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J Anderson, CAR LB (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Rovers
- Start date
Rovers
Footballguy
When was that? Not to make this a WDIS... but I'm looking at Pace who Norton has pretty high this week, and Anderson. TB doesn't give up a ton of points to LB's, but after TB, Carolina plays some teams that DO allow some big numbers by LB's, NE, Minny and NYG. Is Anderson a 3 down backer, at least right now? From what I've read, the CS seems to be OK with him at WLB, although he might play some SLB too... mainly because he knows the system. With injuries, yeah, I'm grasping to find a player like Anderson who might have some sleeper upside. Others I'm looking at (in 16 team dynasty) are Trusnik and Studebaker. Norton seems to like Trusnik, my gut feel is Anderson my have the higher upside, but only if he is at the Wil and plays 3 downs.
duece2626
Footballguy
I sent Jene a message yesterday asking if he saw anyone on my FA list at LB who would be a worthy pickup for the rest of the year. He said Anderson was the only every down LB on the list, and he would be a LB4 moving forward.
Rovers
Footballguy
Thanks. Due to injuries, my LB4 is now an LB3. LOL. So I guess I have to choose between Pace and Anderson. I'm not buying Norton's Trusnik ranking, and Studebaker... who knows. I'm not sure I like Pace against Buffalo....
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Anthony Borbely
Footballguy
I think Anderson has decent value with that great schedule. I would agree with Jene and say LB4, but he definitely has upside. He is a great pickup in a 16 teamer. LBs are very hard to find in 16 teamers at this time of year.
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
Anderson played every down last week. I think much of his numbers came from opportunity in the scheme. He's had similar glimmers of opportunity to start in the past and not taken advantage and has looked inconsistent when he has seen extended duty here and there. The LB4 comment comes from the fact that he's much closer to Freddie Keiaho in talent as a T2 WLB than Cato June, much less a Lance Briggs. He'll need a good matchup to hit the 6-7 solo per week numbers that you should expect from a LB2. Consider him, as Tony noted, a LB3/LB4 with some weekly upside.
Rovers
Footballguy
Thanks Mr Borbley and Mr Bramel! I don't think he has much value beyond this year, but I do like the matchups with NE, and MN in weeks 15 and 16. I've been decimated at LB in this league... Lofa, Pierce, Urlacher, Ellison and Poz for a bit. I think, based on what happens this week, he may be my playoff LB over Pace for weeks 15 and 16. I'll go with Pace tonight, and see what happens. Didn't mean to make this a WDIS... but after all, at some level, isn't every thread a WDIS?
Rovers
Footballguy
OK, this may sound like a WDIS, but it's really more about Norton's rankings of two LB's, J Anderson and Pace.
The Jets face TB, who is ranked 26th in giving up FF point to LBs. Car faces NE, the 5th MOST generous team in the NFL when it comes to FF points for LB's.
In 4 out of the last 5 weeks Pace has failed to get into double digits in my tackle heavy league. As evidenced against TB, Anderson did little, but TB usually doesnt give up many FF points to LB's. Anderson did have 16 points against the run heavy Jets 2 weeks ago.
Yet every week, Pace is in Norton's top 20. He's 18 against the stingy TB offense this week too. Then D Harris is at 7 against TB as well? With Bart Scott, where are all these tacles going to come from? Beason against the friendly LB NE offense is ranked at 13, only 5 spots in front of Pace? Seriously? Anderson is projected at 83 with a very favorable matchup. Willis at 4 against the pass happy AZ offense? With 9 tackles? The Cards are the 3rd stingiest team in the NFL when it comes to surrendering FF points to LB's.
The more I look at the rankings, the less I have much faith in them. They just don't make much sense to me, and frankly, I'm having a hard time trusting them. I get the impression that they are just thrown together without much thought or research. It didnt used to be that way.
It was recently suggested that another staffer also do rankings. I would like to see that. These rankings now look more like they are based on a player's reputation rather than tackle and points opportunites.
In general, FBG is the best site, and I'm being honest, but the weekly projections just aren't my cup of tea, from IDP to offensive players. Using an algorythim to calculate 0.3 sacks or 0.4 TD is not very useful. It also makes it safe... you can't be wrong.
Rant over.
The Jets face TB, who is ranked 26th in giving up FF point to LBs. Car faces NE, the 5th MOST generous team in the NFL when it comes to FF points for LB's.
In 4 out of the last 5 weeks Pace has failed to get into double digits in my tackle heavy league. As evidenced against TB, Anderson did little, but TB usually doesnt give up many FF points to LB's. Anderson did have 16 points against the run heavy Jets 2 weeks ago.
