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jwvdcw's betting picks: week 5 (1 Viewer)

Oak + 7.5(3 units)

Miami +4(1 unit)

Buff-4(1 unit)

Tenn +7(4 units)

Chi +6.5(2 units)

Car-6(2 units)

TB+6(1 unit)

GB+3(2 units)

Philly-2(2 units)

SF +6(2 units)
JW,If you get the Tennesse game wrong too.......you are going to lose money unless you hit at 80-90% of the rest of the picks.
And if I would've gotten the Oakland game right and the Tenn game, then I'd win money unless I lost 80+% of my other picks. I still don't see your point.
 
I'll try to find you an article about it when I get home (the site I need to go to is blocked here at work).

 
Ok, so as for the sig bet, its a one week deal for the loser...if you win, then post your sig here for me to wear, and I'll do it if I win. I think theres two of you involved for St Louis and just me for San Fran. GL!

 
Well, then please don't critisize my picks unless you're willing to. TIA.
Again, sorry, but there is no rule saying that I cannot make a comment about a game unless I engage in a sig bet with a fellow poster. 2004 was 2004. This is 2005. To assume that the Rams will suck on the road again this year because they did last year is foolish. There is this called parity in the NFL right now and you never know from season to season how good or bad a team is going to be.

And what does TIA mean? English, please?
:unsure:
 
Ok ctsu, Bankerguy, and TheFanatic...its time to pay up. Please update your sigs to this:

“Don‘t heat a cold stove with an icy pot.”The above quote is from Paj Derida only minutes before he completed his famous 2nd septident of the 243 man onslaught which can be seen here:46 2 53 54 55 56 58 793 1 7 71 111 238I’ve learned a lot about onslaughts from the FBGs onslaught tourney: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=158991But the real reason I bring up this quote is in reference to a dispute I had with jwvdcw. Why oh why was I so stupid as to question jwvdcw’s football knowledge? He gave me tons of stats to back up SF in their opening week game against St Louis and he even told me that it was a classic trap game. However, I am a guppie, and I followed the masses and lost by betting St Louis. Someday, I hope to become a shark like jwvdcw. Pots of ice = icy pots. That much, I know is true.
 
I'll be a man and take my medicine.

Wow...is all I can say. St Lou was terrible.
Not trying to rub it in- just asking an honest question:do you now agree that St Louis is terrible on the road? If the public still doesn't see that, there could be some nice money to be won in the coming weeks betting against them.

P.S. you still don't have the entire sig

 
I've never really understood the whole "Trap Game" saying.  The line is what it is.

last year I believe St Louis struggled on the road because they were too reliant on the pass game with a banged up O-line. 

The line is healthy and I believe you will see a somewhat more conservative play calling from Martz. (Martz and conservative don't belong together in the same sentence)

With a better ground attack freeing up playaction to Holt/Bruce ...I just do not see the 9ers having an answer.

I'd be willing to make a sig bet on the game.
Since the line is all over from 4.5 to 6, I'd compromise at 5.25. I'll take SF and the points in a sig bet with you. Deal?
Done.....I'll give you 6.0. Just come back and take your medicine when you lose.
I'm in as well for 6.0.
what side are you on?
STL -6
I see that you're online and I've PMed you...please update your sig. Thanks.
 
I'm 9-6 ATS this week with Philly -1 to go.NWE -7.5 :thumbup:Chicago +5.5 :thumbup:Cincy -3.5 :thumbup:Miami +4 :thumbup:Houston +5.5 Nawlins +7 :thumbup:NYJ +3.5 Seattle +3.5 Tampa +6 :thumbup:Tennesse +7 NYG -3 :thumbup:SDG -4.5 Detroit -3 :thumbup:San Fran +6 :thumbup:Baltimore +3 I changed my mind to NYJ at the last minute after initially going with KC. :thumbdown:I predict 10-6 this week. :)

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I'm 9-6 ATS this week with Philly -1 to go.

