Is Dunn a 1st round pick? (1 Viewer)

[agent 86]

I realize that he's 31 which usually isn't a good sign. He also has Vick to vulture TD's. He also has a tough division with Tampa and Carolina.

However:

* He's never had a 300 carry season.

* He's coming off a year averaging > 5 ypc

* The Falcons have always been a run-1st team

* He appears to be in line for a lot more goalline work

* He appears to be 100% healthy (for now)

Compared with other late 1st rounders like Jordan, Williams, Brown, etal, Dunn may not be a bad choice here IMHO. He seems to be more primed for a big season than the likes of Westbrook, Davis, Mcgahee, or either Jones. If you up his TD's to even 6-7, while giving him 300 carries, he could easily fall in the RB8-RB10 range.

What do you guys think?

 

[Pots]

IUf you have a late first round pick and you want Dunn, take him with your early 2nd round pick, or maybe even *gasp* trade down? Taking him with a 1st rounder is stupid since you can find some way to get him later and utilize the best value of the draft.

 

[FF Maestro]

I realize that he's 31 which usually isn't a good sign. He also has Vick to vulture TD's. He also has a tough division with Tampa and Carolina. However:* He's never had a 300 carry season.* He's coming off a year averaging > 5 ypc* The Falcons have always been a run-1st team* He appears to be in line for a lot more goalline work* He appears to be 100% healthy (for now)Compared with other late 1st rounders like Jordan, Williams, Brown, etal, Dunn may not be a bad choice here IMHO. He seems to be more primed for a big season than the likes of Westbrook, Davis, Mcgahee, or either Jones. If you up his TD's to even 6-7, while giving him 300 carries, he could easily fall in the RB8-RB10 range.What do you guys think?

Duckett's departure should give Dunn more opportunities, but I think it's more a sign that they feel comfortable with giving Norwood playing time. Dunn is more of a commodity now, but I don't think that projects him into the top 12. I can see drafting him in the middle to later third round now.

 

[Sack-Religious]

You could take him in the 1st, but why? He's still available in the 2nd or early-mid 3rd. If you're not sold on the other RB's grab a stud WR and get him a little later, but while I like Dunn I don't think it's prudent of you to take him in the first when he'll more than likely be there with your 2nd or even 3rd round pick.

If you're drafting near the bottom of a 10 or 12 team league, you can safely get one of the RB's you mentioned, a 2nd RB or a stud WR and still pick Warrick up in the 3rd.

 

[Festivus]

I think the original poster was really trying to get at this question; Is Dunn a top 10 RB after the trade?

My anser to that question, is maybe. I think he will be RB 10-14 at season's end, which is pretty good value if you can get him in the 3rd round.

 

[Sullie]

I like Dunn a lot, I seem to get the guy every year, it seems everyone else passes on him and I get him - that or I just draft him too early. My problem with the guy, from what I've watched, is that there was a good reason they brought Duckett in on the goal line. I feel Dunn is just too small (5-9/180) to punch it in on the goal line so you end up losing some easy TD's in those situations, Duckett is listed at (6-0/254), so for that reason I think his value is down. I think he's a good top 15 back, maybe he's a 10-15 kind of guy?

Just my 2 cents.

 

[Boston]

The question is can you win a league with Warrick Dunn being the biggest piece of your foundation. I like Dunn but I think you're setting yourself up for a mediocre year if he's your franchise player. Drafting him with a #1 is almost saying you will always use your first round pick on a RB regardless of what else is on the board.

 

[Z-Dog]

I don't think Dunn is going to get significantly more work this year than last year. Sorry, but betting on a 31-year old back to break his carries and productivity record in the first round is a sucker's bet. Taking Dunn in the 1st is the height of guppydom.

 

[Warpig]

I like Dunn a lot, I seem to get the guy every year, it seems everyone else passes on him and I get him - that or I just draft him too early. My problem with the guy, from what I've watched, is that there was a good reason they brought Duckett in on the goal line. I feel Dunn is just too small (5-9/180) to punch it in on the goal line so you end up losing some easy TD's in those situations, Duckett is listed at (6-0/254), so for that reason I think his value is down. I think he's a good top 15 back, maybe he's a 10-15 kind of guy?Just my 2 cents.

The thing with this theory is that Norwood isn't much bigger than Dunn...so who's gonna get those goalline touches? Does it mean that Vick is gonna be a TD vulture more than he already was? Do they use the fullback more? It's gonna be interesting to see how it pans out.

 

[David Yudkin]

As I mentioned in some of the other threads, I'm as big a Dunn fan as anyone, but why is it a given that anything in the Duckett column will get transferred to the Dunn column?

I personally do not think that after 4 years in ATL and almost being 32 that the team is going to start thinking he can handle a Larry Johnson type workload.

IMO, people are assuming way too much here that Dunn inherits things that he didn't see before. For example, Culpepper left MIN . . . so does Brad Johnson get projected the rushing stats and goal line TD that C-Pep did?

I still think last year was a career year for Dunn and those thinking he will duplicate that success again will be disappointed. Last year was the first and only time he cracked the Top 12, and at his age and his stature I am not projecting him to start taking on an extra 100 touches a year. He may but up somewher between his 2004 and 2005 numbers but I would be leary of burning a late first or early second round pick on him.

I suspect that the Falcons have a plan that does not involve Dunn getting Dunn+Duckett production, and we will see where they are headed as the season progresses.

 

[[icon]]

Does anyone here think Norwood is the future in Atlanta?

Does he get the rock next year?

The guy is good....

