Is Palmer the clear #2? (1 Viewer)

[jurrassic]

Do you consider Palmer the clear #2 after Manning? If so, when would you draft him. Assuming you have 2 rb's would you take him if he is there in the 3rd round over wr's like Williams, Fitz, or Walker?

 

[Bobcat10]

Generally speaking since the question was sort of vague, I say yes, especially in 6pt TD leagues.

If you don't, there's a good chance you won't see Palmer, Brady and Brees at your 4th pick. Now you are looking at Bulger/McNabb probably, or waiting until the 7th/8th to get a QB.

I'm thinking Palmer is gone by the 3rd most of the time though.

 

[massraider]

The offensive tackle thing is making me nervous, I think in a redraft I might even put Brees over him. Love Palmer, have him as a keeper in two leagues, but the line situation is worrisome.

 

[JMJ]

I have seen Palmer go as early as mid-to-late 2nd round and haven't batted an eye lash at it. He is the consensus #2 QB and any RB after the first 9 or 10 have tremendous question marks. If you pick him in late round 2, that means you now have LT, LJ, SJAX, Gore, etc. and Carson Palmer.

That is a foundation right there and much safer then picking a RB who could bust like Thomas Jones, Cedric Benson, Brandon Jacobs, Lawrence Maroney, etc.

 

[Horses Mouth]

we have a QB emphasized keep up to 3 league and i can keep R Brown and Palmer or drop Palmer and end up with Brown and Peterson. This is driving me crazy.

 

[Dt's Mules]

clear #2 - no

don't pick qb 2 unless you won't be able to get qb 5....won't be a hill of beans difference between 2 and 5

for reference palmers last 2 years ppg average 20.6 and 19.8

bulgers 21.7 and 19.7

mcnabbs 22.3 and 24.4

really, it comes down to injury concerns and other qualitative factors on who someone might like at #2....but clear #2, definitely not.

 

[Chaka]

The offensive tackle thing is making me nervous, I think in a redraft I might even put Brees over him. Love Palmer, have him as a keeper in two leagues, but the line situation is worrisome.

I have tempered my enthusiasm with Palmer because of the offensive line. I have Brees and Brady ahead of him at this point.

 

[Pipes]

The offensive tackle thing is making me nervous, I think in a redraft I might even put Brees over him. Love Palmer, have him as a keeper in two leagues, but the line situation is worrisome.

I have tempered my enthusiasm with Palmer because of the offensive line. I have Brees and Brady ahead of him at this point.

It seems to me that Brady is the proper pick at QB #2

 

[Blackstar]

If Palmer has a Palmer year, expect anyone ahead of him to have approx. 3800+ and 30+ TDs. If you think someone will do better than that, by all means. take him....

 

[Snotbubbles]

The offensive tackle thing is making me nervous, I think in a redraft I might even put Brees over him. Love Palmer, have him as a keeper in two leagues, but the line situation is worrisome.

I have tempered my enthusiasm with Palmer because of the offensive line. I have Brees and Brady ahead of him at this point.

It seems to me that Brady is the proper pick at QB #2

McNabb will outperform Brady, Brees, Palmer, Bulger and maybe even Manning.

 

[Horses Mouth]

McNabb will outperform Brady, Brees, Palmer, Bulger and maybe even Manning.

homer

 

[The Man with the Plan]

The Bengals offensive line is a mess.

Guard Eric Steinbach went to Cleveland

Center Rich Braham retired.

Tackles Willie Anderson and Levi Jones are both injured.

Not good. I'd take Bulger,Brees,Manning,McNabb, and maybe Brady over Palmer. I think he's getting drafted much too high for my liking.

 

[Snotbubbles]

McNabb will outperform Brady, Brees, Palmer, Bulger and maybe even Manning.

homer

Ok. Just look at the numbers. Take McNabb and then grab Feeley off the waiver wires in week 1.

 

[SoFresh&SoClean]

The Bengals offensive line is a mess.Guard Eric Steinbach went to ClevelandCenter Rich Braham retired.Tackles Willie Anderson and Levi Jones are both injured.Not good. I'd take Bulger,Brees,Manning,McNabb, and maybe Brady over Palmer. I think he's getting drafted much too high for my liking.

Willie and Levi will be back for opener. Whitworth and Williams started all last season and Ghuichic looks like a more than solid replacement for Braham. Carson will be top 5 if he stays on the field.

 

[turnit643]

I have Palmer at QB2. In my book, Brady and Brees are right there as well and McNabb would be above them if not for the injury scare. Kept Palmer to fill my 3rd round pick after LJ and SA in a 16 team / keep up to 3.

