Is it time to abaondon RB-focused strategy? (1 Viewer)

[higgins]

Basing solely on the short shelf life of rbs. The value lies in the stud wr. That's where I prefer my core to be at in Dynasty. I think it's a safer approach.

This only makes RBs more important, especially younger ones. I don't see any argument suggestig otherwise. Those advocating the WR early aproach, are ignoring the fact that WRs/QBs that you draft in round 3,4,5 last just as long as the ones in rounds 1 and 2.

Taking Sidney Rice in the 4th, Colston in the 5th, and Schaub in the 6th will give you consistant productions for years as well.

It is about value over replacement. The difference between a RB in the 1st round and 4th round is MUCH bigger than the difference between a WR/QB in the 1st round and 4th.

I understand the rationale of securing a stud rb-it's a supply/demand thing

If you are going to quote me, include the whole post.

See above, where I stated I understand the rationale behind supply demand.

Enjoy drafting those rbs early, that have an average NFL lifespan of 3-4 years. In Dynasty, I prefer to build around stud WRs that have a much longer NFL career.

I agree with this logic 100%.

 

[creeps1313]

Im actually thinking about going back to the RB/RB in the first two rounds(redraft). RB/WR(top 6 pick) or WR/RB(bottom 6 pick) has worked out well for me the last few years but with this new pass happy league, it seems like WRs are coming out of the wood works every year. Brandon Lloyd and Stevie Johnson are just two of the perfect examples already used in the thread. Both guys were waiver pick ups in all four of my money leagues that were 12 man teams....so Im basing my opinion on that.

Of course it depends on draft position, but I do have the second pick(redraft) this year and unless someone falls...which they wont nowadays...Im not reaching for a WR. Of course its still way to early, but it is something I going to consider once the time comes.

With regard to dynasty...WRs are the premium...you cant have enough WRs!

 

[BuckeyeChaos]

I think the easy answer is that there is no easy answer. You still need to put your ranking sheets together and draft based on that. An easy formula of RB/RB or RB/WR or WR/RB is bs anyway. People today are too well informed and there is so much detailed free analysis that my sister who knows nothing about football or fantasy football could draft a decent team.

Of course the days of TD or Ahman Green or FAulk single handedly carrying you to the promised land is over but you still cannot ignore the RB spot.

 

[Dr. Awesome]

I don't know why everyone is arguing as though there is only one right answer. There are lots of ways to win - the only common theme is you need to hit on more picks than you miss, and your players need to stay mostly healthy.

 

[CompetitiveEdgeFootball]

I do several hundred mock drafts before every FF season. How i draft is based on several factors. Scarcity at the position, scoring system, composition of the other teams drafting, and value.

You have to consistently draft players that perform or out perform their draft position. I almost always draft the best player available in my slot, unless there are several that project to have nearly identical stat lines... In which case I know i can probably get a similar player next round.

There are just a few spots every year that I think its correct to take a top 3 QB early... Late in the 1st round i prefer an elite QB to any RB other than Arian, AP JC, CJ. I will take andre Johnson before a QB, not Calvin or roddy.

I've been going RB WR RB a lot in my recent mocks... As there is a nice tier of WRs you can get in the 5th and 6th round with huge upside. dez Bryant, mike Williams tb, Kenny britt... All could put up borderline WR1 numbers. Sidney rice is a high upside mid round WR pick. So I try and still get 2 RBs and a top 4 WR in the first 3 rounds... Worst case i go rodgers/manning/brees with a low end RB 1 and a top 4 WR. Guys you can get in the 4th and 5th rounds like forte and jstew make it a bit easier to talk yourself into an early QB pick, but as I said... I'd never go QB in the top 5 picks.

If a team has gone WR WR at the turn, i often adjust and take the best RBs because i know hes not likely to go WR again and he will be coveting a RB1. Same works with RB RB guy.

I draft on fantasyfootballcalculator.com... My team name is always "draftman" and I'm sure I've seen some of you there.

See you in the mocks.

 

[ookook]

I totally agree that in dynasty league start-ups the value of top young WRs and QBs go way up. The shelf-life argument increases their long-term usefulness.

