Larry Johnson analysis (1 Viewer)

[Banger]

Disclaimer: Let me start by saying that I've been bearish on LJ all offseason due mostly to the well documented changes since last season. I thought he would put up good numbers but not the outrageous (IMO) projections some were posting. I thought the substantial changes were being minimized by too many FF'ers.

I didn't watch the game but read many posts that have followed. I was curious to see his stats in this game and compare them to last years stats to see if there was anything interesting besides the obvious fact that this was the first time since he was a starter that he didn't break 100 yards and only the 2nd time that he hasn't scored at least one TD. Here's what I found.....

Week Carries 0-2 % 3-5 % 6-9 10-19 20+

1 17 10 59% 1 6% 4 2

17 26 7 27% 12 46% 2 3 2

16 32 11 34% 16 50% 1 3 1

15 31 15 48% 5 16% 4 6 1

14 26 9 35% 8 31% 6 1 2

13 31 16 52% 7 23% 6 1 1

12 32 13 41% 9 28% 8 2

11 36 13 36% 12 33% 5 4 2

10 27 11 41% 10 37% 2 3 1

A few things jumped out at me. The first being that 17 is fewest carries he's seen by 9 carries (last season he had 26 twice). Another point of interest is he had the highest % of 0-2 yard carries (nearly 60%). Also, last year 1/3 of his carries went for 3-5 yards, last week 1 of 17 (6%) was in that range. He was still able to bust a few intermediate range runs (the longest was his 1st carry of the game for 16 yards) but no long range 20+ for only the 2nd time since he's been a starter.

What does this mean? Well maybe nothing, maybe something. It could be that Cincy has significantly improved their defense this year and it was "one of those games" and this should be dismissed. It could also mean that their line isn't opening up the holes it did in the past and that they were unable to pass protect and sustain drives like last year.

If their line is in fact much worse will it lead to more receptions? He had 5 this weekend which ties him for the most he's had (he had 5 twice last year). I doubt that he will maintain the gaudy 16 ypr though.

I just thought the numbers were interesting and wanted to share them with the board.......

ETA - anyone know how to post an excel spreadsheet without it getting all jumbled???

 

[MelvinTScupper]

Disclaimer: Let me start by saying that I've been bearish on LJ all offseason due mostly to the well documented changes since last season. I thought he would put up good numbers but not the outrageous (IMO) projections some were posting. I thought the substantial changes were being minimized by too many FF'ers.I didn't watch the game but read many posts that have followed. I was curious to see his stats in this game and compare them to last years stats to see if there was anything interesting besides the obvious fact that this was the first time since he was a starter that he didn't break 100 yards and only the 2nd time that he hasn't scored at least one TD. Here's what I found..... Week Carries 0-2 % 3-5 % 6-9 10-19 20+1 17 10 59% 1 6% 4 2 17 26 7 27% 12 46% 2 3 216 32 11 34% 16 50% 1 3 115 31 15 48% 5 16% 4 6 114 26 9 35% 8 31% 6 1 213 31 16 52% 7 23% 6 1 112 32 13 41% 9 28% 8 2 11 36 13 36% 12 33% 5 4 210 27 11 41% 10 37% 2 3 1A few things jumped out at me. The first being that 17 is fewest carries he's seen by 9 carries (last season he had 26 twice). Another point of interest is he had the highest % of 0-2 yard carries (nearly 60%). Also, last year 1/3 of his carries went for 3-5 yards, last week 1 of 17 (6%) was in that range. He was still able to bust a few intermediate range runs (the longest was his 1st carry of the game for 16 yards) but no long range 20+ for only the 2nd time since he's been a starter. What does this mean? Well maybe nothing, maybe something. It could be that Cincy has significantly improved their defense this year and it was "one of those games" and this should be dismissed. It could also mean that their line isn't opening up the holes it did in the past and that they were unable to pass protect and sustain drives like last year. If their line is in fact much worse will it lead to more receptions? He had 5 this weekend which ties him for the most he's had (he had 5 twice last year). I doubt that he will maintain the gaudy 16 ypr though. I just thought the numbers were interesting and wanted to share them with the board.......ETA - anyone know how to post an excel spreadsheet without it getting all jumbled???

