Keeper League Pick 1.05 (1 Viewer)

[rschroeder1]

Seeking some advice on my first round pick in a keeper league.

12 teams, 17 roster spots, .5 PPR, snake draft, four keepers maximum, 48 keepers have been kept across the league.

My keepers:  Devonta Freeman, CJ Anderson, Tyrell Williams, Hunter Henry

With keepers eliminated, the first round slots approximately as follows:

1. Le'Veon Bell
2. Antonio Brown
3. Julio Jones
4. LeSean McCoy
5. AJ Green
6. Melvin Gordon
7. DeMarco Murray
8. Leonard Fournette
9. Dez Bryant
10. TY Hilton
11. Todd Gurley
12. Lamar Miller
* Ezekiel Elliott could theoretically fall somewhere in here for the truly bold.  First round picks can't be kept (every other round can) so it is unlikely.  He'll probably go at the turn at 13.

The top 3 should go in some order in the first three picks.  Person #4 has kept Michael Thomas, John Brown, Doug Martin and Tyler Eifert, so I would imagine he would take an RB, likely McCoy.  The only caveat is that he is a die-hard Bengals fan, so picking AJ isn't out of the question.

My strategy is:

-Take McCoy if he's available.
-If McCoy goes at 4, I'm debating between AJ Green and DeMarco Murray.  Staying away from Gordon as I already have two Chargers.

Thoughts on Green:  I already have some depth at RB, much depending on CJ.  He's a guaranteed stud, no doubt about it, but I'm worried about the awful state of the Cincinnati offensive line.

Thoughts on Murray:  if I choose Murray, I won't have a stud #1 receiver but feel like there's good depth in the remaining rounds that I can get at least a strong WR2, and I can avoid the inevitable run on RBs that occurs in later rounds.  Very confident in the Titans run game, just a matter of the great unknown of how much of a split Henry will take.

What say you?  Thank you for your advice.

 

[Hurler1]

What are your line-up rules?  If you have a Flex spot, McCoy's your pick if available, moving Anderson into the Flex.  If it's straight up 2 RB/2-3WR, then you should consider Green with the pick.  My guess is McCoy goes at 4, then I still go Green.  You've got enough to work with at RB right now, so adding a bona fide #1 WR should be a priority with your pick.  Murray makes me nervous based on age and Derrick Henry sitting behind him.  

 

[rschroeder1]

The league is 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 RB/WR/TE.  Thank you for your input, @Hurler

 

[travdogg]

I want no part of McCoy that high. Buffalo feels like a potential dumpster fire. 

Why not take Melvin Gordon? I know you have 2 Chargers, but why does that matter? Those guys aren't likely every week starters anyway, where as Gordon is. I'd take Gordon at that spot, and if he goes before you, then i'd take Green.

 

[rschroeder1]

Thanks, @travdogg.  To be honest, I'm leery about having that many players from any one team on my roster.  Gordon would be available at that spot.  I guess I have some concerns about his durability and the SD offensive line, but perhaps I should reconsider there.  Appreciate it.

 

[Gally]

Thanks, @travdogg.  To be honest, I'm leery about having that many players from any one team on my roster.  Gordon would be available at that spot.  I guess I have some concerns about his durability and the SD offensive line, but perhaps I should reconsider there.  Appreciate it.

I understand the psychological aspect of too many players from one team however if the team can support production and Gordon is better than your other options you should go that route (I would rather have Murray, McCoy or AJ Green regardless).  My point is that you need to get the players you think are the best at the time you are picking.  The only time something like what other players you have from that team should come into play is in an exact tie in you evaluation.  Otherwise just take the best player.

 

[rschroeder1]

I understand the psychological aspect of too many players from one team however if the team can support production and Gordon is better than your other options you should go that route (I would rather have Murray, McCoy or AJ Green regardless).  My point is that you need to get the players you think are the best at the time you are picking.  The only time something like what other players you have from that team should come into play is in an exact tie in you evaluation.  Otherwise just take the best player.

Thanks, @Gally.  Makes complete sense.

Working on this last night, I'm leaning towards Green due to what the second round is looking like.  If I'm at 3 RB, I would really need to focus on WR in Round 2.  This is what the first 30 picks shape up as based on Yahoo draft order:

1. Le'Veon Bell
2. Antonio Brown
3. Julio Jones
4. LeSean McCoy
5. AJ Green
6. Melvin Gordon
7. DeMarco Murray
8. Leonard Fournette
9. Dez Bryant
10. TY Hilton
11. Todd Gurley
12. Lamar Miller

13. Ezekiel Elliott
14. Amari Cooper
15. Christian McCaffrey
16. Travis Kelce
17. Aaron Rodgers
18. Joe Mixon
19. Carlos Hyde
20. Demaryius Thomas
21. Rob Gronkowski
22. Marshawn Lynch
23. Greg Olsen (keeper selection)
24. Drew Brees

25. Alshon Jeffery
26. Dalvin Cook
27. Keenan Allen
28. Davante Adams
29. Mike Gillislee
30. Julian Edelman

In the second round, I'm fine with DT as my #1 receiver, but I feel like I'm taking a big chance that no one else scoops him up.  I'm not comfortable with Jeffery, and Davante Adams seems like there's an element of risk - he was somewhat TD dependent, and Martellus Bennett may cut into that significantly.

Edelman is another guy I'm comfortable with, but would I reach in the 2nd for him, or wait til the 3rd?  Just seems tough with Edelman as my #1 WR.

If I grab Green and miss out on DT in the 2nd round, I would probably aim for Carlos Hyde if he's around, but I would be in a spot where I can take a RB without throwing things out of whack.

Does that make sense or am I overthinking this?