 

[Horses Mouth]

McNabb will outperform Brady, Brees, Palmer, Bulger and maybe even Manning.

homer

Ok. Just look at the numbers. Take McNabb and then grab Feeley off the waiver wires in week 1.

just messing about Snot. He could quite easily do extremely well this year.

 

[jurrassic]

I gathered from most of the comments the conclusion is no, he is not the clear #2. The basis for this subject was to determine if you truly feel you are a better off and have a leg up on the competition by drafting Palmer instead of a clear #1 like Fitz or Williams. Most people view the group of 5 qb's after Manning as a group. Now Palmer might be 2a and Brady, Brees, Bulger, and McNabb are 2b or McNabb may even be 2c because of the injury but they are close.

 

[Snotbubbles]

McNabb will outperform Brady, Brees, Palmer, Bulger and maybe even Manning.

homer

Ok. Just look at the numbers. Take McNabb and then grab Feeley off the waiver wires in week 1.

just messing about Snot. He could quite easily do extremely well this year.

No worries. McNabb looked absolutely brilliant in his game against Carolina. He had good zip on the ball and threw it extremely accurately. He looks like he lost 30lbs and appears to be in probably the best shape of his career. And he seems to still be fairly mobile. Obviously, he was going against vanilla offenses, but McNabb usually looks terrible in the preseason. In his first game back, he looks like McNabb circa 2004.

 

[JMJ]

I retract my previous statements:

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=335793

 

[dirtywaters20]

McNabb will outperform Brady, Brees, Palmer, Bulger and maybe even Manning.

homer

Ok. Just look at the numbers. Take McNabb and then grab Feeley off the waiver wires in week 1.

just messing about Snot. He could quite easily do extremely well this year.

No worries. McNabb looked absolutely brilliant in his game against Carolina. He had good zip on the ball and threw it extremely accurately. He looks like he lost 30lbs and appears to be in probably the best shape of his career. And he seems to still be fairly mobile. Obviously, he was going against vanilla offenses, but McNabb usually looks terrible in the preseason. In his first game back, he looks like McNabb circa 2004.

Agreed on all except the mobility. That's gonna take some time. Couple that with the ambiguity of Big Shawn's injury, an improved defense (likely), and a healthy 3 back rotation & I'd take Brees over McNabb this year. Brees looks primed for a repeat & Payton is a great play caller. He's my number 2 this year.

 

[Pocket Joker]

There really isn't a clear #2 --- there is a clear tier 2, though. I'd group Brees/Palmer/McNabb/Bulger/Hasselbeck/Brady all together. You should be able to get one of these guys easily in the 3rd/4th (in a 10 or 12 team league).

 

[dirtywaters20]

There really isn't a clear #2 --- there is a clear tier 2, though. I'd group Brees/Palmer/McNabb/Bulger/Hasselbeck/Brady all together. You should be able to get one of these guys easily in the 3rd/4th (in a 10 or 12 team league).

Hasslebeck? First time I've heard him mentioned in that tier. I get the soft division schedule but why so optimistic?

 

[Pipes]

There really isn't a clear #2 --- there is a clear tier 2, though. I'd group Brees/Palmer/McNabb/Bulger/Hasselbeck/Brady all together. You should be able to get one of these guys easily in the 3rd/4th (in a 10 or 12 team league).

I wouldn't put Hasselbeck in that 2nd tier group.

 

[Snotbubbles]

McNabb will outperform Brady, Brees, Palmer, Bulger and maybe even Manning.

homer

Ok. Just look at the numbers. Take McNabb and then grab Feeley off the waiver wires in week 1.

just messing about Snot. He could quite easily do extremely well this year.

No worries. McNabb looked absolutely brilliant in his game against Carolina. He had good zip on the ball and threw it extremely accurately. He looks like he lost 30lbs and appears to be in probably the best shape of his career. And he seems to still be fairly mobile. Obviously, he was going against vanilla offenses, but McNabb usually looks terrible in the preseason. In his first game back, he looks like McNabb circa 2004.

Agreed on all except the mobility. That's gonna take some time. Couple that with the ambiguity of Big Shawn's injury, an improved defense (likely), and a healthy 3 back rotation & I'd take Brees over McNabb this year. Brees looks primed for a repeat & Payton is a great play caller. He's my number 2 this year.

