JAX: PFF Mock Sim (1 Viewer)

[BoltBacker]

Here is the site: https://www.pff.com/draft/nfl-mock-draft-simulator?ref=2d222ef8-c92a-43da-b007-e56e27de9440

Here are the rules I draft by:

- Has to be 7 rounds, it's the point of the exercise to see what talent is available later.

- Under "Advanced Settings" you need to unclick "Use Defaults" and change all the settings to 50/50 all the way down to add more randomness than simply seeing/predicting who lands where.

- NO TRADES, unrealistic but it helps to compare our drafts.

1 - Charles Cross(OT)MissSt - Seems like an easy choice to me. If Lawrence doesn't work out it sets the franchise back three years. Don't even start with "But, Cam Robinson...." it only underscores how badly they NEED to make this pick.

33 - Daxton Hill(CB/S)Michigan - I see him as FS and the best player left on my board. Another easy choice.

44 - John Metchie(WR)Alabama - Should be higher but JAX gets an injury discount for a team that can wait for him to get fully healthy and likely become WR#1 when he does.

70 - Cameron Thomas(EDGE)SD St. - You take pass rushers when you can, he'd likely be higher if there weren't so many other talented pass rushers in this draft. 

106 - David Bell(WR)Purdue - Solid possession WR That could likely contribute early to help offset the wait for Metchie getting fully healthy before he returns. Security blanket type WR that Lawrence can count on and hopefully build a long term rapport.

157 - Tyquan Thornton(WR)Baylor - You can never have too many targets for a young QB and I'm not sure Shenault and/or Marvin Jones are on the opening day roster if someone gives them the right offer. Thornton is a legit deep threat to keep the defense honest and Lawrence has the arm strength to make the defense pay.

180 - Brian Robinson Jr(RB)Alabama - In the 6th round you can take gambles on RB depth, and Robinson may not even be all that big a gamble. 

188 - Isaiah Likely(TE)Coastal Carolina - Engram has been known to miss a few games and Likely is a late TE that is versatile. Depth at receiver killed the offense last year and they spent a lot of money to fix that problem but a lot of those signings seem like very expensive band-aids imo.

197 - Chris Paul(T/G)Tulsa - Probably has the ability to add depth at both T and G in then NFL. 

198 - Jack Sanborn(LB)Wisconsin - Depth LB that should shine on special teams. 

222 - Smoke Monday(S)Auburn - Versatile athlete with a skill set to stand out on special teams as a rookie and could develop into much more.

235 - Matt Araiza(P)SD St. - When it comes to teams drafting this early, I dunno why more teams don't draft the best college punter in the country with their last pick in the 7th round. Probably has the best chance at making the final roster as any player picked in the 7th round imo. 

I don't really draft my team to score high on the PFF grading system, but the pick PFF liked the LEAST was Tyquan Thornton(WR) with a D+ for that pick. I was looking for a WR that complimented Bell, who is more of a possession receiver. In that context I'm still pretty happy with the pick knowing the WR room in JAX will be in flux. Marvin Jones is in his last year of his contract and there are rumors the new regime is already talking about moving on from Shenault. With WR's salaries exploding I don't think it hurts to have a few on rookie contracts, especially if you are going to spend as much as they did on Isabella.

 

[JaxBill]

yeah I would prefer they just take Evan Neal at 1. Seems like a no Brainer plug and play 10 yr LT and Cam Robinson inside or over to RT.

But there are 3 good tackles at top and I'd be good with any of them.

Aidan Hutchinson scares me because of his no show in championship game. I feel like Baalke is trying to talk himself into Travon Walker. 

Unfortunately I don't see anybody willing to trade up to 1 and Jags will screw this up badly.

Again.

 

[JaxBill]

my only qualm with your draft is that I think they need a DT somewhere in 3rd thru 5th rounds.

ETA - I don't think Araiza makes it out of the 6th.

 

[BoltBacker]

my only qualm with your draft is that I think they need a DT somewhere in 3rd thru 5th rounds.

In that range I often see DeMarvin Leal(Texas A&M) and Logan Hall(Houston). Would you rather have either of those players rather than Cameron Thomas?

