Is targeting all 3 Redskins RBs crazy? (1 Viewer)

[donkeyb]

After listing to Bloom in the preseason watch list for the Redskins I got to thinking about trying to monopolize the Skins backfield. I think it would be hard to do in a draft because you could always get sniped, but I have a dynasty start up auction coming up and thought this strategy would be viable.

I really think Washington will have a top 5 run game this year with the fear RGIII will put into Def coordinators. Plus I remember reading somewhere that Shanahan doesn't really do RBBC during games. Its more of a game-by-game basis type thing. So you would a least know who to start on week-to-week basis for FF purposes. Is this true about Shanahan or did I misread that?

I think I can get Helu for really cheap, knowing most of my league mates are not fans of the Washington RB situation. I'm sure I could get Hightower and Royster for $1 once people run out of money. I will save $3 for each just in case. This way I think I can get a very cheap solid RB2 "committee" with RB1 upside. Plus there is the added benefit that Helu or Royster could provide value for years to come in dynasty formats.

So what do you guys think about targeting all 3 in my dynasty auction?

 

[Shawn]

I thought about doing this last year but ended up going crazy. Lucifer Shanahan can not be trusted and he may say 1 RB is starting then decide the day of that a different one should be the go to guy. if you can predict his moods go for it, if not steer clear!

 

[donkeyb]

I thought about doing this last year but ended up going crazy. Lucifer Shanahan can not be trusted and he may say 1 RB is starting then decide the day of that a different one should be the go to guy. if you can predict his moods go for it, if not steer clear!

Do you usually know by game time? Or does he decide after line ups lock?

 

[VaTerp]

Owning Royster and Helu is not a bad idea if you can get them both for relative value.

Personally, I would not roster Hightower. I know there is talk of him still being the starter but he's coming off major knee surgery and was the least effective of the 3 in the regular season last year. In fact I wouldnt be surprised if rookie Alfred Morris either makes the team or comes off of the practice squad late in the year and gets some time at THT's expense.

Rostering all 3 would be a waste of at least one roster spot IMO.

 

[Raider Nation]

I wouldn't bother unless it's Best Ball format. Even if you know who is "starting" ... The Rat will still go with the hot hand.

Pass.

 

[donkeyb]

Owning Royster and Helu is not a bad idea if you can get them both for relative value.Personally, I would not roster Hightower. I know there is talk of him still being the starter but he's coming off major knee surgery and was the least effective of the 3 in the regular season last year. In fact I wouldnt be surprised if rookie Alfred Morris either makes the team or comes off of the practice squad late in the year and gets some time at THT's expense.Rostering all 3 would be a waste of at least one roster spot IMO.

So with 15 bench spots thats too big of a waste? Personally I have no idea. I'm new to dynasty and just thought this could be a sneaky play.

I wouldn't bother unless it's Best Ball format. Even if you know who is "starting" ... The Rat will still go with the hot hand.Pass.

H2H scoring

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

let us know if you do this so I can grab morris

 

[VaTerp]

Owning Royster and Helu is not a bad idea if you can get them both for relative value.Personally, I would not roster Hightower. I know there is talk of him still being the starter but he's coming off major knee surgery and was the least effective of the 3 in the regular season last year. In fact I wouldnt be surprised if rookie Alfred Morris either makes the team or comes off of the practice squad late in the year and gets some time at THT's expense.Rostering all 3 would be a waste of at least one roster spot IMO.

So with 15 bench spots thats too big of a waste? Personally I have no idea. I'm new to dynasty and just thought this could be a sneaky play.

I wouldn't bother unless it's Best Ball format. Even if you know who is "starting" ... The Rat will still go with the hot hand.Pass.

H2H scoring

15 bench spots is a lot. But in dynasty I would Definitely not use a roster space on Hightower. If you can get both cheap I don't think Helu and Royster is a bad idea. See what happens and grab Morris later in the year if neither of those two emerge.

