Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
If Walker is healthy I believe he finishes as a top 10 fantasy Wr this year. Who is with me?
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
Javon Walker a top 10 fantasy WR this year? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Carter_Can_Fly
- Start date
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
Curious to know why people feel he will not finish top 10 if he is healthy. This guy is an elite talent that has proven he is elilte. I don't think it matters where he goes as he is that good that he should find a way into the top 10. IMO
Tommy Collins
Footballguy
Not so sure about him in Denver for 2 reasons. QB situation and the running game.
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
Although this is true, it does not mean he won't succeed in Denver. He may well have been predicted as top 5 for those other teams but he still has to be considered as a top 10 guy.
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
Running game is not a bad thing here. I see no reason why Walker won't have 1100-1200 yards recieving and 7 plus TD's.
delusional
Footballguy
i dont know this off the top of my head but whats the track record on WRS under Plummer have 1200yd 7+TD seasons?
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
I don't know, but in 2004 in Denver Plummer threw for 4000 yards and 27 TD'sLast season he threw for 3400 yards and 18 TD's.
Given Walker's talent and track record I think he could have 1200 of these yards and at least 7 of these TD's in any of those given years.
slatercove1
Footballguy
Who knows, somewhere from 5-15. I love him for this season and the future given they took Cutler. Having Plummer for 2 more seasons and then having Cutler eased in shouldn't hurt his stats that much.
I'd guess 11-1200 yards 7-10 TD's this year.
I'd guess 11-1200 yards 7-10 TD's this year.
CalBear
Footballguy
Rod Smith has been the Bronco's top fantasy receiver for 9 years straight now. In that time, he has only been in the top-10 in fantasy scoring three times, and hasn't been close since Plummer showed up. With Smith still there, Walker coming off an ACL and learning a new system, and the general difficulty of WRs adapting to new teams, I would estimate Walker's chances of finishing top-10 as extremely poor.
fridayfrenzy
Footballguy
No.....for a few reasons.
1) Injury - he is coming off a very serious injury and will have not played football since September of 2005. A WR that needs to make quick cuts will not be back up to their pre-injury self for a little while.
2) Rod Smith - although he is an aging WR, he still made the Pro Bowl last year and had 80 catches for 1100 yards and 6 TDs. Rod Smith's role in Denver's offense will not change with Walker on the team, so you can expect Rod Smith to get the similar yards and TDs that he has had n the past.
3) Walker is coming from Green Bay, which was a pass happy offense that had the 2nd most pass attempts last season and is going to Denver, which is a run first team and who had the 8th least amount of pass attempts last year. In 2004, Green Bay had the most pass attempts in the entire NFL. Ten less pass attempts per game is a definate downgrade in the situation.
4) Lelie - It remains to be seen if Lelie will be on the team at the start of the season, but as for now, Lelie is a nice 3rd WR in the NFL and will take a nice slice of the pie.
5) Other Top WRs - I am not sure of your Top 10 WRs, but which WRs would you remove out of this Top 10 ist to put Walker in?....Holt, Boldin, Fitz, Owens, Harrison, Moss, Steve Smith, S. Moss, Ward. Now also keep in mind, that this list does not include players such as Jackson, Burress, Chambers, Wayne, etc.
6) Stat projection in Denver.....for Walker to be a Top 10 WR, he would need to get approx 160 FP. That is roughly 1200 yards and 7 TDs.
Lets say Plummer throws for 3500 yards
Rod Smith - 1100 yards receiving
Lelie - 400 yards receiving
Other WRs - 200 yards receiving
Alexander - 350 yards receiving
Other TEs - 50 yards receiving
RBs - 400 yards receiving
That leaves Walker with approx 1000 yards receiving. Unless he gets a high number of TDs, that is not Top 10 numbers. In 2004 Lelie and Smith both had approx 1100 yards and neither was in the Top 10.
I would like to see HOW you think Walker will get into the Top 10.