 

[Boston]

I like Dunn a lot, I seem to get the guy every year, it seems everyone else passes on him and I get him - that or I just draft him too early. My problem with the guy, from what I've watched, is that there was a good reason they brought Duckett in on the goal line. I feel Dunn is just too small (5-9/180) to punch it in on the goal line so you end up losing some easy TD's in those situations, Duckett is listed at (6-0/254), so for that reason I think his value is down. I think he's a good top 15 back, maybe he's a 10-15 kind of guy?Just my 2 cents.

The thing with this theory is that Norwood isn't much bigger than Dunn...so who's gonna get those goalline touches? Does it mean that Vick is gonna be a TD vulture more than he already was? Do they use the fullback more? It's gonna be interesting to see how it pans out.

I think one potential scenario many are overlooking is what if Norwood turns out to be a big time player. If that's the case (and I'm not saying this is a definite by any means) than Dunn's numbers could actually take a hit. When it was Duckett and Dunn you pretty much knew what to expect as both backs had defined roles. Yet, with Norwood in the fold it's a little more unsettling. If he's nothing special and Dunn does get the GL carries than his numbers could improve. Yet, if Norwood ends up being a high quality player he could actually steal some of Dunn's carries and receptions in a way Duckett couldn't.

 

[Sullie]

I like Dunn a lot, I seem to get the guy every year, it seems everyone else passes on him and I get him - that or I just draft him too early. My problem with the guy, from what I've watched, is that there was a good reason they brought Duckett in on the goal line. I feel Dunn is just too small (5-9/180) to punch it in on the goal line so you end up losing some easy TD's in those situations, Duckett is listed at (6-0/254), so for that reason I think his value is down. I think he's a good top 15 back, maybe he's a 10-15 kind of guy?Just my 2 cents.

The thing with this theory is that Norwood isn't much bigger than Dunn...so who's gonna get those goalline touches? Does it mean that Vick is gonna be a TD vulture more than he already was? Do they use the fullback more? It's gonna be interesting to see how it pans out.

I dunno, Norwood is listed at 6-0/203 on Atlanta's site, that's 23lbs more than Dunn. Maybe you're right they either use the fullback more or Vick is either going to run it in himself more or he'll throw it in. I watched a few Falcons games last year and I noticed that the majority of the time Dunn had first crack at the endzone before Duckett came in. Like I say though, just my 2 cents as a non-fan/observer.

 

[jasvic]

As I mentioned in some of the other threads, I'm as big a Dunn fan as anyone, but why is it a given that anything in the Duckett column will get transferred to the Dunn column?I personally do not think that after 4 years in ATL and almost being 32 that the team is going to start thinking he can handle a Larry Johnson type workload.IMO, people are assuming way too much here that Dunn inherits things that he didn't see before. For example, Culpepper left MIN . . . so does Brad Johnson get projected the rushing stats and goal line TD that C-Pep did?I still think last year was a career year for Dunn and those thinking he will duplicate that success again will be disappointed. Last year was the first and only time he cracked the Top 12, and at his age and his stature I am not projecting him to start taking on an extra 100 touches a year. He may but up somewher between his 2004 and 2005 numbers but I would be leary of burning a late first or early second round pick on him.I suspect that the Falcons have a plan that does not involve Dunn getting Dunn+Duckett production, and we will see where they are headed as the season progresses.

The funny thing is he actually had more fantasy points in '04 then he did in '05 thanks to more TDs.I don't think he automatically gets a ton more touches or all of the TDs that went to Duckett, but he should get some. But does it seem fair to think he'll get about 1250 on the ground, another 250 receiving and 7-10 TDs total?Let's be optimistic and say 9 TDs, that gives him 204 fantasy points, that would put him 8th this year using the projections on this site as a meter. Give him only 7 TDs and he still finishes 11th (which goes to show how little difference there is between RBs at that range, but that's another discussion).The only argument I can see making for Dunn to not be top 12 or so is Norwood stealing time or another money goalline player comes in to replace Duckett.Back to the OP, no way I take him first round. He could be your first RB taken, assuming you get a Manning or stud WR with your first pick. But as others have said, you can get him in the 2nd or 3rd, so why take him first?

 

[David Yudkin]

As I mentioned in some of the other threads, I'm as big a Dunn fan as anyone, but why is it a given that anything in the Duckett column will get transferred to the Dunn column?I personally do not think that after 4 years in ATL and almost being 32 that the team is going to start thinking he can handle a Larry Johnson type workload.IMO, people are assuming way too much here that Dunn inherits things that he didn't see before. For example, Culpepper left MIN . . . so does Brad Johnson get projected the rushing stats and goal line TD that C-Pep did?I still think last year was a career year for Dunn and those thinking he will duplicate that success again will be disappointed. Last year was the first and only time he cracked the Top 12, and at his age and his stature I am not projecting him to start taking on an extra 100 touches a year. He may but up somewher between his 2004 and 2005 numbers but I would be leary of burning a late first or early second round pick on him.I suspect that the Falcons have a plan that does not involve Dunn getting Dunn+Duckett production, and we will see where they are headed as the season progresses.

The funny thing is he actually had more fantasy points in '04 then he did in '05 thanks to more TDs.I don't think he automatically gets a ton more touches or all of the TDs that went to Duckett, but he should get some. But does it seem fair to think he'll get about 1250 on the ground, another 250 receiving and 7-10 TDs total?Let's be optimistic and say 9 TDs, that gives him 204 fantasy points, that would put him 8th this year using the projections on this site as a meter. Give him only 7 TDs and he still finishes 11th (which goes to show how little difference there is between RBs at that range, but that's another discussion).The only argument I can see making for Dunn to not be top 12 or so is Norwood stealing time or another money goalline player comes in to replace Duckett.Back to the OP, no way I take him first round. He could be your first RB taken, assuming you get a Manning or stud WR with your first pick. But as others have said, you can get him in the 2nd or 3rd, so why take him first?