 

[ShaHBucks]

I normally don't touch a Shananhan or Belicheck backfield unless it's off waivers. You can ride guys like BJGE, Woodhead, Tourain, Royster in the past when the timing is right. Only advice I could give is watch the preseason closely.

 

[Kenny Powers]

at drafting all the RBs of a skeletor backfield

 

[Raider Nation]

at drafting all the RBs of a skeletor backfield

People remember the dominance of Terrell Davis under Shanny and keep waiting for a repeat. Well keep waiting.

Shanahan has not had a single running back exceed 750 yards rushing or five rushing touchdowns in four straight seasons. You have to go back to Tatum Bell in 2006 to find the last 1,000-yard rusher for a Shanahan team.

Perhaps even more shocking is that Shanahan has not coached a Top-24 running back since 2005, when Mike Anderson ranked 10th and Bell was 22nd.

 

[redbullz]

royster is the guy to get and hes probably the cheapest

 

[ShaHBucks]

royster is the guy to get and hes probably the cheapest

Yea until the Starting FB Darrell Young rushes for 143 yards and 3 TDs

 

[gianthater]

Royster didn;t look so good to me tonight. i know it's just one rpeseason game, but the guy isn't very dynamic.

 

[griff321]

It's a terrible idea. Take it from someone who has done this a few times, after a few weeks Shanahanigans will have you ready to pull your hair out. I'm at the point now where I will never touch another Shanahan RB ever again. You'll likely have an idea who is going to start based on mid-week practice reports, but then a few ineffective carries into the game and the starter is on the bench watching some fifth stringer rack up yards. Then when you have injuries, even mild ones that only cause a guy to miss a few practices, he will play numerous games with the media. Point is their is zero logical way to accurately predict which RB will score the most points on a week to week basis. You may get lucky a few weeks, but in the end it'll always burn you when you need the points the most.

 

[Run It Up]

Is targeting all 3 Redskins RBs crazy?

Yes

 

[Warhogs]

I side with the crazy idea theory. I don't want to tie up that many roster spots in trying to find a RB (especially in a Shanahan system).

 

[Banger]

Grabbed Hightower last year and got a good couple weeks out of him and then Shannanigans took over. The way he interchangibly changes RBs is maddening and unless one looks CLEARLY above the others I won't touch anyone. Right now they all taste like chicken which equals headaches and non-stop rotation.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Dynasty-wise I have no interest in any of them -- don't trust any of them to stay relevant over the long haul.

In redrafts, I agree that RGIII should open things up a bit, but three roster spots is a lot to tie up for possible RB2 production (and the headache that comes with reading the tea leaves to figure out who is featured from week to week).

 

[Matt Bitonti]

In fact I wouldnt be surprised if rookie Alfred Morris either makes the team or comes off of the practice squad late in the year and gets some time at THT's expense.

agreed, there's no sense in predicting the Shanahan rotation. Stay clear. You could own all 3 and then Morris gets the production. how to predict it? do you really want to be playing RB roulette on Sunday mornings?

 

[Captain Hook]

After listing to Bloom in the preseason watch list for the Redskins I got to thinking about trying to monopolize the Skins backfield. I think it would be hard to do in a draft because you could always get sniped, but I have a dynasty start up auction coming up and thought this strategy would be viable. I really think Washington will have a top 5 run game this year with the fear RGIII will put into Def coordinators. Plus I remember reading somewhere that Shanahan doesn't really do RBBC during games. Its more of a game-by-game basis type thing. So you would a least know who to start on week-to-week basis for FF purposes. Is this true about Shanahan or did I misread that? I think I can get Helu for really cheap, knowing most of my league mates are not fans of the Washington RB situation. I'm sure I could get Hightower and Royster for $1 once people run out of money. I will save $3 for each just in case. This way I think I can get a very cheap solid RB2 "committee" with RB1 upside. Plus there is the added benefit that Helu or Royster could provide value for years to come in dynasty formats. So what do you guys think about targeting all 3 in my dynasty auction?