1) Injury - he is coming off a very serious injury and will have not played football since September of 2005. A WR that needs to make quick cuts will not be back up to their pre-injury self for a little while.
2) Rod Smith - although he is an aging WR, he still made the Pro Bowl last year and had 80 catches for 1100 yards and 6 TDs. Rod Smith's role in Denver's offense will not change with Walker on the team, so you can expect Rod Smith to get the similar yards and TDs that he has had n the past.
3) Walker is coming from Green Bay, which was a pass happy offense that had the 2nd most pass attempts last season and is going to Denver, which is a run first team and who had the 8th least amount of pass attempts last year. In 2004, Green Bay had the most pass attempts in the entire NFL. Ten less pass attempts per game is a definate downgrade in the situation.
4) Lelie - It remains to be seen if Lelie will be on the team at the start of the season, but as for now, Lelie is a nice 3rd WR in the NFL and will take a nice slice of the pie.
5) Other Top WRs - I am not sure of your Top 10 WRs, but which WRs would you remove out of this Top 10 ist to put Walker in?....Holt, Boldin, Fitz, Owens, Harrison, Moss, Steve Smith, S. Moss, Ward. Now also keep in mind, that this list does not include players such as Jackson, Burress, Chambers, Wayne, etc.
6) Stat projection in Denver.....for Walker to be a Top 10 WR, he would need to get approx 160 FP. That is roughly 1200 yards and 7 TDs.
Lets say Plummer throws for 3500 yards
Rod Smith - 1100 yards receiving
Lelie - 400 yards receiving
Other WRs - 200 yards receiving
Alexander - 350 yards receiving
Other TEs - 50 yards receiving
RBs - 400 yards receiving
That leaves Walker with approx 1000 yards receiving. Unless he gets a high number of TDs, that is not Top 10 numbers. In 2004 Lelie and Smith both had approx 1100 yards and neither was in the Top 10.
I would like to see HOW you think Walker will get into the Top 10.
Last edited by a moderator:
fridayfrenzy
Footballguy
Code:
YR G TRG REC YD Y/R TD FPT RANK2002 15 50 23 319 13.9 1 39 942003 16 74 41 716 17.5 9 126 212004 16 138 89 1382 15.5 12 210 22005 1 5 4 27 6.8 0 3 155
Last edited by a moderator:
So you have him at 1000 yards, 5-6 tds? It's not hard to see how he could get 1,200 and 7 tds, putting him in the top 10. Or more.
First off, the Denver RBs took a hit without MA. If Bell gets hurt, and it's just Ron Dayne? Ouch.
Walker is a better WR, giving them more options in the passing game. He'd clearly be the most talented WR. And would probably steal some of Smiths 1,100 yards you have going to him. With Denver now having 2 legit WRs, Lelie giving some matchup problems from the slot, the Denver offense could very easily open up.
The running game is great, but it hasn't helped them in the playoffs. Like Indy going back to the run last year, I could see Denver going more to the pass this year (better WRs, weaker RBs).
I'm not saying he's a lock for the top 10, but from your own post, you pretty much make a case for it. Again two key factors will be the healthy, and if Bell really steps up. But Shanny has wanted a big time WR for awhile, so I do see them having more of an air attack this year.
Regardless, if he's healthy, he's in that top 8-15 range which makes him a great #2 WR.
fridayfrenzy
Footballguy
The difference between 1000 yards and 6 TDs, and 1200 yards and 7 TDs is the difference from 10th rank and the 20th rank. Keep in mind that 1200 and 7 TDs is the MINIMUM Walker will need to get into the Top 10. That means that you have to think Walker will be a "LOCK" for 1200 yards and 7 TDs. I don't think thats a lock by any means.Of course Walker could be in the Top 10, but I am not betting on it for the many reasons I pointed out.
Pitt did pretty good last year with a running game and a burner like Bell.
