Is Larry Johnson Going To Be a Top 5 RB For Many Years? (1 Viewer)

[Islander]

LJ's heavy usage by Herm is all well and good for this year - can't complain about current production. But cripes, LJ is on his way for a 450+ touches season. We all know RBs that are overused like this have a tendancy to break down the following year. Even if LJ does not break down and has another great year in 2007, I don't see Herm changing how he uses him. If LJ gets back to back 450+ touches seasons, I am worried that LJ's lifespan as a top shelf RB is going to be much less than other studs from the last 10 years or so.

I can understand the Chiefs relying heavily on the run while T Green was out. But now that he is back, part of me wants the Chiefs to throw more and reduce LJ's workload a bit, even if it means less production this year. I feel like they will run him to the ground. LJ has shown no signs of overuse so far this year (fortunately), but I am worried.

 

[The Jacket]

I will reserve worry until I see signs of needing to worry.

 

[SteelerMurf]

This is LJ's first year carrying a full load.

I wouldn't worry, he's young.

 

[B. Nugget]

This is LJ's first year carrying a full load. I wouldn't worry, he's young.

Do you have the same concerns about LT? He's been overused for a couple of years.

 

[The Jacket]

As far as LJ this year, it's only uphill from here.

You see the difference Brian Waters makes to the Chiefs offense. Give LJ a crease and, as he showed last night, you won't stop him for 10+ yards.

 

[Loopdog]

One thing that makes a LITTLE bit of a difference is that LT and LJ often run out of bounds if nothing is there, rather than taking the extra pounding. I noticed LJ did it at least 5 or 6 times last night, he took the ball outside, saw there was nothing there, and just ran it out of bounds and got ready for the next play. These guys are smart and they do everything they can to take care of themselves out there. It's a concern sure, but every RB declines because of the abuse, so just enjoy the ride while you can

 

[jamil]

One thing that makes a LITTLE bit of a difference is that LT and LJ often run out of bounds if nothing is there, rather than taking the extra pounding. I noticed LJ did it at least 5 or 6 times last night, he took the ball outside, saw there was nothing there, and just ran it out of bounds and got ready for the next play. These guys are smart and they do everything they can to take care of themselves out there. It's a concern sure, but every RB declines because of the abuse, so just enjoy the ride while you can

i do worry about LT's carries but one thing i noticed, i'm not sure if this is the same for LJ, is that LT rarely gets cleanly hit.

 

[The Jacket]

i do worry about LT's carries but one thing i noticed, i'm not sure if this is the same for LJ, is that LT rarely gets cleanly hit.

It's very much the same... reason being, LJ gives more hits than he takes.Also, of LJ's 34 carries last night, I'd estimate that at least 15 were plays where he ran out of bounds or was tackled by his shoe-strings from behind as a last gasp by the defender. People equte carries with punishment, but it's just not the case: on those plays, LJ burned the defense and didn't take incur any kind of pain.

 

[Despyzer]

i do worry about LT's carries but one thing i noticed, i'm not sure if this is the same for LJ, is that LT rarely gets cleanly hit.

It's very much the same... reason being, LJ gives more hits than he takes.Also, of LJ's 34 carries last night, I'd estimate that at least 15 were plays where he ran out of bounds or was tackled by his shoe-strings from behind as a last gasp by the defender. People equte carries with punishment, but it's just not the case: on those plays, LJ burned the defense and didn't take incur any kind of pain.

Huh? How is this the same? If he gives more hits than he takes (which hardly seems possible from the RB position) wouldn't that be creating more of that punsishment that you say he's avoiding? I don't get it.

 

[Islander]

Regarding the comparison LT to LJ... For one thing, LJ is younger than LT so all else being equal, LJ has more thread left on his tires than LT, but that has nothing to do with how LT and LJ are being used now. Second, LT is on his way to a fifth straight top 5 finish, so even if he breaks down in 2008 for example, any dynasty owner will have gotten his money's worth. For LJ however, this is only his second year as a top 5 RB.