Using a 3-year average theory of projections, Dunn would be in line for 1,065 rushing yards, 283 receiving yards, and 6 total TD = 171 fantasy points.From that, you can adjust up or down based on new market conditions or other external factors. IMO, Dunn's potential for increased opportunities is offset by his age and Norwood's presence. So I would not project Dunn for much more than the 170-180 point range. Last year, that would have put him in the RB 13-16 range but in 2004 that would have ranked him in the 19-21 range. IMO, Dunn could rank anywhere from the RB12 to the RB20 and it won't make much difference as the range of actual points scored differentiating that range should be minimal. I think people get wat too bent out of shape over rankings when people should be looking at tiers and actual points scored. Dunn's value over the years has been that you could wait and take him much later than other backs and get decent RB2 production without having to burn a second round pick. Sadly, I don't think Dunn will offer anywhere near his past value this year because someone will see the departure of Duckett as their cue to take Dunn in the second round. He's probably worth the pick there, but I don't see him with a chance to have a Top 5 season so IMO his upside is limited.

 

[RKMoney]

I realize that he's 31 which usually isn't a good sign. He also has Vick to vulture TD's. He also has a tough division with Tampa and Carolina.

However:

* He's never had a 300 carry season.

* He's coming off a year averaging > 5 ypc

* The Falcons have always been a run-1st team

* He appears to be in line for a lot more goalline work

* He appears to be 100% healthy (for now)

Compared with other late 1st rounders like Jordan, Williams, Brown, etal, Dunn may not be a bad choice here IMHO. He seems to be more primed for a big season than the likes of Westbrook, Davis, Mcgahee, or either Jones. If you up his TD's to even 6-7, while giving him 300 carries, he could easily fall in the RB8-RB10 range.

What do you guys think?

Huh?Players who were =>30 last year who were top 10 in my league (.5 PPR + 1 pt per 20 yards rush + 3 bonus per 100 rushing game)

Rank / Player Year Born

#1 / Tiki / June 1975

#4 / CMART / May 1973

#7 CDillon / Oct 1974

#10 / Priest / Oct 1973

So, 4 out of top 10 RB isn't a good sign because they were deemed too old?

 

[jasvic]

Using a 3-year average theory of projections, Dunn would be in line for 1,065 rushing yards, 283 receiving yards, and 6 total TD = 171 fantasy points.

From that, you can adjust up or down based on new market conditions or other external factors. IMO, Dunn's potential for increased opportunities is offset by his age and Norwood's presence. So I would not project Dunn for much more than the 170-180 point range. Last year, that would have put him in the RB 13-16 range but in 2004 that would have ranked him in the 19-21 range. IMO, Dunn could rank anywhere from the RB12 to the RB20 and it won't make much difference as the range of actual points scored differentiating that range should be minimal. I think people get wat too bent out of shape over rankings when people should be looking at tiers and actual points scored.

Dunn's value over the years has been that you could wait and take him much later than other backs and get decent RB2 production without having to burn a second round pick. Sadly, I don't think Dunn will offer anywhere near his past value this year because someone will see the departure of Duckett as their cue to take Dunn in the second round. He's probably worth the pick there, but I don't see him with a chance to have a Top 5 season so IMO his upside is limited.

I completely agree with the rankings hang-up. Like I said with the number I mentioned above, take away a couple TDs and he drops 4 spots or so.I also agree he could be 12-20, I also think he has the chance to be slightly higher, but again we go back to being hung-up on rankings, and it's his value that's important, which could take a drop this year thanks to the trade and people taking him earlier, which is the whole point of this thread.

One thing I disagree with is your numbers, mainly because using a 3 year average, you're not taking into account the time he missed in '03. He missed the last 4-5 games (not sure exactly as the stats on the site here are conflicting themselves, totals vs game logs). Unless your predicting injuries, the average should be higher.

Fun to discuss, and we agree that he isn't the value he once was due to the spotlight from the trade, but I think his ceiling is a bit higher then you do, it would seem.

Edit to add. No way do I think he can be top 5, but he could finish 7-10. Only a few spots, but definitely a different tier.

 

[David Yudkin]

The 3-year average theory usually includes some missed time which IMO makes it more realistic. IIRC, Dunn missed 5 games in 2003 and that would dilute his total stats to reflect playing in 14 games. With the average missed time for RBs each year at 2 games and change, that is a pretty decent number to start with.

In most years, 200 points is around the cutoff for ranking in the Top 10. IMO, Dunn will need more of a workload and more TD to get to that range. Certainly not impossible, but I think it is unlikely for 10 year vets to have their fitst Top 10 season at 31 or 32.

There have only been 12 RB that have been 31 or older that scored 200 fantasy points in a season. Since 1990 there have been three: Martin in 2004 (278), Watters in 2000 (240), and Anderson last year (200).

Again, not saying it can't or won't happen, only that I'd be pretty surprised if it di.

 

[BGP]

As I mentioned in some of the other threads, I'm as big a Dunn fan as anyone, but why is it a given that anything in the Duckett column will get transferred to the Dunn column?I still think last year was a career year for Dunn and those thinking he will duplicate that success again will be disappointed. Last year was the first and only time he cracked the Top 12, and at his age and his stature I am not projecting him to start taking on an extra 100 touches a year. He may but up somewher between his 2004 and 2005 numbers but I would be leary of burning a late first or early second round pick on him.

There are two large reasons Dunn was getting drafted so low.1. Duckett could be expected to further cut into Dunn's playing time.2. Dunn is over 30 and his skills may sharply diminish soon.Trading away Duckett puts all of those fears to rest. Duckett cannot take Dunn's job. If there was any concern over Dunn's abilities privately bugging the Falcons' staff, they surely don't trade away Duckett. I don't know if you could be more confident in Dunn's abilities for 2006 at this point.The bottom line is the Falcons seem extremely confident in Dunn. So I am too.I think he's upper second round at this point.

