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Is Portis a dynasty 1st round pick anymore (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter KellysHeroes
- Start date
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
I think Portis is to good to fall out of the top 10 whether he is sharing carries or not he will find ways to produce. In dynasty I think it is ok if he is sharing carries a little anyways to protect his playing career. He will still put up RB 1 numbers even if he sharing the rock a bit.
Portis should still get 18-20 carries a game give or take.
And Betts 7-8 carries a game give or take.
Portis should still get 18-20 carries a game give or take.
And Betts 7-8 carries a game give or take.
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
Need another option: "no, became overrated once he left Denver"
A #11 and a #6 finish is overrated?
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
It is when people are putting him in their top 5. Also, in each of those seasons, he carried the ball 350 times, he wont be doing that anymore.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Damb I was hoping more people were voting that he is overrated to signal this might be a GREAT time to buy low on Portis.
Unfortunitly that is not the case.
Please keep trying.
Unfortunitly that is not the case.
Please keep trying.
By this logic LT was overrated because he was consensus rated the #1 preseason pick in '04 and '05 but only finished #3. Call me crazy, but if a guy I have in the preseason top 5 finishes #6, I'm pretty content with his performance.
crush304
Footballguy
he's 25 years old, top 5
LT
LJ
Steven Jackson
Bush
Clinton
who else are you going to take above him, there is nobody else out there how has show that much, is that young and in a better situation. up until he got hurt last year he was on a pace only matched by players in the hall of fame
LT
LJ
Steven Jackson
Bush
Clinton
who else are you going to take above him, there is nobody else out there how has show that much, is that young and in a better situation. up until he got hurt last year he was on a pace only matched by players in the hall of fame
nygiants56
Footballguy
averages just 4.0 per carry in Washington. 
Robbie Cooper
Footballguy
Dynasty or Keeper league? Gore.
yellowdog
Footballguy
TheLastDispatch
Footballguy
imo, this year in washington = KC two years ago. 2/3 split between portis and betts, similar to priest/lj. Betts is just too good to keep on the bench.
phthalatemagic
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Damb I cannot spell. Who says words should be spelled how they sound anyways?
I am sure you guys did not understand what I meant.
No soup for you.
I am sure you guys did not understand what I meant.
No soup for you.
Couch Potato
Footballguy
No, you can't. I've seen some doozies out of you that made me laugh, Bia my friend.I'd tell you what they were, but you may not "apprechiate" it.
As for Portis, yes, top-10 in my book. His value shouldn't "deprechiate"
due to last year.
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KellysHeroes
Footballguy
Isn't Betts like 2 to 3 yrs older than Portis.. so I don't think its the young stud looking to take over... its more like the older vet trying to make a name for himself.I can see Betts getting about 10 carries a game; inbetween the 40s..
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Thanks Emily Post tater.You guys keep teaching me how to spell and I might get bored and do some graffiti in the hall instead of talk foosball.No, you can't. I've seen some doozies out of you that made me laugh, Bia my friend.I'd tell you what they were, but you may not "apprechiate" it.
As for Portis, yes, top-10 in my book. His value shouldn't "deprechiate"due to last year.
Couch Potato
Footballguy
Thanks Emily Post tater.You guys keep teaching me how to spell and I might get bored and do some graffiti in the hall instead of talk foosball.No, you can't. I've seen some doozies out of you that made me laugh, Bia my friend.I'd tell you what they were, but you may not "apprechiate" it.
As for Portis, yes, top-10 in my book. His value shouldn't "deprechiate"due to last year.
One more thing concerning Portis. The fear of losing carries to Betts is overblown. A fresher Portis will be more likely to tear off those big gainers / long TDs than if he were getting all the carries. I wouldn't let the presence of Betts worry me.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
I don't think you can ever get enough "p" 
SSOG
Moderator
You beat me to it. In my opinion, any time an RB taken in the first round finishes in the top 10, then he was a very successful pick. Maybe not wildly successful, but VERY successful. Half of first-round RBs usually don't even crack the top 20.
Also, speaking dynasty, while Betts sharing touches might hurt Portis's value short-term, it definitely boosts it long-term. If I were a dynasty owner of Larry Johnson, I sure would have liked to see Herm Edwards take away some of HIS touches last season.Thanks Emily Post tater.You guys keep teaching me how to spell and I might get bored and do some graffiti in the hall instead of talk foosball.No, you can't. I've seen some doozies out of you that made me laugh, Bia my friend.I'd tell you what they were, but you may not "apprechiate" it.
