Jeremy Kerley, sleeper pick? (1 Viewer)

[Phenomena]

THIS is what I've been waiting to see all summer - someone dropping the majority of the waiver budget on the first guy with a sniff of fresh air.

Welcome to a high 2017 draft slot!

Maybe you don't understand the league... this is a superflex with two additional flex... so basically 2 QB, 2RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 FLEX. In addition there are 8 bench spots. Everyone and their mother is rostered. Every RB handcuff's handcuff is rostered. Some people even rostered backup QBs in case their starters got hurt (lol).   E. Rogers was drafted.  The waiver wire is a desert. There won't be a valuable RB picked up off of it all year. If there's a slot WR getting 10+ targets per game he's worth blowing useless waiver money on adding, especially given you're going to have to start him when the byes start.

 

[massraider]

People go crazy when a back gets a 15 carry opportunity for two weeks, and this guy gets no love. 

You have a coach with a history of force feeding his slot guy, two outside WRs they are not good, and a dink and  dunk QB.  

Target hog on a bad team seems like a very possible outcome here.

A further question:  How many targets will he get when the 49ers are trailing, as they probably will be the rest of the year?

 

[beerbuff]

Maybe you don't understand the league... this is a superflex with two additional flex... so basically 2 QB, 2RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 FLEX. In addition there are 8 bench spots. Everyone and their mother is rostered. Every RB handcuff's handcuff is rostered. Some people even rostered backup QBs in case their starters got hurt (lol).   E. Rogers was drafted.  The waiver wire is a desert. There won't be a valuable RB picked up off of it all year. If there's a slot WR getting 10+ targets per game he's worth blowing useless waiver money on adding, especially given you're going to have to start him when the byes start.

I'd wait another week before making such a desperate move, there were not many injuries in week 1 or offer a lower amount if you must bid for him.  Ty Williams or Mike Wallace might be better adds at a lower price.

 

[fred_1_15301]

I'd wait another week before making such a desperate move, there were not many injuries in week 1 or offer a lower amount if you must bid for him.  Ty Williams or Mike Wallace might be better adds at a lower price.

He just explained his league rules.  Based on that, the guys you listed are likely not even available.  In that deep of a league, he can't wait another week or the price will go up further or he risks not getting the player at all.

 

[Stealthycat]

this

You have a coach with a history of force feeding his slot guy, two outside WRs they are not good, and a dink and  dunk QB.  

Target hog on a bad team seems like a very possible outcome here

.

 

[ponchsox]

After losing Allen my WR depth is depleted so I picked up Kerley and Beasley. I hope this guy can at least bye a bye week plug and play or a decent flex option in a PPR.

 

[VikingFrog]

Also returning punts.  Always the chance for a few extra points on a random TD.

 

[FF Ninja]

Maybe you don't understand the league... this is a superflex with two additional flex... so basically 2 QB, 2RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 FLEX. In addition there are 8 bench spots. Everyone and their mother is rostered. Every RB handcuff's handcuff is rostered. Some people even rostered backup QBs in case their starters got hurt (lol).   E. Rogers was drafted.  The waiver wire is a desert. There won't be a valuable RB picked up off of it all year. If there's a slot WR getting 10+ targets per game he's worth blowing useless waiver money on adding, especially given you're going to have to start him when the byes start.

How many teams? Because 12 teams x 18 roster spots = 216 players. That's not actually that deep. It's deeper than a 1/3/2/1 office league with 5 bench spots, but relative to semi-serious leagues it's not very deep, especially considering it is superflex so there are more QBs rostered than normal. Given that, I would've advised 10-15% tops for Kerley if full PPR. In standard, I'd have said 2-3%. Did you end up getting him?

People go crazy when a back gets a 15 carry opportunity for two weeks, and this guy gets no love. 

You have a coach with a history of force feeding his slot guy, two outside WRs they are not good, and a dink and  dunk QB.  

Target hog on a bad team seems like a very possible outcome here.

A further question:  How many targets will he get when the 49ers are trailing, as they probably will be the rest of the year?

Torrey isn't great, but he's not "not good" either. If I could get him as a throw in, I would. He got 6 targets which isn't a ton, but he's pretty efficient. One of these two WRs (Torrey or Kerley) will put up at least WR3 numbers this year.

 

[jurrassic]

I'd wait another week before making such a desperate move, there were not many injuries in week 1 or offer a lower amount if you must bid for him.  Ty Williams or Mike Wallace might be better adds at a lower price.

Both Wallace at Williams went for over 20% of FAAB in my league.  People are spending on these guys

 

[massraider]

Torrey isn't great, but he's not "not good" either. If I could get him as a throw in, I would. He got 6 targets which isn't a ton, but he's pretty efficient. One of these two WRs (Torrey or Kerley) will put up at least WR3 numbers this year.

I could have expanded on that a bit.  Torrey's strength, deep ball, is rendered useless with this QB.  If Kaepernick were to take over, Torrey's value goes up and Kerley's goes down.  

A fair question is:  Is Kerley good enough to keep this job?  Has Patton been playing the slot?  What about Streater?

 

[FF Ninja]

I could have expanded on that a bit.  Torrey's strength, deep ball, is rendered useless with this QB.  If Kaepernick were to take over, Torrey's value goes up and Kerley's goes down.  

A fair question is:  Is Kerley good enough to keep this job?  Has Patton been playing the slot?  What about Streater?

