meyerj31 said:
Can someone @ FBG explain to me why Jordy is ranked WR21? He's behind Torrey, Decker, Colston, etc...
Jordy is the 3rd highest scoring WR after three weeks and the most targeted WR for the best QB in the league... criminally underrated. He should be WR12 minimum. His health is obviously not an issue and he will continue to see tons of deep shots down the field, as well as goal-line looks, once Lacy is back and there is a threat of the run game.
Anyone who has watched him play can attest that he is catching everything that comes his way. He has displayed some amazing body control and athleticism so far this year. On several catches he had to torque his body around to get the ball, then somehow managed to keep both feet in bounds only inches from the sideline. He's been more impressive-looking than Cobb so far.
No, they really cannot explain it. It has to be a mistake, and that should be the answer.
A nit, but Nelson ranks 21st depending on scoring system. In standard FBGs scoring (= no PPR), Nelson ranks 17th. Still low, but not as low. In TD-heavy scoring, Nelson jumps to 14th. So the projections seem to be that Nelson is going to have a lot of touchdowns, a good amount of yards, and not many receptions- which seems like an accurate profile for Jordy Nelson.
Dodds is the guy who compiles the going forward list, and he's extremely thorough. He actually makes rest-of-season projections for every single player and basically creates a brand new VBD list every single week. There have been errors in the spreadsheet before, but for the most part, if a player is ranked somewhere, it's usually because Dodds meant to rank him there.
If I had to guess Dodds' reasons, I'd imagine it'd probably start with the fact that Nelson is currently in an 8-way tie for 35th in targets with just 23 through three games. Cobb has 33, and James Jones has 22. Nelson has been lighting the league on fire because his per-target stats are absolutely insane (78% catch rate on a whopping 16+ yards per reception, good for 12.7 yards per target). If one projects Nelson's per-game targets to remain constant, but his per-target numbers to regress by 25-33% (to a still-huge but reasonable 9-10 yards per target), then I can see how one could reasonably expect Nelson to come back to earth. I wouldn't personally project that, but I can understand why someone else might. I happen to agree that Nelson is too low, but I thought Nelson was too low before the season, too.
Looking at the different projected point totals and doing a little bit of working backwards, it looks like Dodds has Nelson projected for somewhere in the neighborhood of 57 receptions, 860 yards, and 6-7 TDs going forward, which would put him around 75/1150/10 over the full season. Low, but not indefensibly so. Nelson is a top 5 receiver today, but look at the top 10 receivers through three weeks last year: Green, Calvin, Wallace, Julio, Torrey Smith, Austin, Amendola, Bowe, Wayne, and Stevie Johnson. Of those 10 guys, only four (FOUR!) ranked in the top 20 from weeks 4-17 (Calvin, Green, Julio, Wayne). Of those four, only Calvin and Green ranked in the top 10. It seems crazy to be saying that a guy who is top 5 today will not be top 20 the rest of the way, but it's not crazy at all. In fact, it's incredibly common.
so much for this prediction