I suppose we could overanalyze week 1, but why? There isn't one person who will drop LJ, and there aren't many who have a RB corp deep enough to NOT start him anyway. Plus, given his 150 yds from scrimmage, I'm more worried about the loss of Trent Green.He'll get his touches, and he'll get his touchdowns.

 

[super sleeper]

I don't think we'll know the answer to the LJ puzzle for a couple of weeks. With Green hurt, there is a potential to stack the line and force Huard to beat teams. That might deflate LJs rushing totals, but also force him to be more involved in the passing game.

 

[PMENFAN]

Disclaimer: Let me start by saying that I've been bearish on LJ all offseason due mostly to the well documented changes since last season. I thought he would put up good numbers but not the outrageous (IMO) projections some were posting. I thought the substantial changes were being minimized by too many FF'ers.I didn't watch the game but read many posts that have followed. I was curious to see his stats in this game and compare them to last years stats to see if there was anything interesting besides the obvious fact that this was the first time since he was a starter that he didn't break 100 yards and only the 2nd time that he hasn't scored at least one TD. Here's what I found..... Week Carries 0-2 % 3-5 % 6-9 10-19 20+1 17 10 59% 1 6% 4 2 17 26 7 27% 12 46% 2 3 216 32 11 34% 16 50% 1 3 115 31 15 48% 5 16% 4 6 114 26 9 35% 8 31% 6 1 213 31 16 52% 7 23% 6 1 112 32 13 41% 9 28% 8 2 11 36 13 36% 12 33% 5 4 210 27 11 41% 10 37% 2 3 1A few things jumped out at me. The first being that 17 is fewest carries he's seen by 9 carries (last season he had 26 twice). Another point of interest is he had the highest % of 0-2 yard carries (nearly 60%). Also, last year 1/3 of his carries went for 3-5 yards, last week 1 of 17 (6%) was in that range. He was still able to bust a few intermediate range runs (the longest was his 1st carry of the game for 16 yards) but no long range 20+ for only the 2nd time since he's been a starter. What does this mean? Well maybe nothing, maybe something. It could be that Cincy has significantly improved their defense this year and it was "one of those games" and this should be dismissed. It could also mean that their line isn't opening up the holes it did in the past and that they were unable to pass protect and sustain drives like last year. If their line is in fact much worse will it lead to more receptions? He had 5 this weekend which ties him for the most he's had (he had 5 twice last year). I doubt that he will maintain the gaudy 16 ypr though. I just thought the numbers were interesting and wanted to share them with the board.......ETA - anyone know how to post an excel spreadsheet without it getting all jumbled???

I think your analysis is spot on. It's one week. I think LJ is a great back. I think he's a top 5 talent that will put up top 10-15 numbers on the season. Think Corey Dillon in his prime in Cinci'. I don't like his coach, or his line situation. Cinci' could be vastly improved. It's one week. I wouldn't bench him. He's at worst a RB2. Just most people drafted him no lower than #3, and most at #1. He was a bad value pick, that all. Not a bad back. As for C&ampP for Excel, I don't think you can to BB's. You can C&P, but you cave to reformat it in the BB.

 

[Judge Smails]

I'm an LJ owner, and a realist. The loss of Green will hurt the offense overall, and will impact LJ's touchdown opportunities. Unless Huard performs, the expectation of 2 TD's a game are gone. If their defense were strong maybe it wouldn't be so bad. But they figure to play from behind. If last weeks game was on the road, no big deal. But to look like that at home was disconcerting to say the least. LJ is still a stud, and sometimes stud can have great games in spite of their teammates and especially the O-Line. See LT a few years back. But he will have to work for every yard he gets.

I don't care as much about receptions, since I'm not in a PPR league. Sure, he will get yards, but in my scoring system he will need 60 receiving yards to equal 1 touchdown. I need TD's...