In redraft it is a different story. There I see continued success at stud RB theory.

 

[plyka]

Strong RBs or not?

Well, this year in my 2 main money leagues combined, i picked 3 WRs and 1 RB with my first 2 picks (i had the 12th/13th pick in both leagues, both 12-team leagues). In the one that is a non-keeper, non-ppr, i went with Larry Fitzgerald + Deangelo Williams (what a disaster of a first 2 picks, lol) in the dynasty, which was a keeper startup this year, i went with Fitsgerald + Calvin Johnson. In this keeper league, we keep 6 for next year at no cost, i won the championship. It was PPR. I had a great team, and i loved picking 2 WRs with the first 2 picks. Calvin is now the best keeper WR and one of the top keepers in general and he still has a good 5-7 years of top quality production left barring injury.

In my opinion, it is so much easier for me to find RBs that are top quality off of the waiver wire. And that's what really turned my teams into top quality teams, the WW. I picked up Hillis, Blount, Torain, all for both teams. I just believe that there are a lot more RBs i can find off of the WW than great WRs, but maybe i'm just better at scouting RB talent than I am scouting WR talen. Lloyd after all was available off the WW as well and i missed him.

In the end, I think either way you go doesn't really matter. What matters is that you get the best player you can get. Setting up restrictions like "i am going to go RB heavy" or "i am going to go WR heavy" will create a major disadvantage for you. You must select the BPA. Then, it's all about the FA/WW list. Whoever is the best at picking up free talent off the FA/WW is the team that will win. I picked up Vick as my QB on my championship team, and that was obviously the biggest factor of all.

 

[texasbirdfan]

I totally agree that in dynasty league start-ups the value of top young WRs and QBs go way up. The shelf-life argument increases their long-term usefulness.

In redraft it is a different story. There I see continued success at stud RB theory.

..and that brings us full circle back to the original premise: that RBBC has robbed the pool of "stud" backs to a scarcity and because of that rather than keep chasing running backs- go WR

 

[griff321]

Quick request to posters; don't attack another's strategy. Many people have success doing what they do. There is no silver bullet. So please tone down the 'you're wrong' postings. It should be 'I don't agree' or 'I have not had success with that'...which is fine.

IMO anyone set to any strict strategy is wrong. Anyone that adapts the current flavor of the week strategy without adhering to what his leaguemates do is EV-. A Silver Bullet does exist and it has been proven over and over to be profitable. Ladyfingers:You raised tens on lousy three-flush!?

The Man:Gets down to what it's all about, isn't it? Making the wrong move at the right time

 

[ffguru56]

I, for the most part, draft the best available player when choosing among the top players in the draft, regardless of my team need.

 

[Fantasy Strategist]

It depends so much on so many things. But generally speaking if you are "chasing" the entire draft you are going to end up at the bottom of the rankings. You can't blindly go against the grain either. I usually just take the best player at the position that seperates me from the crowd...save the kicker/st-d...every year there are guys from every position who you could have got in the mid to late rounds...you just have to hit on one or two if you take the best guy available...some years you hit on McFadden or Foster or Bowe or Lloyd, etc...sometimes you don't. If you at least have a core of studs you are in the running...regardless of position.

 

[Instinctive]

RBs get hurt more than receivers, especially as they add more and more defenseless WR rules.

In dynasty, it makes incredibly more sense to go WR and QB early. When I do a dynasty startup, I want two elite WRs and an elite QB out of the first three rounds. Hopefully a top TE round 4. All of this is flexible, of course, because if the rest of the league takes WRs the first 8 picks, of course I grab Charles.

My goal in dynasty is to have the best QB and WR corp, but still suck for a year. Then I use that whole year of WW for a decent RB, and the top pick for the best rookie RB. It's worked for me, historically, although it sometimes takes until year 3 and is harder to do when taking over a bad team instead of a startup.

 

[FUBAR]

Outside of a top 4 pick, I draft what my leaguemates don't. I try to swim upstream if it makes sense at all.