As for LT, he was not used as much as LJ. I disagree with B. Nugget. LT has not been overused in the last two years. LT's career high was 451 touches in 2002. Other than that year, he was over 400 touches only once, which was 413 touches in 2003. He has gotten less than 400 touches in 2004 and 2005 (and his rookie year 2001). This year he's on pace for slightly above 400, something like 410 touches. He was used a little more than usual early in the season because Rivers was still green, but based on his last 7 games, his running rate is about 390 touches. I would not be surprised to see LT end up the year with a bit less than 400, just like 2004 and 2005, and I don't anticipate anything different next year, especially if M Turner stays on board.

I don't think it's totally by chance that LT is performing like he is in 2006. The Chargers were smart with him and took care of him. That's probably one of the reasons he's been top 5 for a while and has a good chance to stay on top for another 2-3 years.

But LJ is another story. I could understand why he was overused in the 2nd half of 2005 - it was ok since he was still fresh and he was not going to finish the year with a huge number of carries even if they used him like mad in the 2nd half of the year. But this year I think it's a bit too much.

 

[massraider]

Don't listen to him Herm! You got a big gun, you fire it, baby!

:ljowner:

 

[Islander]

Don't listen to him Herm! You got a big gun, you fire it, baby!

:ljowner:

I assume you mean :redraftljowner: ?

 

[massraider]

Don't listen to him Herm! You got a big gun, you fire it, baby!

:ljowner:

I assume you mean :redraftljowner: ?

No, two dynasty leagues. I am very concerned about his prospects after 2009. I've been scouting high school games for his replacement.

 

[The Jacket]

Huh? How is this the same?

For whatever reasons, neither takes a ton of hits. In essence they're very similar in that regard - that's all.

If he gives more hits than he takes (which hardly seems possible from the RB position)

You saw the game, no doubt... did you see Johnson take more hits than he gave out? Because I didn't. In fact, I barely saw him get tackled. Only tripped up or run out of bounds.

wouldn't that be creating more of that punsishment that you say he's avoiding? I don't get it.

It isn't all that painful for Johnson to give out hits. I'm not saying this; it comes from Johnson.Unless he's a cold-faced liar who's really hurting week-in and week-out, and will break down soon.

 

[The Jacket]

But LJ is another story. I could understand why he was overused in the 2nd half of 2005 - it was ok since he was still fresh and he was not going to finish the year with a huge number of carries even if they used him like mad in the 2nd half of the year. But this year I think it's a bit too much.

Edwards will adjust. He'll realize soon that Michael Bennett is every bit as good as he needs to be to come in and spell Johnson at more frequent intervals.Until the last few weeks, KC's backup running backs have just been horrible. Bennett was banged up and Dee Brown/Derrick Ross stink. But now Bennett is paying divends for the fourth-round pick KC traded for him. It's only a matter of time.

 

[Islander]

Uber-stud RBs generally join the league at more or less 22-23 years old and can stay on top until they are about 30 years old. So that's maybe 7-8 elite years. LT is going to get his 7-8 elite years unless he has a freak injury. He takes care of his physical health as well as anybody else and the Chargers use him well. Emmitt Smith was similar and he was an elite RB for about the same number of years.

LJ has the advantage of not being used too much in his first 2.5 years in the league, but the fact remains that he's the same age as LT, and if LT slows down at 30 years old, I can't see LJ slowing down at 32.5 years old. Even if you were not used much early in your NFL career, your body does not do as well when you are 30 years old than when you are 28 years old.

LJ will have about 1.5 elite years at the end of this season. But at this rate, no way we even get 6 elite years out of him, even if his o-line and supporting cast remain good.

I don't see the point of giving LJ a huge workload against weaker opponents and/or in blow out games, like the San Fran game where Herm gave LJ 34 touches in a 41-0 win.

I sure hope Jacket is right and that Herm will adjust.

 

[nygiants56]

LJ's heavy usage by Herm is all well and good for this year - can't complain about current production. But cripes, LJ is on his way for a 450+ touches season. We all know RBs that are overused like this have a tendancy to break down the following year. Even if LJ does not break down and has another great year in 2007, I don't see Herm changing how he uses him. If LJ gets back to back 450+ touches seasons, I am worried that LJ's lifespan as a top shelf RB is going to be much less than other studs from the last 10 years or so.