Yet every week, Pace is in Norton's top 20. He's 18 against the stingy TB offense this week too. Then D Harris is at 7 against TB as well? With Bart Scott, where are all these tacles going to come from? Beason against the friendly LB NE offense is ranked at 13, only 5 spots in front of Pace? Seriously? Anderson is projected at 83 with a very favorable matchup. Willis at 4 against the pass happy AZ offense? With 9 tackles? The Cards are the 3rd stingiest team in the NFL when it comes to surrendering FF points to LB's.
The more I look at the rankings, the less I have much faith in them. They just don't make much sense to me, and frankly, I'm having a hard time trusting them. I get the impression that they are just thrown together without much thought or research. It didnt used to be that way.
It was recently suggested that another staffer also do rankings. I would like to see that. These rankings now look more like they are based on a player's reputation rather than tackle and points opportunites.
In general, FBG is the best site, and I'm being honest, but the weekly projections just aren't my cup of tea, from IDP to offensive players. Using an algorythim to calculate 0.3 sacks or 0.4 TD is not very useful. It also makes it safe... you can't be wrong.
Rant over.
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Jene Bramel
Footballguy
I'm going to play a little point-counterpoint here, Rovers, mostly because I know you won't mind.
Calvin Pace has four or more solos in six of eight games this season. He's projected to four solos this week. It's clearly not a great overall tackle opportunity matchup, but Norton's only got the four Jet linebackers projected to 17 total solo tackles. I don't think that's unreasonable. The total group of linebackers (some 3-4 and some 4-3) are averaging a little over 16 solos per game this season. It looks like both Harris (only projected to six solos) and Pace are getting a bump in the rankings/projections this week because of their big play expectation.Pace has admittedly been inconsistent in the line scores -- five sacks in eight games with three coming in one game, but he's got 12 pressures in the last three weeks according to profootballfocus. So he's getting to the passer but not finishing in the pocket. Though the Bucs are middle of the pack in sacks allowed per game (2.08/gm), they rank fourth in pressure allowed (quarterback hits from NFL.com per pass drop). It's definitely arguable that Pace's full sack expectation in the projections is high. Drop that to 0.5 expectation and Pace drops all the way down to a tie for #42 in the rankings.
I agree that Anderson's matchup is strong. I'd probably project him to five or six solos myself; I'm not sure what John's thoughts behind the 4-2 projection may be there. It'd be a toss-up to me on who to start -- Anderson's relatively safe with questionable upside, Pace is a boom-bust play.
I've no problem with Willis' projection. The Cardinals may project poorly to number of points given to the linebacker position as a whole, but Willis is likely to get 50% of that projection (or better). There is a rare stinker in this group of inside backers vs Arizona, but Laurinaitis sixteen solos, Hawthorne ten, Henderson, Durant and Beason had eight, Tatupu and Pierce seven. OLB Briggs had nine. In W1, Willis himself had eleven. I think nine solos is well within range this weekend.
With regard to the methods, I'd probably use an algorithm of sorts rather than a gut feel projection as well. I know that John uses seasonal solo and assist norms, runs a weekly spreadsheet with tackles and big plays per defensive position allowed by each offense, double checks the Matchup Analyzer for close calls and injects a little bit of gut feel based on playing time changes, expectation of how the game might go, etc. Without the fractional big play projections, you'd essentially see seven or eight clumps of tiers based on who was projected for five solos vs six solos and who got projected to a sack or not.
Given the issues above, I'd much rather consider the seasonal averages, matchup analyzer data, etc to look deeper into the non-specific SOS by positional data. I believe the NYJ tackle stats are in line with expectation, as are the Willis numbers. Both, I think, correctly tease out the numbers within the larger numbers. The Anderson projection I'd differ with a bit, and you may be correct that John's natural bias toward conservatively projecting players who have yet to prove themselves over a longer time frame might be a hole in the data.
Two things might be helpful with the projections.
Ranges would be helpful. A guy like Pace has an expectation between 1-1-0 and 6-3-2 this week, with those lines closer to his ceiling not necessarily more likely than those near his floor. A guy like Anderson has a much tighter expectation. His expectation is probably between 4-1-0 and 7-1-0 with the 5- or 6- line carrying a very high percentage. To do that for every player would keep a single set of projections from ever getting finished.
Fractionating the tackle projections might be helpful in better delineating tiers, but doesn't do much to help the range issue. In theory, it should make things more precise, but it just puts a more specific number within the larger range.
Rovers
Footballguy
Jene, you make some good counter points. I know Willis blew up in week 1 against AZ, and LB's have done well in that matchup. I just don't know if a Beason should be relatively that far behind him. Beason I beleive is more likely to have that "blow up" sort of game this week.
