Is Marshawn Lynch overrated? (1 Viewer)

[SugarNuts]

With 280 carries, I would hope he can run for 1100 yds. 3.9 ypc isn't the worst I've seen, but it's definitely not good enough to start raving about his 1100 yds.

Then I guess Ill leave you with this: Just dont draft him. Let someone else, and when he breaks out, just remember this. Again, Im not trying to convince anyone of anything. Im just stating what Ive noticed.

 

[gianmarco]

With 280 carries, I would hope he can run for 1100 yds. 3.9 ypc isn't the worst I've seen, but it's definitely not good enough to start raving about his 1100 yds.

Then I guess Ill leave you with this: Just dont draft him. Let someone else, and when he breaks out, just remember this. Again, Im not trying to convince anyone of anything. Im just stating what Ive noticed.

Great reply. So if someone doesn't agree with you, you just shut off and say "fine, don't get him". Fantastic contribution. I was pointing out how the end season #'s aren't as impressive when you look at them in context. I'm not saying the guy is chopped liver. I considered trying to acquire him. There are things that are worrisome and I thought merited discussion. I don't think many people realized things I pointed out and it seems some have stated just that. Still, the majority believe in him based on what they saw on the field and I think that's quite valid and why I also have hope for him. I just am holding out on the high expectations just yet after just 1 season. I've tried to show reasons for it. Enjoy Lynch.

 

[SugarNuts]

With 280 carries, I would hope he can run for 1100 yds. 3.9 ypc isn't the worst I've seen, but it's definitely not good enough to start raving about his 1100 yds.

Then I guess Ill leave you with this: Just dont draft him. Let someone else, and when he breaks out, just remember this. Again, Im not trying to convince anyone of anything. Im just stating what Ive noticed.

Great reply. So if someone doesn't agree with you, you just shut off and say "fine, don't get him". Fantastic contribution. I was pointing out how the end season #'s aren't as impressive when you look at them in context. I'm not saying the guy is chopped liver. I considered trying to acquire him. There are things that are worrisome and I thought merited discussion. I don't think many people realized things I pointed out and it seems some have stated just that. Still, the majority believe in him based on what they saw on the field and I think that's quite valid and why I also have hope for him. I just am holding out on the high expectations just yet after just 1 season. I've tried to show reasons for it. Enjoy Lynch.

What else do you want me to say? Ive already given my reasons for him being someone to aquire. They will draft a much needed WR this year, they have a very good OL, and a maturing QB. Also, they have a new OC. That actually might be the biggest change of all, and I dont know what OC wouldnt gash at the opportunity to have a young stud in the making RB to build an offense around. Shall I go on? You want me to copy/paste what I said earlier?

 

[az_prof]

As an Evan's owner I hope you are right about the Bills having a "maturing QB," but isn't that what Detroit fans said for years with Harrington? Houston with Carr? Baltimore with Boller? I would much rather have a QB who IS mature and who HAS produced rather than one that we HOPE is maturing and HOPE will produce. Honestly, I don't know how you can count this as a positive for Lynch until it actually happens. Same goes for the rookie WR you expect the Bills to draft. First, we don't know that it will happen yet, so hard to count that as a positive until it happnes. Second, what if they don't draft a good one? Third, rookie WRs rarely make that much of a difference.

 

[Buckna]

I will echo some of the other comments. A solid #2, but not much upside beyond that. Buffalo had a great run back in the 90's, but I have no faith in the current organization to build much of an offense around Lynch. Much like when McGahee and Henry were there, I think he'll continue to have a low ypc around 4.0, 1200~1400 total yds and 6~8 TD's.

You obviously dont watch Bills games. In the past 15 years or so (since their glory days of the ealry 90s), they havent had anything consistent. No constent OL, QB, RB, coaching... Nothing. Now, they have a HC that has a plan, and is starting to show more, they have an OL that is one of the better ones in the league, they have qhat appears to be a competant QB, and obviously they drafted ML early to be their starting RB for many years. The biggest problem with this team is the WR position. Evans is a stud, but no one else is half as good. They need to have a good draft this year, and one of their 1st 2 picks has to be WR. They need someone that can make teams respect the passing game, so that the OL can open up more and bigger holes. I think all these things happen this year, and Lynch improves on a pretty good rookie year. He will slightly improve this year, and I think this team takes HUGE strides next year. He might be expensive now, but in a dynasty, me thinks you better get him now before he becomes untradeable.