That's pretty much what it boils down to isn't it? Take value where you can. But you probably want to value positions correctly to begin with. I think our WSL4 first 2 rounds is about what it should be:1.01 Getinthemix - Adrian Peterson MIN RB 1

1.02 Uruk Hai - Ray Rice BAL RB 2

1.03 Atomic Punk - Chris Johnson TEN RB 3

1.04 Crippler - Andre Johnson HOU WR 1

1.05 Old Milwaukee - Jamal Charles KC RB 4

1.06 BassNBrew - Arian Foster HOU RB 5

1.07 Meno Brown - Darren McFadden OAK RB 6

1.08 Kruppe - Mike Vick PHI QB 1

1.09 FUBAR - LeSean McCoy PHI RB 7

1.10 Yellow Line is Unofficial - Maurice Jones-Drew JAX RB 8

1.11 Stinkin Ref - Calvin Johnson DET WR 2

1.12 krsone21 - Rashard Mendenhall PIT RB 9

1.13 Toads - Aaron Rodgers GB QB 2

1.14 HellToupee - Jason Witten DAL TE 1

1.15 RC94 - Antonio Gates SDC TE 2

1.16 Gamma1210 - Roddy White ATL WR 3



2.01 Gamma1210 - Frank Gore SF RB 10

2.02 RC94 - Steven Jackson STL RB 11

2.03 HellToupee - Hakeem Nicks NYG WR 4

2.04 Toads - Dallas Clark IND TE 3

2.05 krsone21 - Greg Jennings GB WR 5

2.06 Stinkin Ref - Reggie Wayne IND WR 6

2.07 Yellow Line is Unofficial - Peyton Hillis CLE RB 12

2.08 FUBAR - Larry Fitzgerald ARI WR 7

2.09 Kruppe - Jermichael Finley GB TE 4

2.10 MenoBrown - Phillip Rivers SDC QB 3

2.11 BassNBrew - Peyton Manning IND QB 4

2.12 Old Milwaukee - Tom Brady NE QB 5

2.13 Crippler - Drew Brees NO QB 6

2.14 Atomic Punk (4 hour timer) - Matt Forte CHI RB 13

2.15 Uruk Hai - Michael Turner ATL RB 14

2.16 Getinthemix (4 hour timer) - Miles Austin DAL WR 8



14 RBs, 8 WRs, 6 QBs, and 4 TEs.

5 guys didn't take a RB in either round, 3 guys doubled up, 8 of us took one. Different strategies obviously, showing RB/RB is almost dead. Higher TE and QB scoring here than in many leagues changes things slightly.

 

[griff321]

Outside of a top 4 pick, I draft what my leaguemates don't. I try to swim upstream if it makes sense at all.

That's pretty much what it boils down to isn't it? Take value where you can. But you probably want to value positions correctly to begin with. I think our WSL4 first 2 rounds is about what it should be:1.01 Getinthemix - Adrian Peterson MIN RB 1

