AtomicDogg97
Footballguy
Do you guys think Tom Brady will be worth a top 5 pick next year in fantasy drafts assuming nothing changes in New England regarding their personnel?
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Is Tom Brady a top 5 pick next year in fantasy drafts? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter AtomicDogg97
- Start date
Steelnation
Footballguy
depends on your scoring system
in my league
YES
in my league
YES
lord_helmet
Footballguy
Probably, Manning was going in the top 5 in many drafts after his career year.
massraider
Footballguy
Absolutely.
PranksterJD
Footballguy
I took Peyton with the #4 the year after his record season. Took some serious work to compensate with the lack of a star RB.
If I was drafting for **this** year, right now, then of course he is, but I don't really expect the first round RB problems of 2007 to continue into 2008, so I still think he's a late round 1st at best in most formats.
If I was drafting for **this** year, right now, then of course he is, but I don't really expect the first round RB problems of 2007 to continue into 2008, so I still think he's a late round 1st at best in most formats.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
I wont be drafting him high in any league.
zamboni
Footballguy
He'll probably wind up being drafted that high, but I'd beware of regression to the mean.
He's clearly turned the corner from being a great NFL/mediocre fantasy QB to a great NFL AND fantasy QB, but we saw what happened to Manning's numbers after his record year.
All it takes is a greater dedication to the running game to impair the QB stats.
He's clearly turned the corner from being a great NFL/mediocre fantasy QB to a great NFL AND fantasy QB, but we saw what happened to Manning's numbers after his record year.
All it takes is a greater dedication to the running game to impair the QB stats.
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Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
He's a definite first rounder. Whether it's high in the first round depends on your league setup and the draft tendencies of the owners in it.
If Moss is back, Brady might very well justify a mid first-round pick. If Moss is not back, he probably won't.
If Moss is back, Brady might very well justify a mid first-round pick. If Moss is not back, he probably won't.
dgreen
Footballguy
My guess is Brady will not do next year what he does this year. He'll be drafted next year by people too focused on 2007. Some will project him to throw 40 TDs and he likely won't get there.So, yes, someone will draft him really high. And, it will probably be a mistake.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
A bit off topic, but Brady owners should root for Indy to beat them in week 9.
Meanwhile, as a Manning owner, I want the Pats to win. We have the dreaded Week 17 championship game, and I'm afraid that the winning QB in this game will have very little to play for in the final week, and the starter will almost certainly see less than a half of action.
Meanwhile, as a Manning owner, I want the Pats to win. We have the dreaded Week 17 championship game, and I'm afraid that the winning QB in this game will have very little to play for in the final week, and the starter will almost certainly see less than a half of action.
massraider
Footballguy
Because he isn't under contract for next year?
TommyGilmore
Footballguy
In 2005 people were picking Peyton Manning #1 overall (based on his record setting 2004 season). He was overvalued as the #1 although he was still a top-tier talent. The same thing will happen with Brady -- if you can get him in the 2nd round (or later) he'll hold his value. But if you draft him in the top 5 you will regret it.
Mr. Fusion
Footballguy
Even if he regresses some, he'll still be worth a first round pick. Every year I've been against picking a QB in the first round, but with nearly every stud running back putting up average numbers the rules are changing in FF. If Moss stays with the Pats next year (but who knows, they aren't known for paying big to keep their own players), I would pick Brady as high as #3.
yinzer
Footballguy
I guess (and am not sure his deal length) but he seems pretty damn happy out there and don't see why he wouldn't sign another deal for similar money
CrossEyed
Footballguy
He took a pretty big pay cut this year. I'm guessing it will take a bit more to sign him in 2008.
Challenge Everything
Footballguy
In leagues that require two running backs to start, Brady will go in the 9-12 range of the first round.
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
Moss could very well be a first rounder too, if he stays with NE.
What if you own both?
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
The obvious risk here is that guys never repeat record breaking seasons. I'm sure people will say that Brady will be "different", but that's the same we heard for Faulk, Peyton, Priest, Alexander, LT et all.
Chances are you'll end up spending a top 5 overall pick for ~28 passing touchdowns, which would end up being putrid value.
Chances are you'll end up spending a top 5 overall pick for ~28 passing touchdowns, which would end up being putrid value.
