Jennings or Boldin (1 Viewer)

[Deuce'sWild]

Trying to sort out my cheetsheets before draft time comes. These are two guys I'm having a VERY tough time with.

Boldin has all the talent in the world, but Leinart scares me, and his contract situation scares me. He could 1) be motivated to impress other teams and have a great year, or 2) throw in the towel and decide not to help a team that won't help him.

Jennings had a great year last year, fantasy wise. He didn't have a ton of catches (53), but managed to catch 12 Touchdown passes from Favre. He's now receiving passes from an unproven QB, who I don't have much confidence in....and who we have no clue which WR he will prefer in that off.

I think I give the slight edge to Boldin, but I want to see what everyone else is thinking on these guys.

 

[[icon]]

Well.... one had fewer catches and who's value was largely dependent on an abnormally large number of TDs... only this year he's making a SUBSTANTIAL step downward in QB.

The other's situation is pretty much the same short of being a bit disgruntled in his contract... but he's stated he's going to fulfill his contractual obligations and not sit out.

Pretty easy decision to me.

 

[perry147]

We need draft robot.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

Well.... one had fewer catches and who's value was largely dependent on an abnormally large number of TDs... only this year he's making a SUBSTANTIAL step downward in QB.The other's situation is pretty much the same short of being a bit disgruntled in his contract... but he's stated he's going to fulfill his contractual obligations and not sit out. Pretty easy decision to me.

How about the fact that Boldin got fewer looks from Leinart than he did from Warner?You act like we shouldn't be concerned about Leinart, but should be about Rodgers. Why?

 

[kutta]

Well.... one had fewer catches and who's value was largely dependent on an abnormally large number of TDs... only this year he's making a SUBSTANTIAL step downward in QB.The other's situation is pretty much the same short of being a bit disgruntled in his contract... but he's stated he's going to fulfill his contractual obligations and not sit out. Pretty easy decision to me.

How about the fact that Boldin got fewer looks from Leinart than he did from Warner?You act like we shouldn't be concerned about Leinart, but should be about Rodgers. Why?

Are you sure that's a fact?Games Leinart and Boldin both played:Boldin targets from Leinart: 7,8,8 AVG: 7.67Games Warner and Boldin both playedBoldin targets from Warner: 8,14,6,8,6,8,2,8,14,5 AVG: 7.9It's pretty close, and Leinart's sample set is very small. I think it's too close to say one targets Boldin more than the other.

 

[baconisgood]

Well.... one had fewer catches and who's value was largely dependent on an abnormally large number of TDs... only this year he's making a SUBSTANTIAL step downward in QB.The other's situation is pretty much the same short of being a bit disgruntled in his contract... but he's stated he's going to fulfill his contractual obligations and not sit out. Pretty easy decision to me.

Jennings value is dependent on his YAC (which translates into TDs when he breaks them)- boldin had 18 more receptions last year but 70 fewer yards. Is Jenning's ability to accelerate and fight off tackles really dependent on his QB? Why would this be so?

 

[EBF]

This isn't even close IMO. Boldin is 2nd among active NFL WRs in yards per game behind only Torry Holt. Jennings has been a nice surprise, but I don't think he's done much to warrant consideration over a perennial 1,300 yard threat like Boldin.

 

[Dexter Manley]

I think both of these guys are significantly overvalued this year for well-discussed reasons, and I'll be shocked if I end up with either of them on any of my teams. Saying that, I would take Boldin over Jennings, as I don't see much chance of Jennings duplicating his TD's from last season.

I would easily take Calvin Johnson over both of these guys, and at least one of them usually goes before him in the mock drafts I've seen.

 

[[icon]]

Well.... one had fewer catches and who's value was largely dependent on an abnormally large number of TDs... only this year he's making a SUBSTANTIAL step downward in QB.The other's situation is pretty much the same short of being a bit disgruntled in his contract... but he's stated he's going to fulfill his contractual obligations and not sit out. Pretty easy decision to me.