Andrews injury will/would have more effect on the running game then the passing game. If you say it will take time for McNabb to get back to what he used to be mobility wise then yes, I agree. But even at 80% he's still more mobile than Manning, Brees, Palmer, Bulger and Brady. Also, to ICWT10 who's all hopped up on the Brees juice because he's completed 80% of his passes in the preseason here goes some more for you:Rex Grossman has completed 81% of his passes at 10.5 Y/Att.Brian Griese has completed 80% of his passes at 10.0/Att.Trent Edwards has completed 77.8% of his passes at 13.5 Y/Att.Drew Brees has completed 80% of his passes at 8.0/Att. That says to me that they aren't taking shots down the field. Nothing more than a bunch of dump offs, and short passes. Compare that to McNabb who only completed 66.7% of his passes but they went for 15.3 Y/Att. So at that clip McNabb would only have to attempt half as many passes as Brees. Considering that McNabb over his career has averaged 31 pass attempts per game, Brees would have to attempt about 62 passes per game (or 992 passes for the season) to equal McNabbs production (which doesn't include any rushing totals). Of course, this is all based on preseason stats.

 

[dirtywaters20]

Andrews injury will/would have more effect on the running game then the passing game.

If you say it will take time for McNabb to get back to what he used to be mobility wise then yes, I agree. But even at 80% he's still more mobile than Manning, Brees, Palmer, Bulger and Brady.

Also, to ICWT10 who's all hopped up on the Brees juice because he's completed 80% of his passes in the preseason here goes some more for you:

Rex Grossman has completed 81% of his passes at 10.5 Y/Att.

Brian Griese has completed 80% of his passes at 10.0/Att.

Trent Edwards has completed 77.8% of his passes at 13.5 Y/Att.

Drew Brees has completed 80% of his passes at 8.0/Att. That says to me that they aren't taking shots down the field. Nothing more than a bunch of dump offs, and short passes. Compare that to McNabb who only completed 66.7% of his passes but they went for 15.3 Y/Att. So at that clip McNabb would only have to attempt half as many passes as Brees. Considering that McNabb over his career has averaged 31 pass attempts per game, Brees would have to attempt about 62 passes per game (or 992 passes for the season) to equal McNabbs production (which doesn't include any rushing totals). Of course, this is all based on preseason stats.

I agree his 80% mobility still exceeds the other "elites" but it's kinda irrelevant. His PPG is more reliant on rushing yards (with the exception of the TO year) than the rest. I don't think his game this year will have that facet & as a result, I have him projected behind Brees. I don't need to focus on Brees' production in the preseason, his past resume speaks for itself. For what it's worth, I would take McNabb 3rd given Reid's annoying penchant for throwing the ball regardless of game situations.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Andrews injury will/would have more effect on the running game then the passing game. If you say it will take time for McNabb to get back to what he used to be mobility wise then yes, I agree. But even at 80% he's still more mobile than Manning, Brees, Palmer, Bulger and Brady. Also, to ICWT10 who's all hopped up on the Brees juice because he's completed 80% of his passes in the preseason here goes some more for you:Rex Grossman has completed 81% of his passes at 10.5 Y/Att.Brian Griese has completed 80% of his passes at 10.0/Att.Trent Edwards has completed 77.8% of his passes at 13.5 Y/Att.Drew Brees has completed 80% of his passes at 8.0/Att. That says to me that they aren't taking shots down the field. Nothing more than a bunch of dump offs, and short passes. Compare that to McNabb who only completed 66.7% of his passes but they went for 15.3 Y/Att. So at that clip McNabb would only have to attempt half as many passes as Brees. Considering that McNabb over his career has averaged 31 pass attempts per game, Brees would have to attempt about 62 passes per game (or 992 passes for the season) to equal McNabbs production (which doesn't include any rushing totals). Of course, this is all based on preseason stats.I agree his 80% mobility still exceeds the other "elites" but it's kinda irrelevant. His PPG is more reliant on rushing yards (with the exception of the TO year) than the rest. I don't think his game this year will have that facet & as a result, I have him projected behind Brees. I don't need to focus on Brees' production in the preseason, his past resume speaks for itself. For what it's worth, I would take McNabb 3rd given Reid's annoying penchant for throwing the ball regardless of game situations.