 

[travdogg]

1. DE Aidan Hutchinson Michigan=Don't screw around, take the best player.

33. WR Skyy Moore Western Michigan =They added 2 FA WRs, but Moore is better than either of them.

65. LB Brian Asomoah Oklahoma=Rangy LB, should go 15-20 picks higher, but teams may have size concerns.

70. OL Luke Goedeke Central Michigan=I swear I don't have a Michigan bias. I think Goedeke probably starts at LG for the Jags. 

106. CB Demarri Harris Pittsburgh=Quality DB depth, with decent size at 5-11 196. Likely a dime as a rookie.

157. OL Josh Ezeudu UNC=Played T and G, solid depth piece

180. RB Brian Robinson Alabama=Has no business still being available this late and would be a good insurance policy with Etienne and Robinson coming off season ending injuries.

188. DT Curtis Brooks Cincinnati=Undersized gap shooter. Makes for a potential rotational piece. 

197. QB Brock Purdy Iowa State=I remember when he had 2nd round hype. I'm always a fan of taking a shot on a late QB, especially with the prices of experienced backups. 

198. S Leon O'Neal Texas A&M=He's a special teams player.

222. TE/FB Conner Heyward Michigan State=Showed up a lot on a lot of Kenneth Walker highlights as a good downfield blocker. Also a special teams guy.

235. CB Josh Wiliams Fayetteville State=A late favorite of mine, he's a developmental CB with great size at 6-3 195, coming from D2. Might end up a future starter, or nothing at all, needs at least a year of seasoning, but a worthy flier. 

 

[JaxBill]

In that range I often see DeMarvin Leal(Texas A&M) and Logan Hall(Houston). Would you rather have either of those players rather than Cameron Thomas?

I'd rather have a DT than David Bell. I like the other 2 WR picks.

 

[BoltBacker]

180. RB Brian Robinson Alabama=Has no business still being available this late and would be a good insurance policy with Etienne and Robinson coming off season ending injuries.

He isn't really going to go as late as PFF has him going in almost every draft, is he? Is there some character concerns? Did he test dirty on a drug test? What is going on? I assume someone here follows Alabama football(or their opponents) religiously that can explain why this guy might be lower than we think.

 

[travdogg]

He isn't really going to go as late as PFF has him going in almost every draft, is he? Is there some character concerns? Did he test dirty on a drug test? What is going on? I assume someone here follows Alabama football(or their opponents) religiously that can explain why this guy might be lower than we think.

I think he goes end of 3 top of 4. He's just really low for them, because he doesn't contribute in the passing game I think, and he's old for a rookie as he's already 23. I'm not a huge fan of his, but I'm not THAT low on him. 

 

[BoltBacker]

I think he goes end of 3 top of 4. He's just really low for them, because he doesn't contribute in the passing game I think, and he's old for a rookie as he's already 23. I'm not a huge fan of his, but I'm not THAT low on him. 

That's a fair explanation.

Not blasting you as the messenger, but I've never liked that argument at what I would consider a replaceable position. Sure I'd love for him to be a guy that was dominant at age 19yo but this isn't college basketball. He can't just say "Ok, I've proved I'm an NFL player as a Frosh so to the pro's I go". If he proves he's dominant at 19yo he either has a lot of wear-and-tear on his body over the past three seasons and suddenly the argument changes to "how much tread does he have left on those tires". OR he is dominant at 19yo but sustains at least one major injuries and people wonder if he's as good now as he was at 19. Maybe the worst of all would be the idea he was dominant at 19yo so he proved he could be dominant against older competition... and now he's just kind of slowly tailed off as he became draft eligible, that's why he's available on day 3. Is that the career arc we are looking for? Just seems very strange to punish a player for coming out of college as a senior.

Bottom line I just think if you get 4 years of production out of your day 3 pick you should be elated and have in mind trying to replace that player 3 years from now, and only NEEDING to replace him 4 years from now. If I was to spend a year or two developing a QB or a TE, and then give him a second contract...... yeah, sure it makes a difference how old Brandon Weeden is. But a RB that should "never get the (relatively) expensive second contract"?! It just seems at odds with their typical messaging on the subject. 

