Jet Jaguar is one of my favorite MST3Ks, I always think about that whenever these teams play.
14 feels like a high spread for this Jags team, but the Jets are that bad. Starting Brady Cook, I think the Jets are no lock to top 100 passing yards. Maybe Breece Hall breaks a screen or something, but I don't see any real offensive success beyond Hall, and I think the Jags quietly might have the best run D in the NFL. Josh Hines-Allen is an elite rusher, and while I like the Jets young OTs, they are gonna lose if left on an island against him. I expect sacks and turnovers, and the Jags to be a top-3 defense play.
For the Jags offense, Brian Thomas got deep a few times last week, but the fact is, he's the #3 in this passing game right now. Jakobi Meyers is the clear #1, and they manufacture looks for him. He's a high-end WR2 in this matchup. Brenton Strange is a solid option at TE (he looks really impressive on tape) even though the Jets aren't bad against TEs. But the real big guy this week looks like Travis Etienne. I don't know if Tuten's smaller workload was injury or fumble related (probably both) but the Jets give up a lot of big plays, and Etienne shouldn't find himself lacking in the opportunity department. I think he's an arguable top-5 RB this week.
Jaguars-28
Jets-14
I think that 14 includes a garbage time score.