Actually, the misconception that his fantasy scoring is reliant on his running incorrect. You bring up the 2004 TO year as the exception to the rule. In 2004 he had 2.7 rush attempts per game, probably half as much as he normally would run in prior years. In 2005 when McNabb had the sports herinia and basically couldn't walk, let alone run he still averaged 2.7 rush attempts per game. And last year when he was the #1 QB in terms of PPG he only had 3.2 attempts per game. I don't think McNabb has been nearly as reliant on his rushing abilities since 2003 when he used his legs as a weapon. In the past few years, it's not so much that he runs that makes the difference for McNabb, it's the threat that he could run that makes the difference. When he goes, he's better than the other top QBs, but he doesn't go nearly as often as he used to and that was even before his knee injury.

 

[turleyfan]

I am glad to see this discussion. In most of my mocks, the DD screams at me to take Palmer in the second round. I tend to refuse, and pick up one of the Tier 1 WR's instead. This suggests to me that the Expert Projections from Dodds, et al are pretty optimistic for Palmer, and don't seem to reflect the mood here.

Interestingly, most of the strategy articles I have read here suggest the QB value is in the later picks, and those who use the necessary picks to land Palmer, Manning, Brady, Bulger and Brees are not going to derive maximum benefit from those picks. Not when you could get 95% of the production from a 6th, 7th or 8th round QB like Kitna, V Young, or Ben.

I have no idea what to expect from McNabb this year, but acknowledge that he looks good so far.

 

[dirtywaters20]

Andrews injury will/would have more effect on the running game then the passing game. If you say it will take time for McNabb to get back to what he used to be mobility wise then yes, I agree. But even at 80% he's still more mobile than Manning, Brees, Palmer, Bulger and Brady. Also, to ICWT10 who's all hopped up on the Brees juice because he's completed 80% of his passes in the preseason here goes some more for you:Rex Grossman has completed 81% of his passes at 10.5 Y/Att.Brian Griese has completed 80% of his passes at 10.0/Att.Trent Edwards has completed 77.8% of his passes at 13.5 Y/Att.Drew Brees has completed 80% of his passes at 8.0/Att. That says to me that they aren't taking shots down the field. Nothing more than a bunch of dump offs, and short passes. Compare that to McNabb who only completed 66.7% of his passes but they went for 15.3 Y/Att. So at that clip McNabb would only have to attempt half as many passes as Brees. Considering that McNabb over his career has averaged 31 pass attempts per game, Brees would have to attempt about 62 passes per game (or 992 passes for the season) to equal McNabbs production (which doesn't include any rushing totals). Of course, this is all based on preseason stats.I agree his 80% mobility still exceeds the other "elites" but it's kinda irrelevant. His PPG is more reliant on rushing yards (with the exception of the TO year) than the rest. I don't think his game this year will have that facet & as a result, I have him projected behind Brees. I don't need to focus on Brees' production in the preseason, his past resume speaks for itself. For what it's worth, I would take McNabb 3rd given Reid's annoying penchant for throwing the ball regardless of game situations.

Actually, the misconception that his fantasy scoring is reliant on his running incorrect. You bring up the 2004 TO year as the exception to the rule. In 2004 he had 2.7 rush attempts per game, probably half as much as he normally would run in prior years. In 2005 when McNabb had the sports herinia and basically couldn't walk, let alone run he still averaged 2.7 rush attempts per game. And last year when he was the #1 QB in terms of PPG he only had 3.2 attempts per game. I don't think McNabb has been nearly as reliant on his rushing abilities since 2003 when he used his legs as a weapon. In the past few years, it's not so much that he runs that makes the difference for McNabb, it's the threat that he could run that makes the difference. When he goes, he's better than the other top QBs, but he doesn't go nearly as often as he used to and that was even before his knee injury.

While it is overblown in recent years, it is more of a factor than you're letting on. He started 10 games last year (finished 9) and rushed for over 200 yards. In the vast majority of leagues that translates to 2 PPG. That is before considering the 3 TD runs he had last year which obviously are less likely to happen if his mobility is restricted.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Andrews injury will/would have more effect on the running game then the passing game. If you say it will take time for McNabb to get back to what he used to be mobility wise then yes, I agree. But even at 80% he's still more mobile than Manning, Brees, Palmer, Bulger and Brady. Also, to ICWT10 who's all hopped up on the Brees juice because he's completed 80% of his passes in the preseason here goes some more for you:Rex Grossman has completed 81% of his passes at 10.5 Y/Att.Brian Griese has completed 80% of his passes at 10.0/Att.Trent Edwards has completed 77.8% of his passes at 13.5 Y/Att.Drew Brees has completed 80% of his passes at 8.0/Att. That says to me that they aren't taking shots down the field. Nothing more than a bunch of dump offs, and short passes. Compare that to McNabb who only completed 66.7% of his passes but they went for 15.3 Y/Att. So at that clip McNabb would only have to attempt half as many passes as Brees. Considering that McNabb over his career has averaged 31 pass attempts per game, Brees would have to attempt about 62 passes per game (or 992 passes for the season) to equal McNabbs production (which doesn't include any rushing totals). Of course, this is all based on preseason stats.I agree his 80% mobility still exceeds the other "elites" but it's kinda irrelevant. His PPG is more reliant on rushing yards (with the exception of the TO year) than the rest. I don't think his game this year will have that facet & as a result, I have him projected behind Brees. I don't need to focus on Brees' production in the preseason, his past resume speaks for itself. For what it's worth, I would take McNabb 3rd given Reid's annoying penchant for throwing the ball regardless of game situations.