1.02 Uruk Hai - Ray Rice BAL RB 2

1.03 Atomic Punk - Chris Johnson TEN RB 3

1.04 Crippler - Andre Johnson HOU WR 1

1.05 Old Milwaukee - Jamal Charles KC RB 4

1.06 BassNBrew - Arian Foster HOU RB 5

1.07 Meno Brown - Darren McFadden OAK RB 6

1.08 Kruppe - Mike Vick PHI QB 1

1.09 FUBAR - LeSean McCoy PHI RB 7

1.10 Yellow Line is Unofficial - Maurice Jones-Drew JAX RB 8

1.11 Stinkin Ref - Calvin Johnson DET WR 2

1.12 krsone21 - Rashard Mendenhall PIT RB 9

1.13 Toads - Aaron Rodgers GB QB 2

1.14 HellToupee - Jason Witten DAL TE 1

1.15 RC94 - Antonio Gates SDC TE 2

1.16 Gamma1210 - Roddy White ATL WR 3



2.01 Gamma1210 - Frank Gore SF RB 10

2.02 RC94 - Steven Jackson STL RB 11

2.03 HellToupee - Hakeem Nicks NYG WR 4

2.04 Toads - Dallas Clark IND TE 3

2.05 krsone21 - Greg Jennings GB WR 5

2.06 Stinkin Ref - Reggie Wayne IND WR 6

2.07 Yellow Line is Unofficial - Peyton Hillis CLE RB 12

2.08 FUBAR - Larry Fitzgerald ARI WR 7

2.09 Kruppe - Jermichael Finley GB TE 4

2.10 MenoBrown - Phillip Rivers SDC QB 3

2.11 BassNBrew - Peyton Manning IND QB 4

2.12 Old Milwaukee - Tom Brady NE QB 5

2.13 Crippler - Drew Brees NO QB 6

2.14 Atomic Punk (4 hour timer) - Matt Forte CHI RB 13

2.15 Uruk Hai - Michael Turner ATL RB 14

2.16 Getinthemix (4 hour timer) - Miles Austin DAL WR 8



14 RBs, 8 WRs, 6 QBs, and 4 TEs.

5 guys didn't take a RB in either round, 3 guys doubled up, 8 of us took one. Different strategies obviously, showing RB/RB is almost dead. Higher TE and QB scoring here than in many leagues changes things slightly.

any chance you could post a link to the rest of the draft?

 

[Instinctive]

Another thing we overlook is that Foster, McFadden, Hillis weren't the only mid-late round guys that took you to the promised land. WR-WR-WR-QB-TE followed by picks like Bradshaw, Forsett, BJGE, Marshawn Lynch, Michael Bush, Thomas Jones, Fred Jackson, etc........

Not to mention WW adds like Tolbert, Woodhead ---> all of those were available late. And if you hit on, say AJ in the first, missed your 2nd with Moss, and took Roddy in the 3rd, or even took Roddy in the 2nd...as long as your QB didn't bust you were fine.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the only legitimate post-6th round contributors at WR were Britt, MW (either), Lloyd, and Steve Johnson, no? Even Santana Moss had a round 5 ADP, iirc.

 

[FUBAR]

any chance you could post a link to the rest of the draft?

I could, but you'd be better off journeying to the mocks draft forum.

 

[eaglesfan7]

any chance you could post a link to the rest of the draft?

I could, but you'd be better off journeying to the mocks draft forum.

Real drafts are always better.

 

[Tornacl]

I think that pretty much any well-thought strategy can be successful. I know that most savvy fantasy football owners' strategies vary widely depending on their initial draft position. But the important thing is to take who you believe is the best player with your next pick, and then by around the 6th round, you should have the core of your starting lineup. If you get one of the top picks (last year was 1 - 4), and you don't want to take one of the consensus picks (ADP, CJ, RR, MJD last year), then you're better off trading down, otherwise you've lost "value". If you go into your draft with a rigid plan, I think the fact that it is rigid will be more damaging than whatever the plan was.

I'm a firm believer that fantasy football success is earned in rounds 3 - 10. I don't think that you are going to kill yourself either way if you take a guy like Calvin Johnson or Aaron Rodgers instead of a guy like Frank Gore, but what do you do in the next few rounds? If you don't reach on players, and have a balanced team, then you should be in good shape.

If you can then spot some players in the later rounds that you think can greatly out perform their draft spot (guys like McFadden, Foster, Hillis, Steve Johnson, and Vick last year), it doesn't matter what strategy you used in the first two rounds, you'll be in great shape. Every year there are players like that at all positions, the most successful owners are the ones that are better at picking those guys out.

Bottom line is that people spend too much time analyzing rounds 1-2, instead they should be focusing on what they should do with their first 8 or 10 picks as a whole. It doesn't matter where you get your points from, just that you consistently get more points than the other guys in your league.

 

[FantasyTrader]

Show me the names and the post-season stats and I'll tell you if you should abandon it.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

any chance you could post a link to the rest of the draft?

I could, but you'd be better off journeying to the mocks draft forum.

Real drafts are always better.

believe me they are real, and kept track of.

 

[Tau837]

For dynasty:

I generally would take a RB in the first if I have a very early pick, how early depending on the year and the state of the elite RBs. Otherwise, I generally favor taking better players at the other positions while the typical early RB run occurs.

Of course, league size and rules matter tremendously. I play in a MOXFFL league, with 14 teams and 2-4 RBs starting every week. In that league it is more important to have multiple good RBs than in my other leagues.