Again, this isn't a rant against you. It's just a rebuttal against that line of thinking on taking "old" 23yo RB's that I've heard in past years.

 

[travdogg]

That's a fair explanation.

Not blasting you as the messenger, but I've never liked that argument at what I would consider a replaceable position. Sure I'd love for him to be a guy that was dominant at age 19yo but this isn't college basketball. He can't just say "Ok, I've proved I'm an NFL player as a Frosh so to the pro's I go". If he proves he's dominant at 19yo he either has a lot of wear-and-tear on his body over the past three seasons and suddenly the argument changes to "how much tread does he have left on those tires". OR he is dominant at 19yo but sustains at least one major injuries and people wonder if he's as good now as he was at 19. Maybe the worst of all would be the idea he was dominant at 19yo so he proved he could be dominant against older competition... and now he's just kind of slowly tailed off as he became draft eligible, that's why he's available on day 3. Is that the career arc we are looking for? Just seems very strange to punish a player for coming out of college as a senior.

Bottom line I just think if you get 4 years of production out of your day 3 pick you should be elated and have in mind trying to replace that player 3 years from now, and only NEEDING to replace him 4 years from now. If I was to spend a year or two developing a QB or a TE, and then give him a second contract...... yeah, sure it makes a difference how old Brandon Weeden is. But a RB that should "never get the (relatively) expensive second contract"?! It just seems at odds with their typical messaging on the subject. 

Again, this isn't a rant against you. It's just a rebuttal against that line of thinking on taking "old" 23yo RB's that I've heard in past years.

That's an interesting way of looking at the RB position and I agree with a lot of it. I don't think the bolded argument happens much (at least for rookies being drafted) but is more factored into whether to give a 2nd contract, so in that particular instance, I don't see the contradiction with the messaging of RBs shouldn't get expensive 2nd contracts.

I do think the age argument tends to lean more on the side of the 22-23 year old who had a distinct physical advantage going against 18-19 year olds, won't have that in the NFL. Where as if a guy dominates when younger, it suggests that said player will be even better once they hit their physical peak. Not saying that is a lock to be the case every time, but I think evaluators both in the media and in the NFL itself seem to think that way, at least enough that it has some merit. 

In many cases, I think the way the NFL has gone, if a RB isn't a difference maker in the passing game, they shouldn't get a 2nd contract. Rushing value is much easier to replace, and is more OL/scheme/supporting cast dependent than a great pass catcher, who often has to win 1-1 matchups. Essentially, I can more closely understand a 2nd contract for say CMC or Kamara than I can for say, Mixon or Zeke, because they have harder to replace skill sets, and even then its not like they've been worth the money since being extended. But on a smaller scale, RBs who win in the passing game tend to hang around longer, somewhat due to less wear and tear, but also somewhat due to a more valuable skill set. 

At the same time a 23 year old Najee Harris went in round 1, in my opinion, not for his rushing skills, but because he wins so much in the passing game. In the 2021 draft, I felt very much that Javonte Williams was the best runner in that draft (something that I don't think was proven wrong as a rookie) but he was unproven in the passing game, because UNC used Carter in that role, whereas Harris and Etienne (another Senior) had proven to be major passing game assets, so they went higher. 

 A guy like Robinson isn't a winner in the passing game, so his avenue for creating value is lower than somebody who does, but maybe isn't as good a rusher as he is. Its why James Cook and Rachaad White will likely go ahead of him. Add in him being 23, and I think that explains why he is projected so low. 

 

[JaxBill]

He isn't really going to go as late as PFF has him going in almost every draft, is he? Is there some character concerns? Did he test dirty on a drug test? What is going on? I assume someone here follows Alabama football(or their opponents) religiously that can explain why this guy might be lower than we think.

There are a bunch of pretty good pro-ready RB in this draft. Value to be had in 3rd to 5th round. I also think Dameion Pierce will be a solid pro and I'm still perplexed why Mullen wouldn't run him more.

 

[JaxBill]

@AlyssaLang: Everybody is debating over who is going to be the #1 overall pick in the #NFLDraft … 

Adjust your boards and bets accordingly https://twitter.com/AlyssaLang/status/1519669226260381696/video/1