-13.5) and O/U number (48.5).
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Bossman
Footballguy
Last season I complained of how opposing teams were terrible and watching the regular season games had become somewhat ho-hum with the Pats victories all but a forgone conclusion. Winning was expected.
I was missing the powerhouse vs powerhouse matchups that we had when NE would play Manning and the Colts, Broncos, Steelers, Ravens, ... or when the Chargers were really good.
So I was excited for the playoffs last year ... and those games turned out to be a cake-walk. Yawn.... until the Super Bowl.
In hoping for more competitive games, I was thinking other teams would improve to powerhouse levels and compete with our Pats ...
The games are now competitive, not because there's new Peyton Manning led powerhouse teams in the league, but more so because the Patriots have dropped to a level closer to the rest of the league ... due to injury and somewhat lack of talent (LB, DL?).
I enjoy the fact that there is some doubt of a victory ... but would rather it be because the opponents are better. TEN / JAX / PIT ... not so much.
I was missing the powerhouse vs powerhouse matchups that we had when NE would play Manning and the Colts, Broncos, Steelers, Ravens, ... or when the Chargers were really good.
So I was excited for the playoffs last year ... and those games turned out to be a cake-walk. Yawn.... until the Super Bowl.
In hoping for more competitive games, I was thinking other teams would improve to powerhouse levels and compete with our Pats ...
The games are now competitive, not because there's new Peyton Manning led powerhouse teams in the league, but more so because the Patriots have dropped to a level closer to the rest of the league ... due to injury and somewhat lack of talent (LB, DL?).
I enjoy the fact that there is some doubt of a victory ... but would rather it be because the opponents are better. TEN / JAX / PIT ... not so much.
NE_REVIVAL
Footballguy
It may be a captain obvious observation but I would add a 3rd thing and that is an ability by the opponent to convert 3rd downs, put some long drives together and keep the ne offense on the sideline.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
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Insoxicated
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Insoxicated
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
Not gonna bite. Anyways, Anarchy will be crunching the numbers for us next week if we're so fortunate to see this matchup again.
Boston
Footballguy
Could not agree more although that usually comes with a lack of pressure...a QB with too much time on his hands just slicing them up on third downs...those games are just so painful to watch...
Blowout.
Lot of weapons back at Brady's disposal. Titans miserable at covering RBs out of backfield. Still have the TN / Pit game in my head where the TN secondary was absolutely clueless against Big Ben.
NE also getting Branch back in the middle. Will help with Henry.
Temps will be crashing tmrw afternoon into the 20s with wind. TN should love that.
Ghosts of TN getting shellacked in Foxboro in the last playoff matchup.
And oh by the way, Brady probably isn't fired up at all about all this media crap being made out to be the bad guy and "looking old."
34-13.
Lot of weapons back at Brady's disposal. Titans miserable at covering RBs out of backfield. Still have the TN / Pit game in my head where the TN secondary was absolutely clueless against Big Ben.
NE also getting Branch back in the middle. Will help with Henry.
Temps will be crashing tmrw afternoon into the 20s with wind. TN should love that.
Ghosts of TN getting shellacked in Foxboro in the last playoff matchup.
And oh by the way, Brady probably isn't fired up at all about all this media crap being made out to be the bad guy and "looking old."
34-13.