Sacks for most players are nearly imposible to project as are INT's and big plays in general. Attempting to do so can really have a large impact on how high a player is ranked in a given week, like Pace. After a while, doesn't make sense to drop a player like Pace down to where he belongs, more like the 46 you mentioned? And to bump an Anderson because of his expected tackle opportunities?
Maybe an asterisk placed next to a player with big play expectations or upside would be better? I would love to see a range as you also mentioned, but understand the difficulty in doing so.
I get tons of solid stuff from the FBG IDP articles, but frankly, I just don't trust the projections much anymore... and I used to refer to them regularly. Then there was the recent posting of "updated IDP projections" that were not updated at all. That does not build any confidence in me when I look at them. If they weren't updated, why post them as such?
Again, I think a second set of eyes doing a seperate projection would be a great idea. Maybe even a point counter point article based on them would be even better?
Anyways, good luck to all in the playoffs!
Sacks for most players are nearly imposible to project as are INT's and big plays in general. Attempting to do so can really have a large impact on how high a player is ranked in a given week, like Pace. After a while, doesn't make sense to drop a player like Pace down to where he belongs, more like the 46 you mentioned? And to bump an Anderson because of his expected tackle opportunities?
Maybe an asterisk placed next to a player with big play expectations or upside would be better? I would love to see a range as you also mentioned, but understand the difficulty in doing so.
I get tons of solid stuff from the FBG IDP articles, but frankly, I just don't trust the projections much anymore... and I used to refer to them regularly. Then there was the recent posting of "updated IDP projections" that were not updated at all. That does not build any confidence in me when I look at them. If they weren't updated, why post them as such?
Again, I think a second set of eyes doing a seperate projection would be a great idea. Maybe even a point counter point article based on them would be even better?
Anyways, good luck to all in the playoffs!
Polyethylene Bag
Footballguy
Connor sure showed up in the boxscore this week. 8-3 and a FR. Hoping this is a sign of things to come.You know what makes me sad about this thread? There's not a single reference to Dan Connor.
Rovers
Footballguy
Freakin Anderson again. 7 tackles, 3 asst, one INT and a PD against the Giants.
I just can't pull the trigger on starting him. Sure wish I did in week one. This player is like some annual thorn in my side. I never know what to do with him. Can he be a steady 5 to 6 tackle LB? Or more, like he was this last week?
I just can't pull the trigger on starting him. Sure wish I did in week one. This player is like some annual thorn in my side. I never know what to do with him. Can he be a steady 5 to 6 tackle LB? Or more, like he was this last week?
Nightly Mistake
Footballguy
Freakin Anderson again. 7 tackles, 3 asst, one INT and a PD against the Giants. I just can't pull the trigger on starting him. Sure wish I did in week one. This player is like some annual thorn in my side. I never know what to do with him. Can he be a steady 5 to 6 tackle LB? Or more, like he was this last week?
I had him for some time on my dynasty roster. We've been debating him in this forum for 3-4 years now. He's a borderline starter but no great talent, so it's hard to know whether to hold onto him or not. His situation and matchups often seem to dictate his performance more than his talent, so it's hard to predict. Probably a perfect 3rd or 4th LB to have to catch his good weeks, but his inconsistency hurts his value overall.
Jayrod
Footballguy
This is f-n ridiculous. Its halftime right now. Anderson's stat line?
8 solos, 2 assts, 1 sack, 2 fumble recoveries & 1 forced fumbles. He has 36 points already in my dynasty league.
Beason? Oh, a decent 3 solo, 1 asst stat line.
I'm starting Beason after working hard every year paying attention to LB's and player movement in the offseason, etc....meanwhile my scrub ### opponent who doesn't even hardly check into the website, has no idea what the difference is between a 3-4 or a 4-3, just picked up Anderson in week 3 because he was scoring well and is now kicking my ###. I freaking hate this game sometimes.
ETA: And I would have picked up Anderson first, but I already had Beason and didn't want to double up on the same team.
8 solos, 2 assts, 1 sack, 2 fumble recoveries & 1 forced fumbles. He has 36 points already in my dynasty league.
Beason? Oh, a decent 3 solo, 1 asst stat line.
I'm starting Beason after working hard every year paying attention to LB's and player movement in the offseason, etc....meanwhile my scrub ### opponent who doesn't even hardly check into the website, has no idea what the difference is between a 3-4 or a 4-3, just picked up Anderson in week 3 because he was scoring well and is now kicking my ###. I freaking hate this game sometimes.
ETA: And I would have picked up Anderson first, but I already had Beason and didn't want to double up on the same team.
