Jimmy Graham - overvalued? (1 Viewer)

[Banger]

Let me start by saying that I like Graham and had him on my team last year at the end of the year and he did ok. So now's the time of the year that I'm looking through the rankings and figuring out which guys I want to target and avoid and one guy in the TE crew that jumped out at me on the FBG rankings was Graham (6th). I know he's young, athletic and Shockey's gone but NO hasn't exactly been a TE heaven. Since Brees has been there they have ranked 53, 25, 17, 18 and 23. Now they weren't the most talented TEs in the league and Graham has probably more talent than any of them but still.

I'm not sure if I'm missing something but how do you take a guy that is likely the 4th option on the offense over Winslow, Cooley, Miller (before he was a Hawk), etc. who will be the #1/#2 option (albeit lower powered offenses). Is there a plan to focus a good bit of the offense around Graham that I haven't seen?

 

[Stinkin Ref]

I can just really draw on what I saw last year and what I heard his coach say about him....

1. It seemed like Brees really looked to him last year down the stretch....even in crucial situations (TD late against ATL being one of them I think, and I think he may have even gone back to him on a two point conversion, I could be wrong)....they seem to have some chemistry

2. His coach thinks he will end up being considered the steal of his draft class. Payton recognizes his talent and skills (big athletic target, matchup problems, etc) and I think they will look to draw up plays around him. They felt strong enough to let Shockey walk without blinking an eye.

3. I 'll add this...I am also a little concerned about Colston staying healthy and how his injuries may impact his game. Because of this and the matchup isssues Graham can create, I would not be surprised to see Graham become the #1 option in the red zone next year. I think Bress trusts him to make the play.

Not a ton of stats, etc to back all this up, but I think he jumps into the top 3 this year and stays there for several years.

 

[shadyridr]

Hes a much better red zone threat than any TE the Saints ever had.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Using FBG scoring, Graham had 60 fantasy points in the last 8 games (26/307/5). Projected over a full season would have placed him in the top 5. Also, Saints TEs had over 1000 receiving yards. Graham figures to get the majority of the TE numbers this year. He is also 6 ft 7 and had 5 TDs in the last 8 games. He should be a big part of the red zone offense. I expect double-digit TDs. Graham is a total mismatch for defenses. I don't see much downside.

 

[We Tigers]

I have three main tiers of TEs for this season. The first is the 5 obvious names, and the third includes about 7 guys who have little to distinguish them from one another.

The second tier includes Graham, Daniels, Lewis, and maybe Keller--the guys who have a ton of upside, more than the cluster of likely 650-700/5 TEs below them. The risk with Graham is that he could be as low as the 4th option in New Orleans, but the upside is that he's the 1 or 2. He might be a little overvalued, but in the 6th or 7th, I think his potential upside outweighs the potential disappointment. Worst case, he's another 700/5 guy; best case, he's a beast.

 

[Banger]

Good posts all thanks. I think double digit TDs is a lot to ask for from a TE but when thinking about the NO offense they really don't have a "go to" red zone option. With his height and ability maybe he's the guy. Good stuff...consider me enlightened.

That's why this place is the best.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

I don't want to repeat verbatim what I posted in the spotlight thread for Jimmy Graham, except I agree he's way overvalued. I think he puts together some nice cummulative stats, but will be wildly inconsistent and cause owners ulcers worrying about matchup plays. He's no plug and play. Not yet. The preseason is only going to build his hype as he will get lots of PT.

The reason I am pessimistic is the same I am for Saints receivers in general. Brees uses different receivers and different game plans each week. It's like a rotation of "student of the week" at your child's classroom. As an owner, it gets to be maddening. I don't doubt that Graham's overall stats will be impressive, but I'd only take around TE 8 or 9 and so I'll likely miss out on him. And if he falls, I will take the next TE on the very next pick to solidify a TE rotation.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

couple other things...and people can rip these apart but just my thoughts....no particular order

1. Gates: already on PUP, lingering foot issues

2. Finley: coming off injury and lots of receiving talent around him (Jennings, Driver, Jones, Nelson, Cobb)

3. Davis: QB issues...

4. Clark: getting older, Tamme earned more playing time, they might try to keep Clark fresh...lots of options here as well in passing game

5. Witten: no issues, ppr stud

6. Z. Miller: new team...and QB issues?

7. Cooley: QB...?

8. Winslow: nothing to really see here

Personally, I would feel pretty good about getting Graham after some of these guys are gone....let somebody else deal with it and give me Graham later while I add a couple players at other positions in rounds 3-5....I realize Graham has some other options in the passing game around him as well, but not nearly what GB and IND have...

talent and opportunity....and Graham has both....plus one of the best QB's in the business and Bush is gone....

ETA: I fully expect Graham to be the 6th TE off the board in most of my drafts so that is what I am preparing for when I look at trying to get him, and to be quite honest, because of some of the issues above, he may end up going before some of those guys in the top 5...

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Go back and view some old tapes of Gates his rookie year. It's a pretty similar comparison with ex BBall guy transitting to TE. This guy is 6'8 and athletic. Brees is a stud. How is anyone gone cover him in teh red zone (especially while worrying about colston, sproles etc . I like him a lot this year. More importantly Payton and Brees do too.

 

[saintfool]

i am a little more measured in my enthusiasm for graham. the saints will likely be passing the ball less this year than last year. they have depth at RB which was absent during graham's ascent to FF hype. they still have thomas at TE, who is a proven blocker, and graham still hasn't shown the ability to do that. opposing defenses know that they have to come at Brees hard, especially at the outside, and graham needs to be able to help a mediocre bushrod or creaky stinchcomb. toss in the fact that colston looks great in camp after surgery, meachem looks like a different player and lance moore is lance moore, and this offense is loaded. opportunities abound for everyone.

that said, graham will have tremendous value if for no other reason than brees seems to like him. he's in a potent offense and will present matchup problems every time he's on the field. he will be a red zone target. i think he's a year away from being a unholy terror.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

i am a little more measured in my enthusiasm for graham. the saints will likely be passing the ball less this year than last year. they have depth at RB which was absent during graham's ascent to FF hype. they still have thomas at TE, who is a proven blocker, and graham still hasn't shown the ability to do that. opposing defenses know that they have to come at Brees hard, especially at the outside, and graham needs to be able to help a mediocre bushrod or creaky stinchcomb. toss in the fact that colston looks great in camp after surgery, meachem looks like a different player and lance moore is lance moore, and this offense is loaded. opportunities abound for everyone.

that said, graham will have tremendous value if for no other reason than brees seems to like him. he's in a potent offense and will present matchup problems every time he's on the field. he will be a red zone target. i think he's a year away from being a unholy terror.

gotta ask...why a year away...?

 

[saintfool]

i am a little more measured in my enthusiasm for graham. the saints will likely be passing the ball less this year than last year. they have depth at RB which was absent during graham's ascent to FF hype. they still have thomas at TE, who is a proven blocker, and graham still hasn't shown the ability to do that. opposing defenses know that they have to come at Brees hard, especially at the outside, and graham needs to be able to help a mediocre bushrod or creaky stinchcomb. toss in the fact that colston looks great in camp after surgery, meachem looks like a different player and lance moore is lance moore, and this offense is loaded. opportunities abound for everyone.

that said, graham will have tremendous value if for no other reason than brees seems to like him. he's in a potent offense and will present matchup problems every time he's on the field. he will be a red zone target. i think he's a year away from being a unholy terror.

gotta ask...why a year away...?

he can improve his blocking and be an every down player. he will have more experience playing the position. he only played college football for one year before entering the draft. he's still a work in progress but suspect will get better very quickly.