You obviously have a lot of high hopes for the Bills improvement going forward. Maybe they will achieve them and maybe they won't, all I really know is they have been the definition of metiocrity for the last 8 seasons and I don't see the catalysts for improvement that you do.

 

[SugarNuts]

As an Evan's owner I hope you are right about the Bills having a "maturing QB," but isn't that what Detroit fans said for years with Harrington? Houston with Carr? Baltimore with Boller? I would much rather have a QB who IS mature and who HAS produced rather than one that we HOPE is maturing and HOPE will produce. Honestly, I don't know how you can count this as a positive for Lynch until it actually happens. Same goes for the rookie WR you expect the Bills to draft. First, we don't know that it will happen yet, so hard to count that as a positive until it happnes. Second, what if they don't draft a good one? Third, rookie WRs rarely make that much of a difference.

*deep breath...*Edwards is a 2nd year QB who played better from a FOOTBALL standpoint, then Losman. He led the team to a few wins, and had the team in some close games. Given another year under his belt, he should get better, at least from a football standpoint. I wouldnt count on Edwards this year as a fantasy starter. All the guys you mentioned have been in the league for a lot longer than Edwards. They were given their chances, and they failed. Will Edwards? We'll see...They WILL draft a WR, and Id bet money it will be with one of the top 2 picks, most likely being their second pick. Wether they draft a good one or not, Im sure the WR they DO take will be better than what they have now. However, right now, they dont have much of a possesion type WR. They have speed guys, and slot guys. All this player that comes in needs to do is pull one man off of Evans so they cant triple team him. If that happens, it should improve the passing game, which will improve the running game. Another thing to keep in mind is the improvement on defense. If Stroud stays healthy, that should help with the defense, and the DEs outta get more pressure on opposing QBs. What does this do for the offense? It allows them to run the ball more to eat clock as opposed to having to throw on most downs which seemed to be a problem last year. They were simply playing too much catchup last year.

 

[CalBear]

As an Evan's owner I hope you are right about the Bills having a "maturing QB," but isn't that what Detroit fans said for years with Harrington? Houston with Carr? Baltimore with Boller?

Detroit with Harrington: Kevin Jones had 4.7 ypc (best of his career) and 6 TDs on 241 carries.Houston with Carr: Domanick Davis finished as high as #5 among RBs.Baltimore with Boller: Jamal Lewis ran for 2000 yards and 14 TDs.

 

[Young 8]

Jackson put up a lot of numbers when it didn't count,

This is a complete joke. Jackson got a significant number of carries in 2 games - weeks 13 and 14. In week 13, they played Washington, the #4 against the run, where he put up 16 for 82 for over 5 yards per carry. He added another 4 catches for 69 yards. He played the whole game in a game where they won 17-16. No garbage time and it all counted.

In week 14, he split time with Lynch and got 115 yards on 15 carries (Lynch, by the way, had 23 for 107) and played the whole game on all downs in all quarters. In fact, he got 80 of those yards in the 1st half, when it really counted (Lynch's was split 66/41).

Doesn't it bother anyone that Lynch was outplayed by Jackson, granted in limited time, with all the same deficiencies that plagued Lynch? It's not like Jackson was an experienced veteran.

LMAOno, it doesn't bother because Lynch was coming back from a bad high ankle sprain

in the last 3 games of the season Jackson barely touched the field...........

More strange and inaccurate comments. I'm not sure why you're laughing but if it's because you thought I was trying to make Jackson out to be some kind of stud, you completely missed my point. It was simply to show that Jackson, basically a rookie journeyman, performed better than Lynch in the same offense under conditions that mattered. It's not like Lynch had an ankle injury all year long, is it?