NWE -7.5 :thumbup:

Chicago +5.5 :thumbup:

Cincy -3.5 :thumbup:

Miami +4 :thumbup:

Houston +5.5

Nawlins +7 :thumbup:

NYJ +3.5

Seattle +3.5

Tampa +6 :thumbup:

Tennesse +7

NYG -3 :thumbup:

SDG -4.5

Detroit -3 :thumbup:

San Fran +6 :thumbup:

Baltimore +3

I changed my mind to NYJ at the last minute after initially going with KC. :thumbdown:

I predict 10-6 this week. :)

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Well done. I'm 5-4 with Philly also, but down a bit due to losing my bigger bets.
 
I'll be a man and take my medicine.

Wow...is all I can say.  St Lou was terrible.
Not trying to rub it in- just asking an honest question:do you now agree that St Louis is terrible on the road? If the public still doesn't see that, there could be some nice money to be won in the coming weeks betting against them.

P.S. you still don't have the entire sig
Whoops...sorry wasn't trying to dodge out. I have added the rest of your gibberish. :bag: They were terrible. I thought since they thumped SF twice last year and because Jackson looked so good in Pre-season that SF would have no answer for the offense.

2-2 in my 4 picks this week. Will definately play more next week.

ST Louis -4.5 :thumbdown:

Washington -5.5 :thumbdown:

Cincy -3.5 :thumbup:

Indy/Balt - Under 47.5 :thumbup:

 
Never bet on the Rams again as long as Mike Martz is their coach, which shouldn't be much longer. He is the worst head coach I have ever seen.

 
Oak + 7.5(3 units) :thumbdown: Miami +4(1 unit) :thumbup: Buff-4(1 unit) :thumbup: Tenn +7(4 units) :thumbdown: Chi +6.5(2 units) :thumbup: Car-6(2 units) :thumbdown: TB+6(1 unit) :thumbup: GB+3(2 units) :thumbdown: Philly-2(2 units) SF +6(2 units) :thumbup: Looks like you are down 2 units looking to break even tonight (minus the vig).If you had kept your units the same...you would be sitting at a 5-4 record up one unit going into tonights game.You've got to change this strategy.

 
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I've never really understood the whole "Trap Game" saying.  The line is what it is.

last year I believe St Louis struggled on the road because they were too reliant on the pass game with a banged up O-line. 

The line is healthy and I believe you will see a somewhat more conservative play calling from Martz. (Martz and conservative don't belong together in the same sentence)

With a better ground attack freeing up playaction to Holt/Bruce ...I just do not see the 9ers having an answer.

I'd be willing to make a sig bet on the game.
Since the line is all over from 4.5 to 6, I'd compromise at 5.25. I'll take SF and the points in a sig bet with you. Deal?
Done.....I'll give you 6.0. Just come back and take your medicine when you lose.
I'm in as well for 6.0.
what side are you on?
STL -6
So I've PMed you and bumped this thread multiple times. And I saw that you were online when I PMed you....you ever going to pay up?
 
Are these real bets?  Does real moneys change hands (even if it is electronic)?
As a rule of thumb, I don't bet on or against my home teams or teams I really dislike(Philly for example), so I don't make every bet that I list here, but I do bet the majority of them just as I list them.
 
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Steelers -6 (5 units) - HOU played horrible on the road and will step up at home, but Carr looks shell shocked. Line seems low here, I like it but will tread with caution.Jacksonville +9 (5 units) - No strong thoughts on this game, 9 is a lot of points but Ind is going to be tough to hang with at home.Buffalo +2.5 (2 units) - I have read that TB has O-line concerns this year, didn't see them in wk 1 or preseason but if it is true BUF will be a lot tougher test than MIN. Am a little worried about going with Losman, his first game on the road against a MUCH better D than HOU.NE -3 (10 units) - I like it. Brady just finds a way to get it done.Rams/Cardinal over 44.5 (1 unit) - The heat in ARI could slow them down, I'd pass here.Mia +6 (2 units) - No respect for a MIA team that sacked up at home last week. This team still has a lot of the same talent as the team that played well two years ago, I think they are a great play early in the year.KC -1.5 (15 units) - The only question is whether to start LJ or Holmes.Balt -4 (1 unit) - PIT just layed the game plan for BAL. Ram it down their throats. Big game for Lewis behind that line. If they commit to stop the run the Ravens have enough new receiving threats to burn them.NO +3 (10 units) - I like NYG here. The Aints played over their heads last week, not sure how long they can continue to do that. Wash +6 (2 units) - DAL will win, not sure by how much so I am staying away hereCincy -3 (1 unit) - Game looks like a pick'em. I don't think MIN will lay another egg, although if they do maybe Tice will finally get canned.