 

[One]

I don't think we'll know the answer to the LJ puzzle for a couple of weeks. With Green hurt, there is a potential to stack the line and force Huard to beat teams. That might deflate LJs rushing totals, but also force him to be more involved in the passing game.

Good posts. There really isn't any senario I can think of where LJ is not involved or a threat in the gameplan. My problem with Alexander is when Seattle gets behind by a bunch you don't get to see a lot of him until it's back to within reach. Luckily they are in a great team so he is not faced with it too often besides the occasional Morris appearence on 3rd down or obvious passing situations.LT, LJ, Tiki and a handful of other RB's are without this problem. They're always in the game and have something to offer in any situation. (besides maybe Tiki at the GL) I'm in a PPR so this type of RB involvement makes an LT/LJ type of back GOLD since they actually rack up a heck of a lot more points through the air than if they were to get a few carries. Of course, it is always nice to have the lead and be punching in TD's.Johnson will have his big games and my hope is that by week 14 KC will be running downhill. ...when it matters.I still think LJ/LT are interchangable at #1. (in my leagues anyway)

 

[Sheriff66]

Disclaimer: Let me start by saying that I've been bearish on LJ all offseason due mostly to the well documented changes since last season. I thought he would put up good numbers but not the outrageous (IMO) projections some were posting. I thought the substantial changes were being minimized by too many FF'ers.

I didn't watch the game but read many posts that have followed. I was curious to see his stats in this game and compare them to last years stats to see if there was anything interesting besides the obvious fact that this was the first time since he was a starter that he didn't break 100 yards and only the 2nd time that he hasn't scored at least one TD. Here's what I found.....

Week Carries 0-2 % 3-5 % 6-9 10-19 20+

1 17 10 59% 1 6% 4 2

17 26 7 27% 12 46% 2 3 2

16 32 11 34% 16 50% 1 3 1

15 31 15 48% 5 16% 4 6 1

14 26 9 35% 8 31% 6 1 2

13 31 16 52% 7 23% 6 1 1

12 32 13 41% 9 28% 8 2

11 36 13 36% 12 33% 5 4 2

10 27 11 41% 10 37% 2 3 1

A few things jumped out at me. The first being that 17 is fewest carries he's seen by 9 carries (last season he had 26 twice). Another point of interest is he had the highest % of 0-2 yard carries (nearly 60%). Also, last year 1/3 of his carries went for 3-5 yards, last week 1 of 17 (6%) was in that range. He was still able to bust a few intermediate range runs (the longest was his 1st carry of the game for 16 yards) but no long range 20+ for only the 2nd time since he's been a starter.

What does this mean? Well maybe nothing, maybe something. It could be that Cincy has significantly improved their defense this year and it was "one of those games" and this should be dismissed. It could also mean that their line isn't opening up the holes it did in the past and that they were unable to pass protect and sustain drives like last year.

If their line is in fact much worse will it lead to more receptions? He had 5 this weekend which ties him for the most he's had (he had 5 twice last year). I doubt that he will maintain the gaudy 16 ypr though.

I just thought the numbers were interesting and wanted to share them with the board.......

ETA - anyone know how to post an excel spreadsheet without it getting all jumbled???

This guy helps

 

[One]

I think he's a top 5 talent that will put up top 10-15 numbers on the season. Think Corey Dillon in his prime in Cinci'.

:spits coffee all over keyboard:...please name me 9-14 RB's with better numbers by season's end.

 

[Family Matters]

From my perspective the 2 most factors from that game were:

1. The Cinn D is much improved. They brought in Sam Adams to help stop the run and Robinson is now 100% healthy. This is very significant for their D as stopping the run was the 1 thing they had trouble doing. They also added more safety help. Now they can feel confident at stopping the run. And it's no samll feat to stop the great KC run game.