As for Portis, yes, top-10 in my book. His value shouldn't "deprechiate"due to last year.
wolfie
Footballguy
6th or 7th rb in my dynasty rankings, have LT, LJ, SJax, Westy, & Gore ahead of him. Can't decide if Bush is before or after him. Who else would you take over him? He'll lose a few carries to Betts, but that's happening to most rbs in the NFL. The demise of Portis is greatly overstated, Portis is a game breaker.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
W/ out sharing w/ Betts; Portis' career would be done at 28 or 29
W/ Betts; Portis' career will be over at 30 or 31
W/ Betts; Portis' career will be over at 30 or 31
Banger
Footballguy
I can't see picking Portis outside of the top 8. To me for dynasty it has to be: LT, Sjax, LJ, Gore, Bush, Westy, Portis, Parker, Addai, Maroney, MJD. In an initial dynasty draft you have to draft a RB younger than 27 because RB's are so hard to come by and if you don't get a YOUNG RB now, you are in big trouble. Especially in a 14 team league.
On the other hand, yes Betts is good but I don't see him getting more than 8-10 carries a game, leaving portis with around 20 or so.
So IMO Portis is still a top 8 pick.
On the other hand, yes Betts is good but I don't see him getting more than 8-10 carries a game, leaving portis with around 20 or so.
So IMO Portis is still a top 8 pick.
redman
Footballguy
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
LJ is done in 2 yrs at his ratewhat does you're crystal ball about when LJ will be done?
dgreen
Footballguy
Portis was 10th in PPG last year. And, he did that only playing in about half of the season opener against Minnesota and leaving in the first quarter against Philly.
Portis has finished 4th, 5th, 11th, and 6th amongst RBs his first four seasons and was 10th in PPG last year. He'll turn 26 just before the start of this season. He's extremely talented and tough, has a track record of success, is loved by his coaches and teammates, and should have a few more years remaining before his body slows down. How's he not a first round pick?
Portis has finished 4th, 5th, 11th, and 6th amongst RBs his first four seasons and was 10th in PPG last year. He'll turn 26 just before the start of this season. He's extremely talented and tough, has a track record of success, is loved by his coaches and teammates, and should have a few more years remaining before his body slows down. How's he not a first round pick?
Banger
Footballguy
didn't he have a bum shoulder to boot the entire year?
dgreen
Footballguy
Yeah, that too. I don't remember seeing a player take as much of a beating on a regular basis as Portis did last year. It seemed like every game he was horsecollared, bent backwards, or kneed in the groin. Yet, he played through it all. They finally put him down for the year with the broken hand and fading playoff hopes.
redman
Footballguy
The Redskins' playoff hopes weren't "fading" last year. By the time Portis broke his hand, those playoff hopes were getting snorted by Keith Richards.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
He fell to me at #11.. I had to choose between Him and Manning.. I'm drink the Portis Kool-Aid
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
I would take about half that
Buck...the question wasn't "has Portis deserved to be a top 10 pick"--he hasthe question was "is he still a top 10 dynasty pick"--he isn't...at least on my board
I had a high regard for Portis going into last season, but the combination of injury and Betts re-upping for several seasons had me move Portis out of my top 10, as I'd rather have Bush, Maroney, Addai or several other young backs
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
In a recent study done by myself and Driver we found that Rbs in thier 2nd year had the least success of thier careers on average. The numbers were pretty startling actualy. So you might want to reconsider ranking the 2nd year Rbs so highly from a value perspective.
The 3rd through 5th years are where the money is. Benson Caddy Ronnie Brown.. one of these guys if not more than one of them will likely have a explosive season based off of past trends.
And I hope more people doubt Portis. I would really like to be able to trade for him.
The 3rd through 5th years are where the money is. Benson Caddy Ronnie Brown.. one of these guys if not more than one of them will likely have a explosive season based off of past trends.
And I hope more people doubt Portis. I would really like to be able to trade for him.
wannabee
Footballguy
Bia, I wrote on this last summer. In fact, since 1999, half of the Rbs that were NFL 1st or 2nd rounders and chosen in top 25 of fantasy drafts before the 2nd year, busted ... and most big time. In fact, the angle I looked at last summer was in terms of value. Think about each of the last few years for dynasty. This past year Caddy and Brown were top 10 picks and did not produce. The year before, it was Julius and KJ that were overvalued. This now means that half of the six sophomore RBs that will be drafted in top 25 RBs (bush, addai, maroney, Dwill, Drew, and White) will BUST big this coming year.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I would love to see a link to this study bee if it is still available? Driver and I looked at all Rbs drafted in the 1st 3 rounds. It is in the dynasty value/projection thread here: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...=296123&hl=
I would love to compare notes with your study and sorry that I did not see it before bee
Not that the 2nd year is the end all be all for a Rb in a dynasty league. It's not. But when drafting for the 1st year and understanding how it will impact team success this year as well as in future trading/value I think you have to take this into consideration.