Actually, the misconception that his fantasy scoring is reliant on his running incorrect. You bring up the 2004 TO year as the exception to the rule. In 2004 he had 2.7 rush attempts per game, probably half as much as he normally would run in prior years. In 2005 when McNabb had the sports herinia and basically couldn't walk, let alone run he still averaged 2.7 rush attempts per game. And last year when he was the #1 QB in terms of PPG he only had 3.2 attempts per game. I don't think McNabb has been nearly as reliant on his rushing abilities since 2003 when he used his legs as a weapon. In the past few years, it's not so much that he runs that makes the difference for McNabb, it's the threat that he could run that makes the difference. When he goes, he's better than the other top QBs, but he doesn't go nearly as often as he used to and that was even before his knee injury.

While it is overblown in recent years, it is more of a factor than you're letting on. He started 10 games last year (finished 9) and rushed for over 200 yards. In the vast majority of leagues that translates to 2 PPG. That is before considering the 3 TD runs he had last year which obviously are less likely to happen if his mobility is restricted.

OK. I'll play along. McNabbs yardage totals on average equal 2PPG. His TD totals (3 at 6 pts per TD) equal about 2PPG. So McNabb got roughly 4PPG from his rushing totals. If McNabb only gets 50% (extremely conservative which would put him at about 25 rushes for a 16 game season) of his rushing totals from last year he will lose 2PPG.Using FBG scoring:McNabb averaged 23.19PPG. Minus the 2PPG from a 50% reduction in rushing stats. McNabb would have averaged 21.19PPG. Drew Brees averaged 19.86PPGHere's the problem. McNabb will get more than 25 rushes in a season. Carson Palmer had 26 rushes last season and he has NEVER been a running QB. I don't think McNabb will rush less than Palmer who was coming of an ACL tear as well (plus McNabb has had an additional 2 month more of rehab).

 

[dirtywaters20]

Andrews injury will/would have more effect on the running game then the passing game. If you say it will take time for McNabb to get back to what he used to be mobility wise then yes, I agree. But even at 80% he's still more mobile than Manning, Brees, Palmer, Bulger and Brady. Also, to ICWT10 who's all hopped up on the Brees juice because he's completed 80% of his passes in the preseason here goes some more for you:Rex Grossman has completed 81% of his passes at 10.5 Y/Att.Brian Griese has completed 80% of his passes at 10.0/Att.Trent Edwards has completed 77.8% of his passes at 13.5 Y/Att.Drew Brees has completed 80% of his passes at 8.0/Att. That says to me that they aren't taking shots down the field. Nothing more than a bunch of dump offs, and short passes. Compare that to McNabb who only completed 66.7% of his passes but they went for 15.3 Y/Att. So at that clip McNabb would only have to attempt half as many passes as Brees. Considering that McNabb over his career has averaged 31 pass attempts per game, Brees would have to attempt about 62 passes per game (or 992 passes for the season) to equal McNabbs production (which doesn't include any rushing totals). Of course, this is all based on preseason stats.I agree his 80% mobility still exceeds the other "elites" but it's kinda irrelevant. His PPG is more reliant on rushing yards (with the exception of the TO year) than the rest. I don't think his game this year will have that facet & as a result, I have him projected behind Brees. I don't need to focus on Brees' production in the preseason, his past resume speaks for itself. For what it's worth, I would take McNabb 3rd given Reid's annoying penchant for throwing the ball regardless of game situations.