 

[agent 86]

Thanks for the input. I didn't mean to imply that I or anyone else should draft Dunn in the 1st 12 picks, but rather could one expect to get top-12 value. If you're drafting at the end (9-12), you probably would have to draft Dunn at 13-16 to get him. I can't see him lasting to 33-36 with Duckett gone. I realize it's alot to expect 5.0 ypc again, but with the respect for Vick and the WR's ability to at least draw deep coverage, Dunn will probably have a ypc above most other top RB's. I don't think 1600-1700 total yds is out of the question if he plays every game. I believe the Falcons felt they had to get TJ the ball the last couple of years.

 

[huckyoda]

in a 30-team draft, Dunn is a 1st rounder.

 

[David Yudkin]

Dunn had 1600 yards last year, so yes he could repeat. FWIW, Dodds has him at 1400.

 

[BGP]

Part of the problem with the second round is that you start looking at starting RBs that have increased risk attached to them. Julius Jones is one. There's a real risk there that it devolves into RBBC. Kevin Jones is one - he only had 664 yards rushing last year. But with Dunn, you're looking at a player where the risks have been sharply reduced.

 

[Native]

Warranted or not, rhreads like this always artificially boost a players value. (In this case, it IS warranred, but thats beside the point).

 

[Hairy Snowman]

Just a quick note - under the "Crew Discusses 3-Way Trade" video on NFL.com Eisen states that Mora has declared that Dunn WILL BE HIS GOALLINE RB.

IMO That means at least 3-5 more carries per game and goalline duties.

Upside - He is a full time starter - period.

Downside: has he EVER taken that many touches (don't forget he is a top 3 targeted receiver on that team also).

My analysis is that he is likely going to get hurt before the end of the season (not many people can handle the ball 350+ times in the NFL and not get hurt), but IMO he probably puts good numbers (1400 Total yards sounds good) before he goes down.

Mid to late 2nd round. Closer to the front of the 2nd rounds in PPR leagues.

 

[KevT]

As I mentioned in some of the other threads, I'm as big a Dunn fan as anyone, but why is it a given that anything in the Duckett column will get transferred to the Dunn column?

I personally do not think that after 4 years in ATL and almost being 32 that the team is going to start thinking he can handle a Larry Johnson type workload.

IMO, people are assuming way too much here that Dunn inherits things that he didn't see before. For example, Culpepper left MIN . . . so does Brad Johnson get projected the rushing stats and goal line TD that C-Pep did?

I still think last year was a career year for Dunn and those thinking he will duplicate that success again will be disappointed. Last year was the first and only time he cracked the Top 12, and at his age and his stature I am not projecting him to start taking on an extra 100 touches a year. He may but up somewher between his 2004 and 2005 numbers but I would be leary of burning a late first or early second round pick on him.

I suspect that the Falcons have a plan that does not involve Dunn getting Dunn+Duckett production, and we will see where they are headed as the season progresses.

Sorry don't see how Brad Johnson and Culpepper compare to Dunn's situation. Brad is an immobile QB, Culpepper is/was a very a mobile QB. How can you compare? There's no way Brad could ever get what Culpepper got on the ground. Whereas it's possible that Dunn could see a lot more goaline carries.

Those of you considering Dunn in the early 2nd, might want to take a look at Willie Parker instead.

 

[RKMoney]

As I mentioned in some of the other threads, I'm as big a Dunn fan as anyone, but why is it a given that anything in the Duckett column will get transferred to the Dunn column?

I still think last year was a career year for Dunn and those thinking he will duplicate that success again will be disappointed. Last year was the first and only time he cracked the Top 12, and at his age and his stature I am not projecting him to start taking on an extra 100 touches a year. He may but up somewher between his 2004 and 2005 numbers but I would be leary of burning a late first or early second round pick on him.

There are two large reasons Dunn was getting drafted so low.1. Duckett could be expected to further cut into Dunn's playing time.

2. Dunn is over 30 and his skills may sharply diminish soon.

Trading away Duckett puts all of those fears to rest. Duckett cannot take Dunn's job. If there was any concern over Dunn's abilities privately bugging the Falcons' staff, they surely don't trade away Duckett. I don't know if you could be more confident in Dunn's abilities for 2006 at this point.

The bottom line is the Falcons seem extremely confident in Dunn. So I am too.

I think he's upper second round at this point.

Again with the age thing. If he's getting drafted lower due partly because his age then it wouldn't matter if Duckett is traded or not.We won't employ you because:

1. We have someone who is just as good as you working for us now

2. You are underage

If person in #1 leaves the company, guess what, we still won't hire you because you are under age

 

[SSOG]

The question is can you win a league with Warrick Dunn being the biggest piece of your foundation. I like Dunn but I think you're setting yourself up for a mediocre year if he's your franchise player. Drafting him with a #1 is almost saying you will always use your first round pick on a RB regardless of what else is on the board.

I always hate posts like this, just because I disagree so strongly.50+% of first rounders bust. If you draft someone in the first round, and he doesn't bust, then you're already ahead of the curve, no matter whether your first rounder was Warrick Dunn or Antonio Gates.

 

[RKMoney]

The question is can you win a league with Warrick Dunn being the biggest piece of your foundation. I like Dunn but I think you're setting yourself up for a mediocre year if he's your franchise player. Drafting him with a #1 is almost saying you will always use your first round pick on a RB regardless of what else is on the board.

I always hate posts like this, just because I disagree so strongly.50+% of first rounders bust. If you draft someone in the first round, and he doesn't bust, then you're already ahead of the curve, no matter whether your first rounder was Warrick Dunn or Antonio Gates.

