Keeper vs Dynasty Strategy (1 Viewer)

[RavenLunatic]

I know most of us participate in several types of leagues where there are limited protected players each season (keeper) vs protecting an entire roster (dynasty).

In player evaluation and strategy many evaluate players differently. In a limited keeper league, you should almost always be in a championship window, so you should put yourself into a "redraft" mode when evaluating players to draft and keep.

1) Draft and keep players to maximize 2012 points and win now. Annually worry about next year, next year.

or

2) Always think in semi-dynasty mode. Take calculated risks over maximum points. Plan for rebuilding years even if you know 2012 points will suffer waiting for a ticket to pay off in later years.

Of course this will also vary by the number of keepers. The more keepers, the more it is like dynasty...

 

[Shutout]

Some may argue that even in a dynasty, you should always be focussed on the short term vs. lottery tickets and fliers because yo can only win in the year you are playing.

One of the biggest mistakes I see in big dynasty leagues is when owners get caught up in "Logan's Run" syndrome (its an old movie where you die when you are 30 because you are useless) and they trade and move around, always trying to have an entire roster full of 26 year olds.

But in reality, some of the best dynasty teams I have ever seen; ones that were serious contenders for 3-5 years at a time, were always teams that had some key older guys.

So, in general, in any format, even if the guy is 32+, if he is putting up the points (the thing I need to win each week), I am going for those guys, within reason.

 

[SelenaCat]

I play in a keep-5 auction league where the initial salaries escalate every year. We've had players kept for as long as 6 years, but for the most part, players are rarely kept more than 3-4 years since there's a big salary adjustment in year 3 based upon performance.

In this league, I barely consider the year 2 factor for the majority of the auction unless there are two similarly-projected players that I'm deciding between (if I was quantifying it, I'd say only 10-20% of their value to me is future value). I also never go after someone that I think will take more than a year to develop since our roster size is only twice our lineup requirements and I don't want to carry that much deadweight unless I'm absolutely certain that they will be a monster going forward (and I'm honest enough with myself that I'm not that good at projecting out that far).

 

[RavenLunatic]

I think having some type of contract component is good to keep rosters refreshed. Though that is almost impossible to get added in a long established league.

 

[Sweet Love]

Over the last 3 years in my Keep 3 league, my regular season record is a combined 35-13 (12-4 and 14-2 last two years). While I have had some decent drafts, the reality is that during that time as my 3 keepers, I have owned three preseason 1st rounders in every role (ADP/MJD/Foster, Andre Johnson, Ray Rice). Maybe easier said then done, but when you can keep a core group like that together (without getting tempted into much trading), you only have to hit on a couple of people in the draft. Usually, I only select older/established players I know I can get a base level of production from, and that has worked thus far (this past year I drafted Steve Smith Car (to laughs) as my WR2, and Cedric Benson as my RB4 and got what I needed from them.

For dynasty, I am not sure this strategy would work as well, as unless you had a good/up-and-coming bench, you would be devoid of talent when you are just picking rookies. I would be curious to hear from the dynasty guys whether going top heavy works for them.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Some may argue that even in a dynasty, you should always be focussed on the short term vs. lottery tickets and fliers because yo can only win in the year you are playing.One of the biggest mistakes I see in big dynasty leagues is when owners get caught up in "Logan's Run" syndrome (its an old movie where you die when you are 30 because you are useless) and they trade and move around, always trying to have an entire roster full of 26 year olds. But in reality, some of the best dynasty teams I have ever seen; ones that were serious contenders for 3-5 years at a time, were always teams that had some key older guys. So, in general, in any format, even if the guy is 32+, if he is putting up the points (the thing I need to win each week), I am going for those guys, within reason.

I think "Logan's Run" can be replaced with a pretty good recent movie, "In Time" (Age is 25, they get 1 year to live but have to work to earn more time... but things cost you in minutes.... so poor people rarely make it a few years over 25.... check it out)

 

[Sweet Love]

I think having some type of contract component is good to keep rosters refreshed. Though that is almost impossible to get added in a long established league.

I just posted about my Keep 3 league, and we do have contracts on the keepers (you can "keep" them for 3 seasons and then you have to move them. I have found the key is to move one of the "slots" often, and ride out the other two (for consistency reasons and to reduce risk of a bad trade). Even then, I only go 1 for 1 on trades as the temptation is there to add depth with a 1 for 2, but in the end I know I can only keep one of those two.

 

[Shutout]

Some may argue that even in a dynasty, you should always be focussed on the short term vs. lottery tickets and fliers because yo can only win in the year you are playing.One of the biggest mistakes I see in big dynasty leagues is when owners get caught up in "Logan's Run" syndrome (its an old movie where you die when you are 30 because you are useless) and they trade and move around, always trying to have an entire roster full of 26 year olds. But in reality, some of the best dynasty teams I have ever seen; ones that were serious contenders for 3-5 years at a time, were always teams that had some key older guys. So, in general, in any format, even if the guy is 32+, if he is putting up the points (the thing I need to win each week), I am going for those guys, within reason.

I think "Logan's Run" can be replaced with a pretty good recent movie, "In Time" (Age is 25, they get 1 year to live but have to work to earn more time... but things cost you in minutes.... so poor people rarely make it a few years over 25.... check it out)

Thanks. I knew there was a movie that looked like it had a similar theme to it recently but I hadn't seen it and could not think of what it was. You're right: 25 is the new 30. There is such a HUGE difference in perception between 23 year olds like Nicks and Harvin vs. a 27 or 28 year old that has actually done more, sometimes. You could probably make an argument that a guy like Miles Austin is the better value vs. those guys, but the price between each is a pretty wide margin. True, there is also an age difference of 3-4 years, but its not always wise to plan dynasty rostering by planning 5-8 years down the road. Most dynasty owners I know suggest keeping things in 3-4 year windows at the most.

 

[Shutout]

Over the last 3 years in my Keep 3 league, my regular season record is a combined 35-13 (12-4 and 14-2 last two years). While I have had some decent drafts, the reality is that during that time as my 3 keepers, I have owned three preseason 1st rounders in every role (ADP/MJD/Foster, Andre Johnson, Ray Rice). Maybe easier said then done, but when you can keep a core group like that together (without getting tempted into much trading), you only have to hit on a couple of people in the draft. Usually, I only select older/established players I know I can get a base level of production from, and that has worked thus far (this past year I drafted Steve Smith Car (to laughs) as my WR2, and Cedric Benson as my RB4 and got what I needed from them.

For dynasty, I am not sure this strategy would work as well, as unless you had a good/up-and-coming bench, you would be devoid of talent when you are just picking rookies. I would be curious to hear from the dynasty guys whether going top heavy works for them.

I think it works just as well if not better in a dynasty because in addition to the fact that you are drafting safe, known, players, you are also getting them later thatn you would in any other format. Three years ago in a dynasty startup, while people were grabbing guys like Jennings and VJAX and Santonio Holmes very high, I was filling in other areas and taking guys like Wayne and Welker and Q. The benefit wasn't the production because all those guys the other teams took WERE producing as good as the guys I took, but I benefited because my guys produced in the same neighborhood as their guys and I was able to get higher rated RBs, TEs, etc in those higher rounds. It probably doesn't work with just any position, but it does seem to work.