Ugh. I respectfully disagree that Kaepernick is good for anyone's value. Keep in mind Kaepernick started games 1-8 last year and it didn't help Torrey one bit. Here are Torrey's 1st/2nd half splits:

Games 1-8: 31 targets, 16 rec, 342 yards, 2 TDs

Games 9-16: 31 targets, 17 rec, 321 yards, 2 TDs

 

[massraider]

If Kaep takes over, I don't want anyone.  But he can throw it deep.  

I'm not arguing for what happens if Kaep takes over.

The point is that Smith cannot be a good deep threat with poor man's Alex Smith back there.  But can Kerley be Jarvis Landry?  Maybe.

 

[Phenomena]

How many teams? Because 12 teams x 18 roster spots = 216 players. That's not actually that deep. It's deeper than a 1/3/2/1 office league with 5 bench spots, but relative to semi-serious leagues it's not very deep, especially considering it is superflex so there are more QBs rostered than normal. Given that, I would've advised 10-15% tops for Kerley if full PPR. In standard, I'd have said 2-3%. Did you end up getting him?

Torrey isn't great, but he's not "not good" either. If I could get him as a throw in, I would. He got 6 targets which isn't a ton, but he's pretty efficient. One of these two WRs (Torrey or Kerley) will put up at least WR3 numbers this year.

It's full PPR. I lowered it to 15% and got him. There were higher adds for people who were lesser players (slot WR for the Jets went for 17%).  I think 15% was about perfect to get him. 

In all of my non-PPR or short bench leagues he is still on the waiver wire. I guess nobody believes in him. I tend to roster lots of RB handcuffs over decent bench WRs so probably only picking him up in the few full-PPR leagues.

 

[FF Ninja]

If Kaep takes over, I don't want anyone.  But he can throw it deep.  

I'm not arguing for what happens if Kaep takes over.

The point is that Smith cannot be a good deep threat with poor man's Alex Smith back there.  But can Kerley be Jarvis Landry?  Maybe.

I guess we'll see. Nick Foles was very productive in Kelly's system, even throwing the ball deep. I'm open to the possibility that Gabbert revives his career in SF with Kelly and for that to happen, he'll need to get the ball to his vertical threat. I don't think he's got a weak arm.

 

[FF Ninja]

It's full PPR. I lowered it to 15% and got him. There were higher adds for people who were lesser players (slot WR for the Jets went for 17%).  I think 15% was about perfect to get him. 

In all of my non-PPR or short bench leagues he is still on the waiver wire. I guess nobody believes in him. I tend to roster lots of RB handcuffs over decent bench WRs so probably only picking him up in the few full-PPR leagues.

Yeah, I think the slot WR for SF can be valuable in ppr because he'll rack up catches, but you needs yards and TDs in standard, so I wouldn't bother with him there.

I can't really fault anyone for going after Enunwa, though. Fitzpatrick loves throwing to the slot. But since Kerley has less competition for targets, I'd give the edge to Kerley in ppr.

 

[flapgreen]

Surprisingly picked up Kerley after waivers. 

 

[Skeletore Eh]

good returns so far for those that picked Kerley up for free.  I tend to think kaep taking over would be a bad thing but in the mean time he's an every week starter in start 3+ wr leagues

 

[DirtyCashDylan]

I just happened to pick up Kerley before the game. Thank God I'm struggling for a WR3. Choo chooooo

 

[Pwingles]

bye weeks and a few injuries led me to choose between Ginn, Latimer, Treadwell, or Kerley. *fist pump* picked the right one

 

[zftcg]

Picked him up and was all set to start him, then panicked at the last minute and subbed in Woods. So not only did I miss out on last night, I probably won't be able to get him back unless he clears waivers. 

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

In the MBSL1 survivor league, Jeremy Kerley was my 17th-round pick (in an 18-teamer). So far this year, he's outscored every one of my RBs and all but one of my other WRs. 

I don't play in any leagues other than these that draft that deep, but it was obvious there was value to be had out of a slot WR paired with a noodle-arm like Gabbert on a team that would be playing from behind a lot. Congrats to all who had the stones to start this guy the last two weeks.

 

[groin pains]

Anyone liking Kerley this week with T. Smith likely out and Vance McDonald on IR?  SF should be playing from behind in this game perhaps giving him a few extra targets.  I just cant bring myself to start A Rob.

 

[fffan21]

Signed with the Jets.

Is he, Kearse or Anderson the #1WR?

 

[zamboni]

Hard to get too excited about Kerley at this stage. He flashed a bit with the Niners early last year, but if he couldn't hold down one of those WR spots in SF - whose WR situation is hardly any better than that of the Jets - he can't have much left.

I like Anderson out of this group because at least he seems to have the most upside at this point, 

 

[squistion]

After the Buffalo signing, I have been quietly picking him for nothing in all of my PPR dynasty leagues where I have roster space. If Zay Jones mental issues are not resolved or surface again, Kerley may have some value

BigTimeFootball®‏ @BigTimeFootball Apr 17

Analysis: Jeremy Kerley has a chance to make a big impact for Bills

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2018/4/17/17245850/all-22-analysis-buffalo-bills-free-agent-receiver-jeremy-kerley-opportunity-offense?

 

[NeverEnough]

After the Buffalo signing, I have been quietly picking him for nothing in all of my PPR dynasty leagues where I have roster space. If Zay Jones mental issues are not resolved or surface again, Kerley may have some value

BigTimeFootball®‏ @BigTimeFootball Apr 17

Analysis: Jeremy Kerley has a chance to make a big impact for Bills

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2018/4/17/17245850/all-22-analysis-buffalo-bills-free-agent-receiver-jeremy-kerley-opportunity-offense?

Those of us in leagues with locked rosters till our rookie draft must wait :(