Is it just me, or after the first three picks... (1 Viewer)

[Marvin88]

...which will be LJ, LT2 and SA, there are alot of ways to go and knowing the draft tendencies of your league could especially be beneficial this year ?

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Much like any other year, there is a lot of uncertainty after the certainties go off the board.

 

[Marvin88]

Much like any other year, there is a lot of uncertainty after the certainties go off the board.

I guess my point is, there seem to be a lot less certainties this year!

 

[David Yudkin]

Much like any other year, there is a lot of uncertainty after the certainties go off the board.

Did the league switch to robots? As long as there are injuries, there is no such thing as a sure thing. And teams with a Top 3 pick have more to lose than those with lower picks should they not work out.

 

[Marvin88]

Much like any other year, there is a lot of uncertainty after the certainties go off the board.

Did the league switch to robots? As long as there are injuries, there is no such thing as a sure thing. And teams with a Top 3 pick have more to lose than those with lower picks should they not work out.

Yeah, I have thought about that angle as well (having more to lose with a higher draft pick). But if you take the argument that "there are no sure things" to the n-th degree, then you are essentially saying that you may as well pick Justin Fargus as LJ with your first overall pick. Sure, there are no "certainities", but there are some players that are "more nearly certain" than other players. To me, There are three players that are "more nearly certain" than all the other players out there. So don't get hung up in the terminology. Unless you are thinking about drafting an injury prone player, you can't factor in the injury argument. You just can't "not" draft someone because they might get hurt because this is true for all players (and "more nearly certain" for the injury prone players).

 

[David Yudkin]

Much like any other year, there is a lot of uncertainty after the certainties go off the board.

Did the league switch to robots? As long as there are injuries, there is no such thing as a sure thing. And teams with a Top 3 pick have more to lose than those with lower picks should they not work out.

Yeah, I have thought about that angle as well (having more to lose with a higher draft pick). But if you take the argument that "there are no sure things" to the n-th degree, then you are essentially saying that you may as well pick Justin Fargus as LJ with your first overall pick. Sure, there are no "certainities", but there are some players that are "more nearly certain" than other players. To me, There are three players that are "more nearly certain" than all the other players out there. So don't get hung up in the terminology.

I know it looks like there are 3 uber studs and then the mere mortals, and while I tend to agree with you that they are a tier above the rest of the league on paper. But the top guys in recent seasons have had a fair amount of issues. Holmes, Faulk, AGreen, Williams, and James were Top 3 picks that did not meet expectations or got hurt, so even guys that look like they can't miss still can. But I certainly would rather have a Top 3 pick than not have a Top 3 pick.

 

[Marvin88]

Much like any other year, there is a lot of uncertainty after the certainties go off the board.

Did the league switch to robots? As long as there are injuries, there is no such thing as a sure thing. And teams with a Top 3 pick have more to lose than those with lower picks should they not work out.

Yeah, I have thought about that angle as well (having more to lose with a higher draft pick). But if you take the argument that "there are no sure things" to the n-th degree, then you are essentially saying that you may as well pick Justin Fargus as LJ with your first overall pick. Sure, there are no "certainities", but there are some players that are "more nearly certain" than other players. To me, There are three players that are "more nearly certain" than all the other players out there. So don't get hung up in the terminology.

I know it looks like there are 3 uber studs and then the mere mortals, and while I tend to agree with you that they are a tier above the rest of the league on paper. But the top guys in recent seasons have had a fair amount of issues. Holmes, Faulk, AGreen, Williams, and James were Top 3 picks that did not meet expectations or got hurt, so even guys that look like they can't miss still can. But I certainly would rather have a Top 3 pick than not have a Top 3 pick.

So, David, let me ask you this - where is your ideal draft spot this year (assume 12 team league)?PS - I think you are onto something with your Peyton Manning thread!

 

[David Yudkin]

Much like any other year, there is a lot of uncertainty after the certainties go off the board.

Did the league switch to robots? As long as there are injuries, there is no such thing as a sure thing. And teams with a Top 3 pick have more to lose than those with lower picks should they not work out.