2. Green got injured. While Green doesn't strike fear into opposing D's, any D coordinator will tell you he is very good at reading coverages and exploiting them. He can make plays in the passing game and D's have to respect that and can't afford to cheat to help the run. When got injured the D could do even more things to help against the run. Huard will not exactly make D coordinators lose sleep. And in fact I suspect they will be excited about the chance to add more pressure to their run game and try to add some additional resources to stop KC's run attack.

Here's some more eveidence of what I'm talking about:

LJ's YPC by att:

1-10=4.4

11-17=3.4

YPC by qtr:

Q1=4.6

Q2=3.0

Q3=2.2

Now he did break 1 off for 18 yards in the 4th but the game was already decided.

Another note: Green went out after his 3rd pass att in the 3rd qtr. LJ's 5 reception all came in the 2nd half.

 

[jurb26]

I think he's a top 5 talent that will put up top 10-15 numbers on the season. Think Corey Dillon in his prime in Cinci'.

:spits coffee all over keyboard:...please name me 9-14 RB's with better numbers by season's end.

Hummm, I don't know maybe the 10 who outscored him week?

 

[MelvinTScupper]

I think he's a top 5 talent that will put up top 10-15 numbers on the season. Think Corey Dillon in his prime in Cinci'.

:spits coffee all over keyboard:

...please name me 9-14 RB's with better numbers by season's end.

Hummm, I don't know maybe the 10 who outscored him (this) week?

please

 

[aardball44]

This will be worth revisiting each week. I'm looking forward to studying the updated LJ stats and status this season.

 

[cliffhuxtible]

I think it's safe to say that the opportunity to buy low on LJ will hit its peak early this season. If he fails to score this week, he goes into the bye week severely undervalued.

I don't know if he's going to score 20 TD's this year, but I'd bet on him really hitting a stride during the second half of the season.

He may not have the same O-line as before, but we're not talking about a system back. He can create his own opportunities.

 

[Brewdude]

I think he's a top 5 talent that will put up top 10-15 numbers on the season. Think Corey Dillon in his prime in Cinci'.

:spits coffee all over keyboard:...please name me 9-14 RB's with better numbers by season's end.

Hummm, I don't know maybe the 10 who outscored him week?

Using this logic, I should trade LT for Gore and I'm still owing the Gore owner something.Barring injury, there is NO WAY the following RBs have better numbers than LJ at year's end:CTaylorFTaylorHenryMBellThere are also some questionable players that scored better in week 1, but they at least have potential to put up good numbers all year. I still don't see these guys outscoring LJ:GoreBrownWestbrookJJonesLJ is a top 5 back, even with this past week's showing.jurb, you are out of your mind, man!

 

[One]

I think he's a top 5 talent that will put up top 10-15 numbers on the season. Think Corey Dillon in his prime in Cinci'.

:spits coffee all over keyboard:...please name me 9-14 RB's with better numbers by season's end.

Hummm, I don't know maybe the 10 who outscored him week?

 

[jurb26]

I think he's a top 5 talent that will put up top 10-15 numbers on the season. Think Corey Dillon in his prime in Cinci'.

:spits coffee all over keyboard:...please name me 9-14 RB's with better numbers by season's end.

Hummm, I don't know maybe the 10 who outscored him week?

Using this logic, I should trade LT for Gore and I'm still owing the Gore owner something.Barring injury, there is NO WAY the following RBs have better numbers than LJ at year's end:CTaylorFTaylorHenryMBellThere are also some questionable players that scored better in week 1, but they at least have potential to put up good numbers all year. I still don't see these guys outscoring LJ:GoreBrownWestbrookJJonesLJ is a top 5 back, even with this past week's showing.jurb, you are out of your mind, man!

LJ owners are still sensitive as all get out. I was just a lil. While we're at it though, no I do not think LJ is a top 5 RB this season. KC is looking like a team that will implode and I've said that all offseason. If Roaf comes back, I have to change my opinion. As of now with no Roaf, no Green and the less work he will see. I'm saying LJ is not top 5.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

I think he's a top 5 talent that will put up top 10-15 numbers on the season. Think Corey Dillon in his prime in Cinci'.

