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Jamaal Charles. You heard it here first. (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter MrSoup
- Start date
LHUCKS
Footballguy
Mediocre talent, but could be in a good situation.
MrSoup
Footballguy
Now it's right.
glumpy
breeze
You lose a little credibility with this one.
theglorydays
Footballguy
Lol, Charles is very talented. You obviously don't know much about him.
JetMaxx
Footballguy
Lousy tackling, great blocking. But Charles is clearly very talented. Wow.
KnowledgeReignsSupreme
Footballguy
Texas RBs don't bust.
fissure man
Footballguy
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Good posting. Hopefully a staff position will open up for you soon.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
While I'm not necessarily saying Charles will be a bust, putting up a good second half in no way means a guy will be a stud the next year.William GreenKevin JonesJulius JonesThose are all guys that put up monster 2nd halves just as big as Charles did in their first year that ended up amounting to nothing. Ryan Grant did the same and has been solid but pretty unspectacular.His stats trump your eyesight. Here's what he put up with half a season's work on a crappy team.
What in those stats makes you think he's a bust?
fissure man
Footballguy
While you're right, pretty sure I could go back and hand pick 10 guys who did the opposite. Of the three guys mentioned, only Julius went to a NCAA "powerhouse". Julius has also sustained a career, and is a serviceable player/fantasy starter.Also, didn't all three have fairly significant injuries their second year?While I'm not necessarily saying Charles will be a bust, putting up a good second half in no way means a guy will be a stud the next year.William GreenKevin JonesJulius JonesThose are all guys that put up monster 2nd halves just as big as Charles did in their first year that ended up amounting to nothing. Ryan Grant did the same and has been solid but pretty unspectacular.His stats trump your eyesight. Here's what he put up with half a season's work on a crappy team.
What in those stats makes you think he's a bust?
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
The thing you need to add to this is what do you see as "bust"?
Living up to his fantasy draft position? If so, what position will that be?
Or will he rush for 1,000 yards next year?
Or will he have over 5 ypc?
Living up to his fantasy draft position? If so, what position will that be?
Or will he rush for 1,000 yards next year?
Or will he have over 5 ypc?
He may not be an "elite" physical talent, but he's in the right system, with the right coach, and the right QB to put up good FF numbers.
I felt this way at the beginning of the year, and drafted him late in my keeper league. However, when he got de-activated (week 2) I think, didn't do much early, and bye weeks hit, I dropped him. 3 weeks later, LJ is cut, and away he goes.
My main concern would be his TD totals. Am I mistaken, or did his TDs seem to come on long plays? Did he get any/most/all GL carries? Was he successful? Would the Chiefs want a GL back to take those carries away?
I felt this way at the beginning of the year, and drafted him late in my keeper league. However, when he got de-activated (week 2) I think, didn't do much early, and bye weeks hit, I dropped him. 3 weeks later, LJ is cut, and away he goes.
My main concern would be his TD totals. Am I mistaken, or did his TDs seem to come on long plays? Did he get any/most/all GL carries? Was he successful? Would the Chiefs want a GL back to take those carries away?
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I'd actually be interested in this. I can't really think of any guys that took over the starting gig in the 2nd half of the season and had numbers like these guys (and Charles) did, and went on to stardom the next year. I'm sure there are some really obvious ones that I'm missing, but I can't think of any offhand.While you're right, pretty sure I could go back and hand pick 10 guys who did the opposite.While I'm not necessarily saying Charles will be a bust, putting up a good second half in no way means a guy will be a stud the next year.William GreenKevin JonesJulius JonesThose are all guys that put up monster 2nd halves just as big as Charles did in their first year that ended up amounting to nothing. Ryan Grant did the same and has been solid but pretty unspectacular.His stats trump your eyesight. Here's what he put up with half a season's work on a crappy team.
What in those stats makes you think he's a bust?
zamboni
Footballguy
Looks like the real deal to me, especially considering what he did behind a pretty poor offensive line. I'm sure the line will be among the most prominent areas the team will look to improve upon.
Right now, outside of injury, the biggest risk is whether they bring in a grinding complementary RB to take a bit of the load off of Charles' shoulders (and perhaps take the goal line TDs).