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CalBear
Footballguy
The obvious comparison is to Manning in 2005; you could also compare to Culpepper in the same year, who actually outscored Manning in 2004 by FBG scoring. In 2004, Culpepper had 166 VBD points and Manning had 150; the #3 QB had just 82 points. Both QBs were clearly worth top-5 picks in 2004; they finished as #1 and #2 overall by VBD. (#3: Shaun Alexander).
Both QBs were drafted in the first round in 2005, Manning often in the top 5 picks. Culpepper got hurt, but was not performing very well even before that. Manning performed pretty well, finishing as the #3 QB, but had just 34 VBD points--116 less than in 2004, and #34 overall. People who drafted Manning or Culpepper in the first round got very poor value in 2005.
I am willing to bet that Brady will finish in the top 3 QBs in 2008, assuming nothing significant changes in New England. But I am willing to bet against him finishing with 150+ VBD points, which is what it would take to be worth a top-5 overall selection. He will be gone long before I am willing to pick him.
Both QBs were drafted in the first round in 2005, Manning often in the top 5 picks. Culpepper got hurt, but was not performing very well even before that. Manning performed pretty well, finishing as the #3 QB, but had just 34 VBD points--116 less than in 2004, and #34 overall. People who drafted Manning or Culpepper in the first round got very poor value in 2005.
I am willing to bet that Brady will finish in the top 3 QBs in 2008, assuming nothing significant changes in New England. But I am willing to bet against him finishing with 150+ VBD points, which is what it would take to be worth a top-5 overall selection. He will be gone long before I am willing to pick him.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
he might be, but the thing is, 99.9% of the time someone sets an NFL record, they don't come anywhere close to repeating it the following season. Look at LT2 right now. Look at LJ, Terrell Davis after the 2k+ season, same with the Jamals ( Anderson + Lewis), Manning and his 49 TDs a few years back, etc.I'd be willing to bet he'll go back to somewhere around 28-30 TD's next season..Remember, he's never thrown for MORE that 28 tds in any season.He appears to be headed for this year ( 50+?), but will find it hard to come close to those numbers in '08.
FFdork
Footballguy
If Brady continues the pace and Moss is back, he will probably go top 5.
That said, I've always maintained that championships are won by getting 2007 Brady, 2006 Brees, 2004 Manning, or 2004 Culpepper at a discount. Then you have top tier players at other positions. This year there were plenty of people who got Tomlinson round 1, Brady round 2, and Moss round 3. That's a championship.
By contrast, when you take Brady in the first, even if he performs close to the level he's playing at this year, you get much inferior talent at the other positions. Meanwhile, if Carson Palmer has a career year in 2008, some guy got him in the 3rd round, and rides that team to a championship.
That said, I've always maintained that championships are won by getting 2007 Brady, 2006 Brees, 2004 Manning, or 2004 Culpepper at a discount. Then you have top tier players at other positions. This year there were plenty of people who got Tomlinson round 1, Brady round 2, and Moss round 3. That's a championship.
By contrast, when you take Brady in the first, even if he performs close to the level he's playing at this year, you get much inferior talent at the other positions. Meanwhile, if Carson Palmer has a career year in 2008, some guy got him in the 3rd round, and rides that team to a championship.
encaitar
Footballguy
I wouldn't take Brady in the first round next year. Too much of his success relies upon a very injury-prone receiver. Look at Culpepper after his big year. Yes, with Randy he was a stud, almost unstoppable especially considering his ability to scramble if for some reason Randy wasn't open. Then, the next year Randy was dealing with ankle and hamstring problems and Culpepper was throwing toss up interceptions rather than toss up touchdowns.
Yes, injury is possible at any position, but at most positions the only injury that matters is the player himself. At QB, an injury to the WR will affect him nearly as much as an injury to himself, which(along with the fact that most leagues require 2 RBs and good ones are hard to find in round 3) is a big reason to wait on QBs until at least the second round IMHO.
Yes, injury is possible at any position, but at most positions the only injury that matters is the player himself. At QB, an injury to the WR will affect him nearly as much as an injury to himself, which(along with the fact that most leagues require 2 RBs and good ones are hard to find in round 3) is a big reason to wait on QBs until at least the second round IMHO.
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