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Jayrod
Footballguy
51 pts in my league.Meanwhile my superstar, Beason gave me 16.5. I cannot tell you how much this pisses me off. The guy I'm playing doesn't pay attention all year, doesn't attend the draft, and just picks up whoever has a hot couple of weeks and then kicks my ### when we play every year.Rather be lucky than good I guess. Between this and MSW, I'm needing to just take a break from FBG for a while.
gregjcross
Footballguy
I drafted this guy as a rook in dynasty, waited 3 years as he did nothing> Now i get to watch this happen. Fun.buster c said:
Regulator31
Footballguy
I have done the same...couldnt stand it any longer. I have Beason and have been watching Anderson basically double Beason's production. I now have Beason and Anderson and I dont care anymore about having 2 from the same team....beason will ride my bench as I start Anderson and Mayo from here on out unless something changes. Beason isnt the bottom of the barrel, but he isnt the cream of the crop in Car this year either.
Total pts so far im my format
Beason: 56
Anderson: 92
Case made! I am not looking back.
Total pts so far im my format
Beason: 56
Anderson: 92
Case made! I am not looking back.
Harrassment Panda
Footballguy
Decent chase-and-tackle linebacker, they're in a situation where they can't get off the field and the Panthers' d-line is weak.
His production yesterday was largely due to the Panthers' defense being on the field so much. The Saints had several drives of 15+ plays and doubled them up on time of possession.
His production yesterday was largely due to the Panthers' defense being on the field so much. The Saints had several drives of 15+ plays and doubled them up on time of possession.
Ice Cream Man
Footballguy
Just out of curiosity, what did Shaun Phillips line look like? He had the most points in our format.
Nightly Mistake
Footballguy
Yeah, I wonder what your guys' league scoring is. Anderson had 26 points in my league - the top LB's average 10-12 ppg.
Rovers
Footballguy
2pts/tackle, 1/asst, 2 for PD, 3 INT, 2 for sack (+2 for the tackle), 2FF, etc. He had 40 pts in my leagues this week, and is the top scoring LB on the year. Mayo had a pretty good showing 2 nite as well.
Jayrod
Footballguy
Shaun Phillips had 41.7 pts.
Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
Pretty awful game. Just a fluke or the beginning of the end?
5-ish Finkle
Footballguy
Pretty awful game for all the Carolina LBs not named Beason. To this point, all three of their starters have been pretty steady sources of points almost every game.
I'm giving it another week. Fact remains, that defense is likely going to be on the field a TON the rest of the way. Until that changes he(and any of their defenders, really) will likely score more than they're truly capable of merely due to 'attempts.'
Keep in mind, for this week anyway, Cleveland runs the ball a pretty decent amount(28 attempts per game). So does Atlanta in a couple weeks(31 p/g). Ditto Pittsburgh week 16 if you make it that far(29 p/g). Of course, the Ravens run a lot too and he struggled. Go figure.
I'd still say he should bounce back. Running teams are coming his way and, with the Panthers sagging offense, he should be on the field a bunch. He puts up a third straight week of declining tackles though.....
I'm giving it another week. Fact remains, that defense is likely going to be on the field a TON the rest of the way. Until that changes he(and any of their defenders, really) will likely score more than they're truly capable of merely due to 'attempts.'
Keep in mind, for this week anyway, Cleveland runs the ball a pretty decent amount(28 attempts per game). So does Atlanta in a couple weeks(31 p/g). Ditto Pittsburgh week 16 if you make it that far(29 p/g). Of course, the Ravens run a lot too and he struggled. Go figure.
I'd still say he should bounce back. Running teams are coming his way and, with the Panthers sagging offense, he should be on the field a bunch. He puts up a third straight week of declining tackles though.....
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
Anderson could've had a much better day if he'd brought Joe Flacco down for a sack after coming free and getting both arms around Flacco's chest. He was also limited by the Ravens' game plan, which involved single blocking the Panthers' defensive ends with a tight end (or sometimes not at all) on plays away from that side. Charles Johnson and Everette Brown made at least seven solos in run support as a result. Add that to Beason being Beason and Godfrey playing a little better in run support and the Panthers' OLBs had too much to overcome.
Anderson looked fine and will have better days. Harris is what he is -- a so-so OLB who sits in the nickel surrounded by better competition. And Johnson has finally reached the promise many saw in him years ago. With a little luck, Brown is on his heels for 2011.
Anderson looked fine and will have better days. Harris is what he is -- a so-so OLB who sits in the nickel surrounded by better competition. And Johnson has finally reached the promise many saw in him years ago. With a little luck, Brown is on his heels for 2011.
5-ish Finkle
Footballguy
With this in mind, Jene.....Harris probably waiver fodder over guys like, say, Hawthorne and Bentley in your humble opinion?Seems like Harris is going to be hit or miss. May throw up a big game somewhere in the next 4, but the other three may be just "Eeeeeaaaauuuugh!"Jene Bramel said:
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
All in the same tier. Their "better" matchups may only be a 3-1 bet to go the way you expect, unfortunately.