And, by the way, in the last 3 games, Jackson got 27 touches or 1/3 of his season touches. Not only did he touch the field but it appears he touched the football as well. During the same 3 games, Lynch had 64 touches. So basically, Jackson got about 30% of the RB touches. Looks more like RBBC than barely touching the field.

sure...i can't wait for the start of the next season

 

[Young 8]

after reading this thread, I have to admit Im a little less excited about Lynch, especially in redraft formats. OP made some pretty solid points

this thread is full of crapthe guy who started it must have Fred Jackson in a Dinasty

 

[switz]

With 280 carries, I would hope he can run for 1100 yds. 3.9 ypc isn't the worst I've seen, but it's definitely not good enough to start raving about his 1100 yds.

Then I guess Ill leave you with this: Just dont draft him. Let someone else, and when he breaks out, just remember this. Again, Im not trying to convince anyone of anything. Im just stating what Ive noticed.

Great reply. So if someone doesn't agree with you, you just shut off and say "fine, don't get him". Fantastic contribution. I was pointing out how the end season #'s aren't as impressive when you look at them in context. I'm not saying the guy is chopped liver. I considered trying to acquire him. There are things that are worrisome and I thought merited discussion. I don't think many people realized things I pointed out and it seems some have stated just that. Still, the majority believe in him based on what they saw on the field and I think that's quite valid and why I also have hope for him. I just am holding out on the high expectations just yet after just 1 season. I've tried to show reasons for it. Enjoy Lynch.

What else do you want me to say? Ive already given my reasons for him being someone to aquire. They will draft a much needed WR this year, they have a very good OL, and a maturing QB. Also, they have a new OC. That actually might be the biggest change of all, and I dont know what OC wouldnt gash at the opportunity to have a young stud in the making RB to build an offense around. Shall I go on? You want me to copy/paste what I said earlier?

I dunno... I thought SugarNuts explained pretty well why he is still a great prospect. I dunno, I guess I didn't get the tone of the reply being so aggressive.

 

[gianmarco]

Btw, been seeing Lynch easily going in the top 10 of startup drafts, and seems to have an ADP in the 5-7 range.

So, is it because you guys think he has a good shot to finish top 5-7 or that the other RB's have too much risk or is it age or is it a combination of these. Just curious to get some thoughts after the NFL draft.

 

[Buckeyedawgs]

I personally have a lot better feeling about Lynch then any other sophmore rookie in a long time not named Addia last year or AP this year. Ceiling is limited but your guareenteed production and somewhat consistancy. Something hard to find in backs period.

Bush, Caddalac, Arrington are some I called perfect from the start. (Always over rated) Drew was first rookie to surprise me in years. Lynch is rated about where he deserves for a struggling offense. He should improve some this year. But don't expect a lot.

I have him 9# on my sheet but I would have to think long and hard to draft him there.

I have Grant# 10 and think Grant's ceiling is much higher. Though more a risk.

I don't think Lynch is over rated or over hyped. He's just one of them dudes doesn;t flash $$$$ signs in my eyes just yet because of the offense he plays in. Which should improve this year though I havn't checked strength of schedule yet.

 

[gianmarco]

I personally have a lot better feeling about Lynch then any other sophmore rookie in a long time not named Addia last year or AP this year. Ceiling is limited but your guareenteed production and somewhat consistancy. Something hard to find in backs period. Bush, Caddalac, Arrington are some I called perfect from the start. (Always over rated) Drew was first rookie to surprise me in years. Lynch is rated about where he deserves for a struggling offense. He should improve some this year. But don't expect a lot. I have him 9# on my sheet but I would have to think long and hard to draft him there. I have Grant# 10 and think Grant's ceiling is much higher. Though more a risk. I don't think Lynch is over rated or over hyped. He's just one of them dudes doesn;t flash $$$$ signs in my eyes just yet because of the offense he plays in. Which should improve this year though I havn't checked strength of schedule yet.

Very good posting and echoes a lot how I feel about him and others in the past almost perfectly. As others pointed out earlier, I also think he has very little downside and should put up consistent numbers, but I would not feel comfortable with him as a #1 and as you said, he may be ranked #9 but would be hard to take there. My use of the word "overrated" isn't so much that I don't think he's good, but more that I think he's being valued too high and people are expecting a lot more from him this year than they are likely to get.