Years 3-5 are the years where Rbs make thier money based off of past history and player like this can be traded for at a discount if they struggle in thier 2nd season. Such as Benson, Caddy and Brown right now.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
DWill really won't be a FF bust since hes usually taken at RB20; White is even lower.I would Vote for Drew as a 1st round Bust in FF; and Bush isn't going to do too mush better this yr than he did last yr. The other 2 are on solid teams and would only bust if they or their QBs get injuried.
wannabee
Footballguy
My take is that the RBs going into the 2nd year are overvalued. In addition to the article from last year, here is some new data I found:Since 1999, 16 RBs were drafted in first two rounds of NFL and in top 25 RBs before the 2nd year. Of these, only 4 outprodeced theor ADP by more than 10%. Half (8), were flat out busts. I am working on something on this subject and will post more when I can. But, below is the post from last yr.I would love to see a link to this study bee if it is still available? Driver and I looked at all Rbs drafted in the 1st 3 rounds. It is in the dynasty value/projection thread here: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...=296123&hl=
I would love to compare notes with your study and sorry that I did not see it before bee
Not that the 2nd year is the end all be all for a Rb in a dynasty league. It's not. But when drafting for the 1st year and understanding how it will impact team success this year as well as in future trading/value I think you have to take this into consideration.
Years 3-5 are the years where Rbs make thier money based off of past history and player like this can be traded for at a discount if they struggle in thier 2nd season. Such as Benson, Caddy and Brown right now.
Wannabee thread, post 55.
I had some follow up thoughts to this:
a. It seems that after the rookie RBs second year in the league, his value tens to recede. I think I know why. HYPE! Rookie RBs seldem start 16 games and almost always look great in the limited action they get. They usually have somewhat of an incumbant RB that splits time with them for one year. During this limited action, the rookie RB looks fresh and like he has tons of potential. Sometimes, though, a rookie will start from day one, show flashes of greatness, but still have numbers equal to many other veteran RBs .... but still be valued more in offseason after rookie year. Let's look at a few examples:
1. Ronnie Brown. He split time with Ricky Williams and had similar numbers as Ricky. Brown was drafted in the 30s overall picks before rookie season. Even if Ricky was still with the 'fins, Brown would be drafted around pick 25. Why? He has shown flashes in limited duty and Ricky cannot last forever.
2. Caddy Williams. He played most all of the season and flashed greatness, but ended up with numbers similar (or worse) to many veteran backs. But, thisoffseason, Caddy is being drafted over many of those veterans even though many are still young and have less issues than Caddy.
3. Ced Benson. Even with playing very little last year, he is being drafted the same, or before, where he was drafted last year. Think about it. He has proven nothing. Benson is being drafted about the same as DeAngelo Williams and Maroney.
Now, to the conclusion. I think the value of the vast majority of these rookie RBs peaks after their second year. Why? The flashes of greatness, and potential, is proven right or wrong in another full year. By this time, the rookie RB usually has been given the full load and everything is known. Let's look at Kevin Jones for a moment. Prior to his rookie season, he was drafted in the 30s, or before, just like most rookie RBs. He finished strong and flashed potential in the last half of the season. Where was he drafted this time last year? First round, or early second at the latest. Why? Potential greatness. Now, a year later, where is his value (after the second season)? His value is back down and a little higher than where it was when he was a rookie. The same is true for Julius.
In current initial dynasty drafts, Caddy and Brown are going top 10 overall. There is very little room for their value to go up and a lot of room for their value to go down. In rare instances, with very talented RBs, the value will continue to rise, but you only have one of those type RBs every few years and you know they are special very early on.
Summary: The value of most top rookie RBs peaks the offseason after the rookie season. I am referring to the DeAngelo Williamses and Maroneyes of the world, not Reggie Bushes. The time to trade them away is after the rookie season, unless they are a LT.
Caveats: Many rookie RBs are drafted into a situation behind a veteran RB that excels for a few years. I think of Perry or LJ. I would still argue that their value after their rookie season was as high as it was before their rookie season, just as with Benson. Injuries do not apply to this situation. But, with Perry and LJ, their values went down after their 2nd season in the league because it became apparent that they were stuck in a situation as a backup until the starter was injured. But, by that time, they were drafted similarly to other backups.
Thoughts? This is just me thinking outloud, and expanding on it, as I develop further this idea/theory.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Good info here.
I still have him in my top 10, but no longer in the top 5. Some of the 2nd year, younger backs I like, others seem like huge risks to me. I tend to generally be more risk adverse when drafting my 1st round RB's, but I don't fault other people who like those 2nd year guys this year.I was more responding to the previous poster that said Portis was overrated the last 3 seasons once he left Denver. While his ypc could improve, I think he performed pretty dang admirably in those seasons and was well worth a top 5 pick back then. He's still easily a 1st round pick for me even with the emergence of Betts and the injury cloud hanging over him.
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