:spits coffee all over keyboard:...please name me 9-14 RB's with better numbers by season's end.

Hummm, I don't know maybe the 10 who outscored him week?

Using this logic, I should trade LT for Gore and I'm still owing the Gore owner something.Barring injury, there is NO WAY the following RBs have better numbers than LJ at year's end:CTaylorFTaylorHenryMBellThere are also some questionable players that scored better in week 1, but they at least have potential to put up good numbers all year. I still don't see these guys outscoring LJ:GoreBrownWestbrookJJonesLJ is a top 5 back, even with this past week's showing.jurb, you are out of your mind, man!

LJ owners are still sensitive as all get out. I was just a lil. While we're at it though, no I do not think LJ is a top 5 RB this season. KC is looking like a team that will implode and I've said that all offseason. If Roaf comes back, I have to change my opinion. As of now with no Roaf, no Green and the less work he will see. I'm saying LJ is not top 5.

Horrible. "Looking like a team that will implode" is great shtick.I will say this much, if you think you can get LJ for Gore, do it 100 times out of 100. Gore won't face Arizona every week, he is as highly regarded as he will be all year long.

 

[One]

I think he's a top 5 talent that will put up top 10-15 numbers on the season. Think Corey Dillon in his prime in Cinci'.

:spits coffee all over keyboard:...please name me 9-14 RB's with better numbers by season's end.

Hummm, I don't know maybe the 10 who outscored him week?

Using this logic, I should trade LT for Gore and I'm still owing the Gore owner something.Barring injury, there is NO WAY the following RBs have better numbers than LJ at year's end:CTaylorFTaylorHenryMBellThere are also some questionable players that scored better in week 1, but they at least have potential to put up good numbers all year. I still don't see these guys outscoring LJ:GoreBrownWestbrookJJonesLJ is a top 5 back, even with this past week's showing.jurb, you are out of your mind, man!

LJ owners are still sensitive as all get out. I was just a lil. While we're at it though, no I do not think LJ is a top 5 RB this season. KC is looking like a team that will implode and I've said that all offseason. If Roaf comes back, I have to change my opinion. As of now with no Roaf, no Green and the less work he will see. I'm saying LJ is not top 5.

LT, SA, Barber, (4).. , (5).. fill in the blanks then.

 

[Banger]

This will be worth revisiting each week. I'm looking forward to studying the updated LJ stats and status this season.

that's one of the reasons I did it. I've been playing FF a long time and what LJ did last year was unprecedented. His offseason changes were also pretty dramatic so there were definite reasons to be on both sides of the fence. Basically, I'm of the mindset that most RB's are a product of their system and there are only a few real game changers and wasn't sure LJ is/was one of them. What I'm curious to see (and it's not totally scientific) is how much production is due to talent and how much is due to situation. I've been a fan of Chester Taylor all offseason not due to his talent but the line improvements and philosophy changes. In a similar vain I'm also keeping an eye on the SA situation and how losing Hutch effects his perenial stud status (week 1 results no so good). It's only one week though....

 

[One]

I think he's a top 5 talent that will put up top 10-15 numbers on the season. Think Corey Dillon in his prime in Cinci'.

:spits coffee all over keyboard:...please name me 9-14 RB's with better numbers by season's end.

Hummm, I don't know maybe the 10 who outscored him week?

Using this logic, I should trade LT for Gore and I'm still owing the Gore owner something.Barring injury, there is NO WAY the following RBs have better numbers than LJ at year's end:CTaylorFTaylorHenryMBellThere are also some questionable players that scored better in week 1, but they at least have potential to put up good numbers all year. I still don't see these guys outscoring LJ:GoreBrownWestbrookJJonesLJ is a top 5 back, even with this past week's showing.jurb, you are out of your mind, man!

LJ owners are still sensitive as all get out. I was just a lil. While we're at it though, no I do not think LJ is a top 5 RB this season. KC is looking like a team that will implode and I've said that all offseason. If Roaf comes back, I have to change my opinion. As of now with no Roaf, no Green and the less work he will see. I'm saying LJ is not top 5.