I think first you have never rostered a back that played for Shanahan (at least after Terrel Davis)The frustration of trying to figure out who is going to play will drive you nutsSecond you must have huge rosters to consider wasting three spots for one guy to (hopefully) play each week - and no chance you get it right every week - even after the first injuryOnly type of league where it would remotely make sense is draft and hold (best ball) league with large rosters

 

[chickensoup]

I agree with the insanity thing. I generally steer clear unless there is a really good value to be had (generally Helu). In a dynasty startup I did he slipped to the 8th round so i felt obliged to take him as my 4th RB.

Here is why it's a bad idea. last year this is the leading rusher for the team in order by week:

Hightower, Hightower, Hightower, Torain, Torain, Hightower, Torain, Helu, Helu, Helu, Helu, Helu, Helu, Helu, Royster, Royster.

the middle of the season was the worst part. Hightower, to torain 2 games, to hightower, to torain, to helu. some of those were seen coming, but some were not. If i remember right the torain starting was a complete suprise to everyone and he was a hot waiver wire pickup, played one game where he stunk, then hightower came back and torain was toast. after posting 12 yards rushing.

do you really want to be the guy trying to figure that mess out? I don't. I'll take one of them (Helu or Royster) and if injuries occur or you know he is starting for other reasons then he will be great. Helu is also an excellent pass catcher so he has that going for him as well. But I'll only take him if he slips enough where the headache and uncertainty are worthwhile.

 

[coolnerd]

If there was for some reason that you liked more than another (not sure why at this point) or one them falls really late I can see that, but three in any running game is not worth it. Spread those darts out Kevin smith, ryan williams, donald brown types if you are trying to get lucky mid to late.

 

[Mello]

Psycho. And if you're not already crazy now you will be after a season of guessing which, if any, of your RBs will have a good day.

 

[massraider]

Were you sitting around thinking, 'Hmmm, you know what would be nice? A bleeding ulcer. Wish I had one. Wonder how I can get one?'

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Yeah, I'm thinking of going with all three of Selvin Young, Olandis Gary and Otis Teaberry from Montana State....

Oh man, this sounds like Denver again. I say go with Royster or Helu, period (and I like Helu better). But after what happened with Helu getting worn down real fast last year I'm guessing Shan doesn't rely on any one back yet again this year. (So, none).

 

[Instinctive]

at drafting all the RBs of a skeletor backfield

People remember the dominance of Terrell Davis under Shanny and keep waiting for a repeat. Well keep waiting.

Shanahan has not had a single running back exceed 750 yards rushing or five rushing touchdowns in four straight seasons. You have to go back to Tatum Bell in 2006 to find the last 1,000-yard rusher for a Shanahan team.

Perhaps even more shocking is that Shanahan has not coached a Top-24 running back since 2005, when Mike Anderson ranked 10th and Bell was 22nd.

Let's take a look real quick and see if any of his RBs have played enough games to realistically reach 1000 yards, or if they keep getting injured....

 

[netnalp]

The 'Skins have one of, if not the worst group of RBs in the league. All are waiver wire fodder. I wouldn't waste a spot on any of them. I think I'd be better off using the roster spot for a WR sleeper.

 

[SelenaCat]

Think of it this way: Even if the starter was a guaranteed lock for RB1 numbers, and you actually could know ahead of time which was going to get played, you're still using three roster slots, two of whom you know will *not* provide you with usable numbers. Instead, I'd rather take three players who might have the same chance of upside, even if not RB1 numbers, and give myself the chance that two or even three might hit. Winning a fantasy league requires a few bold picks, not just "safe" ones. And consider that even the top RB on the team is probably not going to get RB1 numbers, even in a Shannahan offense.

I think Helu is a decent play, but also around his ADP/cost are players like BJGE, Redman, Ridley, Spiller or Hillis. BJGE is at least a "starter" (if in RBBC), Redman will have starter numbers for a good part of the season, Ridley is pretty much on par with Helu in terms of upside/likelyhood each week to put up good numbers, and Spiller and Hillis have much bigger upsides, though lower floors.