Right now, outside of injury, the biggest risk is whether they bring in a grinding complementary RB to take a bit of the load off of Charles' shoulders (and perhaps take the goal line TDs).
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
Larry JohnsonMJD had a great TD run the second half his rookie yearI'd actually be interested in this. I can't really think of any guys that took over the starting gig in the 2nd half of the season and had numbers like these guys (and Charles) did, and went on to stardom the next year. I'm sure there are some really obvious ones that I'm missing, but I can't think of any offhand.While you're right, pretty sure I could go back and hand pick 10 guys who did the opposite.While I'm not necessarily saying Charles will be a bust, putting up a good second half in no way means a guy will be a stud the next year.William GreenKevin JonesJulius JonesThose are all guys that put up monster 2nd halves just as big as Charles did in their first year that ended up amounting to nothing. Ryan Grant did the same and has been solid but pretty unspectacular.His stats trump your eyesight. Here's what he put up with half a season's work on a crappy team.
What in those stats makes you think he's a bust?
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
I agreed with those who said their QB would be a bust, but he was changing teams. I just don't see why JC would suddenly take a giant dip.
JetMaxx
Footballguy
Don't know who made the worst decision, Pioli or Cerrato?
Little Joe
Footballguy
CrossEyed
Footballguy
Really? I see speed, strength, vision, quickness...The only thing that might be a bit concerning is his size. Can he hold up to 16 games of punishment? That's about the only question mark I see.
Well, he got a ton of looks over the second half. I would suspect he won't average 27 touches a game like he did the last month of the season, but I would suspect that the overall offense will get better, giving him more scoring chances.
Will he average 6 yards a carry again? Doubtful. Will he average 100 combined rushing/passing yards a game, with a chance for 10 TDs? Very possible.
Looks like a good RB, but with the potential to get way over-hyped.
Will he average 6 yards a carry again? Doubtful. Will he average 100 combined rushing/passing yards a game, with a chance for 10 TDs? Very possible.
Looks like a good RB, but with the potential to get way over-hyped.
How many of them averaged 5.9 ypc? That's elite status RB production.While I'm not necessarily saying Charles will be a bust, putting up a good second half in no way means a guy will be a stud the next year.William GreenKevin JonesJulius JonesThose are all guys that put up monster 2nd halves just as big as Charles did in their first year that ended up amounting to nothing. Ryan Grant did the same and has been solid but pretty unspectacular.His stats trump your eyesight. Here's what he put up with half a season's work on a crappy team.
What in those stats makes you think he's a bust?
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jackdubl
Footballguy
Larry Johnson is the one that comes to mind quickly. Pierre Thomas did ok this year, and Deuce before him started out that way. I think Steven Jackson might be another one, but can't remember. I believe Chester Taylor would qualify, had a really good year as a starter before AD came in. Ryan Grant. There's really too many to remember.
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JamesTheScot
Footballguy
I voted "yes" just because I think too many people will project his starting stats to a full season and then draft him accordingly while seeing visions of Chris Johnson dance in their heads. I don't think it's that he personally regresses or that he's all smoke-n-mirrors, but rather that he's a prime candidate to get over-hyped.
He's on a bad team. And that means the starting lineup will see some shake-up for next year. People point to a rather mediocre O-line and argue that they can't get any worse, but in reality they could. New faces get brought in to improve the o-line and it takes a half season or more get the o-line in synch. Maybe there are some scheme changes intended to better compliment the offensive personnel, or even Charles, which cause some growing pains in the offense next year. I'm also curious about his SOS over his starts. Seems like I read that he's faced some pretty soft D's.
I'd be leery of taking him as my RB1 but I think there will be a lot of people late in the first or early in the second who chase the points, so to speak, and take him there as their RB1 hoping he pulls a Chris Johnson '09.
He's on a bad team. And that means the starting lineup will see some shake-up for next year. People point to a rather mediocre O-line and argue that they can't get any worse, but in reality they could. New faces get brought in to improve the o-line and it takes a half season or more get the o-line in synch. Maybe there are some scheme changes intended to better compliment the offensive personnel, or even Charles, which cause some growing pains in the offense next year. I'm also curious about his SOS over his starts. Seems like I read that he's faced some pretty soft D's.