Actually, the misconception that his fantasy scoring is reliant on his running incorrect. You bring up the 2004 TO year as the exception to the rule. In 2004 he had 2.7 rush attempts per game, probably half as much as he normally would run in prior years. In 2005 when McNabb had the sports herinia and basically couldn't walk, let alone run he still averaged 2.7 rush attempts per game. And last year when he was the #1 QB in terms of PPG he only had 3.2 attempts per game. I don't think McNabb has been nearly as reliant on his rushing abilities since 2003 when he used his legs as a weapon. In the past few years, it's not so much that he runs that makes the difference for McNabb, it's the threat that he could run that makes the difference. When he goes, he's better than the other top QBs, but he doesn't go nearly as often as he used to and that was even before his knee injury.

While it is overblown in recent years, it is more of a factor than you're letting on. He started 10 games last year (finished 9) and rushed for over 200 yards. In the vast majority of leagues that translates to 2 PPG. That is before considering the 3 TD runs he had last year which obviously are less likely to happen if his mobility is restricted.

OK. I'll play along. McNabbs yardage totals on average equal 2PPG. His TD totals (3 at 6 pts per TD) equal about 2PPG. So McNabb got roughly 4PPG from his rushing totals. If McNabb only gets 50% (extremely conservative which would put him at about 25 rushes for a 16 game season) of his rushing totals from last year he will lose 2PPG.Using FBG scoring:McNabb averaged 23.19PPG. Minus the 2PPG from a 50% reduction in rushing stats. McNabb would have averaged 21.19PPG. Drew Brees averaged 19.86PPGHere's the problem. McNabb will get more than 25 rushes in a season. Carson Palmer had 26 rushes last season and he has NEVER been a running QB. I don't think McNabb will rush less than Palmer who was coming of an ACL tear as well (plus McNabb has had an additional 2 month more of rehab).

Do you get points from qb rushes or yardage? Or are you assuming his YPC will remain the same despite limited mobility. Not to mention it is not a stretch to think that his lack of mobility could also have a negative effect on his overall passing totals. Couple the fact that he's 8mths removed from majory surgery, with the spector of more balanced play calling, a defense that has improved on paper and the uncertain status of his best lineman & tight end & he's no higher than 3 on my board.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Andrews injury will/would have more effect on the running game then the passing game. If you say it will take time for McNabb to get back to what he used to be mobility wise then yes, I agree. But even at 80% he's still more mobile than Manning, Brees, Palmer, Bulger and Brady. Also, to ICWT10 who's all hopped up on the Brees juice because he's completed 80% of his passes in the preseason here goes some more for you:Rex Grossman has completed 81% of his passes at 10.5 Y/Att.Brian Griese has completed 80% of his passes at 10.0/Att.Trent Edwards has completed 77.8% of his passes at 13.5 Y/Att.Drew Brees has completed 80% of his passes at 8.0/Att. That says to me that they aren't taking shots down the field. Nothing more than a bunch of dump offs, and short passes. Compare that to McNabb who only completed 66.7% of his passes but they went for 15.3 Y/Att. So at that clip McNabb would only have to attempt half as many passes as Brees. Considering that McNabb over his career has averaged 31 pass attempts per game, Brees would have to attempt about 62 passes per game (or 992 passes for the season) to equal McNabbs production (which doesn't include any rushing totals). Of course, this is all based on preseason stats.I agree his 80% mobility still exceeds the other "elites" but it's kinda irrelevant. His PPG is more reliant on rushing yards (with the exception of the TO year) than the rest. I don't think his game this year will have that facet & as a result, I have him projected behind Brees. I don't need to focus on Brees' production in the preseason, his past resume speaks for itself. For what it's worth, I would take McNabb 3rd given Reid's annoying penchant for throwing the ball regardless of game situations.

Actually, the misconception that his fantasy scoring is reliant on his running incorrect. You bring up the 2004 TO year as the exception to the rule. In 2004 he had 2.7 rush attempts per game, probably half as much as he normally would run in prior years. In 2005 when McNabb had the sports herinia and basically couldn't walk, let alone run he still averaged 2.7 rush attempts per game. And last year when he was the #1 QB in terms of PPG he only had 3.2 attempts per game. I don't think McNabb has been nearly as reliant on his rushing abilities since 2003 when he used his legs as a weapon. In the past few years, it's not so much that he runs that makes the difference for McNabb, it's the threat that he could run that makes the difference. When he goes, he's better than the other top QBs, but he doesn't go nearly as often as he used to and that was even before his knee injury.

While it is overblown in recent years, it is more of a factor than you're letting on. He started 10 games last year (finished 9) and rushed for over 200 yards. In the vast majority of leagues that translates to 2 PPG. That is before considering the 3 TD runs he had last year which obviously are less likely to happen if his mobility is restricted.

