Justin Blackmon Dynasty Value Going Forward (1 Viewer)

[lynx4ben]

So Justin had a finally strung together back to back weeks. Today wasn't a barn burner and a late TD saved the line but it is what it is.

Here is a two time blinkoff award winner with back to back 100 catch seasons. A college monster in the name of Crabtree and Fitz.

But what is he?

The knock was his long speed coming out of college and his height.

He addressed his speed with a 4.46 pro day. Still has yet to display the speed at the NFL level.

He addressed his height with a good vertical at 33". Also has a knack for great ball judgement.

His hands... GREAT. His toughness.... GREAT.

Still I'm not overly convinced. Could he be an improved Crabtree? A good possession WR but is not going to translate college dominance into NFL dominance.

Or is he on the verge of breaking into the elite tier in the NFL?

Thoughts?

 

[Mario Kart]

Top 5 pick next year in PPR. Top 6 pick in non-PPR leagues.

 

[lynx4ben]

Top 5 pick next year in PPR. Top 6 pick in non-PPR leagues.

He wouldn't make my top 5 dyno WRs much less overall.

 

[Mario Kart]

Top 5 pick next year in PPR. Top 6 pick in non-PPR leagues.

He wouldn't make my top 5 dyno WRs much less overall.

Your groupthink is wrong.

 

[lynx4ben]

Top 5 pick next year in PPR. Top 6 pick in non-PPR leagues.

He wouldn't make my top 5 dyno WRs much less overall.

Your groupthink is wrong.

Group think may be the flavor of the day. But I'd stay safe with my top 5 sure things at WR.1. Green2. Calvin3. Julio4. Dez5. MarshallThrow in Cruz, DThomas, and Harvins as guys who could easily crack that top 5.Blackmon could suffer from the Fitz like QB problems for a while. Jax needs to look at a QB at the top of the draft.

 

[EBF]

Henne was a god send for the Jax passing game. He might not be a winner, but I think he can at least fill the box scores.

Blackmon hasn't flashed as much ability as I'd hoped, but I still think he's a solid player to own in redraft and dynasty. I think he can be a FF WR2 or, at worst, a Crabtree type.

 

[JPeso]

In terms of dynasty WR ADP.. I would say WR20 or so in this coming year's "reasonably solid" leagues (not all dynasty leagues are created equal, thus not all ADP is relevant data for what you need to happen in your potentially "reasonably solid" league). I supportable faction could feel WR16 this offseason with a strong finish through week 17.. but WR10 would be a jump that I would lift my pinkie and scoff at.. Are you really taking Blackmon over some of these absolute horses out here running around getting fed and in much neater jersey logo and color combinations?!

 

[zamboni]

I think the presence of Shorts may limit his upside. While having a solid WR across Blackmon will help, unless the Jags turn into an air-it-out offense, there may not be enough targets for Blackmon to elevate his game to the next level.

 

[EBF]

I think the presence of Shorts may limit his upside. While having a solid WR across Blackmon will help, unless the Jags turn into an air-it-out offense, there may not be enough targets for Blackmon to elevate his game to the next level.

I actually think they'll work well together. Kind of like a Nicks/Cruz combo in some ways.

 

[lynx4ben]

I think the presence of Shorts may limit his upside. While having a solid WR across Blackmon will help, unless the Jags turn into an air-it-out offense, there may not be enough targets for Blackmon to elevate his game to the next level.

I actually think they'll work well together. Kind of like a Nicks/Cruz combo in some ways.

You figure if this is your top 20 Dyno WRs does Blackmon deserve to be in it?

[*]Green, AJ

[*]Johnson, Calvin

[*]Jones, Julio

[*]Bryant, Dez

[*]Marshall, Brandon

[*]Cruz, Victor

[*]Harvin, Percy

[*]Thomas, Demaryius

[*]Nelson, Jordy

[*]Randall Cobb

[*]Nicks, Hakeem

[*]Fitzgerald, Larry

[*]Wallace, Mike

[*]Johnson, Andre

[*]White, Roddy

[*]Jackson, Vincent

[*]Decker, Eric

[*]Justin Blackmon

[*]Brown, Antinio

[*]Smith, Torrey

 

[EBF]

I think the presence of Shorts may limit his upside. While having a solid WR across Blackmon will help, unless the Jags turn into an air-it-out offense, there may not be enough targets for Blackmon to elevate his game to the next level.

I actually think they'll work well together. Kind of like a Nicks/Cruz combo in some ways.

You figure if this is your top 20 Dyno WRs does Blackmon deserve to be in it?

[*]Green, AJ

[*]Johnson, Calvin

[*]Jones, Julio

[*]Bryant, Dez

[*]Marshall, Brandon

[*]Cruz, Victor

[*]Harvin, Percy

[*]Thomas, Demaryius

[*]Nelson, Jordy

[*]Randall Cobb

[*]Nicks, Hakeem

[*]Fitzgerald, Larry

[*]Wallace, Mike

[*]Johnson, Andre

[*]White, Roddy

[*]Jackson, Vincent

[*]Decker, Eric

[*]Justin Blackmon

[*]Brown, Antinio

[*]Smith, Torrey

He's in the mix. I'd probably take him over Decker and Brown at this point. On a young team I'd also have to strongly consider him over some of the aging stars like Fitz, AJ, Roddy, and Jackson.