I can understand the Chiefs relying heavily on the run while T Green was out. But now that he is back, part of me wants the Chiefs to throw more and reduce LJ's workload a bit, even if it means less production this year. I feel like they will run him to the ground. LJ has shown no signs of overuse so far this year (fortunately), but I am worried.

simply put: A car is meant to be driven..you don't buy a 1967 Shelby GT-500 to sit it in your garage and tow it around to car shows..

no, you drive it to car shows..let the oil lubricate the seals, give the engine some exercise..take it out and show it off, let it do what it does best: tear up the road..

..I'd rather drive that Shelby into the ground, and be seen it in every day, than to drive another car and have a bumper sticker on it that reads "my other car is a 1967 Shelby GT-500'..

run LJ into the ground! thats what he's there for..the definition of a 'Workhorse RB'

 

[redman]

This is LJ's first year carrying a full load. I wouldn't worry, he's young.

People don't seem to realize that LJ turned 27 years old a few days ago. I was surprised to learn his age too, but he didn't come out of college as a 21 or 22-year old. By contrast, Portis who has been in the league a year longer is more than two years younger. I agree, he's relatively low mileage for his age, but he's approaching the big 3-0 faster than a lot of people realize.

 

[redman]

i do worry about LT's carries but one thing i noticed, i'm not sure if this is the same for LJ, is that LT rarely gets cleanly hit.

It's very much the same... reason being, LJ gives more hits than he takes.Also, of LJ's 34 carries last night, I'd estimate that at least 15 were plays where he ran out of bounds or was tackled by his shoe-strings from behind as a last gasp by the defender. People equte carries with punishment, but it's just not the case: on those plays, LJ burned the defense and didn't take incur any kind of pain.

That's what they said about Eddie George and Jamal Anderson. By contrast, LT is more of an Emmitt Smith type, although I don't believe he's quite as good at avoiding solid contact as Emmitt was. In terms of wear and tear on the body, though, I don't think there's much difference between "giving a hit" and "taking a hit".

 

[Islander]

LJ's heavy usage by Herm is all well and good for this year - can't complain about current production. But cripes, LJ is on his way for a 450+ touches season. We all know RBs that are overused like this have a tendancy to break down the following year. Even if LJ does not break down and has another great year in 2007, I don't see Herm changing how he uses him. If LJ gets back to back 450+ touches seasons, I am worried that LJ's lifespan as a top shelf RB is going to be much less than other studs from the last 10 years or so.

I can understand the Chiefs relying heavily on the run while T Green was out. But now that he is back, part of me wants the Chiefs to throw more and reduce LJ's workload a bit, even if it means less production this year. I feel like they will run him to the ground. LJ has shown no signs of overuse so far this year (fortunately), but I am worried.

simply put: A car is meant to be driven..you don't buy a 1967 Shelby GT-500 to sit it in your garage and tow it around to car shows..

no, you drive it to car shows..let the oil lubricate the seals, give the engine some exercise..take it out and show it off, let it do what it does best: tear up the road..

..I'd rather drive that Shelby into the ground, and be seen it in every day, than to drive another car and have a bumper sticker on it that reads "my other car is a 1967 Shelby GT-500'..

run LJ into the ground! thats what he's there for..the definition of a 'Workhorse RB'

That's one way to look at it. But as a dynasty owner, I prefer to have LT or Emmitt Smith doing well for 8 years than LJ doing awesome for 3-4 years.

 

[Despyzer]

Jacket, you're not making any sense. In two seperate posts you have said that LT and LJ are taking about the same amount of punishment and also stated that LJ goes out of his way to lay hits on defenders.

Either you think LJ is hiding a big letter "S" under his jersey or you've never actually played any football.

 

[The Jacket]

Jacket, you're not making any sense. In two seperate posts you have said that LT and LJ are taking about the same amount of punishment and also stated that LJ goes out of his way to lay hits on defenders.

What are you failing to understand?LJ trucking linebackers doesn't hurt him.Don't believe me; believe him and the coach. That's why he continues to get carry after carry, week in and week out.

 

[Islander]

That's what they said about Eddie George and Jamal Anderson. By contrast, LT is more of an Emmitt Smith type, although I don't believe he's quite as good at avoiding solid contact as Emmitt was. In terms of wear and tear on the body, though, I don't think there's much difference between "giving a hit" and "taking a hit".

That's right. If taking a hit is a '10' and going out of bounds is a '0' in terms of wear and tear on the body, then giving a hit is maybe about '8' or '9'.

