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Indefinite New England Patriots Thread (12 Viewers)

simey said:
Run It Up said:
Simulation doesn't account for GB being completely incapable of beating a good defense
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You don't think the Patriots have a good defense?
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Not in the traditional sense. They play bend don't break as a rule of thumb and win the takeaway battle or at least try to.Also the Pats still should have won that game.

 
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I hear a lot of Ravens and NFL fans in general that keep saying "you put pressure on Brady and he crumbles. This is how the Ravens will win." I almost feel like everyone is underestimating this seasons Patriots team and what they've done. Brady got hit 8 times, 8 TIMES against the Broncos and still put up 43pts against a stout secondary. The Ravens might have a great pass rush, but I don't think it's any better than Denver's.

 
I don't have the stats, but I feel like getting hit 8 times on a game as a quarterback is pretty standard in the NFL. Usually when the quarterback is under a lot of pressure and they show the times hurried, hit and sacked during a game it is like 25 times hurried hit in the high teens and sacked 4+ times.

 
Great Revis article on MMQB.

on Belichick:

from the outside looking in, I viewed it differently. Being on the inside now, I see why we win so much on a week-to-week basis.
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On being a mercenary:

Everybody has an opinion. Some may view it as him having leverage, and he does well with that leverage. Some may look at it as he’s overpaid. There are a million things that can be said. The only thing I look at is, you get paid for what you do on the field. Everybody. It’s the Tom Bradys, Peyton Mannings, and it goes down the line. That’s all I ask for. At the end of the day it’s negotiations. You go back and forth, we come to a common ground, and everybody’s happy. That’s how you look at it. I just focus on what I need to do and not worry about it.
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Run It Up said:
I suspect Steve Smith as well. But holy #### Browner and Torrey might combine for the most PI yards ever.
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As long as we can get close to the same amount of yards in PI calls I like our chances. And for the love of God when Brady hits a wr deep CATCH the ball. It takes some great catches to win games, lets make some. I still have nightmares about Welker dropping the pass on the opening drive of the 2012 game. Plays like that are critical.

 
My gut says Revis should be on S. Smith, but some of the local commentators aren't so sure and they have me thinking twice. In the end I see Revis more on Steve Sr than anyone else, but I wouldn't be surprised to see quite a bit of zone and a lot of shifting of coverage as well.

 
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I don't think the Ravens will be able to get away with just chucking it downfield this game. I'm hoping that after seeing it for however many seasons its been now that Flacco has been in the league, they might actually plan for it.

 
Run It Up said:
I don't think the Ravens will be able to get away with just chucking it downfield this game. I'm hoping that after seeing it for however many seasons its been now that Flacco has been in the league, they might actually plan for it.
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From your lips to gods ears!

You have to know Flacco is going to chuck it down the field and up for grabs several times a game and for the love of god I hope they r ready for it. I think they r, but I want to see it.

 
I really see Revis on Torrey with Browner on Smith. I'm not sure I want Browner on Torrey, unless they have McCourty helping him out over the top for the majority of the game.

 
Today, Belichick and Brady are full-fledged peers, intent on wrecking opponents, sometimes even to the point of embarrassment.

Their biggest challenge? Keeping the other honest and engaged.

"He's a hard guy to coach, because he's so well prepared," Belichick said in 2011. "He's seen all the tape. He's studied the film. You really have to know what you're talking about when you talk to him, because if you tell him something that's not quite right, he'll say, 'Hey, what about this game 10 weeks ago, when this happened and that happened? We can't do that.'

"It really forces you as a coach to be well prepared to make sure that you can really give him information that is helpful -- not things that he's already seen. You can't B.S. your way through a meeting with Tom Brady. I'll tell you that."
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"Tom Brady is an extension of Bill Belichick, and Belichick an extension of Brady," Billick explained. "The offense and defense is totally integrated -- not only structurally, but philosophically, too. I don't know if we've had a relationship like this ever in the league.

"The wealth of knowledge, their database is unparalleled. Imagine their frame of reference -- 'Remember six years ago when the Dolphins tried a four-wide blitz on second-and-long?' Six years ago? Are you f---ing kidding me? I can't remember yesterday. The synergy between head coach and quarterback, it's stunning."

Their shared experiences have evolved into a collective memory, a vast encyclopedia of X's and O's, an iCloud embedded in their brains. At a critical juncture in New England's Week 15 victory over Miami, Brady surprised the Dolphins with an uncharacteristically unbridled 17-yard run.