I'd be leery of taking him as my RB1 but I think there will be a lot of people late in the first or early in the second who chase the points, so to speak, and take him there as their RB1 hoping he pulls a Chris Johnson '09.
He had amazing production. To think that he had 25 carries and 0 TDs in the first half and still finished as the #11 RB in my PPR league.
I know some of the 2nd half players mentioned above had good ends of the season, but they weren't great. Charles second half prorates in PPR to equal to/better than all other RBs point totals in 2007, 2008 and 2009 except for LBJ's ridiculous year this year. That is a great finish.
I know some of the 2nd half players mentioned above had good ends of the season, but they weren't great. Charles second half prorates in PPR to equal to/better than all other RBs point totals in 2007, 2008 and 2009 except for LBJ's ridiculous year this year. That is a great finish.
I voted no in the poll, but the thing that concerns me about Charles is how small he looks out on the field. Once he gets into the open field he's fun to watch...but on a lot of the footage I watch of him, his helmet looks as big as the rest of his body...and his body looks rather thin. Not frail...just not as ripped/cut as you might expect to see from a guy being projected by some as a 240-250 carry, 1,200-1,400 yard runner. No questioning his speed! He just looks "small" out there to me...for whatever reason.
jackdubl
Footballguy
I live in Kansas City, no I'm not a KC fan, but I have seen every KC game on the tube this season. Charles seemed like nothing special to me until LJ went down and I got to see what he could do with the full workload. Now my only concern about him is durability and whether the Chiefs use him on the goalline next year. Someone asked a few posts back if all of his TDs were long - no, he was getting goalline carries and even got a 2-pt conversion on a run. The kid has the running instincts to do it, runs violent for his size, has the speed and the slashing cuts, can catch. If he stays healthy and doesn't see a major decrease in workload, pencil him in for 1,200 rushing 300 receiving and 9-10 tds easy.
Restricted
Footballguy
Elaborate please? I thought he played for the Chiefs.
mjr
Footballguy
Quite a few have said the same of Addai earlier this year, claiming that by now Brown would be the next big thing. And I could understand why: they had quite a few legit reasons to argue that way given all the circumstances. With Charles, I don't see anything solid to suggest he can't be a decent #1RB. You can talk about concerns with his size and durability, but Haley himself called Charles out on that and Charles played through injuries which included a shoulder that needed to be popped back into place. You can talk about his stats being lofty against bottom run Ds, but he found the end zone in other ways when he couldn't do it between the tackles, as was the case twice against the Steelers #1 run D when he caught one through the air and returned one on a kick in the same game. We can sit here and talk about the historical stats of other players and the odds, but what does that really prove? If logic like that provided accurate predictions we probably wouldn't have discussions like this to begin with. Lots of things can change over the next 9 months, but so far outside of someone else's hunch or gut feeling I have no legitimate reason to believe Charles can't be successful in 2010.
zamboni
Footballguy
One other thing worth noting is that Charles' breakout really happened when Bowe was out. Chambers filled in nicely, but really the offense literally ran through Charles when he didn't have much help.
I'm not sure how that impacts his numbers for next year, but something worth noting about carrying an entire offense.
I'm not sure how that impacts his numbers for next year, but something worth noting about carrying an entire offense.
The Jacket
Footballguy
4.34 40/10.2 100M speed, elite balance, moves and shiftiness, good vision, brilliant receiver out of the backfield and in the slot, vastly underrated power, never-say-die attitude (i.e. very tough runner, despite illusions over size). What's not to like, exactly?
HULLOBUDMAN
Footballguy
I like hearing everyone touting Charles as a top 5 back and as a Chief fan I hope that happens. I see him somewhere in the 12-18 range and KC bringing in someone to help him carry the load. Charles getting around 200 carries and another 35-40 receptions.
The run Ds that he faced in his stretch were not good. Teams he faced and rank in yards allowed per game
Oak 28
Pitt 3 (58 yards rush, 2/8 rec, 2TD)
SD 20
Den 26
Buf 30
Clev 28
Cin 8 (102 rush, 3/22 rec) First game without Rey or did he get hurt in this game? Cincy run D has not been the same without him
Den 26
Alot of teams ranked in the bottom 1/3 of the league against the run.