Horrible. "Looking like a team that will implode" is great shtick.I will say this much, if you think you can get LJ for Gore, do it 100 times out of 100. Gore won't face Arizona every week, he is as highly regarded as he will be all year long.

Gore will only go as far as both of his surgically repaired knees will take him. Invest in his backups.

 

[jurb26]

Horrible. "Looking like a team that will implode" is great shtick.

No shtick at all. KC 2006 = Oak 2003Week 1 is not helping your case. We'll see about wek 2.

 

[billymays]

said it once will say it again

LJ rushing stats=how good his oline is

he is nowhere near as talented as LT

if LJ played for the raiders he would have about 700 yards at the end of the season

 

[jurb26]

I think he's a top 5 talent that will put up top 10-15 numbers on the season. Think Corey Dillon in his prime in Cinci'.

:spits coffee all over keyboard:...please name me 9-14 RB's with better numbers by season's end.

Hummm, I don't know maybe the 10 who outscored him week?

Portis, BrownUsing this logic, I should trade LT for Gore and I'm still owing the Gore owner something.Barring injury, there is NO WAY the following RBs have better numbers than LJ at year's end:CTaylorFTaylorHenryMBellThere are also some questionable players that scored better in week 1, but they at least have potential to put up good numbers all year. I still don't see these guys outscoring LJ:GoreBrownWestbrookJJonesLJ is a top 5 back, even with this past week's showing.jurb, you are out of your mind, man!

LJ owners are still sensitive as all get out. I was just a lil. While we're at it though, no I do not think LJ is a top 5 RB this season. KC is looking like a team that will implode and I've said that all offseason. If Roaf comes back, I have to change my opinion. As of now with no Roaf, no Green and the less work he will see. I'm saying LJ is not top 5.

LT, SA, Barber, (4).. , (5).. fill in the blanks then.

Portis, Brown and Rudi. Westy if it's PPR.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

Horrible. "Looking like a team that will implode" is great shtick.

No shtick at all. KC 2006 = Oak 2003Week 1 is not helping your case. We'll see about wek 2.

Oh, you predicted that Green would get hurt out of the pocket on a scramble on a helmet to helmet hit. Gotcha.####tier predictions than this have come true, so I hope you hit the lotto with your Ronnie Brown pick.

 

[jurb26]

Horrible. "Looking like a team that will implode" is great shtick.

No shtick at all. KC 2006 = Oak 2003Week 1 is not helping your case. We'll see about wek 2.

Oh, you predicted that Green would get hurt out of the pocket on a scramble on a helmet to helmet hit. Gotcha.####tier predictions than this have come true, so I hope you hit the lotto with your Ronnie Brown pick.

Yeah because this really looked like the same KC team before the injury. They crossed midfield just once in a half of play and into the 3rd quarter. Managed only 1 redzone visit and 3 points as well. The pass protection was suspect as well as the running lanes. Sure, the KC team that was loosing 17-3 in the 3rd has everything to blame on the Green injury. Even though the offense looked totally inept compared to last year before he ever went down.How about a little revisionist history. KC vs Cinci last year, week 17. Yeah, no difference at all.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

Horrible. "Looking like a team that will implode" is great shtick.

No shtick at all. KC 2006 = Oak 2003Week 1 is not helping your case. We'll see about wek 2.

Oh, you predicted that Green would get hurt out of the pocket on a scramble on a helmet to helmet hit. Gotcha.####tier predictions than this have come true, so I hope you hit the lotto with your Ronnie Brown pick.

Yeah because this really looked like the same KC team before the injury. They crossed midfield just once in a half of play and into the 3rd quarter. Managed only 1 redzone visit and 3 points as well. The pass protection was suspect as well as the running lanes. Sure, the KC team that was loosing 17-3 in the 3rd has everything to blame on the Green injury. Even though the offense looked totally inept compared to last year before he ever went down.