 

[JPeso]

I think the presence of Shorts may limit his upside. While having a solid WR across Blackmon will help, unless the Jags turn into an air-it-out offense, there may not be enough targets for Blackmon to elevate his game to the next level.

I actually think they'll work well together. Kind of like a Nicks/Cruz combo in some ways.

You figure if this is your top 20 Dyno WRs does Blackmon deserve to be in it?

[*]Green, AJ

[*]Johnson, Calvin

[*]Jones, Julio

[*]Bryant, Dez

[*]Marshall, Brandon

[*]Cruz, Victor

[*]Harvin, Percy

[*]Thomas, Demaryius

[*]Nelson, Jordy

[*]Randall Cobb

[*]Nicks, Hakeem

[*]Fitzgerald, Larry

[*]Wallace, Mike

[*]Johnson, Andre

[*]White, Roddy

[*]Jackson, Vincent

[*]Decker, Eric

[*]Justin Blackmon

[*]Brown, Antinio

[*]Smith, Torrey

He's in the mix. I'd probably take him over Decker and Brown at this point. On a young team I'd also have to strongly consider him over some of the aging stars like Fitz, AJ, Roddy, and Jackson.

Concur. I only see 13 of the 20 guys I'd want.

 

[lynx4ben]

Any Jax homers have some thoughts on his game speed? Shorts has looked electric which makes Blackmon look a bit slower in comparison. His long plays from last week were very hard to judge. He was stumbling on both of his big catches.

 

[cstu]

Top 5 pick next year in PPR. Top 6 pick in non-PPR leagues.

He wouldn't make my top 5 dyno WRs much less overall.

Your groupthink is wrong.

I like Blackmon's potential as much as anyone, but he's still couple of years away from putting up those kind of numbers. He's just outside my top 10 since there are some older guys I'd rather have in the short-term if I have a contending team.

 

[cstu]

Any Jax homers have some thoughts on his game speed? Shorts has looked electric which makes Blackmon look a bit slower in comparison. His long plays from last week were very hard to judge. He was stumbling on both of his big catches.

Shorts looks very good, but remember he has a year on Blackmon. If you compare their rookie years Blackmon is light years beyond where Shorts was last year.

 

[Football Jones]

I believe Blackmon is a clear FF stud in the making. Maybe an elite WR. Just has a ton of raw ability. All it'll take is a decent QB.

It'll happen sooner or later.

 

[Mr. Brownstone]

Any Jax homers have some thoughts on his game speed? Shorts has looked electric which makes Blackmon look a bit slower in comparison. His long plays from last week were very hard to judge. He was stumbling on both of his big catches.

He doesn't have the long speed that the elite WR's possess. He's not going to burn many DB's on go routes. But his route running looks to be improving and he looks more comfortable out there lately. Maybe it's just that Gabbert isn't behind center now, but he looks like he's learning to play to his own strengths- good hands and using his body to create YAC.

 

[donkshow]

He's too slow. I like him, and he'd be in the mix of that Top 20 posted. But he's not clear cut in or out of it.

 

[Chazzhawk]

If you are trying to acquire him right now the price is going to be too high, and there are too many questions around him. I don't think Henne is the answer and Gabbert has been god awful. How long will it take for him to get in sync with a rookie quarterback? How will Cecil Shorts, and a healthy MJD cut into his targets? If I had him right now I would trade him if I can get an eager buyer otherwise I am holding and I am not buying.

 

[Nucker101]

I don't see him as an elite talent, but the buy low opportunity 2-3 weeks ago was too good to pass up. I personally would still be willing to sell him until the Jaguars get a legit QB(I'm not sold on Gabbert or Henne but at least Henne has thrown him the ball).

 

[Bronx Bomber]

I think now might actually be a good time to buy if you want to. From my conversations with some Blackmon owners they all seemed to accept that it was a lost season and that his talent warranted a hold over a sell low. Most of them made other trades or grabbed ww guys to solidify their lineups so they could just push him into the depths of their rosters and let him develop. Now that they might be able to get some decent offers instead of the garbage they must have been getting a few weeks ago they might be interested in selling middle(?) if they can get fair value for him.

 

[lynx4ben]

I think now might actually be a good time to buy if you want to. From my conversations with some Blackmon owners they all seemed to accept that it was a lost season and that his talent warranted a hold over a sell low. Most of them made other trades or grabbed ww guys to solidify their lineups so they could just push him into the depths of their rosters and let him develop. Now that they might be able to get some decent offers instead of the garbage they must have been getting a few weeks ago they might be interested in selling middle(?) if they can get fair value for him.

I agree with this sentiment. Just acquired him and a 2014 1st for Cobb. The frustrated owners may feel like there is an opportunity to sell at this point.