Injury's... what players should we avoid? (1 Viewer)

[dorsey]

Here's the story...... The last two years I've done really good in my league drafts and came out winning, only to be hit with the injury bug and been decimated by playoff time. I work the waiver wire and do the best with whats left, even winning the first year despite the injuries.....

I know you can't predict whos going to get injured, but I like to try and have a better chance of preventing that this year..

So I'm asking based on the injurys that players sustained last year that are just now coming back and the new ones that have occured in training camps.... who would you avoid in this years draft?

 

[Bri]

injury thread pinned above

 

[dorsey]

injury thread pinned above

I'm not asking who's injured.... I know who's injured. I'm asking for peoples opinion on who they thinked is most likely to get re-injured once the season starts... But thanks for the reply..

 

[Big Score]

Ahman Green....if he's even able to start.

Ditto Davenpoop

 

[dorsey]

I'm not liking what I hear about curtis martin either and will most likely avoid him, based on age and his injury

 

[Bri]

injury thread pinned above

I'm not asking who's injured.... I know who's injured. I'm asking for peoples opinion on who they thinked is most likely to get re-injured once the season starts... But thanks for the reply..

thought the reference was needed to make this thread "work", that's all

 

[Warpig]

Let's see, you have the usual suspects:

Grossman

Foster

Jamal Lewis

Ahman Green

Domanick Davis

Fred Taylor

Pennington

Deuce McAllister

Then there's these guys:

KWII

Curtis Martin

Michael Bennett

Mewede Moore

Brees

Donte Stallworth

Todd Stinkston

Darrell Jackson

Marc Bulger

Julius Jones

 

[Godsbrother]

Here are a couple more that are likely to get hurt

Corey Dillon

Duce Staley

Todd Heap

Steve McNair

Chris Brown

Kurt Warner

 

[DoubleG]

There was an interesting article on...well...erm...another website that shall remain nameless(?) that had some interesting statistical support for RBs that had very heavy workloads from the previous season and how they are more likely to miss more time this season as a result. The 3 discussed in the article from last year specifically are:

Tiki (357 carries + 54 receptions = 411 times getting hit)

Edge (360 + 44 = 404)

ShAlex (370 + 15 = 385)

Again, just passing on info that is backed up by statistical suuport. I realize Tiki is usually predicted to hit the proverbial wall almost every year - maybe this year he wont be so lucky as to "miss". Now, to be honest, Edge being on a new team scares me more than injury threat. ShAlex I wouldn't drop down either (unless it's for lack of Hutch on the OL).

Others that I would be concerned with:

Older guys with recent injuries/surgery:

Joe Horn

C. Martin

A. Green

M. Harrison

Of course, any guys that seem to be injury prone (I believe someon referred to them as the "usual suspects", like:

C. Benson

D. Foster

D. Jax

F. Taylor

D. Davis

C. Brown

 

[Snotbubbles]

Tiki (357 carries + 54 receptions = 411 times getting hit)

Tiki scored 11 TDs so 411-11=400Then you have to consider how many times he ran out of bounds. Then you have to consider the type of hits he took (ie, certain runners take more punishment per hit then other based on running styles).

 

[Bri]

Tiki (357 carries + 54 receptions = 411 times getting hit)

Tiki scored 11 TDs so 411-11=400Then you have to consider how many times he ran out of bounds. Then you have to consider the type of hits he took (ie, certain runners take more punishment per hit then other based on running styles).

Tiki's pretty tough. He's taken alot of serious hits and played thru enough injuries to have completely won my respect.

 

[dorsey]

Thanks Everyone who responded, I appreciate the input.

how do you feel about QB's like Culpepper, Carson Palmer, Pennington, Mcnabb. Who would you avoid?

 

[Z-Dog]

It largely depends on where you can get them. McNabb and Palmer still have very high ADPs and are not worth the risk imo. Especially McNabb, who had no real WRs and is unlikely to run like he used to. Culpepper is a big question mark, but he's available a bit later and seems like a reasonable gamble, particularly b/c he has some offensive talent around him. Pennington is a big injury risk, but he can usually be had very cheap, and is a nice play from a PPG perspective. He probably doesn't need more than 10 starts to outplay his ADP. His offensive weaponry is pretty poor though.

 

[DoubleG]

Tiki (357 carries + 54 receptions = 411 times getting hit)

Tiki scored 11 TDs so 411-11=400Then you have to consider how many times he ran out of bounds.

Then you have to consider the type of hits he took (ie, certain runners take more punishment per hit then other based on running styles).

Tiki's pretty tough. He's taken alot of serious hits and played thru enough injuries to have completely won my respect.

No offense guys, but please don't selectively quote me - as I said, this was not MY opinion based on simple touches stats. The article entitled "RB Workloads" (while I hate to refer people to other sites) on FFToday uses historical data to back up the point that almost 30% of RBs that had that type of workload miss 4+ games the following season - with over half missing some games. Another point in the article has to do with production from a fantasy point perspective (not just games). Summarizing the article's point: the three listed above according to historical data have about a 75% of finishing this year with less than 200 fpts. (That would place all 3 outside the top 10). Do I think that's going to happen? No - I think ShAlex will be in the top 10. But I wouldn't be shocked to see Barber and Edge drop out of the top 10. However, as this thread is about injuries, Edge will likely suffer from a different problem: "lousyrunningteam-itis". Will Tiki be worthless? Certainly not. Will he finish in the top 5 again? Historical data seems to suggest the odds are strongly against it. One other quick thing - Tiki has tons of my respect for what he has accomplished; I just prefer to let facts be more of my guide than emotion

 

[Fla\/\/ed]

Ahman Green....if he's even able to start.

Ditto Davenpoop