Keeper Strategy Question (1 Viewer)

[Sweet Love]

I have been in a keeper league for the past 5 seasons (fun league with a mix of sharks and gups) and I am in a situation where I can only keep 3, yet have four really good players. I have been in this situation before, but usually the fourth player was a redraft 3rd or 4th rounder and I either sold him very cheap (i.e. 5th round pick which would equate to an 8th rounder in redraft) or just threw him back in the pool so there was more talent out there when I draft. Currently, I have four players, all of whom will be good for another 3 years (they are all realtively young and that is how long we can keep them).

RB1: I have one more season to keep him and one more to trade or lose him for good after week 10

RB2: I have three seasons to keep him

WR1: I have three seasons to keep him (he is 29, but should still be good)

WR2: I have three seasons to keep him

The top 3 players are all top 10 picks in a redraft. WR2 is probably a second rounder and is younger than WR1. Without getting into specifics in my team in particular here are my questions in general.

What would one of the top 3 yield? Due to the fact the keeper limits are tight, I can't take back a player in trade. A first rounder typically is a 4th rounder in redraft, remember, so I am guessing I would need two 1sts or at least a 1st and a 2nd in return. In fact, I wonder whether it would be worth it trading any one of those three before the draft. Do you guys run into this when you have few keepers?

I also wonder who would pay for this? If I was on the other side and I had two 2nd round-types and a 3rd rounder (or even a 4th round talent), I would be skeptical in trading away two of my top two picks just to get someone a better as now my next pick would be a redraft equivalent of a 6th rounder.

Any thoughts would be appreciated. Really, I used my team as an example, but am just as interested (if not more) in how people navigate their way in leagues with 3-5 keepers.

 

[Ray_T]

I have been in a keeper league for the past 5 seasons (fun league with a mix of sharks and gups) and I am in a situation where I can only keep 3, yet have four really good players. I have been in this situation before, but usually the fourth player was a redraft 3rd or 4th rounder and I either sold him very cheap (i.e. 5th round pick which would equate to an 8th rounder in redraft) or just threw him back in the pool so there was more talent out there when I draft. Currently, I have four players, all of whom will be good for another 3 years (they are all realtively young and that is how long we can keep them). RB1: I have one more season to keep him and one more to trade or lose him for good after week 10RB2: I have three seasons to keep himWR1: I have three seasons to keep him (he is 29, but should still be good)WR2: I have three seasons to keep himThe top 3 players are all top 10 picks in a redraft. WR2 is probably a second rounder and is younger than WR1. Without getting into specifics in my team in particular here are my questions in general.What would one of the top 3 yield? Due to the fact the keeper limits are tight, I can't take back a player in trade. A first rounder typically is a 4th rounder in redraft, remember, so I am guessing I would need two 1sts or at least a 1st and a 2nd in return. In fact, I wonder whether it would be worth it trading any one of those three before the draft. Do you guys run into this when you have few keepers?I also wonder who would pay for this? If I was on the other side and I had two 2nd round-types and a 3rd rounder (or even a 4th round talent), I would be skeptical in trading away two of my top two picks just to get someone a better as now my next pick would be a redraft equivalent of a 6th rounder.Any thoughts would be appreciated. Really, I used my team as an example, but am just as interested (if not more) in how people navigate their way in leagues with 3-5 keepers.

well, its not just what the player is worth by himself. it is what the player is worth over and above what the other player has currently as a keeper.example:if you are considering trading for Sidney Rice and you feel he is worth a first round pick. going into the draft, your WR that you were keeping is worth a 2nd round pick.you dont necessarily pay a first rounder to get Rice. because you are deciding not to keep a player who is worth a 2nd round pick, the difference in value is likely another 2nd round pick (or thereabouts if you go on the assumption that a first round pick is worth 2 2nd round picks)so that being said, even if you feel rice is worth a first round pick, that is not necessarily the price you should pay for him.so going back to your situation: if you feel a player is worth a 1st and a 2nd, you are unlikely to get on the open market because the player they choose not to keep may be worth a 2nd round pick, so the offer they should be making would be a first round pick.the exception: if you are trading with a person who only has 1 or 2 players worth keeping when you are allowed to keep 3. in this case, he may be willing to give full value for your player because he is not giving up anything significant by not protecting someone else. So in theory, you should get best value from the weakest team in your league......that doesnt mean it will happen because if that team doesnt value a player like you do, you may not get what you are looking for in return. As such, you may be better advised to shop around a bit to see if you can get a bidding war on your player.

