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Kolby Smith (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter biggamer3
- Start date
First, let's talk about Smith:
In a nutshell, he's a versatile RB with the size to be a RB/FB tweener, although like a typical Louisville big back, he doesn't run as physical as his size would suggest. He's a solid receiver, and he did take some snaps at FB when we watched him at the Senior Bowl. In a word, he's competent. We talked about him in the Senior Bowl Scouting Specials: Day One Day Two Day Three , and we had a chance to ask him a few questions with the tape rolling. Rob Rang compared him to Ladell Betts, and while he might not enjoy Betts success (Betts is a better natural talent), I think it's a fair comparison.
Now, let's talk about Smith's situation:
For this year, he's probably battling Derrick Ross for 3rd on the depth chart, and he's probably the favorite to win. That means he's got a good chance to be LJ's primary backup once Bennett gets a hangnail.
LJ can become a free agent at the end of the year. If LJ signs a long term deal, this discussion becomes moot. If he doesn't (or the Chiefs trade him as was rumored before the draft), then Smith could be set up as the best returning RB in 2008 a la Morency in GB. Is he a guy you would want as your starter? Probably not. Is he a guy that can be a good all around stopgap while you're looking for the long term answer? Probably. (ask Louisville and Michael Bush) Again, think Betts.
Michael Bennett is also there, but he can't stay healthy. He may stand in Smith's way at this moment, but I dont think he affects the long term outlook at RB.
His value is partially tied to the LJ contract situation. So as you hear that LJ and the Chiefs are getting farther apart, bump up Kolby's value. If you hear that LJ and Chiefs are getting closer to a deal, move Kolby down your rookie draft cheatsheets.
eta: I know Jeter23 will have some good insight on Smith.
In a nutshell, he's a versatile RB with the size to be a RB/FB tweener, although like a typical Louisville big back, he doesn't run as physical as his size would suggest. He's a solid receiver, and he did take some snaps at FB when we watched him at the Senior Bowl. In a word, he's competent. We talked about him in the Senior Bowl Scouting Specials: Day One Day Two Day Three , and we had a chance to ask him a few questions with the tape rolling. Rob Rang compared him to Ladell Betts, and while he might not enjoy Betts success (Betts is a better natural talent), I think it's a fair comparison.
Now, let's talk about Smith's situation:
For this year, he's probably battling Derrick Ross for 3rd on the depth chart, and he's probably the favorite to win. That means he's got a good chance to be LJ's primary backup once Bennett gets a hangnail.
LJ can become a free agent at the end of the year. If LJ signs a long term deal, this discussion becomes moot. If he doesn't (or the Chiefs trade him as was rumored before the draft), then Smith could be set up as the best returning RB in 2008 a la Morency in GB. Is he a guy you would want as your starter? Probably not. Is he a guy that can be a good all around stopgap while you're looking for the long term answer? Probably. (ask Louisville and Michael Bush) Again, think Betts.
Michael Bennett is also there, but he can't stay healthy. He may stand in Smith's way at this moment, but I dont think he affects the long term outlook at RB.
His value is partially tied to the LJ contract situation. So as you hear that LJ and the Chiefs are getting farther apart, bump up Kolby's value. If you hear that LJ and Chiefs are getting closer to a deal, move Kolby down your rookie draft cheatsheets.
eta: I know Jeter23 will have some good insight on Smith.
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biggamer3
Footballguy
massraider
Footballguy
Yeah, I drafted him, figuring he'll be LJ's backup, and hoping I can cash in a 2008 starting RB lottery ticket.
The Jacket
Footballguy
KC backups are always overrated. Unless you had LJ in 2004, you're pretty much dead with a guy like Bennett/Smith/Ross. I remember straightening people out about it last year: the Chiefs just don't give carries to the #1's backup.
Look at the carry distribution back in the Holmes days and all through LJ's career. Bennett was very effective running the football last year but the Chiefs still gave almost every carry to LJ.
Look at the carry distribution back in the Holmes days and all through LJ's career. Bennett was very effective running the football last year but the Chiefs still gave almost every carry to LJ.
massraider
Footballguy
You don't draft Kolby Smith because you think he'll steal carries. You draft Kolby Smith because LJ can be a FA next year.
Jiggyonthehut
Footballguy
His value in the 2008 FA period is undeniable. But he represents good value in the present simply for falling into the right situation. Out of all the backs with more than 380 carries in a single season, all had comparatively insignificant seasons either the next year or two years down the line- or both. Most fizzled out soon thereafter.
The trend makes perfect sense as well. Overuse in a season may lead to underlying injuries which are only aggravated and exacerbated by prolonged usage and often times, only realized after an offseason away from football. There's a pretty significant chance LJ sustains an injury this season both from a physical and historical standpoint and with no current workhorse on the roster, the Chiefs likely will have open competition. Bennett has a history of being dinged and IMHO doesn't work well with a power-running offense. If Kolby can win out when open competition starts, either post-injury or after free agency, he may be a steal in rookie drafts this year.
The trend makes perfect sense as well. Overuse in a season may lead to underlying injuries which are only aggravated and exacerbated by prolonged usage and often times, only realized after an offseason away from football. There's a pretty significant chance LJ sustains an injury this season both from a physical and historical standpoint and with no current workhorse on the roster, the Chiefs likely will have open competition. Bennett has a history of being dinged and IMHO doesn't work well with a power-running offense. If Kolby can win out when open competition starts, either post-injury or after free agency, he may be a steal in rookie drafts this year.
Dreamer
Footballguy
lions327
Footballguy
massraider
Footballguy
With the wokload he's carried the last two years, history says he is due for a downturn. The numbers are around somewhere, but 400 carries seems to be a red flag.
Jiggyonthehut
Footballguy
Bingo. If someone could assist me with the coding for it, I'd be happy to post them as wellWith the wokload he's carried the last two years, history says he is due for a downturn. The numbers are around somewhere, but 400 carries seems to be a red flag.
Otherwise, I'll just direct you all to pro-football-reference.com.
lord_helmet
Footballguy
I think looking too much at those numbers of carries is a big mistake at this point, LJ has only started 28 games in his career and to me the only important number is 48. As in number of TDs scoredBingo. If someone could assist me with the coding for it, I'd be happy to post them as wellWith the wokload he's carried the last two years, history says he is due for a downturn. The numbers are around somewhere, but 400 carries seems to be a red flag.
Otherwise, I'll just direct you all to pro-football-reference.com.
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
Yes but LJ is signed long term.
jafo
Out of Mind
Anyone think this guy will see any 3rd down plays? He obviously won't have any value in redraft leagues unless LJ gets hurt.
Craig
Footballguy
Move it A/C threadDynasty -Who do you pick up as Lj's back up, Holmes or Smith?
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I don't think Holmes is really interested in playing. He's more concerned about the money he will get if he doesn't retire. Look for an injury settlement coming soon to your TV tube. Holmes is nuts if he actually does want to play, and IMO it wouldn't be fair to his family. However, I think Holmes IS SMART, and is just trying to financially secure his future.As far as Smith goes, he has good size and speed, and has good moves in close spaces, but he never lived up to his potential. He shared time in college also.
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