Initial Dynasty Draft Theory (1 Viewer)

[Our Gang]

This season, if you are picking in the 8-10 slot in a 12 team league there is a very strong case to take wr/wr.

Here is the logic of the initial draft from this spot:

1. All of the RB worth taking in a dyansty league will be gonet

LJ,SA,LT,Portis Gone- Barber-too old to take early in dynasty, Westbrook- too frequently injured, Edge- getting old, injury history, new team. Caddie, Ronnie, S-Jax- no stud seasons yet.

2. Typically, once a wr is proven to be a stud, he stays that way. So you can take a young stud CJ, LFitz, SS. You will probably get 2 of 3 if you take wr/wr. Keep in mind this is dynasty and the average career of a wr>>rb.

3. This now will put you in the driver's seat of your initial draft, because once you take the 2nd stud wr off the board, you will either start a wr run , which will give you a good value at RB in the 3rd. Or...they will keep taking rb off the board and you can get another wr ahead of his adp.

4. Except for Manning, there isnt a qb out there that I would take before the 7th or 8th round in an initial dynasty draft. All the rest are either too old, have injury concerns, or a just not worth the risk.

5. WR are more difficult to project as stars early in the career compared to RB's.

6. In rounds 4-6 you take young, promising RB's. grab a TE in round 7 or best value of wr/rb if you are TE optional

7. You can look to round 8 for a qb

8. Fill in team as needed.

So based upon the FBG top 104 dynasty, your team can look like this:

QBhilip Rivers(8)

RB:LenDale White (4),Joseph Addai (5), Frank Gore (6) or ((Dominic Rhodes (7))

WR:Chad Johnson (1), Steve Smith (2), Reggie Wayne (3) or ((Matt Jones(7))

TE:((Vernon Davis (7))

So, now you are set at the WR position for the next 7-10 years. You may not win it all in the first season, but now you can focus your drafts upon aquiring RB's who will contribute in the first season they are drafted vs a wr that typcially take 2-3 years before you would really consider starting them.

 

[Highway Robbery]

The RBs that you think will be there won't. In future drafts the RBs will only be there if your team sucks.

 

[EBF]

It's not a bad idea at all, but I think you're almost obligated to draft a RB with one of your first two picks if you want to have any chance of competing in the short-term.

That said, I definitely agree that WRs offer great value in initial dynasty drafts.

Take a look at the FBG staff dynasty rankings:

Willis McGahee is ahead of Larry Fitzgerald, Chad Johnson, Antonio Gates, and Steve Smith.

DeAngelo Williams is ahead of Terrell Owens and Marvin Harrison.

Reuben Droughns is ahead of Santana Moss and Darrell Jackson.

Chester Taylor and Willie Parker are ahead of Hines Ward and Jeremy Shockey.

Chris Brown and Frank Gore are ahead of Laveranues Coles.

Isn't that a bit absurd?

It sure seems like madness to me. I understand that RBs are more valuable than WRs in many formats due to scarcity and scoring issues, but it's still absurd. Willis McGahee is not more likely to help you win than Chad Johnson. DeAngelo Williams is not more likely to help you win that Santana Moss. Reuben Droughns is not more likely to help you win than Darrell Jackson. I could go on and on.

My new dynasty philosophy is to make every pick count. I'm fully willing to take risks on young players, but I also recognize the value of oft-overlooked guys like Ward, Shockey, and Coles. There's something to be said for a track record of success. As someone who has taken William Green over Randy Moss, Kevan Barlow over Terrell Owens, and Travis Henry over Torry Holt, I can tell you that the fascination with RBs is a dangerous (and stupid) one.

 

[fruity pebbles]

You better hope this league is solid though. Most league don't make it, folding after a few years. Unless you really hit on one of those runningbacks, you're going to have a long couple seasons with that team.

 

[raydc]

very interesting post. the only problem i think is that white, gore, addai, rhodes may NEVER be a franchise RB. if you dont get at least one stud RB, you'll always be scrambling to get a franchise RB which are so hard to come by. maybe one RB and one WR migth be safer.

 

[fruity pebbles]

For that kind of strategy you'd be better off trading the first round pick for a second and third.

 

[-OZ-]

For that kind of strategy you'd be better off trading the first round pick for a second and third.

I have yet to do this, but I've always liked the thought.

In one league, where I drafted from the 14th spot (14 teams), I was going to try to do this when my pick came up, but as it approached, I found Portis available.

Just to say, wait until your pick comes up, but I'd definetly look at trading down with your theory.

 

[coolnerd]

I used WR/WR out of the 11th spot in the HyperActive league. My thought was that Steve Smith and Chad Jackson would be top 5-10 WRs for the next 5 years and built the core of my team around having two elite players at their position.

My RBs have questions, but in this league I can start anywhere from 1 RB to 4 Rb and the same at WR. My hope is to go 3/2 or 2/3 most weeks. The four Rbs that I depending on are Duece, Benson, Dunn and Dayne. all have questions but assuming the performance of my top 2 WRs, if 2 of them go top 10-15 then I will be competitive this year.

I also picked up an extra 1st round pick later in the draft giving me more future options to work with.

 

[J-Rock]

I'm not sure I buy the idea that you will struggle to find decent RB to carry you through your first season or 2 using this draft strayegy. In a new dynasty guys like S.Jax, R.Brown, and Caddy will fly off the board for the same reason guys like Dillon, J. Lewis, C. Brown, Dunn, etc. will still be there in the 3rd and 4th round. You can compete with these guys at RB and 2 of the top 5 WR's for at least a year or 2.

This gives you time to target RB's in the up coming rookie drafts who like you said will develop much quicker than rookie WR's.

I've always been an RB, RB, RB/WR guy but I can see this approach working.

 

[Our Gang]

You better hope this league is solid though. Most league don't make it, folding after a few years. Unless you really hit on one of those runningbacks, you're going to have a long couple seasons with that team.

This is a family league that we started and there is more family wanting in, so we have replacements too/