 

[noablimp]

I will echo some of the other comments. A solid #2, but not much upside beyond that. Buffalo had a great run back in the 90's, but I have no faith in the current organization to build much of an offense around Lynch. Much like when McGahee and Henry were there, I think he'll continue to have a low ypc around 4.0, 1200~1400 total yds and 6~8 TD's.

You obviously dont watch Bills games. In the past 15 years or so (since their glory days of the ealry 90s), they havent had anything consistent. No constent OL, QB, RB, coaching... Nothing. Now, they have a HC that has a plan, and is starting to show more, they have an OL that is one of the better ones in the league, they have qhat appears to be a competant QB, and obviously they drafted ML early to be their starting RB for many years. The biggest problem with this team is the WR position. Evans is a stud, but no one else is half as good. They need to have a good draft this year, and one of their 1st 2 picks has to be WR. They need someone that can make teams respect the passing game, so that the OL can open up more and bigger holes. I think all these things happen this year, and Lynch improves on a pretty good rookie year. He will slightly improve this year, and I think this team takes HUGE strides next year. He might be expensive now, but in a dynasty, me thinks you better get him now before he becomes untradeable.

I'm not even close to being convinced on this one. Having some continuity there this year at least is a step in the right direction. That line is going to have to play great though because this team isn't going anywhere if Edwards can't start throwing the ball deeper.

Oh Im not trying to convince anyone of anything. Im just stating what Ive observed. If Lynch can run for 1100 yards behind a line on a team that couldnt pass the ball for crap, I think that speaks for itself.

With 280 carries, I would hope he can run for 1100 yds. 3.9 ypc isn't the worst I've seen, but it's definitely not good enough to start raving about his 1100 yds.

This already discussed, better ypc then LT's rookie year and he didn't have a team....

 

[Kyzersosik]

Lynch has very good not great skills. But, he seems to make up most of that with tough running and a determined attitude. Buffalo will get better as Edwards improves and as already mentioned, Lynch has decent hands and is capable of catching 50+ passes. IMO 2008 looks like 280/1200 and 40-50 catches 400yds. and 10-12 scores. In a 14 teamer I`d be thrilled to have him as my #2 back but most likely gone gy pick 13 or 14 in most leagues. GO PATS

 

[gianmarco]

 

[MCguidance]

A lot of crow to be eaten here. However, I can't say that I would have been in your camp. I thought Lynch would be good to very good...or at least better than this, sheesh.

 

[gianmarco]

A lot of crow to be eaten here. However, I can't say that I would have been in your camp. I thought Lynch would be good to very good...or at least better than this, sheesh.

Little bit more here too: Grant vs. Lynch

 

[EBF]

He was overrated if you were expecting the next elite NFL starter, but he's a solid player. The OP was made before the 2008 season when he had 1000+ rushing yards at 4.1 YPC and 40+ catches. Bad numbers for a top 10 pick. Fine for a RB2.

This year has been the perfect storm of #### with the suspension, the coaching change, and the continued struggles of Buffalo's offense. I think we'll see Lynch bounce back and become a solid RB2 again, whether it's in Buffalo or elsewhere.

Might be a good time to buy, actually.

 

[gianmarco]

He was overrated if you were expecting the next elite NFL starter, but he's a solid player. The OP was made before the 2008 season when he had 1000+ rushing yards at 4.1 YPC and 40+ catches. Bad numbers for a top 10 pick. Fine for a RB2. This year has been the perfect storm of #### with the suspension, the coaching change, and the continued struggles of Buffalo's offense. I think we'll see Lynch bounce back and become a solid RB2 again, whether it's in Buffalo or elsewhere. Might be a good time to buy, actually.

This thread was started with the same premise you started the thread about Forte. He was being valued as a top 5-7 dynasty RB. A 1st round startup selection. And, much like Forte, he didn't really warrant that based on his production on the field. It was his opportunity, much like Forte's. We got to see what happens when another RB on your team comes in and does your job just as good if not better. Now, Fred Jackson is looking to be the starter for the rest of the year possibly. I'm NOT saying Lynch is complete crap. I didn't in the beginning either. Simply that he was an average talent, at best, compared to many other NFL RB's and now I'm not surprised to see him lose his job. This could be Forte next year. I find it interesting that you have this to say about Lynch when it's basically the exact same idea that your thread is based on and you're coming in now to say Lynch is a good buy. Will you say the same for Forte if he suffers the same fate and loses his job and his value crumbles? Would he be a good buy then?