 

[The Jacket]

LJ will have about 1.5 elite years at the end of this season. But at this rate, no way we even get 6 elite years out of him, even if his o-line and supporting cast remain good.

First of all, the "0.5 year" you're crediting him with can be simply counted as an elite (full) year in fantasy terms. He was a top-shelf fantasy back; that he did it in 9 starts isn't important.As far as 6 years goes, that's just pure speculation. It follows logic, but I'm going to wait and see before I start believing his career is over in X amount of years.

 

[Despyzer]

LJ trucking linebackers doesn't hurt him.

So which is it? Is he Superman or have you never played football? I played TE and LB, and there is virtually no difference taking a hit and delivering one, as far as pain and punishment to the body goes.

 

[The Jacket]

That's right. If taking a hit is a '10' and going out of bounds is a '0' in terms of wear and tear on the body, then giving a hit is maybe about '8' or '9'.

I disagree. Maybe you're reading the word "hit" as more than it is.When I see Johnson drive through the line of scrimmage, engage a linebacker and eventually get dragged down, I obviously class it as a "hit". Contact.But if receiving a hit is 10, there's no way that action of giving a "hit" is 8 or 9. It'd be more like a 4 or 5 in direct comparison - if that.

 

[The Jacket]

there is virtually no difference taking a hit and delivering one, as far as pain and punishment to the body goes.

Maybe at the high shool level. MAYBE.Taking a hit - and I mean an appreciable tackle to the mid/upper-body - is far worse than him dishing out a "hit" (whereby he runs through/over a linebacker of similar but rarely greater size).

 

[Despyzer]

That's right. If taking a hit is a '10' and going out of bounds is a '0' in terms of wear and tear on the body, then giving a hit is maybe about '8' or '9'.

I disagree. Maybe you're reading the word "hit" as more than it is.When I see Johnson drive through the line of scrimmage, engage a linebacker and eventually get dragged down, I obviously class it as a "hit". Contact.But if receiving a hit is 10, there's no way that action of giving a "hit" is 8 or 9. It'd be more like a 4 or 5 in direct comparison - if that.

Never mind answering my previous question. This one answers it.

 

[Islander]

LJ will have about 1.5 elite years at the end of this season. But at this rate, no way we even get 6 elite years out of him, even if his o-line and supporting cast remain good.

First of all, the "0.5 year" you're crediting him with can be simply counted as an elite (full) year in fantasy terms. He was a top-shelf fantasy back; that he did it in 9 starts isn't important.As far as 6 years goes, that's just pure speculation. It follows logic, but I'm going to wait and see before I start believing his career is over in X amount of years.

That's a good point, it should be considered 2 elite years so far, not 1.5.

 

[Otis]

I will reserve worry until I see signs of needing to worry.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Has a runningback ever had 400 carries in a year and continued to do well thereafter? Jamal anderson had 410 and was never the same again injuring himself multiple times. Eddie George had 403 carries and was never the same in subsequent years. LJ's on pace for 410 carries.

 

[Kevin Ashcraft]

This article has a lot of relevance

Yudkin On RBs In Season After 400+ Touches

 

[CalBear]

Regarding the comparison LT to LJ... For one thing, LJ is younger than LT so all else being equal, LJ has more thread left on his tires than LT, but that has nothing to do with how LT and LJ are being used now. Second, LT is on his way to a fifth straight top 5 finish, so even if he breaks down in 2008 for example, any dynasty owner will have gotten his money's worth. For LJ however, this is only his second year as a top 5 RB.

LJ is younger than LT by only 5 months.

 

[Islander]

Has a runningback ever had 400 carries in a year and continued to do well thereafter? Jamal anderson had 410 and was never the same again injuring himself multiple times. Eddie George had 403 carries and was never the same in subsequent years. LJ's on pace for 410 carries.