The run Ds that he faced in his stretch were not good. Teams he faced and rank in yards allowed per game
Oak 28
Pitt 3 (58 yards rush, 2/8 rec, 2TD)
SD 20
Den 26
Buf 30
Clev 28
Cin 8 (102 rush, 3/22 rec) First game without Rey or did he get hurt in this game? Cincy run D has not been the same without him
Den 26
Alot of teams ranked in the bottom 1/3 of the league against the run.
MrSoup
Footballguy
This was the case I tried arguing with my friend.Charles MAY be Top 15 next year, but I can just see all the offseason hype on the Footballguys boards is only going to rise and soon enough, people will be touting him Top 7, Top 5.
Ladies and gentlemen, he's not Chris Johnson. I think he'll be more like Steve Slaton v2.0
A
awesomeness
Guest
The reason Denver's run defense is ranked so low is because they just gave up 259 yards to Charles. Coming into week 17, the Broncos run D was ranked closer to 20th IIRC.And i think you're giving Rey Maualuga a little too much credit for the Bengals successful run D, particularly because he's only playing about 50-65% of the snaps each game.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Larry Johnson is really the only one that breaks the mold here, and he was a bit of a unique situation in that everyone and their mom knew that the KC RB position at that time was the biggest goldmine in the history of FF.Pierre Thomas has been a borderline bust this year, 1000 total yards and 8 TDs is pretty meh.Chester Taylor in no way qualifies so I have no idea why you brought him up. The year before he became the starter in Minnesota he had 487 total yards and 1 TD, had one start, and had 6, 5, and 8 carries his last three games. Not even close to what we're talking about here.Deuce again in no way qualifies. He had 16 carries for 91 yards the year before he became the starter. I'm not sure why you brought his name up.Similar story with Sjax. He had two big games his rookie year and had 39 carries the last 4 weeks, nowhere near what we're talking about here.Ryan Grant I mentioned. Again decent, but unspectacular, with most speculating that he could be replaced as the starter at any time.So in summary, of guys that break out for these huge second halves in their first year as a starter we have...4 huge busts:Kevin JonesJulius JonesWilliam GreenEarnest Graham2 mediocre guys:Ryan GrantPierre Thomas1 short-term stud that was in a unique situation:Larry JohnsonThis isn't to say that having a big second half after taking over the starting job for the first time is a kiss of death, but I think it's pretty clear that "dude look at how amazing his numbers are the last 8 weeks!" is a pretty weak argument given the history of it. I'd like to see why people are high on Charles as a player, and what makes him different, because "he put up amazing numbers when he took over in the second half" has been done before and rarely worked out.jackdubl said:
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I'm a Chiefs fan, but the way things have gone the last few years I'm more likely to be biased against KC players than for them. That said, Charles is a stud. What impressed me that I wasn't sure about going into the year was the vision/balance/power combo for a guy with his size and speed. I was shocked at some of the tackles he broke over the last few weeks. I didn't think he had that kind of power in him. I'm not going to suggest he should be top 5 or even 10, but he's a high level #2 going into next season IMO.
As to the Chris Johnson comparison....how do we know he isn't another CJ? He's got elite speed, broke off a number of long runs, and has surprising toughness for a guy his size. It's unlikely, but he has the physical traits from what I've seen this year.
As to the Chris Johnson comparison....how do we know he isn't another CJ? He's got elite speed, broke off a number of long runs, and has surprising toughness for a guy his size. It's unlikely, but he has the physical traits from what I've seen this year.
HULLOBUDMAN
Footballguy
I hate this logic. The game happened, it goes against their stats. They were highly ranked early in the year and got worse throughout the year. By your logic we should throw out their good games early in the season that brought their average down.Since their 6-0 start the Donks allowed 1264 yards over the 9 games prior to the Chiefs game (since you think we should ignore it). That is an average of 140 YPG. The season average is 116 for the NFL. 140 would have ranked the Broncos 27th, 3 yards a game worse than the Rams. The Broncos were NOT a good rush D.ETA: You may very well be right about Rey and the Cincy rush D but what else change from them being dominant against the run from before his injury to the last couple games?
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