 
Steelers -6 (5 units) - HOU played horrible on the road and will step up at home, but Carr looks shell shocked. Line seems low here, I like it but will tread with caution.

Jacksonville +9 (5 units) - No strong thoughts on this game, 9 is a lot of points but Ind is going to be tough to hang with at home.

Buffalo +2.5 (2 units) - I have read that TB has O-line concerns this year, didn't see them in wk 1 or preseason but if it is true BUF will be a lot tougher test than MIN. Am a little worried about going with Losman, his first game on the road against a MUCH better D than HOU.

NE -3 (10 units) - I like it. Brady just finds a way to get it done.

Rams/Cardinal over 44.5 (1 unit) - The heat in ARI could slow them down, I'd pass here.

Mia +6 (2 units) - No respect for a MIA team that sacked up at home last week. This team still has a lot of the same talent as the team that played well two years ago, I think they are a great play early in the year.

KC -1.5 (15 units) - The only question is whether to start LJ or Holmes.

Balt -4 (1 unit) - PIT just layed the game plan for BAL. Ram it down their throats. Big game for Lewis behind that line. If they commit to stop the run the Ravens have enough new receiving threats to burn them.

NO +3 (10 units) - I like NYG here. The Aints played over their heads last week, not sure how long they can continue to do that.

Wash +6 (2 units) - DAL will win, not sure by how much so I am staying away here

Cincy -3 (1 unit) - Game looks like a pick'em. I don't think MIN will lay another egg, although if they do maybe Tice will finally get canned.
Thanks for your thoughts- always appriciated.The only big bet of mine that you seem to disagree with is NO-3. Funny that you say NO played over their heads because I think the Giants did just that. NO has won 5 games in a row. They were one of the best teams in the league at the end of last year. I love their new smashmouth offensive philosophy. I think they'll definitely be in the playoffs this year.

 
Officially went 2-2 last week. However I always pick all the spreads and O/U's. I am starting to notice that I am hitting way more O/U's then spread. I found this to be true last year too.Spread went 7-9.O/U's went 11-5-1Will post all my picks... and the games I like.Balt vs Ten +4 (36.5) Baltimore and the UNDERPittsburgh vs Houston +6.0 (38.5) Pittsburgh and the OVERJax vs Indy -9.0 (46) Indy and the UNDERNO vs NYG -3.0 (44) New Orleans and the OVERDetroit vs Chicago +2.0 (33) Detroit and the OVERMinny vs Cincy -3.0 (47.5) Cincy and the UNDERSF vs Philly -13 (41.5) Philly and the UNDERBuf vs TB -2.5 (35) Buffalo and the UNDERNE vs Carolina +3.0 (43) New England and the OVERAtlanta vs Seattle pk (41.5) Atlanta and the OVERSt Louis vs Arizona pk (44.5) St Louis and the OVERMiami vs NYJ -6.0 (37.5) Miami and the OVERCleve vs GB -6.5 (41) Green Bay and the OVERKC vs Oakland +1.5 (53.5) Kansas City and the OVERWashington vs Dallas -6.0 (36) Dallas and the OVERMy favs are:SpreadAtlanta pickMiami +6.0Kansas City -1.5Dallas -6.0O/U'sJac/Indy 46 UNDERNE/Car 43 OVERAtl/Sea 41.5 OVERStL/Ari 44.5 OVERWas/Dal 36 OVERGames I like this week

 
First post has been updated with my week 3 picks
some in-depth analysis is always appreciated....
I post my picks very early in the week, so that people can agree or disagree and then I'll defend my picks. Point out any specific game, and I'd be glad to tell you why I feel that way.
 