 

[Young 8]

Add in how well Fred Jackson did in his absense, and I think Lynch is probably being way overrated at this point. I don't know if I've really seen anything negative about him on these boards and this may be the first. If I owned him right now, I would seriously consider selling to be honest since he's commanding a pretty lofty price tag and I think a lot of it is due to his youth.ETA--I missed week 17 as I was looking on my fantasy site and it wasn't included. Updated above.

. It was simply to show that Jackson, basically a rookie journeyman, performed better than Lynch in the same offense under conditions that mattered. It's not like Lynch had an ankle injury all year long, is it?And, by the way, in the last 3 games, Jackson got 27 touches or 1/3 of his season touches. Not only did he touch the field but it appears he touched the football as well. During the same 3 games, Lynch had 64 touches. So basically, Jackson got about 30% of the RB touches. Looks more like RBBC than barely touching the field.

good callsthis clown has been one of the biggest bust of the season

 

[Young 8]

after reading this thread, I have to admit Im a little less excited about Lynch, especially in redraft formats. OP made some pretty solid points

this thread is full of crapthe guy who started it must have Fred Jackson in a Dinasty

I was the BIGGEST CLOWN here

 

[EBF]

He was overrated if you were expecting the next elite NFL starter, but he's a solid player. The OP was made before the 2008 season when he had 1000+ rushing yards at 4.1 YPC and 40+ catches. Bad numbers for a top 10 pick. Fine for a RB2. This year has been the perfect storm of #### with the suspension, the coaching change, and the continued struggles of Buffalo's offense. I think we'll see Lynch bounce back and become a solid RB2 again, whether it's in Buffalo or elsewhere. Might be a good time to buy, actually.

This thread was started with the same premise you started the thread about Forte. He was being valued as a top 5-7 dynasty RB. A 1st round startup selection. And, much like Forte, he didn't really warrant that based on his production on the field. It was his opportunity, much like Forte's. We got to see what happens when another RB on your team comes in and does your job just as good if not better. Now, Fred Jackson is looking to be the starter for the rest of the year possibly. I'm NOT saying Lynch is complete crap. I didn't in the beginning either. Simply that he was an average talent, at best, compared to many other NFL RB's and now I'm not surprised to see him lose his job. This could be Forte next year. I find it interesting that you have this to say about Lynch when it's basically the exact same idea that your thread is based on and you're coming in now to say Lynch is a good buy. Will you say the same for Forte if he suffers the same fate and loses his job and his value crumbles? Would he be a good buy then?

There's a difference between Lynch and Forte.Lynch was a top 15 NFL draft pick. He's a better physical specimen than Forte. More importantly, he has already logged two 1000+ yard rushing seasons with a 4.0+ YPC on crap offenses. That's pretty good. It tells me that he's capable of producing regardless of his situation. That's one of the hallmarks of a franchise back.Was he worth a top 10 dynasty pick? No. In that sense you're right. Anyone who took him that high made a mistake. But is he an "average talent at best?" I don't think so. Average talents don't get picked in the top 15 of the NFL draft and rush for 1000+ yards with a respectable YPC on crappy teams in their first two seasons. Lynch is not an elite NFL player, but he's good enough to hold down a starting job. I think he's somewhere along the lines of Marion Barber, Cedric Benson, Thomas Jones, or Willis McGahee. Good. Not great. The reason I think he's a potential buy low is because I believe he's a starting caliber NFL talent. I think he'd be an upgrade for roughly half the teams in the NFL. I don't feel that way about Forte.

 

[gianmarco]

He was overrated if you were expecting the next elite NFL starter, but he's a solid player. The OP was made before the 2008 season when he had 1000+ rushing yards at 4.1 YPC and 40+ catches. Bad numbers for a top 10 pick. Fine for a RB2. This year has been the perfect storm of #### with the suspension, the coaching change, and the continued struggles of Buffalo's offense. I think we'll see Lynch bounce back and become a solid RB2 again, whether it's in Buffalo or elsewhere. Might be a good time to buy, actually.