Last edited by a moderator:
By "hasn't helped them in the playoffs" I meant Denver, not the entire NFL. I'm not sure what Pittsburg has to do with Walkers projections.And yes, I understand the difference. I used your own assumptions, and added in the weaker RB core and improved WR core to make up the difference. Along with DENVERs playoff struggles, we might see more of an air attack this year (and weaker RBs/TEs). Some of MAs TDs will go to Plummer, and in turn will probably go to Walker. Plummer was 27-20, 18-8 in 04/05, I see him going about 24-12 this year. Walker should be a lock for 8 tds, and might top out around 11.
Walker is just a great fit for Plummer. He's used to wildman Favre chucking it all over the place. He reacts well to the ball, and goes after it with some aggression. This will help Plummer, and Plummer should have a very good rapport with Walker. Lelie quit on a number of balls last year, and Plummer just didn't trust him. Walker is going to be a huge upgrade for Denvers WRs.
coco the monkey
Footballguy
If he went to Philly I think we could talk about top 10. Denver........not so much.
msommer
Footballguy
I have two issues with your analysis. Number one is that you are assuming that Rod Smith will maintan his production from the last four years. You might be right but at the same time you could easily have Rod not getting open as much, hitting the wall.I am not saying that he will - I don't know one way or another, but he is now 36 and although he is a fitness freak of almost Rice'esque proportions he has declined from his best years '98-01. It is not inconceivable that he will take a further step back and that is the first risk factor of your analysis.
Number two is that Shanahan has been reported to be concerned about the lack of credible threats in the passing game. I believe it was reported here yday that the Borncos passed 47% of the time in 2005. From 2004 to 2005 the Broncos passed 70 times less and got 700 yards less. Adding Javon Walker is a clear sign that they a re about to do somethig about it. Also they have not gotten rid of Lelie yet which means that they have a credible #3 WR - as a burner there is nothing much wrong with Lelie. If they do not actually trade Lelie (and not for another WR that could be a credible#3) - big if, I know - they have the possibility for Plummer to get more yards than 3,500 and if there is another 300 yards out there is it not likely that Javon Walker will be the main beneficiary?
Last edited by a moderator:
camperguy01
Footballguy
Wouldn't surprise me a bit to see Walker play down a bit after leaving Green Bay.....
fridayfrenzy
Footballguy
Must be.....I would like to hear from those who have Walker in the Top 10. If you have Walker in the Top 10, what player from this list do you remove.
Owens
Holt
Boldin
Fitz
Johnson
Harrison
Steve Smith
S. Moss
Ward
Moss
.....
Jackson
Chambers
Burress
Wayne
fridayfrenzy
Footballguy
Rod Smith made the Pro Bowl last year.Of course he could hit the wall, but you could make a case that he may try even harder now with the Broncos going out and getting a WR.
Projecting Rod Smith to hit the wall is going against the norm, not only of the last few years, but from his Pro Bowl year last season.
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
I am not saying you have to draft Javon Walker ahead of any of these guys but he has a chance to be a top 10 fantasy WR this year. Obviously get the best value you can out of Walker, but I see no reason why he can't finish ahead of S. Moss and one of the lesser from Fitz/Boldin. One of the Fitz/Boldin tandems will come down a bit with the addition of E. James. I think the only concern for Walker as I pointed out was health. If he is healthy it does not matter if he is in Denver or any other place as he is the type of skilled player that can produce. Health is the biggest concern, not so much the change of location.
And using new systems as a negative is not true. Just ask S. Moss.
fridayfrenzy
Footballguy
Moss played for the Jets before. How was the change in scenery for Muhammad, Mason, Moss, Price, etc.?I am not talking where you would draft them, but where they will finish. Lets hear your top 10 as they will finish if you think Walker should be in there.
Of course Walker has a "CHANCE"...every player has a chance to finsh in the Top 10, the discussion is if you think he will.