Week 1 Record: 5-5, -6 units

Week 2 Record: 5-6, +2 units

Total Record: 10-11, -4 units

No offense (I pick every game vs spread each week $500/year with 30 guys, I came in 2nd for year last year, currently this season 2nd, 1 behind leader this year).

WHY DO WE CARE ABOUT YOUR PICKS 10-11 ???????
 
Was 9-7 in week 2 ATS (Pit, Jax, Cin, Car, Sea, Stl, Cle, Kcc, Was) and 18-14 overall. Not bad for the first two weeks since those are usually the hardest to get right for me. Haven't done my picks for week 3 yet, but I'll post them in here.

 
Wow, Cincy opened at only -1.5 over Chi-town? I see that's changed recently.Minny opened -6.5 over N'awlins? I see that moved down real fast.6 point turnaround for the Green Bay game. -3 to +3.5

 
Bears/Bengals under 41.5(3 units) - I would pass here, as 40 looks about right.

NO +3.5(10 units) - The over/under looks like a better play....O/U 8.5 turnovers in the game. Whichever team scores off turnovers will win. If NO hangs close they can score late to cover, I'll take the points.

Philly/Oak over 46(3 units) - I like it

Mia +3(1 unit) - Looking for a letdown from the Cats? I think they layed their egg in week 1, looking ahead to the Pats and waking up too late in the second half against NO. I think CAR will find a way to win this one.

Mia/Car over 36.5(2 units) - You look more sold on the Miami offense than I am.

Clev +13.5 (8 units) - Gutsy. Indy offense has to figure it out sometime. I don't want to be betting against them when they do. CLE might have blown their shot in GB last week, and after two close game Indy might be ready to unleash the dogs.

NE +3 (1 unit) - I gotta skip this one. PIT has looked unstoppable...but it was HOU and TEN. NE made a few too many mistakes last week....maybe they got caught looking ahead to this matchup, although I wouldn't expect that from their coach. Should be a good one.

Pit/NE over 43(3 units) - Turnovers will play a large part in this....I'll pass here too.

SF +6.5(18 units) - Parcells is going to ride the Boys all week, I'm not sure they'll letdown here. Don't give SF too much credit for beating a weak road team in week 1.

NYG +5.5(5 units) - I love this play. Thought NY would get more respect after last night but looks like people can't see them going 3-0 and SD going 0-3.

KC +3 (13 units) - Moneyline could be good here too. Den doesn't have their running game together yet, and the Chiefs are going to mix in enough LJ to get it done.

 
MIAMI +3 :mellow: CHICAGO +3Cleveland +13.5New Orleans +3.5PHILADELPHIA -7.5Tampa Bay -3.5ST. LOUIS -6.5Arizona +6SAN FRANCISCO +6.5PITTSBURGH -3New York Giants +6Kansas City +3

 
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Week 1 Record: 5-5, -6 units

Week 2 Record: 5-6, +2 units

Total Record: 10-11, -4 units

No offense (I pick every game vs spread each week $500/year with 30 guys, I came in 2nd for year last year, currently this season 2nd, 1 behind leader this year).

WHY DO WE CARE ABOUT YOUR PICKS 10-11 ???????
its early...give me a few more weeksn and you'll see wyjj*.* = icy pots

 
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MIAMI +3 :mellow:

CHICAGO +3

Cleveland +13.5

New Orleans +3.5

PHILADELPHIA -7.5

Tampa Bay -3.5

ST. LOUIS -6.5

Arizona +6

SAN FRANCISCO +6.5

PITTSBURGH -3

New York Giants +6

Kansas City +3
BUFFALO -2.5Jacksonville +2

 
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MIAMI +3 :mellow:

CHICAGO +3

Cleveland +13.5

New Orleans +3.5

PHILADELPHIA -7.5

Tampa Bay -3.5

ST. LOUIS -6.5

Arizona +6

SAN FRANCISCO +6.5

PITTSBURGH -3

New York Giants +6

Kansas City +3
BUFFALO -2.5Jacksonville +2
I got killed this week. I hate week 3s.4-9 going into tonight's game.