OK. I'll play along. McNabbs yardage totals on average equal 2PPG. His TD totals (3 at 6 pts per TD) equal about 2PPG. So McNabb got roughly 4PPG from his rushing totals. If McNabb only gets 50% (extremely conservative which would put him at about 25 rushes for a 16 game season) of his rushing totals from last year he will lose 2PPG.Using FBG scoring:McNabb averaged 23.19PPG. Minus the 2PPG from a 50% reduction in rushing stats. McNabb would have averaged 21.19PPG. Drew Brees averaged 19.86PPGHere's the problem. McNabb will get more than 25 rushes in a season. Carson Palmer had 26 rushes last season and he has NEVER been a running QB. I don't think McNabb will rush less than Palmer who was coming of an ACL tear as well (plus McNabb has had an additional 2 month more of rehab).

Do you get points from qb rushes or yardage? Or are you assuming his YPC will remain the same despite limited mobility. Not to mention it is not a stretch to think that his lack of mobility could also have a negative effect on his overall passing totals. Couple the fact that he's 8mths removed from majory surgery, with the spector of more balanced play calling, a defense that has improved on paper and the uncertain status of his best lineman & tight end & he's no higher than 3 on my board.

From yardage. Ok. I'll play along even further. Removing ALL OF McNabbs rushing totals from last season he would have averaged 19.27 PPG from passing totals alone. Good for #3 behind Manning and Brees.Now let me ask you this. Do you think Drew Brees, who threw for 4400 yards last season will improve? In the last 50 years only 20 times has a QB thrown for 4400 yards. Only Warren Moon and Dan Fouts have come back the following season and improved (and Moon only improved by 1 yard). So the other 15 times (still waiting to see what Brees does this year) the QBs who have thrown for 4400+ yards have come back the following season to throw less yards than the season in which they hit 4400+ yards.Some examples:Marino threw for 5084 yards, the following season 4137. 4746, the following season 3245. 4434, the following season 3997.Manning threw for 4413, the following season 4131. Then he threw for 4557, the following season 3747.Favre threw for 4413, the following season 3899.I think it's a safe bet that Brees will AT BEST throw for something like 4000-4100 yards. And that's at best. I wouldn't be surprised to see something in the neighborhood of 3800-3900 yards this year from him.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Anywhere from 3.1 on.

 

[dirtywaters20]

Andrews injury will/would have more effect on the running game then the passing game. If you say it will take time for McNabb to get back to what he used to be mobility wise then yes, I agree. But even at 80% he's still more mobile than Manning, Brees, Palmer, Bulger and Brady. Also, to ICWT10 who's all hopped up on the Brees juice because he's completed 80% of his passes in the preseason here goes some more for you:Rex Grossman has completed 81% of his passes at 10.5 Y/Att.Brian Griese has completed 80% of his passes at 10.0/Att.Trent Edwards has completed 77.8% of his passes at 13.5 Y/Att.Drew Brees has completed 80% of his passes at 8.0/Att. That says to me that they aren't taking shots down the field. Nothing more than a bunch of dump offs, and short passes. Compare that to McNabb who only completed 66.7% of his passes but they went for 15.3 Y/Att. So at that clip McNabb would only have to attempt half as many passes as Brees. Considering that McNabb over his career has averaged 31 pass attempts per game, Brees would have to attempt about 62 passes per game (or 992 passes for the season) to equal McNabbs production (which doesn't include any rushing totals). Of course, this is all based on preseason stats.I agree his 80% mobility still exceeds the other "elites" but it's kinda irrelevant. His PPG is more reliant on rushing yards (with the exception of the TO year) than the rest. I don't think his game this year will have that facet & as a result, I have him projected behind Brees. I don't need to focus on Brees' production in the preseason, his past resume speaks for itself. For what it's worth, I would take McNabb 3rd given Reid's annoying penchant for throwing the ball regardless of game situations.

Actually, the misconception that his fantasy scoring is reliant on his running incorrect. You bring up the 2004 TO year as the exception to the rule. In 2004 he had 2.7 rush attempts per game, probably half as much as he normally would run in prior years. In 2005 when McNabb had the sports herinia and basically couldn't walk, let alone run he still averaged 2.7 rush attempts per game. And last year when he was the #1 QB in terms of PPG he only had 3.2 attempts per game. I don't think McNabb has been nearly as reliant on his rushing abilities since 2003 when he used his legs as a weapon. In the past few years, it's not so much that he runs that makes the difference for McNabb, it's the threat that he could run that makes the difference. When he goes, he's better than the other top QBs, but he doesn't go nearly as often as he used to and that was even before his knee injury.