Jennings value is dependent on his YAC (which translates into TDs when he breaks them)- boldin had 18 more receptions last year but 70 fewer yards. Is Jenning's ability to accelerate and fight off tackles really dependent on his QB? Why would this be so?

Sorry if the way I phrased it confused anyone. Sure... he may still be able to break for TDs.... but does anyone think Rodgers will be able to get him the ball as well as Farve? And while his TD rate is dependent on YAC, TDs are still far more variable (and more difficult to project) than other metrics.... meaning a player who's value is based on an abnormally high REC/TD rate is more likely to regress to a more typical rate...ESPECIALLY when coupled with a substantial downgrade at QB. Look at his REC/TD rate. The ONLY other WR who's caught fewer than 70 passes to earn 10+ Touchdowns is Reggie Williams of Jacksonville (38 REC for 10TD in 2007). How has Williams fared in previous years? 5TD in over 100 Receptions spread over 3 years. Jennings? In 2006 he scored 3 TDs on only 8 fewer receptions than he had on 2008. FBG has Rodgers completing almost as many passes as Farve did in 06 and 05... yet only has Williams catching about a dozen more balls than last year. Does anyone REALLY think Williams will maintain that freakishly high TD rate? Look I'm not saying it's right for certain.. but it's pretty reasonable to assume that Jennings' numbers are going to be hard pressed to stay where they're at or improve whereas Boldin is much more likely to finish with more FP. The only leagues I would take Jennings in is TD heavy leagues.. and even then I'm not 100%. In PPR or yardage heavy leagues it's pretty much a no brainer (for me anyway) to take boldin)

 

[moderated]

I think both of these guys are significantly overvalued this year for well-discussed reasons, and I'll be shocked if I end up with either of them on any of my teams. Saying that, I would take Boldin over Jennings, as I don't see much chance of Jennings duplicating his TD's from last season. I would easily take Calvin Johnson over both of these guys, and at least one of them usually goes before him in the mock drafts I've seen.

I agree, Boldin over Jennings, and most people with half a brain would take Calvin over either of them.

 

[perry147]

Well.... one had fewer catches and who's value was largely dependent on an abnormally large number of TDs... only this year he's making a SUBSTANTIAL step downward in QB.The other's situation is pretty much the same short of being a bit disgruntled in his contract... but he's stated he's going to fulfill his contractual obligations and not sit out. Pretty easy decision to me.

Jennings value is dependent on his YAC (which translates into TDs when he breaks them)- boldin had 18 more receptions last year but 70 fewer yards. Is Jenning's ability to accelerate and fight off tackles really dependent on his QB? Why would this be so?

Sorry if the way I phrased it confused anyone. Sure... he may still be able to break for TDs.... but does anyone think Rodgers will be able to get him the ball as well as Farve? And while his TD rate is dependent on YAC, TDs are still far more variable (and more difficult to project) than other metrics.... meaning a player who's value is based on an abnormally high REC/TD rate is more likely to regress to a more typical rate...ESPECIALLY when coupled with a substantial downgrade at QB. Look I'm not saying it's right for certain.. but it's pretty reasonable to assume that Jennings' numbers are going to be hard pressed to stay where they're at or improve whereas Boldin is much more likely to finish with more FP. The only leagues I would take Jennings in is TD heavy leagues.. and even then I'm not 100%. In PPR or yardage heavy leagues it's pretty much a no brainer (for me anyway) to take boldin)

Of the GB receivers Driver is the much better value in PPR.

 

[amnesiac]

We need draft robot.

We. Do. Not. Need. Draft. Robot.seriously though, i've been impressed with Jennings ability after the catch, and the highlight reel from the game Rogers got in (against i think the Cowboys), those two looked pretty good together. not that i'm advocating him over Boldin, just that i'm thinking Jennings could have some sucess this year.

 

[slayer666]

Boldin has averaged something like 6 receptions a start during his career, so in a PPR format it would be no contest. Even in non-PPR, I would rather have Boldin, who should be playing angry this year because his thinks his is funny.

 

[Todem]

Boldin in a landslide.

 

[the spanker]

Boldin in a landslide.

Was the outcome ever in doubt?