 

[CalBear]

In between seasons, your good players are not as valuable as you think they are. The other owners can look at your roster and see that you've got four keeper-worthy players, which is a problem for you, not for them. And if you have three top-10 players and a second-rounder on your roster, you probably have one of the strongest rosters in the league, so people will be reluctant to give you a high pick for a player you'd not be able to keep anyway. Plus, as noted above, they are essentially giving up the third player they'd be able to keep if they didn't trade for yours.

From your perspective, any pick you get is a bonus, and they know that. It's like when an NFL team has an unworkable contract situation for a player; other teams won't trade for him because they know he'll be released and they can get him cheaper as a free agent.

I play in a keep-2 league, and often have three good players to protect. Trading is harder because we're an auction, so I can't even get draft picks; I've tried to work out some 2-for-1 trades with players who don't have a good second keeper. It's a pretty hard sell.

 

[Instinctive]

I just put out a list of guys I think people will be interested with a "best offer gets one" message.

I can't keep all 4, so hell, I'd take up to like a 4th for them. Later than that it may be better to let them back into the pool for an extra guy out there.

 

[Sweet Love]

Thanks for the feedback. I was afraid I would be "stuck". To answer some of the questions, my WR1 is Andre Johnson (the other is Brandon Marshall). I am really not opposed to trading anyone as reality is seeping in and I am better off with some compensation than none. I do like the "highest bidder" idea, though. I was going to do that with my 5-7 ranked players (guys like Schaub and Bowe, Harrison) and just give them away for peanuts, but as others have stated, there is the sacrifice of the player they already could keep. I have looked at some rosters and although bare, I am just not sure they would want to give away the picks...plus, do I really want to make a team that much stronger?? For example, there is a team whose four best players are Romo, Jacobs, Garcon and Ward...Basically they are all 3rd or 4th rounders in a redraft (if that). Even if he decided to wash away his team and take Schaub, Marshall and Bowe for like a 1st rounder (which again is a 4th in redraft), would it be worth it to me to make him that much better?? Part of me would be happy to let him rot and beat him twice during the season.

I guess this is the problem in these leagues where you only keep a few players...they are much more like redraft than dynasty.

 

[Ray_T]

Thanks for the feedback. I was afraid I would be "stuck". To answer some of the questions, my WR1 is Andre Johnson (the other is Brandon Marshall). I am really not opposed to trading anyone as reality is seeping in and I am better off with some compensation than none. I do like the "highest bidder" idea, though. I was going to do that with my 5-7 ranked players (guys like Schaub and Bowe, Harrison) and just give them away for peanuts, but as others have stated, there is the sacrifice of the player they already could keep. I have looked at some rosters and although bare, I am just not sure they would want to give away the picks...plus, do I really want to make a team that much stronger?? For example, there is a team whose four best players are Romo, Jacobs, Garcon and Ward...Basically they are all 3rd or 4th rounders in a redraft (if that). Even if he decided to wash away his team and take Schaub, Marshall and Bowe for like a 1st rounder (which again is a 4th in redraft), would it be worth it to me to make him that much better?? Part of me would be happy to let him rot and beat him twice during the season.I guess this is the problem in these leagues where you only keep a few players...they are much more like redraft than dynasty.

well, I usually would prefer to let a player go back into the draft than to trade him to a guy who is already a contender.If I am going to trade a potential keeper in your situation, I'd trade him to a team that is unlikely to contend next year.