Last edited by a moderator:
msommer
Footballguy
The risk is that he could. Even disconsidering that - if they improve on the passing game, ypa, yards overall - how would you distribute the addtl yards and keep Walker at 1000/6? Rod Smith returning to 1998-2001 form is a lot less likely than the chief beneficiary of the extra yards will be the new WR
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
I would not use 2005 as any indication as to how good he was going to be last year. Walker would have easily exceeded the 1000 yard mark total and probably been a double digit TD guy again last season.2004 was his breakout year building on a successful sophmore season with 716 yards and 9 TD's. He has proven he is more then a legitmate threat in the red zone and has big play ability. He also had great hands whereas his coaches had him for only 1 dropped catchable ball in 2004.
Walker in my eyes when healthy is a proven commodity and teh Broncos and Shanny believe this as well by trading for Walker and are in the middle of giving him a big contract.
Last edited by a moderator:
cstu
Footballguy
If Walker cracks the top 15 I'll be surprised. I don't question his ability to be a top 10 WR but Denver doesn't need him to put up big numbers and will go to the running game to run out the clock. Walker is somewhat a product of the Packers' system and having Favre at QB. Favre has a license to make plays which is why Walker had 9 TD's in 2003. In 2004 when Walker had his Pro Bowl year, the Packers were #1 in passing attempts, I don't see that happening with the Broncos. Rod Smith will still be the possession guy and will take a lot of opportunities away from Walker.Walker's forecast: 1100 yards, 6 TD's.
fridayfrenzy
Footballguy
Is Walker a good WR....yes. Is Walker a proven commodity...not by any means. They are two different things. Regardless of Walker got hurt or not, he has had ONE good season out of four. That does not meet any sort of qualification to be deemed a proven elite talent.
Do you consider these stats as a proven elite talent?
Code:
G REC YD Y/R TD FPT RANK16 31 393 12.7 3 57 7016 52 762 14.7 3 97 4116 55 895 16.3 7 141 2116 94 1252 13.3 9 178 7
Last edited by a moderator:
Steve Smith had 2 good years out of 5. People have no problem ranking him in the top 3. Steve Smith
And AJ NEVER really had a great year, and was ranked in the top 10 by most FGB staff. People project things based on lots of factors. If you needed 4 good years in a row to get a high ranking, we could juse write a script to spit out rankings. But players change teams, get injuried, come back from injuries, QBs change. Stuff happens.
Last edited by a moderator:
Big Score
Footballguy
Whose numbers are those fridayfrenzy?
These are Walker's Receiving numbers;Year Team G GS No Yards Avg TD 2002 Green Bay 15 2 23 319 13.9 12003 Green Bay 16 3 41 716 17.5 9 2004 Green Bay 16 12 89 1382 15.5 12 2005 Green Bay 1 1 4 27 6.8 0Also, what was the Packer's WR situation in 2002 & 2003 fridayfrenzy?[SIZE=8pt]EDIT: To clarify the Walker numbers in my post, are receiving only[/SIZE]
Last edited by a moderator:
fridayfrenzy
Footballguy
I posted Walker's numbers up there, I was just trying to prove my point that Walker does not have numbers to back up that he is a "proven" elite talent.Those stats I posted were from Peerless Price before he went to Atlanta. They are very very similar to Walker's, yet Price can not be considered a "proven elite talent" by any stretch of the imagination. To be a "PROVEN" elite talent in my eyes, you need more than ONE year in the top 20...sorry.Whose numbers are those fridayfrenzy?
Year Team G GS No Yards Avg TD 2002 Green Bay 15 2 23 319 13.9 12003 Green Bay 16 3 41 716 17.5 9 2004 Green Bay 16 12 89 1382 15.5 12 2005 Green Bay 1 1 4 27 6.8 0Also, what was the Packer's WR situation in 2002 & 2003 fridayfrenzy?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Last edited by a moderator:
Big Score
Footballguy
GotchaI posted Walker's numbers up there, I was just trying to prove my point that Walker does not have numbers to back up that he is a "proven" elite talent.Those stats I posted were from Peerless Price before he went to Atlanta. They are very very similar to Walker's.Whose numbers are those fridayfrenzy?