"He did a good job of seeing that in the pass rush," Belichick said afterward. "It's something we've talked about this week. He made a big play on that last year against them."
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http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/2014/story/_/id/12125609/tom-brady-bill-belichick-perfect-match

if you're a pats fan it's a rehash of a lot of the stuff you've read a dozen times, but it's a good read, and I could always read it a dozen more times.

these guys are everything football and teamwork is supposed to be.

 
Spike said:
Baloney Sandwich said:
41-13 Pats...Baltimore has no answer for Gronk. I expect the Pats to spread them out and go uptempo for most of the game. Jimmy gets his playoff feet wet with around 8 minutes left in the 4th.
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But does Gronk have to stay in and block much of the time?
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If they are running but do you really think the Pats will have by far their best receiver blocking on passing downs?

My guess is the Ravens defensive game plan will be based on the believe they can get pressure with their front four and I don't see them blitzing much at all. They might be forced to do so but that would mean Brady is carving them up.

I would think the Pats approach this game much like they did against Detroit.

 
Tool said:
It's a gonna be a cold one on Saturday.
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Hightower noted he isn’t concerned about being a “tough guy.” It’s all about comfort for the former first-round pick, who said he learned his lesson in the past. However, others, like defensive tackle Vince Wilfork, plan to approach Saturday’s playoff contest as if it were played in the middle of the summer. Sleeves simply aren’t an option. “I’ll do what I’ve been doing for 11 years — go out there like I’m playing in 80 degrees,” Wilfork said laughing. “I’m a big believer that I’m not playing the weather, so I’m not going to switch my routine just because of what’s going on outside. Deal with it. I think at that point in the game, I don’t care if it’s minus-2 (degrees) or 98, you have to be able to play that football game.” Big Vince, who checks in at 325 pounds, plans to go bare arms Saturday, which seems rather crazy on the surface. The logic is that so much else will be going on throughout the course of the game that weather will be an afterthought. “I’ll tell you what, when it gets close to the end of the game, I’m ready to get inside,” Wilfork said. “But during the course of the game, with the heated benches and going on and off the field and moving around, as a player, you really don’t feel that coldness. “You’ll be so focused and so pumped up that by the time you get a chance to feel it, you’re on the sidelines sitting on heated benches. For me, it’s never been a problem. And I’m not trying to make it a problem.” Accuweather calls for Saturday to be cold with sunshine in Foxboro. Temperatures are expected to be in the high teens or low 20s, and the wind chill factor could make for an even more uncomfortable setting. Patriots wide receiver Julian Edelman is one player who’s well-equipped to handle the conditions. He showed up to practice Wednesday sporting a bushy “playoff beard.” “The ball’s harder. But it’s harder for both teams,” Edelman said. “There’s like a study where your grip strength goes down like 30 percent when it’s a certain amount of degrees out, I don’t know. We’re practicing out there and we’re going to get used to it, and I’m sure they’re doing the same.”Read more at: http://nesn.com/2015/01/patriots-unfazed-by-cold-weather-in-preparing-for-showdown-with-ravens/
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Tool said:
It's a gonna be a cold one on Saturday.
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This game is reminding me of the playoff game they played against the Titans back in the day...

For the most part I really don't worry about who the Pats play...I believe they usually control their own destiny...that being said there are three things that will show up in any loss they have:

*Protecting Brady...this is pretty obvious and there's not a lot of analysis that needs to go into it...

*Pats pass rush...show me a Patriots playoff loss and I will show you a game where they could not get to the QB at important junctions of the game...I think they are far better suited in this area this year but it is still a big area to watch...

*Play-calling...I can't remember a Patriot loss in the past seven years or so where I was happy with their play selection...if they start forcing it downfield get ready for a nail-biting day...

This is the first time since 2007 where I am really confident in their ability to win a big playoff game should it get dirty...this team is much more well-rounded than the past years and someone is going to have to play extremely well to knock them off in Foxboro over the next two weeks...

 
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Oh man, nothing to contribute... just 2 more days.... I'm thinking the Pats schedule played out just right for them. They ran the gauntlet in the middle of the year, ended against a couple teams with strong defensive lines, got some rest and health, and time to prepare etc... Ravens are in for it.

 
Boston said:
This is the first time since 2007 where I am really confident in their ability to win a big playoff game should it get dirty...this team is much more well-rounded than the past years and someone is going to have to play extremely well to knock them off in Foxboro over the next two weeks...
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yeah, this is a tremendously different team than in years past I think, in both personnel additions and health.

this isn't making excuses, but I wonder how many of the past injuries people forget about when they look back at previous years.

this has been an amazingly deep and healthy team this year.