 
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Wow Chief! after 3 weeks, you are 16-15 and +3 units, you haven't covered the vig yet! And you come into my thread and criticize? Mr. Obvious?! With your lock of the year 49ers +6.5 in week 1 you should be up more "units" than 3 on the year!

 
Wow Chief! after 3 weeks, you are 16-15 and +3 units, you haven't covered the vig yet! And you come into my thread and criticize? Mr. Obvious?! With your lock of the year 49ers +6.5 in week 1 you should be up more "units" than 3 on the year!
You have challenged me to a sig bet and then come here with this message....I take it that you're upset over something I said. Well, I honestly didn't mean any harm, and I'm sorry if I offended you in any way. I honestly don't see how you thought I "critisized" you by saying that I didn't understand why you pointed out the SF/St Louis game as an example of unpredictability. All I was saying was that I thought that game was very predictable. And come on man...when you go 0-6 you have to expect some friendly criticism. Again, sorry if I came across as harsh, but I really don't think I was.I'm still willing to do a sig bet with you. But lets not get all bent out of shape here. I never claimed to be an expert.

 
Week 1 Record: 5-5, -6 units

Week 2 Record: 5-6, +2 units

Total Record: 10-11, -4 units

No offense (I pick every game vs spread each week $500/year with 30 guys, I came in 2nd for year last year, currently this season 2nd, 1 behind leader this year).

WHY DO WE CARE ABOUT YOUR PICKS 10-11 ???????
its early...give me a few more weeksn and you'll see wyjj*.

* = icy pots
I'm just busting balls....I did real well again 9-5....I don't want to start posting my picks, I THINK THATY WOULD JINX MYSELF.
 
Week 1 Record: 5-5, -6 units

Week 2 Record: 5-6, +2 units

Total Record: 10-11, -4 units

No offense (I pick every game vs spread each week $500/year with 30 guys, I came in 2nd for year last year, currently this season 2nd, 1 behind leader this year).

WHY DO WE CARE ABOUT YOUR PICKS 10-11 ???????
its early...give me a few more weeksn and you'll see wyjj*.* = icy pots
I'm just busting balls....I did real well again 9-5....I don't want to start posting my picks, I THINK THATY WOULD JINX MYSELF.
If you don't want to jinx yourself by posting picks thats fine, but feel free to let me know which of my picks you disagree with. Talking about our disagreements only helps us. thats why I update these threads so early in the week. Usually by the end of the week, my actual bets are much different and I always wait until Saturday to place them.
 
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Week 1: 9-7 ATSWeek 2: 9-7 ATSWeek 3: 4-10 :bag:Time to turn it around now.sdg +5JAX -4CIN -9.5ind -7phi +1.5TAM -6.5NYG -3BUF +1sea +1.5nyj +7ATL -6dal +3sfo +2CAR -7.5

 
Wow Chief! after 3 weeks, you are 16-15 and +3 units, you haven't covered the vig yet! And you come into my thread and criticize? Mr. Obvious?! With your lock of the year 49ers +6.5 in week 1 you should be up more "units" than 3 on the year!
You have challenged me to a sig bet and then come here with this message....I take it that you're upset over something I said. Well, I honestly didn't mean any harm, and I'm sorry if I offended you in any way. I honestly don't see how you thought I "critisized" you by saying that I didn't understand why you pointed out the SF/St Louis game as an example of unpredictability. All I was saying was that I thought that game was very predictable. And come on man...when you go 0-6 you have to expect some friendly criticism. Again, sorry if I came across as harsh, but I really don't think I was.I'm still willing to do a sig bet with you. But lets not get all bent out of shape here. I never claimed to be an expert.
I will post my pick ATS like I said I would for ALL games. My sig bet is ATS for every NFL game this weekend. If you're interested, add your picks ATS for every game. Bet is for the balance of the year.Chargers-NE Chargers+6