Likewise, rather than taking Hightower and Royster, you could also be picking up players with a lot more upside like Jonathan Dwyer, Montario Hardesty, or Bilal Powell -- three players that have as much of a chance to "hit it big" as your two Redskins. And if they fail, well, you were already counting on two out of the three roster spots to fail anyhow.

 

[Warrior]

Good luck starting the right one. "Helu will be the bellcow" followed by 0 carries for 0 yards when Shanny switches things up at gametime and Royster goes off for 200 yards on your bench.

 

[fatness]

Owning Royster and Helu is not a bad idea if you can get them both for relative value.Personally, I would not roster Hightower.

I agree with this, unless your roster size is small. Then I'd take a shot at either Royster or Helu.

 

[Biabreakable]

Don't play games with Skeletor, you will lose.

 

[Donnybrook]

The only one I would consider drafting at there ADP is Alfred Morris.

 

[Tigerbot Hesh]

Don't play games with Skeletor, you will lose.

Just when you think you have the market cornered on Washington RBs, they will sign a street FA and start him for a week or two.

 

[donkeyb]

Think of it this way: Even if the starter was a guaranteed lock for RB1 numbers, and you actually could know ahead of time which was going to get played, you're still using three roster slots, two of whom you know will *not* provide you with usable numbers. Instead, I'd rather take three players who might have the same chance of upside, even if not RB1 numbers, and give myself the chance that two or even three might hit. Winning a fantasy league requires a few bold picks, not just "safe" ones. And consider that even the top RB on the team is probably not going to get RB1 numbers, even in a Shannahan offense.

I think Helu is a decent play, but also around his ADP/cost are players like BJGE, Redman, Ridley, Spiller or Hillis. BJGE is at least a "starter" (if in RBBC), Redman will have starter numbers for a good part of the season, Ridley is pretty much on par with Helu in terms of upside/likelyhood each week to put up good numbers, and Spiller and Hillis have much bigger upsides, though lower floors.

Likewise, rather than taking Hightower and Royster, you could also be picking up players with a lot more upside like Jonathan Dwyer, Montario Hardesty, or Bilal Powell -- three players that have as much of a chance to "hit it big" as your two Redskins. And if they fail, well, you were already counting on two out of the three roster spots to fail anyhow.

Great point. Its probably smarter to have the chance to hit home runs with 2 to 3 rosters spots instead of locking in 2 dead weight spots.

 

[Chazzhawk]

Yes it is insane, the only back to own in that backfield is Royster. Draft him late, wait until he has the hot hand for a game or two and trade him to the Roy Helu owner in your league that is panicking, because Helu only touched the ball 12 times or so in the same time period that Royster was the hot hand.

 

[Abspara]

So what do you guys think about targeting all 3 in my dynasty auction?

I think that's a waste of 3 roster spots. I'd rather spend those on better options. It's not worth the headache or disappointment trying to understand who may start on a weekly basis.

 

[voiceofunreason]

Owning Royster and Helu is not a bad idea if you can get them both for relative value.Personally, I would not roster Hightower.

I agree with this, unless your roster size is small. Then I'd take a shot at either Royster or Helu.

I'd agree with that as well. Hightower has no value.

 

[Raider Nation]

Make it 4.

Coach Mike Shanahan came away impressed with rookie RB Alfred Morris' 54 yards on 15 carries in the preseason opener."You can see he's got good running skills and he's got that forward lean," Shanahan said. "He's got good instincts. It's going to be fun to see him over the next three games." Knowing Shanahan's fickle history, beat writers have been careful not to rule Morris out of the tailback mix. SI.com's Peter King tweeted last week that Morris is a "solid darkhorse" for the starting job. We don't share King's level of optimism on the speed-challenged rookie.

 

[Sitch]

I just flipped Royster for DHB...other owner has Helu and Hightower.

 

[DoubleG]

at drafting all the RBs of a skeletor backfield

[/thread]I tried this once. I still have nightmares and should probably go for counseling.

 

[FF Ninja]

So what do you guys think about targeting all 3 in my dynasty auction?