To answer that question though, you can't. Same goes for ANY player you draft. Could get one of the big three and they underperform or get injured. Can't predict.

 

[David Yudkin]

As I mentioned in some of the other threads, I'm as big a Dunn fan as anyone, but why is it a given that anything in the Duckett column will get transferred to the Dunn column?I still think last year was a career year for Dunn and those thinking he will duplicate that success again will be disappointed. Last year was the first and only time he cracked the Top 12, and at his age and his stature I am not projecting him to start taking on an extra 100 touches a year. He may but up somewher between his 2004 and 2005 numbers but I would be leary of burning a late first or early second round pick on him.

There are two large reasons Dunn was getting drafted so low.1. Duckett could be expected to further cut into Dunn's playing time.2. Dunn is over 30 and his skills may sharply diminish soon.Trading away Duckett puts all of those fears to rest. Duckett cannot take Dunn's job. If there was any concern over Dunn's abilities privately bugging the Falcons' staff, they surely don't trade away Duckett. I don't know if you could be more confident in Dunn's abilities for 2006 at this point.The bottom line is the Falcons seem extremely confident in Dunn. So I am too.I think he's upper second round at this point.

To quote Joe T, nothing says that someone HAS to get the departed player's production. In this case, Dunn may not see any change in the way he's used, his opporunties, his goal line looks, etc. The assumpation many people are having is that whatever Duckett did (or most of it) will get transfered to Dunn.As for the "trading away Duckett puts all of those fears to rest," what about Norwood? Or Griffith? Or McCrary? Maybe the team plans on passing more. Maybe Vick calls his own number at the goalline. The team has not said boo about what they plan to do with Duckett gone.The fact of the matter is that last year was the first time Dunn broke 300 touches in a season. To be fair, he had around 290 in 3 others. I don't see him getting many more than that. His ypc average last year was a full yard higher than his career average. Maybe he repeats his productivity there as well, but not many RB average 5.1 yards a pop these days.Bottom line for me is that in prior seasons I could always look forward to letting many other RBs get plucked off the board and snag Dunn after the feeding frenzy. Now I suspect Dunn will be in the feeding frenzy, so while I will consider him someone else will already have him.

 

[BGP]

As I mentioned in some of the other threads, I'm as big a Dunn fan as anyone, but why is it a given that anything in the Duckett column will get transferred to the Dunn column?

I still think last year was a career year for Dunn and those thinking he will duplicate that success again will be disappointed. Last year was the first and only time he cracked the Top 12, and at his age and his stature I am not projecting him to start taking on an extra 100 touches a year. He may but up somewher between his 2004 and 2005 numbers but I would be leary of burning a late first or early second round pick on him.

There are two large reasons Dunn was getting drafted so low.1. Duckett could be expected to further cut into Dunn's playing time.

2. Dunn is over 30 and his skills may sharply diminish soon.

Trading away Duckett puts all of those fears to rest. Duckett cannot take Dunn's job. If there was any concern over Dunn's abilities privately bugging the Falcons' staff, they surely don't trade away Duckett. I don't know if you could be more confident in Dunn's abilities for 2006 at this point.

The bottom line is the Falcons seem extremely confident in Dunn. So I am too.

I think he's upper second round at this point.

To quote Joe T, nothing says that someone HAS to get the departed player's production. In this case, Dunn may not see any change in the way he's used, his opporunties, his goal line looks, etc. The assumpation many people are having is that whatever Duckett did (or most of it) will get transfered to Dunn.As for the "trading away Duckett puts all of those fears to rest," what about Norwood? Or Griffith? Or McCrary? Maybe the team plans on passing more. Maybe Vick calls his own number at the goalline. The team has not said boo about what they plan to do with Duckett gone.

The fact of the matter is that last year was the first time Dunn broke 300 touches in a season. To be fair, he had around 290 in 3 others. I don't see him getting many more than that. His ypc average last year was a full yard higher than his career average. Maybe he repeats his productivity there as well, but not many RB average 5.1 yards a pop these days.

Bottom line for me is that in prior seasons I could always look forward to letting many other RBs get plucked off the board and snag Dunn after the feeding frenzy. Now I suspect Dunn will be in the feeding frenzy, so while I will consider him someone else will already have him.

I'm not saying this means Dunn gets more opportunities. I'm not saying this puts all fears about Dunn to rest. I'm saying it sharply reduces the risks surrounding Dunn for 2006. I think round 2 is as much about finding RBs with low risk as anything.

 

[Hairy Snowman]

As I mentioned in some of the other threads, I'm as big a Dunn fan as anyone, but why is it a given that anything in the Duckett column will get transferred to the Dunn column?

I still think last year was a career year for Dunn and those thinking he will duplicate that success again will be disappointed. Last year was the first and only time he cracked the Top 12, and at his age and his stature I am not projecting him to start taking on an extra 100 touches a year. He may but up somewher between his 2004 and 2005 numbers but I would be leary of burning a late first or early second round pick on him.

There are two large reasons Dunn was getting drafted so low.1. Duckett could be expected to further cut into Dunn's playing time.

2. Dunn is over 30 and his skills may sharply diminish soon.

Trading away Duckett puts all of those fears to rest. Duckett cannot take Dunn's job. If there was any concern over Dunn's abilities privately bugging the Falcons' staff, they surely don't trade away Duckett. I don't know if you could be more confident in Dunn's abilities for 2006 at this point.

The bottom line is the Falcons seem extremely confident in Dunn. So I am too.

I think he's upper second round at this point.