Dickerson got 404 in 1986. He got injured the next year, played 12 games for 1450 yds total yards and only 6 TDs. In 1988 he had an elite year but that was it. No more elite years after that. James Wilder got 407 carries in 1984. The next year was good (1600 total yards and 10 TDs), but never got more than 704 rushing yards after that - so he hit a wall. If I lower the selection criterion to 390 rushes instead of 400 rushes, it does not look good either:Ricky Williams 2003 had 392 rushes. We know what happened next Terrell Davis 392 rushes in 1998. Injured in 1999 and career pretty much over. Barry Foster 1992 = 390 rushes. Injuries in 1993 and 1994 and then done.Gerald Riggs 1985 = 397 rushes. Next season: 1450 total yards 9 TDs, never reached 1000 rushing yards after that. Those saying "nothing to worry about until I see something to worry about" might be focused too much on the present, and not enough on the future. LJ might do well for several years again, but he would be the first to do so, which is not comforting. Chances are we won't have much of a warning before when we see worrying signs.

 

[Islander]

Regarding the comparison LT to LJ... For one thing, LJ is younger than LT so all else being equal, LJ has more thread left on his tires than LT, but that has nothing to do with how LT and LJ are being used now. Second, LT is on his way to a fifth straight top 5 finish, so even if he breaks down in 2008 for example, any dynasty owner will have gotten his money's worth. For LJ however, this is only his second year as a top 5 RB.

LJ is younger than LT by only 5 months.

Yes, I corrected myself in post #16.

 

[CalBear]

This article has a lot of relevance

Yudkin On RBs In Season After 400+ Touches

I don't really like the conclusions of that article. If you look at any performance that far above the statistical mean, you will see regression in year N+1. I'm sure if you look at QB years with 600 passes or WR years with 100 receptions, you'll see similar dropoffs. That's not as much a function of wear and tear as it is a reflection of how unlikely it is to reach those levels on a regular basis.

 

[Kevin Ashcraft]

What I took from it is that there are back like Emmitt Smith who did it consistently with heavy workloads

 

[redman]

I will reserve worry until I see signs of needing to worry.

I agree that it's early, but simply taking this position abandons a sell-high posture. I don't like the contact he gets and I don't like the amount of carries that Herm is giving him. I'd keep him another two years and then try to trade him. Don't forget, BTW, that Trent Green is winding down his career and that o-line is not getting any younger. I'm also not sure how much longer they'll keep the Saunders offense in KC once Green leaves.

 

[redman]

What I took from it is that there are back like Emmitt Smith who did it consistently with heavy workloads

There was never a RB in NFL history who did a better job at avoiding direct contact from defenders while running between the tackles than Emmitt Smith. This was due to a combination of his size, his excellent vision, and his ability to subtly twist and turn and adjust his body away from blows by defenders. I'm a Redskins fan and there was nothing more frustrating for me circa the early to mid-90's than watching the Cowboys in the 4th quarter with a lead, and knowing that they were going to run Smith up the middle and watching him wriggle his way for 5, 6, 7 yards and go down without anyone getting a big hit on him. It was maddening. Any comparisons of Larry Johnson to Emmitt Smith seem ridiculous, aside from the obviously superficial comment that both are/were good RB's. Larry has (at least) 4 inches and 25 pounds on Emmitt, and he often initiates contact rather than avoiding it. I'm not bashing Larry - I have him on my redraft team and love the guy - but we have to be realistic here about how he runs. I expect LJ to have a career path like other similarly sized and used RB's did, such as Earl Campbell, Eddie George, Jamal Anderson, Stephen Davis, Gerald Riggs, etc. Almost to a man, those guys had around 4 good or even great years of heavy usage, and then started to break down physically. Something not talked about enough is that the RB's own size works against his longevity. Just by carrying more weight around on those hips, knees and ankles the body breaks down faster. Even if you're "wrong" about trading LJ away in a dynasty league a year or two from now, how many more dominant years do you really think he'll have beyond that?

 

[B. Nugget]

I will reserve worry until I see signs of needing to worry.

I agree that it's early, but simply taking this position abandons a sell-high posture. I don't like the contact he gets and I don't like the amount of carries that Herm is giving him. I'd keep him another two years and then try to trade him. Don't forget, BTW, that Trent Green is winding down his career and that o-line is not getting any younger. I'm also not sure how much longer they'll keep the Saunders offense in KC once Green leaves.

Well, first off you need to realize this isn't the Saunders offense, this is a ball-control running game that relies on the defense. Saunders' offense was wide open with vertical passing, something that almost doesn't exist with Herm.