I did a startup 10 team dynasty last year, no PPR, start 1-2 QBs, 1-3 RBs, 2-4 WRs (total of 7 across QB/RB/WR). I drafted from the 1.5 spot and only took 2 RBs in my first 8 picks, in the 5th and 6th rounds. I did not win the title in the first year, but had a very high number of injuries and still scored the most points in the league. IMO I easily have the best team right now (Rodgers, Romo, Freeman, Stewart, Deangelo, McFadden, M. Bush, P. Thomas, Grant, Calvin, Roddy, Nicks, and Finley, among others). I was fortunate to draft McFadden late and also picked up Hillis prior to the season and flipped him midseason. I also could have easily had Foster but waited a round too long. There are a lot of ways to build a contender, but I think this team will contend both short term and long term, and I doubt it would be as strong long term had I gone with RBs sooner. Granted, the format of this league probably de-emphasizes RBs a bit compared to most leagues... but the typical heavy early RB drafting still occurred.

 

[I was in the pool]

This was a fun thread. Ah, the memories.

 

[fightingillini]

The answer is that you should be PREPARED to abandon the strategy if the RB value isn't there in rounds 2-3.

I still believe drafting RB in the first is a wise move. IMO, there are maybe 11-12 RBs that you can count on getting lots of touches and are going to be consistent week in and week out. IMO you need one of those guys. Then I believe best available is the right move for the next 3-4 rounds, and then you start filling out the rest of your team. No reason to take a marginal RB in Round 2 (say RB 15-16, when there is a big dropoff at RB12) when you have a top 5 WR or a top 5 QB. I will take my chances later filling in that RB2 slot, perhaps playing RBBC with it. IMO, there is a pretty large tier after the first 12 or so RBs.

There are gems at almost every position, year after year, so you can win with pretty much any combination of players taken early.

 

[MoraccoMole]

The answer is that you should be PREPARED to abandon the strategy if the RB value isn't there in rounds 2-3.

I still believe drafting RB in the first is a wise move. IMO, there are maybe 11-12 RBs that you can count on getting lots of touches and are going to be consistent week in and week out. IMO you need one of those guys. Then I believe best available is the right move for the next 3-4 rounds, and then you start filling out the rest of your team. No reason to take a marginal RB in Round 2 (say RB 15-16, when there is a big dropoff at RB12) when you have a top 5 WR or a top 5 QB. I will take my chances later filling in that RB2 slot, perhaps playing RBBC with it. IMO, there is a pretty large tier after the first 12 or so RBs.

There are gems at almost every position, year after year, so you can win with pretty much any combination of players taken early.

I don't think that there are this many rbs that you can count on. Maybe five that are consistently getting meaningful touches. After that there are the handful of wrs and qbs that should finish up the first round.

 

[T with T]

I definitely think RBs are still key but I've learned that teams need at least 1 stud RB if they want to have longterm success. Teams can get by week to week with a 2nd RB or Bye Week fill-in but having 1 high scoring RB still has a definite advantage.I went cute and went WR(WR and TEs are combined)/QB heavy and wanted to get decent RB talent later. I ended up with Clinton Portis and Tim Hightower to start off the year and found myself quickly plummeting to a 7-7 record in part due to injuries and not having a RB talent that I could count on. It got to the point where I was relying on players like Jason Snelling and Chester Taylor for their receptions and GL touches.Abandoning the RB focused strategy isn't a bad concept but the execution has to be pretty close to perfect to accomplish it and pull it off successfully, I think. I think the best balance is making sure you get a Top 12-16 RB first and then taking risks by going for other positions. Other owners will likely have stuck with that RB mentality and scoop up most of the names quicker than expected so they may "leave" value on the table but the cost is that if you waited too long, you're stuck with mostly trash unless you get lucky on waivers/FA.

Yea that's pretty horrible Hightower and portis yuck

 

[fightingillini]

The answer is that you should be PREPARED to abandon the strategy if the RB value isn't there in rounds 2-3.