To quote Joe T, nothing says that someone HAS to get the departed player's production. In this case, Dunn may not see any change in the way he's used, his opporunties, his goal line looks, etc. The assumpation many people are having is that whatever Duckett did (or most of it) will get transfered to Dunn.As for the "trading away Duckett puts all of those fears to rest," what about Norwood? Or Griffith? Or McCrary? Maybe the team plans on passing more. Maybe Vick calls his own number at the goalline. The team has not said boo about what they plan to do with Duckett gone.

The fact of the matter is that last year was the first time Dunn broke 300 touches in a season. To be fair, he had around 290 in 3 others. I don't see him getting many more than that. His ypc average last year was a full yard higher than his career average. Maybe he repeats his productivity there as well, but not many RB average 5.1 yards a pop these days.

Bottom line for me is that in prior seasons I could always look forward to letting many other RBs get plucked off the board and snag Dunn after the feeding frenzy. Now I suspect Dunn will be in the feeding frenzy, so while I will consider him someone else will already have him.

I'm not saying this means Dunn gets more opportunities. I'm not saying this puts all fears about Dunn to rest. I'm saying it sharply reduces the risks surrounding Dunn for 2006. I think round 2 is as much about finding RBs with low risk as anything.

Did anyone read my post?mora has stated that Dunn will be his Goal Line Back. If that doesn't say that his role is being altered, I dont know what you need.

Someone give me a tack hammer.

 

[agent 86]

I saw the segment on NFLTotal Access. It seems to me that Mora wants to do what ever will get the Falcons back to the playoffs. Dunn was his best player last year and he still felt pressure to put Duckett in the game in short yardage/goalline which meant taking Dunn out of the game. I'm still not convinced that Dunn gets all the touches formerly reserved for Duckett. I simply feel that that pressure is gone and Dunn will see a few more touches per game until he wears down or the team struggles. He averaged less than 20 touches/game last year while Duckett averaged about 8. I'm not sure how good a goalline runner he is since he's never been given the opportunity in the past. He had a "carreer year" last year (ranking #12), but only scored 3 rushing TD's.

 

[David Yudkin]

Just a quick note - under the "Crew Discusses 3-Way Trade" video on NFL.com Eisen states that Mora has declared that Dunn WILL BE HIS GOALLINE RB. IMO That means at least 3-5 more carries per game and goalline duties.Upside - He is a full time starter - period.Downside: has he EVER taken that many touches (don't forget he is a top 3 targeted receiver on that team also).My analysis is that he is likely going to get hurt before the end of the season (not many people can handle the ball 350+ times in the NFL and not get hurt), but IMO he probably puts good numbers (1400 Total yards sounds good) before he goes down. Mid to late 2nd round. Closer to the front of the 2nd rounds in PPR leagues.

I'm not sure the context of what Eisen was discussing this. I have not seen anyone from the team say that Dunn will be the guy at the goal line. Not saying that he won't be, only that I have not seen Dunn being tabbed as the guy by any place other then Eisen.

 

[Reagan]

As I mentioned in some of the other threads, I'm as big a Dunn fan as anyone, but why is it a given that anything in the Duckett column will get transferred to the Dunn column?I still think last year was a career year for Dunn and those thinking he will duplicate that success again will be disappointed. Last year was the first and only time he cracked the Top 12, and at his age and his stature I am not projecting him to start taking on an extra 100 touches a year. He may but up somewher between his 2004 and 2005 numbers but I would be leary of burning a late first or early second round pick on him.

There are two large reasons Dunn was getting drafted so low.1. Duckett could be expected to further cut into Dunn's playing time.2. Dunn is over 30 and his skills may sharply diminish soon.Trading away Duckett puts all of those fears to rest. Duckett cannot take Dunn's job. If there was any concern over Dunn's abilities privately bugging the Falcons' staff, they surely don't trade away Duckett. I don't know if you could be more confident in Dunn's abilities for 2006 at this point.The bottom line is the Falcons seem extremely confident in Dunn. So I am too.I think he's upper second round at this point.

I'm thinking 3rd round in a 10 team league......he could creep into the late second, but I would doubt it. I pick at #23 in the 3rd....something to consider. In the projections I have (PPR league with standard scoring), he was just a hair below FWP and Reuben Droughsn. Now that Duckett is gone, that could change. I can see him getting another 50-75 yards and 2 TDs out of Duckett's share, which would give him another 15-20 pts in our league, putting him at or above FWP and Droughns.

 

[Z-Dog]

I realize that he's 31 which usually isn't a good sign. He also has Vick to vulture TD's. He also has a tough division with Tampa and Carolina.

However:

* He's never had a 300 carry season.

* He's coming off a year averaging > 5 ypc

* The Falcons have always been a run-1st team

* He appears to be in line for a lot more goalline work

* He appears to be 100% healthy (for now)

Compared with other late 1st rounders like Jordan, Williams, Brown, etal, Dunn may not be a bad choice here IMHO. He seems to be more primed for a big season than the likes of Westbrook, Davis, Mcgahee, or either Jones. If you up his TD's to even 6-7, while giving him 300 carries, he could easily fall in the RB8-RB10 range.

What do you guys think?

Huh?Players who were =>30 last year who were top 10 in my league (.5 PPR + 1 pt per 20 yards rush + 3 bonus per 100 rushing game)

Rank / Player Year Born

#1 / Tiki / June 1975

#4 / CMART / May 1973

#7 CDillon / Oct 1974

#10 / Priest / Oct 1973

So, 4 out of top 10 RB isn't a good sign because they were deemed too old?

What year are you talking about? '04? Because last year, only Tiki was top-10. And in '04 only Priest and Martin were 30.

 

[Gopher State]

I would not draft Dunn before the 4th round. To many other players RB/WR with greater value.