 
Kool-Aid Larry said:
Boston said:
This is the first time since 2007 where I am really confident in their ability to win a big playoff game should it get dirty...this team is much more well-rounded than the past years and someone is going to have to play extremely well to knock them off in Foxboro over the next two weeks...
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yeah, this is a tremendously different team than in years past I think, in both personnel additions and health.

this isn't making excuses, but I wonder how many of the past injuries people forget about when they look back at previous years.

this has been an amazingly deep and healthy team this year.
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They have had years where they were playing street free agents at this time of the year...outside of Mayo they have been pretty fortunate with regard to health this year...BB also seemed to get some of his mojo back with regard to pulling guys out of nowhere or revitalizing them...Chung, Gray, Ayers, Branch, Cassillas and even LaFell are all guys who have contributed and or exceeded expectations this year...

 
Brandon Bolden - RB - Patriots
Patriots signed RB Brandon Bolden to a two-year, $2.32 million contract extension through 2016.
Bolden played just 77 snaps on offense during the regular season, rushing for 89 yards and one touchdown on 28 carries (3.2 YPC). But he's a core special teams player for New England as the No. 4 running back.

Jan 9 - 9:12 AM
Pat Chung - DB - Patriots
Patriots signed SS Pat Chung to a three-year, $8.2 million contract extension through 2017.
Chung, the 34th overall pick in the 2009 draft, was mediocre at best during his first five seasons in the league. He was drafted by New England and spent his first four years with the team before going to Philadelphia in 2013 and coming back to the Patriots this season. Chung started 15-of-16 games, recording 85 tackles, seven pass breakups, and one interception. He graded out as Pro Football Focus' No. 12 overall safety, finishing third against the run.

Jan 9 - 9:03 AM
Both per Rotoworld.

 
I think you guys are exactly right that this Pats team is much better than they've been for a number of years. But non-New England fans don't really see the difference. It's kind of like: "Oh yeah, Patriots are 12-4 again and have a home game in the divisional round, just like every other year for the past dozen. They've got Brady and a bunch of generic other guys (except Gronk) and a no-name defense that Belichick pieces together."

The reality is that their defense is much more dynamic this year. Plus Gronk seems fully healthy.

I think this is a tough match-up for the Ravens. Their D line is really coming on strong, but their pass coverage, DBs and LBs alike, is terrible. Even CJ Mosley, who is truly reminiscent of a young Ray Lewis, is still weak in pass coverage. I don't see any reason in the world why Brady won't shred them on short-range passes that frequently turn into good-size gains, while neutralizing the pass rush.

Offensively, the Ravens are without their 2 starting Tackles and have struggled mightily to run the ball in their absence over the last month. They talk like Monroe might be coming back at LT (which would be huge because then Hurst could play RT and Yanda could go back inside to RG) but I think that's a smokescreen. Zuttah has been adequate at Center, but if Yanda is still at RT, I look for Wilfork to dominate inside. Ravens will have to pass, but their WRs struggle vs. press coverage. If I had to go out on a limb and predict a way the Ravens win, it would be for a third WR (maybe Jacoby Jones, but more likely Kamar Aiken) to have a big day lining up in the slot, while NE's top CBs take away the Smiths and the safeties are focused on the TEs (who can be deadly on play action in Kubiak's offense).

If anything, I think the cold helps the Ravens. They truly are a big, strong, physical team who like to hit other people hard. I still believe one of the reasons they won in Denver in 2012 was because it was about 15 degrees and Manning gradually wore out in the cold, to the point he served up the overtime INT that decided the game.

Ravens' strength is its front 7, particularly its DL. Also their patience and the fact that they've been there before. I think they sit back with 2-deep safeties the entire game and dare New England to run vs. a light box. I don't think they'll succeed, and even if they occasionally do, I'll take a 7-yard run over a Brady pass attempt almost every time. The Ravens are #1 in red zone D and they will be very patient, grinding it out, forcing New England to make lots of long drives and very tight red zone throws to score TDs. Unfortunately, their pass coverage is so inconsistent and prone to communication breakdowns (they've been juggling player combinations all year) that I believe Brady will exploit them. Maybe they hang around for the first half, but if/when they get behind, they will be in some trouble and I'm thinking something like a 31-13 game.

If the Ravens can come out and set the tone with a good TD drive and some punishing defensive stops early in the game, maybe they can make it an all-day dogfight.

