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**Jets at Bengals**(-6.5, 44.5) 1:00 (3 Viewers)

I know its the Jets, who are down arguably their 2 best players (Wilson, Sauce) and on the road, but I can't help but feel a Bengals let down game here. Maybe Quinnen Williams just destroys the Bengals interior and gets on old man Flacco, and maybe Breece Hall rips up a defense that gets crushed by the run. I just don't think this is gonna be some Bengals blowout. I'm not sure the Bengals are built to really dominate against anyone.

I think the Jets cover.
 
I’m starting Isaiah Davis over JCM in my Gorilla league. I have no confidence in JCM; this is due to how the Redskins staff is using him. Kansas City is brutal against the run. Breece Hall may be hobbled a bit with a minor injury and the Bengals D is atrocious.
 
Bengals were a mess but have somehow become credible again after calling The AARP helpline
The Jets are a mess and show no signs of pulling out of it,they are currently the most dysfunctional team in The NFL
so...

The Not Much Bungles- 29

The Very Much Jests- 20
 
personally, i don’t know how this is less than a TD. if the jets can’t compete with the panfers at home, the panfers…..how will they go on the road and stop a legitimate nfl qb and jamarr chase? no wilson, no gardner. hall is nicked, mason taylor dinged. fields is forced to start simply because there are no other options. this is a 20 point game,

bungles 33
jest 12
 
You can say whatever you want, but the results speak for themselves and they are no longer playing hard for their coach.

Don’t get anything twisted.
 
17-3 to 17-10 to 24-10 to 24-13....Jets might not appear to be close but the Bengals defense can be sliced apart by almost anyone

-Fields 11/16/123/TD, that's better than he's looked in many weeks, 5/17 on the ground
 
They’re already telling heartwarming stories about how Joe got to Cincinnati with the female human interest story reporter?

Hoooo boy

This game is already ovah
But it's not over, every time I look up the Jets are making it a 1 score game

-Witching Hour game right now

Yeah, I guess if you keep running the ball against one of least invested-in defenses in the game it happens.
 
All of the analytics guys are going to praise him for that move. They’re statistically right. Kind of. I don’t know, man.

I think missed XPs have to be balanced against who YOUR kicker is, but I DO NOT fault Glenn. This is what they’ve been telling us ad nauseam.
 
The announcers are absolutely flabbergasted and confused about the Jets going for 2 after scoring a TD when down 14. This has been a very regular thing the last 5 years as it's an analytics play.

I get people disagreeing with it, but these guys are genuinely shocked like they have never heard of it before. How can this be their profession and this is the first they're hearing of this? It's unbelievable.
 
Not a good idea to bypass the XP down 38-24, just kick it and make it 38-31
-Another odd coaching move by Aaron Glenn
Yes, was just going to say the same. Misplaced aggressiveness when other times he's overly passive.

But despite having some good production today this is not the offerne you try and "win the game" on a 2 point play.

I don’t think this has been examined enough

My point is that it has to be team-specific. But in the aggregate, that’s the right move.

And they got it.
 
Not a good idea to bypass the XP down 38-24, just kick it and make it 38-31
-Another odd coaching move by Aaron Glenn

You and meno are statistically incorrect when it comes to win probability.
you are probably incorrect to think the win probability calculated with the Fields and this offense pass catching weapons is on par with anything close to the league average

Nope. Already covered. Posted this before you all commented.

eta* it’s not worth ruffled feathers over this, especially since I agree with you about taking your particular team into consideration and not necessarily going with what the league average is.

All of the analytics guys are going to praise him for that move. They’re statistically right. Kind of. I don’t know, man.

I think missed XPs have to be balanced against who YOUR kicker is, but I DO NOT fault Glenn. This is what they’ve been telling us ad nauseam.
 

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