 

[Hairy Snowman]

Just a quick note - under the "Crew Discusses 3-Way Trade" video on NFL.com Eisen states that Mora has declared that Dunn WILL BE HIS GOALLINE RB. IMO That means at least 3-5 more carries per game and goalline duties.Upside - He is a full time starter - period.Downside: has he EVER taken that many touches (don't forget he is a top 3 targeted receiver on that team also).My analysis is that he is likely going to get hurt before the end of the season (not many people can handle the ball 350+ times in the NFL and not get hurt), but IMO he probably puts good numbers (1400 Total yards sounds good) before he goes down. Mid to late 2nd round. Closer to the front of the 2nd rounds in PPR leagues.

I'm not sure the context of what Eisen was discussing this. I have not seen anyone from the team say that Dunn will be the guy at the goal line. Not saying that he won't be, only that I have not seen Dunn being tabbed as the guy by any place other then Eisen.

It was in this context exactly. How he was to be used differently with the trade complete. Go to www.nfl.com and watch the video discussing the 3-way trade. It is towards the end of the clip, but Eisen CLEARLY states that Mora has said the Dunn will take the Goalline RB duties.

 

[broncofan13000]

I would not draft Dunn before the 4th round. To many other players RB/WR with greater value.

 

[SSOG]

I realize that he's 31 which usually isn't a good sign. He also has Vick to vulture TD's. He also has a tough division with Tampa and Carolina.

However:

* He's never had a 300 carry season.

* He's coming off a year averaging > 5 ypc

* The Falcons have always been a run-1st team

* He appears to be in line for a lot more goalline work

* He appears to be 100% healthy (for now)

Compared with other late 1st rounders like Jordan, Williams, Brown, etal, Dunn may not be a bad choice here IMHO. He seems to be more primed for a big season than the likes of Westbrook, Davis, Mcgahee, or either Jones. If you up his TD's to even 6-7, while giving him 300 carries, he could easily fall in the RB8-RB10 range.

What do you guys think?

Huh?Players who were =>30 last year who were top 10 in my league (.5 PPR + 1 pt per 20 yards rush + 3 bonus per 100 rushing game)

Rank / Player Year Born

#1 / Tiki / June 1975

#4 / CMART / May 1973

#7 CDillon / Oct 1974

#10 / Priest / Oct 1973

So, 4 out of top 10 RB isn't a good sign because they were deemed too old?

What year are you talking about? '04? Because last year, only Tiki was top-10. And in '04 only Priest and Martin were 30.

Mike Anderson down?

 

[RKMoney]

I realize that he's 31 which usually isn't a good sign. He also has Vick to vulture TD's. He also has a tough division with Tampa and Carolina.

However:

* He's never had a 300 carry season.

* He's coming off a year averaging > 5 ypc

* The Falcons have always been a run-1st team

* He appears to be in line for a lot more goalline work

* He appears to be 100% healthy (for now)

Compared with other late 1st rounders like Jordan, Williams, Brown, etal, Dunn may not be a bad choice here IMHO. He seems to be more primed for a big season than the likes of Westbrook, Davis, Mcgahee, or either Jones. If you up his TD's to even 6-7, while giving him 300 carries, he could easily fall in the RB8-RB10 range.

What do you guys think?

Huh?Players who were =>30 last year who were top 10 in my league (.5 PPR + 1 pt per 20 yards rush + 3 bonus per 100 rushing game)

Rank / Player Year Born

#1 / Tiki / June 1975

#4 / CMART / May 1973

#7 CDillon / Oct 1974

#10 / Priest / Oct 1973

So, 4 out of top 10 RB isn't a good sign because they were deemed too old?

What year are you talking about? '04? Because last year, only Tiki was top-10. And in '04 only Priest and Martin were 30.

Mike Anderson down?

Think last year there were 3 top 10 that were 30 or older. Yes, that was on 2004 and that was the ranking given the league specs I mentioned. The point is that you can't simple pick out some age in the early 30's and say it isn't a good sign. Why?

 

[Capella]

I would not draft Dunn before the 4th round. To many other players RB/WR with greater value.

 

[Shiver44]

He's old, gets nicked, and Norwood will receive a large share of touches.

 

[CravenM]

Screw statistics - you guys are missing the boat.

Warrick Dunn is a clone of Emmitt Smith whereby he's small, fast, smart and knows how not to take a hit.

He's good for 4 more years.

Ink him in for 1200 yards, 10 TDs - top 12 status.

Dynasty pick in the top 15.

I have spoken...

 

[Z-Dog]

I realize that he's 31 which usually isn't a good sign. He also has Vick to vulture TD's. He also has a tough division with Tampa and Carolina.

However:

* He's never had a 300 carry season.

* He's coming off a year averaging > 5 ypc

* The Falcons have always been a run-1st team

* He appears to be in line for a lot more goalline work

* He appears to be 100% healthy (for now)

Compared with other late 1st rounders like Jordan, Williams, Brown, etal, Dunn may not be a bad choice here IMHO. He seems to be more primed for a big season than the likes of Westbrook, Davis, Mcgahee, or either Jones. If you up his TD's to even 6-7, while giving him 300 carries, he could easily fall in the RB8-RB10 range.

What do you guys think?

Huh?Players who were =>30 last year who were top 10 in my league (.5 PPR + 1 pt per 20 yards rush + 3 bonus per 100 rushing game)

Rank / Player Year Born

#1 / Tiki / June 1975

#4 / CMART / May 1973

#7 CDillon / Oct 1974

#10 / Priest / Oct 1973

So, 4 out of top 10 RB isn't a good sign because they were deemed too old?

What year are you talking about? '04? Because last year, only Tiki was top-10. And in '04 only Priest and Martin were 30.

Mike Anderson down?

Think last year there were 3 top 10 that were 30 or older. Yes, that was on 2004 and that was the ranking given the league specs I mentioned. The point is that you can't simple pick out some age in the early 30's and say it isn't a good sign. Why?