Yeah, I have thought about that angle as well (having more to lose with a higher draft pick). But if you take the argument that "there are no sure things" to the n-th degree, then you are essentially saying that you may as well pick Justin Fargus as LJ with your first overall pick. Sure, there are no "certainities", but there are some players that are "more nearly certain" than other players. To me, There are three players that are "more nearly certain" than all the other players out there. So don't get hung up in the terminology.

I know it looks like there are 3 uber studs and then the mere mortals, and while I tend to agree with you that they are a tier above the rest of the league on paper. But the top guys in recent seasons have had a fair amount of issues. Holmes, Faulk, AGreen, Williams, and James were Top 3 picks that did not meet expectations or got hurt, so even guys that look like they can't miss still can. But I certainly would rather have a Top 3 pick than not have a Top 3 pick.

So, David, let me ask you this - where is your ideal draft spot this year (assume 12 team league)?PS - I think you are onto something with your Peyton Manning thread!

I don't like making tough decisions, so probably 3rd. You get whichever guy that is left of the big 3 and you get the better choice on the way back. There will also be a good option still available at 3.03. I suppose that any of the Top 3 are gold, really.At their current ADPs, you could end up with Alexander, Randy Moss, and Kevin Jones (or whatever late teens RB of your chosing). It's conecievable to get SA, Moss, and Manning which could be a lethal trio to start with if people let Manning fall (which has also happened frequently).

 

[Marvin88]

As an aside to the thread, I like the second combo better. It baffles me how people are getting high on KJ just because Martz is there. If SJax didn't put up stats like most thought he would with Martz, why should KJ?

But back to knowing you're league's tendencies - the one league I had in mind was where the overall #1 pick was P. Manning. I think that could leave a sour taste in most of the league's mouths this year and Manning could fall in the second, but not too far in the second (QB's get 6 pt.'s for a TD). If I can't get 1-3, I think I'd rather have 10-12 this year (in general).

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Much like any other year, there is a lot of uncertainty after the certainties go off the board.

I guess my point is, there seem to be a lot less certainties this year!

There are very few certainties most years IMO. It's easy to forget how uncertain people felt about Edge this time last year. Last year's certainties basically boiled down to three guys (LT, SA, Manning).It just shows how rare it is to be a consistent stud year after year like SA and LT.

 

[Marvin88]

Much like any other year, there is a lot of uncertainty after the certainties go off the board.

I guess my point is, there seem to be a lot less certainties this year!

There are very few certainties most years IMO. It's easy to forget how uncertain people felt about Edge this time last year. Last year's certainties basically boiled down to three guys (LT, SA, Manning).It just shows how rare it is to be a consistent stud year after year like SA and LT.

To elaborate upon my point another way - there are a lot less guys I like with my 1-2 picks this year, and a lot more guys I like with my 3-6 picks.

 

[-OZ-]

Much like any other year, there is a lot of uncertainty after the certainties go off the board.

I guess my point is, there seem to be a lot less certainties this year!

There are very few certainties most years IMO. It's easy to forget how uncertain people felt about Edge this time last year. Last year's certainties basically boiled down to three guys (LT, SA, Manning).It just shows how rare it is to be a consistent stud year after year like SA and LT.

To elaborate upon my point another way - there are a lot less guys I like with my 1-2 picks this year, and a lot more guys I like with my 3-6 picks.

trade down?

 

[Marvin88]

Much like any other year, there is a lot of uncertainty after the certainties go off the board.

I guess my point is, there seem to be a lot less certainties this year!

There are very few certainties most years IMO. It's easy to forget how uncertain people felt about Edge this time last year. Last year's certainties basically boiled down to three guys (LT, SA, Manning).It just shows how rare it is to be a consistent stud year after year like SA and LT.

To elaborate upon my point another way - there are a lot less guys I like with my 1-2 picks this year, and a lot more guys I like with my 3-6 picks.

trade down?

Wow, that never would have occurred to me!!!

 

[humans_being]

Seems like as good a year as any to pick at or near the bottom. But then that's just me....

 

[David Yudkin]

Seems like as good a year as any to pick at or near the bottom. But then that's just me....

I see people say this every year, and I have to ask . . . WHY? If the top picks perform to where they are supposed to (sometimes even better), then the team picking last in a 12-teamer could very easily be starting at a 100 point disadvantage compared to the early teams.The Alexanders, Johnsons, and Tomlinsons of the world will all be good for 300 or more points while the guys at the end of round one probably are in the 200 point range--whther it be at RB or WR.