Year Team G GS No Yards Avg TD 2002 Green Bay 15 2 23 319 13.9 12003 Green Bay 16 3 41 716 17.5 9 2004 Green Bay 16 12 89 1382 15.5 12 2005 Green Bay 1 1 4 27 6.8 0Also, what was the Packer's WR situation in 2002 & 2003 fridayfrenzy?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Still, I think the Packer's WR situation in 2002 & 2003 needs to be considered, when looking at Walkers numbers from those years.But that's just me. Others may consider it irrelevant.
fridayfrenzy
Footballguy
Do you think Walker will finish in the Top 10 or that he is a proven elite talent?Gotcha
Still, I think the Packer's WR situation in 2002 & 2003 needs to be considered, when looking at Walkers numbers from those years.
But that's just me. Others may consider it irrelevant.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
JAA
Footballguy
He was the only WR at that point I would have taken. Certainly not a pick for this seasonYeah, you need to justify that pick.I would have taken him six picks later if he had been still available.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Pat Patriot
Footballguy
I think Walker has a good chance at top 15. A couple of months ago in my dynasty league I traded Peyton Manning and Hines Ward for Tom Brady, Javon Walker and a 2nd round pick in this years rookie draft.
I think Walker at least has a chance to match Ward's production.
I think Walker at least has a chance to match Ward's production.
AhrnCityPahnder
Yinz-o-riffic
on all points.
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
How about this statement: Walker is an elite talent that has proven when healthy and as a starter that he is "elite."
P. Price going to a M. Vick offense has no relevance in this conversation. 2 years ago Plummer threw for 4000 yards in Denver. It's not as if Walker is going to Chicago or Baltimore's passing game here.
I am not expecting Walker to surpass his 2004 numbers, but I could see him finishing top 10 this year. Call it a hunch. A guy playing for a new organization with a chip on his shoulder wanting to prove to people that he is worth all the money he will be getting.
He is a red zone threat and Plummer can throw the ball. Walker will finish ahead of R. Smith this season and in the top 10.
Friday you ate crow on the L. Jordan saga from last year and you could be set to eat some more crow.
P. Price going to a M. Vick offense has no relevance in this conversation. 2 years ago Plummer threw for 4000 yards in Denver. It's not as if Walker is going to Chicago or Baltimore's passing game here.
I am not expecting Walker to surpass his 2004 numbers, but I could see him finishing top 10 this year. Call it a hunch. A guy playing for a new organization with a chip on his shoulder wanting to prove to people that he is worth all the money he will be getting.
He is a red zone threat and Plummer can throw the ball. Walker will finish ahead of R. Smith this season and in the top 10.
Friday you ate crow on the L. Jordan saga from last year and you could be set to eat some more crow.
I can definitely see Walker getting 60 receptions in Denver this season, but that won't be near enough to put him at the elite level. Among WRs, Rod Smith will still get the lion's share of receptions...budget 50-60 receptions going to RBs, and another 30-50 going to the TEs, and there isn't enough to go around among the Denver WRs.
2005 Denver WRs Receptions:
R. Smith = 85
A. Lelie = 42
C. Adams = 21
2004 Denver WRs Receptions:
R. Smith = 79
A. Lelie = 54
D. Watts = 31
2003 Denver WRs Receptions:
R. Smith = 74
A. Lelie = 37
E. McCaffrey = 19
2005 Denver WRs Receptions:
R. Smith = 85
A. Lelie = 42
C. Adams = 21
2004 Denver WRs Receptions:
R. Smith = 79
A. Lelie = 54
D. Watts = 31
2003 Denver WRs Receptions:
R. Smith = 74
A. Lelie = 37
E. McCaffrey = 19
Last edited by a moderator:
cstu
Footballguy
I was right there with you on Jordan last year, but I disagree on Walker. With Rod Smith and Lelie still there, Denver doesn't run the type of offense to get Walker the ball like Favre did. He's still a top 20 guy, especially in dynasty, but talk of top 10 this year is ridiculous.
