Keeper question (1 Viewer)

[MAC1]

I have a keeper question as it’s first year we are doing it. 

Rule: lose draft pick this year equal to the players round last year

Draft position: I select 8th this year in 12 team league 

Format: 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1Flex (RB, WR, TE). Full point PPR. 

Players: Kamara (rd 1), D Adams (rd 3), Chris Carson (rd 12), DJ Moore (rd 12) 

Question: I think I should keep Kamara as he is a top 3 player given I picking 8th and will not get same caliber player   Carson and Adams great value but may still get them later.   Thoughts or advice?  

Thank you!

 

[beerbuff]

I probably wouldn't keep Kamara although it is tempting, but Fantasy is about points, not who has the best 1st round player.  Compare the dropoff in Kamara's points to what RB you could pick up with the 8th pick, then compare Carson vs whomever you think would be availabe in the 12th round and you'll see incredible value there. (I am comparing Apples to Apples by only looking at RB's-you might actually be better of with a WR or Kelce with your first round pick.)

Without knowing the keepers let's say you get Chubb with your pick, using FBG projections that is a loss of 84 points, which sounds like a lot until you look at the difference between Carson and say Jaylyn Samuels in the 12th which is a difference of about 130 points, so by keeping Carson you improve your team by 50 points or about 3 points a week.

Also, No way will you get Adams in the 2nd round-he is a first rounder and depending on other keepers he may not even be there with your 1st round pick.

 

[MAC1]

Thanks. I don’t disagree about Adams, likely gone in rd 2 but he dropped in my league last year so never know.  I understand your point about Carson though I can only start 2 Rbs.  I believe WR is deeper than RB so I’m trying to determine if I can have Kamara and RB better than Carson as my 2RB.  Thanks again for sharing your thoughts. 

 

[Gally]

With only one keeper I generally just keep the best player and that would be Kamara.  You can get Carson back if you really like him or so.eone else if you like them better.  

Using beerbuffs method is logical and has merit but using predicted scoring is just a guess with many things happening that could throw that off.  That's why in a single keeper situation I just go with the best player.  He is more likely to maintain his value.

 

[Sir Psycho]

Can you trade away Kamara or Adams ?

 

[IndianaVikingfan]

I like the point Gally makes about keeping the best player, but with an additional thought. Adams is going around pick 8-10 in most redraft leagues. If you go with him as your keeper, you effectively get a second round pick(once you factor in 11 more keepers already gone from your cheat sheet) to replace Kamara. You can look at that as a negative, or you can look at it as Adams and Kamara having similar value and your 8th overall pick as a bonus. I doubt that Kamara will increase his numbers this year unless it is with extra TDs, which is the hardest category to predict. People are quickly dismissing his running mate, Latavius Murray, as a banger who can't catch the football. Murray is a better pass catcher than given credit for and he is an excellent short-yardage back, better than Ingram, so Murray could vulture some, if not most of Kamara's goal line TDs.