 

[The Jacket]

Don't forget, BTW, that Trent Green is winding down his career and that o-line is not getting any younger.

Actually, the offensive line is getting younger. Appreciably. It'll get younger again next offseason when (great guy, wonderful career, but now overrated) Will Shields retires and is replaced by either a draft choice or one of the guys KC has in its farm system; and I'll take my chances with whoever that is, working under one of the better line coaches around.

 

[redman]

I will reserve worry until I see signs of needing to worry.

I agree that it's early, but simply taking this position abandons a sell-high posture. I don't like the contact he gets and I don't like the amount of carries that Herm is giving him. I'd keep him another two years and then try to trade him. Don't forget, BTW, that Trent Green is winding down his career and that o-line is not getting any younger. I'm also not sure how much longer they'll keep the Saunders offense in KC once Green leaves.

Well, first off you need to realize this isn't the Saunders offense, this is a ball-control running game that relies on the defense. Saunders' offense was wide open with vertical passing, something that almost doesn't exist with Herm.

I thought I'd read somewhere that Herm had kept the same system. Are you sure that that's not the case, but that the play-calling (as opposed to the system) has gotten more conservative? I acknowledge that I could certainly be mistaken on this as I don't follow the Chiefs closely and I'm going off of recollection of a single article.

 

[redman]

Don't forget, BTW, that Trent Green is winding down his career and that o-line is not getting any younger.

Actually, the offensive line is getting younger. Appreciably. It'll get younger again next offseason when (great guy, wonderful career, but now overrated) Will Shields retires and is replaced by either a draft choice or one of the guys KC has in its farm system; and I'll take my chances with whoever that is, working under one of the better line coaches around.

I'm not sure that you're understanding me, and Will Shields is a perfect example. I know Shields is retiring, but that's the problem isn't it? I'm not assuming that they'll play without a guard next year. Who in this "farm system" can be reasonably expected to play to Shields' level? I look at that line and I see Turley (31), Shields (35), Wiegmann (33), Waters (29), and Black (26). Without Shields next year they'll have two guys over 30 years of age, and they'll have lost their best lineman. If they plug in Welbourne (likely their next best lineman) he'll be 31 next year and the last time he started more than 13 games was 2001. Who else have they got? Chris Bober? He's 30 years old. Chris Terry? He's 31.

Forget about how good he is, the only young guy I see there is Black.

This isn't the Cleveland Browns line, but let's get serious about this.

 

[B. Nugget]

I will reserve worry until I see signs of needing to worry.

I agree that it's early, but simply taking this position abandons a sell-high posture. I don't like the contact he gets and I don't like the amount of carries that Herm is giving him. I'd keep him another two years and then try to trade him. Don't forget, BTW, that Trent Green is winding down his career and that o-line is not getting any younger. I'm also not sure how much longer they'll keep the Saunders offense in KC once Green leaves.

Well, first off you need to realize this isn't the Saunders offense, this is a ball-control running game that relies on the defense. Saunders' offense was wide open with vertical passing, something that almost doesn't exist with Herm.

I thought I'd read somewhere that Herm had kept the same system. Are you sure that that's not the case, but that the play-calling (as opposed to the system) has gotten more conservative? I acknowledge that I could certainly be mistaken on this as I don't follow the Chiefs closely and I'm going off of recollection of a single article.

They promoted the OL coach to Offensive Coordinator, so some of the same personnel is still there, but Herm is a very conservative coach and his offense is built on a strong running game. Last night, after the game on NFLN, they interviewed Trent Green and asked him how he was adjusting to the new offense AGAIN. It may not be completely different, there are some similarities, but the play calls are way, way more conservative and the vertical passing game is non-existant unless they fall behind.

 

[redman]

I agree that it's early, but simply taking this position abandons a sell-high posture.

I don't like the contact he gets and I don't like the amount of carries that Herm is giving him. I'd keep him another two years and then try to trade him. Don't forget, BTW, that Trent Green is winding down his career and that o-line is not getting any younger. I'm also not sure how much longer they'll keep the Saunders offense in KC once Green leaves.

Well, first off you need to realize this isn't the Saunders offense, this is a ball-control running game that relies on the defense. Saunders' offense was wide open with vertical passing, something that almost doesn't exist with Herm.