I think that's a waste of 3 roster spots. I'd rather spend those on better options. It's not worth the headache or disappointment trying to understand who may start on a weekly basis.

This. Unless you have 22+ roster spots you can't tie up 3 spots for 1 position which might have a new starter in 2013. Unless you are a really bad drafter in which case you wouldn't be using those spots very well anyway...

 

[ldizzle]

Who would have thought Alfred would have stuck this long? Could have came away with a really good rb at low cost...

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Who would have thought Alfred would have stuck this long? Could have came away with a really good rb at low cost...

Funny though morris appears nowhere In the op, and only donnybrook even mentioned him I the thread once.

 

[BRONG]

The only one I would consider drafting at there ADP is Alfred Morris.

 

[Raider Nation]

Who would have thought Alfred would have stuck this long? Could have came away with a really good rb at low cost...

Funny though morris appears nowhere In the op, and only donnybrook even mentioned him I the thread once.

 

[flc735]

Who would have thought Alfred would have stuck this long? Could have came away with a really good rb at low cost...

Funny though morris appears nowhere In the op, and only donnybrook even mentioned him I the thread once.

the post was made before alf was on the map. if you went that far and grabbed the first 3, common sense would have told you to pick up alfred once he started getting pt.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Who would have thought Alfred would have stuck this long? Could have came away with a really good rb at low cost...

Funny though morris appears nowhere In the op, and only donnybrook even mentioned him I the thread once.

the post was made before alf was on the map. if you went that far and grabbed the first 3, common sense would have told you to pick up alfred once he started getting pt.

a lot of people drafted. in dynos someone else already ad morris while you aquired the 3 short straw rbs.It was still mid august. well after but it also illustrates why rostering the whole backfield in a shanny controlled team is generally a lossing proposition and an emotional nightmare.

 

[flc735]

Who would have thought Alfred would have stuck this long? Could have came away with a really good rb at low cost...

Funny though morris appears nowhere In the op, and only donnybrook even mentioned him I the thread once.

the post was made before alf was on the map. if you went that far and grabbed the first 3, common sense would have told you to pick up alfred once he started getting pt.

a lot of people drafted. in dynos someone else already ad morris while you aquired the 3 short straw rbs.It was still mid august. well after but it also illustrates why rostering the whole backfield in a shanny controlled team is generally a lossing proposition and an emotional nightmare.

ok ya, thats true. still though, any of the 4 could and would be in the same situation (imo). i always thought that was shanny's goal, to find a bell cow. we have the answer now but at the time, i think a 25% chance at landing the "alfred morris" was well worth the price

 

[Biabreakable]

Who would have thought Alfred would have stuck this long? Could have came away with a really good rb at low cost...

Funny though morris appears nowhere In the op, and only donnybrook even mentioned him I the thread once.

the post was made before alf was on the map. if you went that far and grabbed the first 3, common sense would have told you to pick up alfred once he started getting pt.

a lot of people drafted. in dynos someone else already ad morris while you aquired the 3 short straw rbs.It was still mid august. well after but it also illustrates why rostering the whole backfield in a shanny controlled team is generally a lossing proposition and an emotional nightmare.

ok ya, thats true. still though, any of the 4 could and would be in the same situation (imo). i always thought that was shanny's goal, to find a bell cow. we have the answer now but at the time, i think a 25% chance at landing the "alfred morris" was well worth the price

This really depends on the size of your roster. It would have taken at least 4 roster spots to have a decent chance at the Skeletor RB. If you have 26 or more roster slots? Sure maybe monopolizing the backfield would be alright but any less than that you are burning too much space without any real guarantee that any of them would be startable. Now in hindsight it looks more like the lottery, but none of the above was still an option going in and could still be on the horizon.The reason I would engage in this head ache year after year is mainly because I know what a RB can do in this system and it is good enough to beat you. So I see taking these RB's as more of a blocking move than something I have much long term confidence about being reliable enough to be useful for me. Morris owners should be very happy right now but I would still be waiting for that other shoe to drop.