While it is overblown in recent years, it is more of a factor than you're letting on. He started 10 games last year (finished 9) and rushed for over 200 yards. In the vast majority of leagues that translates to 2 PPG. That is before considering the 3 TD runs he had last year which obviously are less likely to happen if his mobility is restricted.

OK. I'll play along. McNabbs yardage totals on average equal 2PPG. His TD totals (3 at 6 pts per TD) equal about 2PPG. So McNabb got roughly 4PPG from his rushing totals. If McNabb only gets 50% (extremely conservative which would put him at about 25 rushes for a 16 game season) of his rushing totals from last year he will lose 2PPG.Using FBG scoring:McNabb averaged 23.19PPG. Minus the 2PPG from a 50% reduction in rushing stats. McNabb would have averaged 21.19PPG. Drew Brees averaged 19.86PPGHere's the problem. McNabb will get more than 25 rushes in a season. Carson Palmer had 26 rushes last season and he has NEVER been a running QB. I don't think McNabb will rush less than Palmer who was coming of an ACL tear as well (plus McNabb has had an additional 2 month more of rehab).

Do you get points from qb rushes or yardage? Or are you assuming his YPC will remain the same despite limited mobility. Not to mention it is not a stretch to think that his lack of mobility could also have a negative effect on his overall passing totals. Couple the fact that he's 8mths removed from majory surgery, with the spector of more balanced play calling, a defense that has improved on paper and the uncertain status of his best lineman & tight end & he's no higher than 3 on my board.

From yardage. Ok. I'll play along even further. Removing ALL OF McNabbs rushing totals from last season he would have averaged 19.27 PPG from passing totals alone. Good for #3 behind Manning and Brees.Now let me ask you this. Do you think Drew Brees, who threw for 4400 yards last season will improve? In the last 50 years only 20 times has a QB thrown for 4400 yards. Only Warren Moon and Dan Fouts have come back the following season and improved (and Moon only improved by 1 yard). So the other 15 times (still waiting to see what Brees does this year) the QBs who have thrown for 4400+ yards have come back the following season to throw less yards than the season in which they hit 4400+ yards.Some examples:Marino threw for 5084 yards, the following season 4137. 4746, the following season 3245. 4434, the following season 3997.Manning threw for 4413, the following season 4131. Then he threw for 4557, the following season 3747.Favre threw for 4413, the following season 3899.I think it's a safe bet that Brees will AT BEST throw for something like 4000-4100 yards. And that's at best. I wouldn't be surprised to see something in the neighborhood of 3800-3900 yards this year from him.

I like his chances of finishing the season with more fantasy points than McNabb. I have given you the reasons (of which rushing yards are a component) I think work against McNabb. I think Brees will have more attempts and doesn't present the injury risk. McNabb may have a higher upside, which is debatable, but is the far more risky proposition I.M.O.

 

[Men-in-Cleats]

While McNabb has been one of the top QB's in ppg for several years, he just cannot stay healthy. It's great that he goes great guns out of the gate and gets you in good position for the playoffs, but it would be better if he could take you all the way to the title. Two years ago I had him in my main league and was able to withstand his missed games with the help of a good backup and win the title but last year I dominated the first half of the season before he went down and then fizzled afteer that (although he was only part of the problem in that I lost Kevin Jones as well). Also, Donovan is sort of hot and cold as a QB in that some games he looks completely unstoppable and others look like he couldn't hit the broad side of a barn. Luckily for fantasy owners, in the latter type of games he still gets enough attempts in there that he will hit a bomb or two in a losing effort but it is certainly less than ideal for his team.

On the topic, however, I have Palmer after Brady and Brees with the line issues and with missing Henry for the first 8 games. I just think that Brady is in line for a great season and has the weapons in the passing game to really cut loose this year.

 

[burd]

with Cincy playing SF on the road in week 15 and Cleveland at home in week 16, Palmer may be a preferable choice (or equal) to Manning simply because he's got two very favorable matchups during the all important playoff weeks. i'm hoping to land Palmer or one of the Johnsons

 

[kensat30]

I have Palmer right up there with Manning. If you are absolutely die-hard on getting a "stud" QB I would go for Palmer. 3rd round price seems appropriate. Personally, I would start looking at Palmer in the 4th round.

 

[jurb26]

Probably covered by others in here (didn't read the whole thread), but no. I think Brady and Brees are both better fantasy options this year.