This thread was started with the same premise you started the thread about Forte. He was being valued as a top 5-7 dynasty RB. A 1st round startup selection. And, much like Forte, he didn't really warrant that based on his production on the field. It was his opportunity, much like Forte's. We got to see what happens when another RB on your team comes in and does your job just as good if not better. Now, Fred Jackson is looking to be the starter for the rest of the year possibly. I'm NOT saying Lynch is complete crap. I didn't in the beginning either. Simply that he was an average talent, at best, compared to many other NFL RB's and now I'm not surprised to see him lose his job. This could be Forte next year. I find it interesting that you have this to say about Lynch when it's basically the exact same idea that your thread is based on and you're coming in now to say Lynch is a good buy. Will you say the same for Forte if he suffers the same fate and loses his job and his value crumbles? Would he be a good buy then?

There's a difference between Lynch and Forte.Lynch was a top 15 NFL draft pick. He's a better physical specimen than Forte. More importantly, he has already logged two 1000+ yard rushing seasons with a 4.0+ YPC on crap offenses. That's pretty good. It tells me that he's capable of producing regardless of his situation. That's one of the hallmarks of a franchise back.Was he worth a top 10 dynasty pick? No. In that sense you're right. Anyone who took him that high made a mistake. But is he an "average talent at best?" I don't think so. Average talents don't get picked in the top 15 of the NFL draft and rush for 1000+ yards with a respectable YPC on crappy teams in their first two seasons. Lynch is not an elite NFL player, but he's good enough to hold down a starting job. I think he's somewhere along the lines of Marion Barber, Cedric Benson, Thomas Jones, or Willis McGahee. Good. Not great. The reason I think he's a potential buy low is because I believe he's a starting caliber NFL talent. I think he'd be an upgrade for roughly half the teams in the NFL. I don't feel that way about Forte.

It's not as if Forte was undrafted. The guy was a high 2nd round pick. That's still solid "pedigree". At this point in their careers and given what they've done, I think you can throw the pedigree comparison out. Lynch, despite being a top 15 selection, hasn't stood out. Ever. And it's not as if Buffalo has a stellar record in knocking draft picks out of the park. Especially in the 1st round.As far as better physical specimen, aside from a difference in the broad jump, their measurables are pretty similar. Identical 40 times. Similar verticals. Faster shuttle and more bench press for Forte. Sorry, just don't buy it. Finally, in terms of an average talent, I can give you a list of RBs that are EASILY more talented than Lynch: AP, CJ3, MJD, SJax, DeAngelo, Rice, Gore, Stewart, Mendenhall, Turner, Ronnie Brown, Jacobs, Portis.......and I'm not even including a lot of others that are at least similar and most would like better (Beanie, Moreno, Barber, McCoy, PT, Benson, etc.). Finally, the fact that Fred Jackson has consistently outperformed him the last couple of years tells me that it's not all on the Buffalo Bills offensive woes that have kept Lynch from performing well. That's why he's been replaced. I'm not denying that he has startable RB talent in the league. But just because he can start for 10-15 teams in the league (if it's even that high) doesn't make him an above average talent. It makes him "an average talent, at best". I find it odd that you're arguing with that description when you, yourself, stated he may be able to start for roughly half the teams in the league. That, by definition, is average. Finally, I'm not saying specifically that Forte is better than Lynch. I'm simply stating that the premise behind your Forte thread is the same as the premise here. Both were overvalued going into their 2nd years based on production despite it being more due to opportunity. It's caught up to Lynch. He's in his 3rd year and lost his starting job already. The same could happen to Forte. Neither are worthy of being considered top 10 RBs. Neither ever were. I think the 2 are much closer in ability than you, but that's ok if you don't agree with that. I just find it odd that you're trying to paint the picture that there's a big difference between the 2 and their situations when they are VERY similar. You seem to have been higher on Lynch earlier on but now are letting that bias cloud your evaluation of these 2 pretty similar situations. It's ok...time will tell.