I thought I'd read somewhere that Herm had kept the same system. Are you sure that that's not the case, but that the play-calling (as opposed to the system) has gotten more conservative? I acknowledge that I could certainly be mistaken on this as I don't follow the Chiefs closely and I'm going off of recollection of a single article.

They promoted the OL coach to Offensive Coordinator, so some of the same personnel is still there, but Herm is a very conservative coach and his offense is built on a strong running game. Last night, after the game on NFLN, they interviewed Trent Green and asked him how he was adjusting to the new offense AGAIN. It may not be completely different, there are some similarities, but the play calls are way, way more conservative and the vertical passing game is non-existant unless they fall behind.

That's what I was remembering.

 

[The Jacket]

Without Shields next year they'll have two guys over 30 years of age, and they'll have lost their best lineman. If they plug in Welbourne (likely their next best lineman)

Brian Waters is far and away the best lineman on the Chiefs.

 

[stbugs]

What I took from it is that there are back like Emmitt Smith who did it consistently with heavy workloads

What I took from it was this blurb about 2005 top use backs:

Of particular interest would be the forthcoming seasons for Shaun Alexander (448), Tiki Barber (427), Edgerrin James (422), and Clinton Portis (408), all of whom were on the north side of the 400-touch line in 2005.

We already know what happened to SA and Portis. Sure some of that is bad luck, some losses in OL (Hutchinson - everyone in Arizona), but pretty undeniable that SA, Edge and Portis will be lucky to finish top 20 at the end of 2006. So 1 of 4 is still top 10, the others won't be top 20, when all 4 were top 6 last year. That is a pretty significant drop off.As you said, I would consider Tiki to be the most similar to Emmitt in terms of not taking hits and not surprising that he is still in the top 10 this year. Based on all the RBs mentioned in the article, I don't think I would put LJ in the same company as the more elusive guys like Emmitt and LT that seem to avoid injury quite well.

 

[msommer]

LJ trucking linebackers doesn't hurt him.

So which is it? Is he Superman or have you never played football? I played TE and LB, and there is virtually no difference taking a hit and delivering one, as far as pain and punishment to the body goes.

Basic physics - one of Newton's laws.

 

[BoltBacker]

i do worry about LT's carries but one thing i noticed, i'm not sure if this is the same for LJ, is that LT rarely gets cleanly hit.

It's very much the same... reason being, LJ gives more hits than he takes.Also, of LJ's 34 carries last night, I'd estimate that at least 15 were plays where he ran out of bounds or was tackled by his shoe-strings from behind as a last gasp by the defender. People equte carries with punishment, but it's just not the case: on those plays, LJ burned the defense and didn't take incur any kind of pain.

That's what they said about Eddie George and Jamal Anderson. By contrast, LT is more of an Emmitt Smith type, although I don't believe he's quite as good at avoiding solid contact as Emmitt was. In terms of wear and tear on the body, though, I don't think there's much difference between "giving a hit" and "taking a hit".

Eddie George was one of the two that came to mind with me as well. People were always saying that it didn't really matter how many carries he was getting because he was handing out the punishment, not receiving it. I think that same argument was used with Earl Cambell as well. He had three great seasons of over 1400/13 w/4.6+ypc and looked unstoppable. His career tailed off considerably after his third year in the league though. His first three years in the league: 5081/45. Next(last) five seasons in the league: 4326/29. Handing out punishment to LB's didn't work out too well for him.Even younger KC fans should remember Christian Okoye the Nigerian Nightmare. He handed out a lot of punishment for a short period of time.

 

[Kevin Ashcraft]

From our blogger.....

November 24, 2006, 14:50

Chiefs :: RB

RB L. Johnson's Carries Don't Worry HC Edwards

Doug Tucker, Associated Press - [Full Article]

With 34 carries in the Chiefs' victory over Denver, RB Larry Johnson raised his yardage total to 1,202 on 282 carries. That's an average of almost 26 carries a game, which projects over a season to about 410, which would tie the NFL record. But HC Herman Edwards is not concerned one bit. "I'm not going to wear him out," Edwards said Friday. "That's what good runners want. They want the ball. Larry made the statement earlier in the season he doesn't get warmed up until after about 25 carries. You ask for something, and you get it."

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?sectio...&id=2674487