I still believe drafting RB in the first is a wise move. IMO, there are maybe 11-12 RBs that you can count on getting lots of touches and are going to be consistent week in and week out. IMO you need one of those guys. Then I believe best available is the right move for the next 3-4 rounds, and then you start filling out the rest of your team. No reason to take a marginal RB in Round 2 (say RB 15-16, when there is a big dropoff at RB12) when you have a top 5 WR or a top 5 QB. I will take my chances later filling in that RB2 slot, perhaps playing RBBC with it. IMO, there is a pretty large tier after the first 12 or so RBs.

There are gems at almost every position, year after year, so you can win with pretty much any combination of players taken early.

I don't think that there are this many rbs that you can count on. Maybe five that are consistently getting meaningful touches. After that there are the handful of wrs and qbs that should finish up the first round.

There's certainly more than five.ADP, Foster, CJ, Charles, Rice, Mendenhall, Gore, MJD, McCoy,Forte, S Jackson, and Turner would be my list of RBs that should touch the ball at least 275 times this year. I think that you can count on any of these guys as a lead back.

The key IMO is that you need to get one of these guys as your RB1, whether you take it in the 1st or the 2nd round. I would probably take a RB up to about pick 7, then I would look at AJ or Calvin or Roddy White.

 

[keisersose]

When I drafted Megatron at #2 in my dynasty league, the guy picking Marshawn Lynch at #3 openly mocked me to the league for passing on stud RB for a WR.2 league titles for me since then and the other guy hasn't even made the playoffs.As with any other draft strategy, it's all about finding bargains. Last year I did well in my redraft leagues by taking rodgers and roddy white in the 1st two rounds, then loading up on RBs in the middle rounds. Went for guys like Mcfadden, Pierre Thomas, Benson, and such. McFadden hit bigtime obviously. I didn't expect them all to hit, but figured get 3-4 RBS in rounds 4-9 and hope at least one performs like a 1st rounder. I also picked up Blount which was huge.

In dynasty leagues I have been focusing on building studs at WR and QB before worrying about finding studs at RB. Between the predictability of WR/QB and their longevity, it only makes sense.

I hear this argument all the time, but don't recall seing it work. Have fun drafting Rodgers, Calvin, Marshall, Finley and being stuck with CJ Spiller and Pierre Thomas. I'll take ADP and Frank Gore and be "stuck with" Matt Schaub, Marques Colston, and Sidney Rice.

I mean, how long have you been playing in dynasty leagues? I know its "all the rage" these days, but not many people I know have been playing long enough to see this rational plan play out. I think if you drafted Randy Moss in the first round after his 2001 season, you made a much better investment than everyone who took Priest Holmes (like 5 additional years of top 5 production).The bottom line is that less than half the top 10 RBs return to the top 10 each season and their peak productive age range is roughly 24-28. WRs are more predictable form season to season and their productive peak years cover a larger range (most don't decline until 32/33 - and look at what owens was doing the first half of this season).Not saying its a horrible idea to draft RBs early in startup dyansty drafts, but you have to be a very good trader to make it payoff. For my stud RBs I try to acquire them as young as possible (obviously) and trade them soon after they turn 26 yrs old. Once they hit age 27 most owners will begin mentally adjusting their value, justified or not. If you ride a RB until he is not longer productive, then you have to make up all of that lost value somehow - which puts you at a disadvantage against players who don't hold players until they "wear out".I just took over a horrible team that I have to begin rebuilding. I started with QB (bradford) and will begin working on WRs next. Running backs will get my attention dead last because their shelf life is so short. Whats the point of going after good RBs when they won't be good anymore by the time I get a stable or WRs and QBs going? Anyway, you get my point.Running backs are important - but their unpredictability lends itself to drafting a small stable of "sleepers" in the mid rounds and using your all important top picks on other positions.I admit that I used to dominate by drafing RBs in the first 4 rounds of redraft leagues, but when there are only 5 RBs in the NFL that touch the ball 300 times, you are just adding runners that aren't separating you from the guy who is starting Tolbert against you.If you play me next year you will be dealing with my first 4 picks that might look something like this: Calvin, Austin, Felix, Romo which I would be much more scared of than McFadden, J. Stewart, Maclin, Brady - because when it comes right down to it there's very little guarantees anyone can give me that McFadden or Foster will out produce Felix Jones (or similar). Thats just the nature of RBs from season to season.