 

[EBF]

My argument against Forte has been threefold:

1. He was not touted as a special player entering the league.

2. He does not have special physical qualities.

3. He has not been productive.

Lynch scores better on all three metrics. He was touted as a special player entering the league (there's a pretty significant difference between the success rate of top 15 RBs and 2nd round RBs). He has combine numbers on par with what you typically see from first round RB prospects. He has been productive. Prior to this season he had two consecutive 1000+ yard seasons with a 4.0+ YPC. Add it all up and you have a much more appealing player than Forte.

I see where you're coming from, but these are not identical situations. As for whether or not Lynch is "average at best," I think you need to define average. There are about 100 RBs in the NFL. Lynch is certainly above average compared to that group. There are roughly 32 starting RBs in the NFL. I would agree that Lynch is fairly average compared to that group.

I'm not really seeing the "Lynch = overrated" argument unless you're strictly talking about people who spent top 15 picks on him. I already said he's not worth that, but I don't think he's overvalued where we stand today. He didn't go very high in my drafts this past offseason and he'll go even lower this year. I think it's to the point where his actual value is greater than his perceived value. A 23 year old RB with a top 15 pedigree and two 1000+ yard seasons under his belt seems like a fair value in rounds 4-7 (where he'll probably go this offseason in most 12 team leagues).

 

[gianmarco]

My argument against Forte has been threefold:

1. He was not touted as a special player entering the league.

2. He does not have special physical qualities.

3. He has not been productive.

Lynch scores better on all three metrics. He was touted as a special player entering the league (there's a pretty significant difference between the success rate of top 15 RBs and 2nd round RBs). He has combine numbers on par with what you typically see from first round RB prospects. He has been productive. Prior to this season he had two consecutive 1000+ yard seasons with a 4.0+ YPC. Add it all up and you have a much more appealing player than Forte.

I see where you're coming from, but these are not identical situations. As for whether or not Lynch is "average at best," I think you need to define average. There are about 100 RBs in the NFL. Lynch is certainly above average compared to that group. There are roughly 32 starting RBs in the NFL. I would agree that Lynch is fairly average compared to that group.



I'm not really seeing the "Lynch = overrated" argument unless you're strictly talking about people who spent top 15 picks on him. I already said he's not worth that, but I don't think he's overvalued where we stand today. He didn't go very high in my drafts this past offseason and he'll go even lower this year. I think it's to the point where his actual value is greater than his perceived value. A 23 year old RB with a top 15 pedigree and two 1000+ yard seasons under his belt seems like a fair value in rounds 4-7 (where he'll probably go this offseason in most 12 team leagues).

Look at the date I posted this. Going into his 2nd year, which is when I posted this, he was absolutely going in the top 15 picks. He was going in the top 10 picks. This thread wasn't started this year. As to his current value, of course he's not overvalued. His value is crap today. I'm actually in agreement with you that his actual value is higher that his perceived value but I think he has mid RB2 upside, at best. He could be a nice buy if you can get him cheap and wait until he gets a starting job somewhere. Finally, I don't think I need to define average. You're just being silly if you think I'm comparing him to the 100 RBs in the league. If we did that, then Jamal Lewis, Julius Jones, and Tim Hightower are above average. You know full well it's in relation to RBs we justify owning, i.e., starting RBs and SOME backup RBs. Once you get to that RB15-20 range, we're talking about "average" guys. Guys like Grant, Kevin Smith, Slaton, McFadden, J. Charles, etc.....These are the average guys. They're not elite talents. There's a whole host of them. Lynch fits right in there. All of these guys could hold a starting job somewhere but almost all are replaceable. They aren't guys that you build a team around.

 

[EBF]

Guys like Grant, Kevin Smith, Slaton, McFadden, J. Charles, etc.....These are the average guys. They're not elite talents. There's a whole host of them. Lynch fits right in there.

I think he's a notch above those guys. I think he's closer to Thomas Jones, Knowshon Moreno, Marion Barber, and Willis McGahee (when he was younger). Not world beaters, but good backs who would be signed to start somewhere if they hit free agency.

 

[Righetti]

Having seen him play a few times against the Jets I always thought this guy had a world of talent and was one of the best RB's in the league.. Too bad for Lynch he can only play the Jets twice per year.