 
Run It Up said:
Playoff game winning drives:

Tom Brady 7

Joe Flacco 2

Russel Wilson 2

Andrew Luck 1

Tony Romo 1

Peyton Manning 1
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How many versus Ravens?

I agree with The_Man --and I think Ravens need big game(s) from someone not on radar -- Campanaro, Aiken, Brown, Gilmore --for them to win

 
Career playoff record excluding wildcard round . . .

Brady 16-7

Peyton 8-8

Flacco 5-4

Wilson 3-1

Rodgers 3-2

Netwon 0-1

Luck 0-1

Romo 0-2

 
Playoff points per game average:

Rogers 29.00

Wilson 28.20

Luck 25.50

Brady 25.12

Flacco 24.29

Mannning 22.52

Romo 19.60

Newton 18.50

 
Playoff morning, GBs!

Let's kick some Raven ###!

What's the line for Browner and S.Smith post-play scuffles? I'd put it at 5 with a 60% chance they both get booted from the game.

 
I don't think I've been this pumped for a playoff game in sometime.

Like others have said, in recent years, I never really thought the Pats had much of a chance to go all the way, mostly due to the obvious, glaring weaknesses in the defense. But, I'm as confident as I've been in a long time in this team's ability to get to the SB.

I've talked to other fans that are worried or unsure. So I have a PSA on behalf of Pats fans: we're going to win this game and we're going to win the next game. I'll eat crow otherwise, but let's all be confident - dare I say, arrogant - that we're going to pound the Ravens to submission.

There's your pregame pep speech.

 
Good luck today, Pats fans.

As a Ravens fan, it's been a frustrating season for me to watch. They haven't really played well enough to be here. It's just that nobody else did either.

 
captain_amazing said:
Uruk-Hai said:
Good luck today, Pats fans.

As a Ravens fan, it's been a frustrating season for me to watch. They haven't really played well enough to be here. It's just that nobody else did either.
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GL to you too, GB!
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I think for Baltimore to win, it has to turn into an ugly, slobber-knocker kind of game with weird plays, big kick returns, and turnovers. Flacco can't beat Brady in a pretty and artistic shootout, IMO.

 
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Uruk-Hai said:
Good luck today, Pats fans.

As a Ravens fan, it's been a frustrating season for me to watch. They haven't really played well enough to be here. It's just that nobody else did either.
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I wouldn't take any nfl team lightly, but balt is one of only a handful of teams I don't think you can ever look past.

pretty amazing that they made the playoffs with those secondary issues, and in a pretty tough division.

 
Uruk-Hai said:
captain_amazing said:
Uruk-Hai said:
Good luck today, Pats fans.

As a Ravens fan, it's been a frustrating season for me to watch. They haven't really played well enough to be here. It's just that nobody else did either.
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GL to you too, GB!
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I think for Baltimore to win, it has to turn into an ugly, slobber-knocker kind of game with weird plays, big kick returns, and turnovers. Flacco can't beat Brady in a pretty and artistic shootout, IMO.
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As much as I hate guys like Suggs and Lewis there are still a lot of Ravens that I have respect for like Flacco and Harbaugh. It's hard to figure out how they just flick a switch when it comes playoff time. Eerily similar to the G-men. If we don't beat this team today then I will be truly convinced that they have our #.

We could easily be 0-3 vs them in the playoffs if not for Lee Evans. We have no excuses today, everyone is 100% ready to go.

I'd like to see the Pats match the physicality of the Ravens on both sides of the ball. It's easy to push around teams like the Colts in the playoffs, just once would I like to see them bring it vs a physical team like the Ravens. If they can do that I like their chances.

 
Given that it is going to be marginally warmer Saturday, any thought on practicing inside today from a health perspective?

Belichick: Nope.

You're mean (said jokingly). It's cold.

Belichick: We're playing outside, we're practicing outside.

When Belichick was asked about the Ravens' play-action passing game, he provided several lengthy, detailed answers and the news conference just kept going and going and going.
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Baloney Sandwich said:
41-13 Pats...Baltimore has no answer for Gronk. I expect the Pats to spread them out and go uptempo for most of the game. Jimmy gets his playoff feet wet with around 8 minutes left in the

4th.
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I'm amending my prediction as I think I was being a bit of a homer and not giving enough respect to the Ravens. My revised prediction is 41-16 Pats and Jimmy not getting into the until there is 6 and half minutes left in the fourth.

 
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