If the league is filled with savy drafters, this should be a decent disadvantage.

 

[Marvin88]

Seems like as good a year as any to pick at or near the bottom. But then that's just me....

I see people say this every year, and I have to adk . . . WHY? If the top picks perform to where they are supposed to (sometimes even better), then the team picking last in a 12-teamer could very easily be starting at a 100 point disadvantage compared to the early teams.The Alexanders, Johnsons, and Tomlinsons of the world will all be good for 300 or more points while the guys at the end of round one probably are in the 200 point range--whther it be at RB or WR.

If the league is filled with savy drafters, this should be a decent disadvantage.

I think that's what might have been inherent in humans_being statement, that if you are not in the top three this year, then it would be good to be at 12. Just giving him the benefit of the doubt.

 

[hitmenssharpshooters]

I believe that it is better to be in the top 3 and take an LT2 as you know the capabilities of him LJ and Shaun. There are no certainties in the game but if I drafted LT2 and he was injured I would not regret making the choice as you can't predict injuries. You can predict he will have an awesome season. I do drop injury prone players down in my rankings like a Chris Brown.

 

[Marvin88]

I believe that it is better to be in the top 3 and take an LT2 as you know the capabilities of him LJ and Shaun. There are no certainties in the game but if I drafted LT2 and he was injured I would not regret making the choice as you can't predict injuries. You can predict he will have an awesome season. I do drop injury prone players down in my rankings like a Chris Brown.

:An aside: here to hitmenssharpshooters -(Sorry, but everyone knows the Honky Tonk Man was the greatest Intercontinental Champion of all time).

Top three would be great as David has stated.

 

[humans_being]

Seems like as good a year as any to pick at or near the bottom. But then that's just me....

I see people say this every year, and I have to adk . . . WHY? If the top picks perform to where they are supposed to (sometimes even better), then the team picking last in a 12-teamer could very easily be starting at a 100 point disadvantage compared to the early teams.The Alexanders, Johnsons, and Tomlinsons of the world will all be good for 300 or more points while the guys at the end of round one probably are in the 200 point range--whther it be at RB or WR.

If the league is filled with savy drafters, this should be a decent disadvantage.

I think that's what might have been inherent in humans_being statement, that if you are not in the top three this year, then it would be good to be at 12. Just giving him the benefit of the doubt.

Correct. I should have noted after the top three. After that i'd much rather pick at the bottom. To me it stood out like a sore thumb upon starting my redraft homework. Actually, if i didn't have one of the top two i'd drop. But then again, that's just me...

 

[nsundahl]

If any of your leagues are like the ones I'm in, then there are some owners who aren't "Footballguys". I tend to like the bottom 3 in any draft. I can't tell you how many times upper-tier players have fallen to me. You may start out with players not on an LT2 level, but in the second and fourth rounds you get exceptional value. Keep in mind, if you use VBD, then you'll make up the point difference in no time.

 

[Rounders]

If any of your leagues are like the ones I'm in, then there are some owners who aren't "Footballguys". I tend to like the bottom 3 in any draft. I can't tell you how many times upper-tier players have fallen to me. You may start out with players not on an LT2 level, but in the second and fourth rounds you get exceptional value. Keep in mind, if you use VBD, then you'll make up the point difference in no time.

Are you in my league?

 

[nsundahl]

Most likely!

 

[hitmenssharpshooters]

I believe that it is better to be in the top 3 and take an LT2 as you know the capabilities of him LJ and Shaun. There are no certainties in the game but if I drafted LT2 and he was injured I would not regret making the choice as you can't predict injuries. You can predict he will have an awesome season. I do drop injury prone players down in my rankings like a Chris Brown.

:An aside: here to hitmenssharpshooters -(Sorry, but everyone knows the Honky Tonk Man was the greatest Intercontinental Champion of all time).

Top three would be great as David has stated.

He is up there Bret held it twice to Honky Tonk's 1.

Rocky Maivia has to be near the top.

Back to the topic, you also don't have to worry with the top 3 of a RBBC