RK - I was talking about the four that agent86 claimed, not the league as a whole last year.As for the next part, the fact that an RB is over 3o isn't evidence that he won't do well. However, as numerous studies as well as obeservations teach us, backs over 30 carry significantly more risk.

As always, you have to look at the specific player and the specific factors of his situation before just writing him off as old. And that's what I've done with Dunn. He's never had a bigger workload than in the last two years, and his performance spiked last year b/c of an unusually high ypc. To expect him not only to replicate but to improve on this performance seems unwarranted to me.

 

[Boston]

The question is can you win a league with Warrick Dunn being the biggest piece of your foundation. I like Dunn but I think you're setting yourself up for a mediocre year if he's your franchise player. Drafting him with a #1 is almost saying you will always use your first round pick on a RB regardless of what else is on the board.

I always hate posts like this, just because I disagree so strongly.50+% of first rounders bust. If you draft someone in the first round, and he doesn't bust, then you're already ahead of the curve, no matter whether your first rounder was Warrick Dunn or Antonio Gates.

So your solution is to draft in fear and select a guy who is a 3-5 round player? Obviously you're not going to to win your league solely based on your first round pick but I don't see how it helps you to not attempt to get a stud with this pick because this will be the pick with the most talent to select from. Using your theory you should probably take Tom Brady or Hines Ward with a #1 because because I'm pretty confident that while they may not blow up they won't bust and you'll have a safe #1 selection to build your team around.

 

[Glatty]

One point I think people are missing here. I'm seeing two main arguements on this board why he won't be able to repeat or improve his numbers from last year.

1) He's too old

2) He's never had the "big" workload of 325+ touches

To me, 2 cancels out 1. The reason Tiki is so good so late in his career is that he was lightly used early in his career. Seems to be a similar situation here.

he had 280 carries last year. Duckett's gone. maybe he gets 3 more carries a game, 1 of those being a goalline carry. Over 16 games that gives him 328 carries. At his career avg of 4.2ypc, that's 1,378 yards. And let's say he has a low 20% conversion ration for those goal line carries. That's another 3.2 TDs. His career avg of, when he's had more than 200 carries in a year, is 6.65 TDs. So 6.65+3.2=9.85. But let's round down to be conservative and give him 9 TDs.

So, in my book, I think he'll easily be able to carry the "load" of another 3 carries per game, and I think his numbers will look something like 1,375 yards and 9 total TDs.

Even if you took another TD away he'd still be in my top10 based on these projections. And you can get him in the middle of the 3rd round? I ain't no English major, but I'm pretty sure that spells "value".

 

[David Yudkin]

It sounds so easy to allocate a RB 325 carries . . . but in practical reality it doesn't happen as frequently as people think. That's averaging 20 carries a game.

In 144 career regular and post-seson games, Dunn has had 20 or more carries in only 28 of them (19%).

I have no intimate knowledge of what the Falcons will do with Dunn this year, but I have a hard time concluding that Dunn will get 325 carries on the season. He may get a few more TD than usual, but remember his career high is 9 TD in a season.

 

[Broncoholic]

I grabbed Dunn in the 4th rd lastt ning in a 12 team draft...I'm happy with the pick.

 

[[icon]]

One point I think people are missing here. I'm seeing two main arguements on this board why he won't be able to repeat or improve his numbers from last year.1) He's too old2) He's never had the "big" workload of 325+ touchesTo me, 2 cancels out 1. The reason Tiki is so good so late in his career is that he was lightly used early in his career. Seems to be a similar situation here. he had 280 carries last year. Duckett's gone. maybe he gets 3 more carries a game, 1 of those being a goalline carry. Over 16 games that gives him 328 carries. At his career avg of 4.2ypc, that's 1,378 yards. And let's say he has a low 20% conversion ration for those goal line carries. That's another 3.2 TDs. His career avg of, when he's had more than 200 carries in a year, is 6.65 TDs. So 6.65+3.2=9.85. But let's round down to be conservative and give him 9 TDs.So, in my book, I think he'll easily be able to carry the "load" of another 3 carries per game, and I think his numbers will look something like 1,375 yards and 9 total TDs.Even if you took another TD away he'd still be in my top10 based on these projections. And you can get him in the middle of the 3rd round? I ain't no English major, but I'm pretty sure that spells "value".

What makes you think Duckett's carries will be going to Dunn?Signed,Jerious NorwoodAugust 18, 2006, 07:26Falcons :: RBRB Duckett To Start, Possible Showcase For Trade?Steve Wyche, Atlanta Journal-Constitution - [Full Article]RB T.J. Duckett will start and play at least the first quarter in Saturday's exhibition at Green Bay. Duckett remains a possible trade option. The Falcons intend to groom RB Jerious Norwood to replace Duckett, who is in the last year of his contract. August 17, 2006, 19:34Falcons :: RBVersatile RB Norwood Gives Falcons OptionsSteve Wyche, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution - [Full Article]Rookie RB Jerious Norwood impressed HC Jim Mora when he caught a screen pass and went 37 yards in last week's exhibition game. "When he makes plays like that, you're like, 'Ooooh, what can we do with him?' " Mora said. Norwood's playing time — at least the plan for now — will be based on in-game circumstances, with the Falcons trying to get him in open space within their normal running scheme, but also as a receiver. August 12, 2006, 09:31Falcons :: RBRB Norwood ElectrifiesSteve Wyche, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution - [Full Article]RB Jerious Norwood provided an unexpected boost in Atlanta's 26-23 preseason victory, raising many eyebrows. He had a game-breaking 37-yard run after catching a screen pass from QB Matt Schaub that moved the ball to the Patriots 27 and set up K Michael Koenen's 50-yard field goal.