Broncos-Jax Jax-4

Texans-Bengals Bengals-10

Colts-Titans Colts-7

Lions-Bucs Lions+7

Rams-Giants Giants-3

Bills-Saints Saints-1

Seahawks-Skins Seahawks+1.5

Jets-Ravens Ravens-7

Eagles-Chiefs Chiefs-1.5

Vikes-Falcons Falcons-6

Cowboys-Raiders Cowboys+3.5

49ers-Cards 49ers+3

Packers-Panthers Panthers-7.5

There are my picks ATS. My sig is on the line if you pick every game.

Have a nice day! :)

 
I have a yahoo thing going, but I'll throw mine in here just for gits and shiggles:Wk1 4-12Wk2 8-8Wk3 10-4Total 22-24Wk4TB -6.5Was -2.0Cin -9.0Jax -4.0Ten +7.0SD +5.5Buff evenNYG -3.0NYJ +7.0Atl -6.0Phi +2.0Oak -3.0SF +2.5Car -7.5

 
Wow Chief! after 3 weeks, you are 16-15 and +3 units, you haven't covered the vig yet! And you come into my thread and criticize? Mr. Obvious?! With your lock of the year 49ers +6.5 in week 1 you should be up more "units" than 3 on the year!
You have challenged me to a sig bet and then come here with this message....I take it that you're upset over something I said. Well, I honestly didn't mean any harm, and I'm sorry if I offended you in any way. I honestly don't see how you thought I "critisized" you by saying that I didn't understand why you pointed out the SF/St Louis game as an example of unpredictability. All I was saying was that I thought that game was very predictable. And come on man...when you go 0-6 you have to expect some friendly criticism. Again, sorry if I came across as harsh, but I really don't think I was.I'm still willing to do a sig bet with you. But lets not get all bent out of shape here. I never claimed to be an expert.
I will post my pick ATS like I said I would for ALL games. My sig bet is ATS for every NFL game this weekend. If you're interested, add your picks ATS for every game. Bet is for the balance of the year.Chargers-NE Chargers+6

Broncos-Jax Jax-4

Texans-Bengals Bengals-10

Colts-Titans Colts-7

Lions-Bucs Lions+7

Rams-Giants Giants-3

Bills-Saints Saints-1

Seahawks-Skins Seahawks+1.5

Jets-Ravens Ravens-7

Eagles-Chiefs Chiefs-1.5

Vikes-Falcons Falcons-6

Cowboys-Raiders Cowboys+3.5

49ers-Cards 49ers+3

Packers-Panthers Panthers-7.5

There are my picks ATS. My sig is on the line if you pick every game.

Have a nice day! :)
OK. I accept your challenge. I have three differences in the point spread from my first post and yours here. I have the NE/SD game at -5 only and I have the Tenn/Indy game at 7.5 and I have Jax/Den at 3. You can go back and look at my first post to see that I've had this line all along. Otherwise, my book's lines are the same as yours. TO BE FAIR, IF THIS ENDS UP NOT MATTERING FOR OUR SIG BET, THEN WE'LL JUST IGNORE IT. HOWEVER, IF IT DOES END UP MATTER(SAY INDY WINS BY EXACTLY 7) THEN WE'LL JUST CONSIDER THAT A NULL GAME AND THROW IT OUT. I THINK THIS IS THE FAIREST WAY TO HANDLE IT. IF YOU DISAGREE THEN PLEASE LET ME KNOW BEFORE KICKOFF TODAY.

Here are my picks:

NE -5

Jax -3

Hous +10

Tenn +7.5

Det +7

NYG -3

NO -1

Wash -1.5

Bal -7

KC -1.5

Atl -6

Dal +3.5

SF +3

Car-7.5

"bet is for the balance of the year"...does that mean that we have to wear the sig for the rest of the regular season?? Ok, I'm fine with that. Good luck to you- should be fun.

 

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