I guess we should expect about 1800 yards passing from Carson Palmer too. Shucks. Damn, Reuben Droughns is only going to rush for 320 yards. Pennington will throw for 4800 yards.

 

[Todem]

Being a dynasty LJ owner x3 I have very little concerns about his production. He is a stud and will be fed the ball all day. He is a great talent and people have been over analyzing this since day one. Now Green being out will sting somewhat, but his receptions are gonna go up even more while we wait for Green to return in a few weeks. Huard is a veteran and I watched him play some extensive action for the Dolphins. One thing is, his arm is average at best so he will rely on the saftey valve and Tony G. He does not make many mistakes so he can manage a game. I play in PPR leagues only, so 6 catches will make up for a lost TD. LJ should still finish with 2000 combined yards and at least 12 TD's and 50 receptions to boot. I will take that all day from my #1 RB.

 

[shadow2k]

Yeah because this really looked like the same KC team before the injury. They crossed midfield just once in a half of play and into the 3rd quarter. Managed only 1 redzone visit and 3 points as well. The pass protection was suspect as well as the running lanes. Sure, the KC team that was loosing 17-3 in the 3rd has everything to blame on the Green injury. Even though the offense looked totally inept compared to last year before he ever went down.

How about a little revisionist history. KC vs Cinci last year, week 17. Yeah, no difference at all.

You've heard of week 17 before, right? You know, where teams that have their playoff seed wrapped up play their second stringers? Like Cincy did last year. That game wasn't a good measurement of anything.The offense played like crap. But they are not that bad. They had a fumbled punt lost, a fumbled toss that put them in third and long, two offensive PI calls against Parker that both would have been 1st downs (one away from the actual play), a Green pass that Parker tipped up for an INT, and Jordan Black at RT is horrid, but Sampson was out week 1.

Any team that can't hold onto the ball and gets untimely penalties is going to have a rough go of it.

 

[joffer]

Horrible. "Looking like a team that will implode" is great shtick.

No shtick at all. KC 2006 = Oak 2003Week 1 is not helping your case. We'll see about wek 2.

Oh, you predicted that Green would get hurt out of the pocket on a scramble on a helmet to helmet hit. Gotcha.####tier predictions than this have come true, so I hope you hit the lotto with your Ronnie Brown pick.

Yeah because this really looked like the same KC team before the injury. They crossed midfield just once in a half of play and into the 3rd quarter. Managed only 1 redzone visit and 3 points as well. The pass protection was suspect as well as the running lanes. Sure, the KC team that was loosing 17-3 in the 3rd has everything to blame on the Green injury. Even though the offense looked totally inept compared to last year before he ever went down.How about a little revisionist history. KC vs Cinci last year, week 17. Yeah, no difference at all.

All of this can change in a weeks time. Most importatnly the playcalling IMO. Still too early to say. There really are no RBs that stand out right now as a favorite to be #1.

sound familiar?

 

[Banger]

Being a dynasty LJ owner x3 I have very little concerns about his production. He is a stud and will be fed the ball all day. He is a great talent and people have been over analyzing this since day one. Now Green being out will sting somewhat, but his receptions are gonna go up even more while we wait for Green to return in a few weeks. Huard is a veteran and I watched him play some extensive action for the Dolphins. One thing is, his arm is average at best so he will rely on the saftey valve and Tony G. He does not make many mistakes so he can manage a game. I play in PPR leagues only, so 6 catches will make up for a lost TD. LJ should still finish with 2000 combined yards and at least 12 TD's and 50 receptions to boot. I will take that all day from my #1 RB.

He will get fed the ball but so did McGahee last year. If a team can't keep drives alive and complete 3rd down passes the carries will be limited.

 

[jurb26]

Horrible. "Looking like a team that will implode" is great shtick.

No shtick at all. KC 2006 = Oak 2003Week 1 is not helping your case. We'll see about wek 2.

Oh, you predicted that Green would get hurt out of the pocket on a scramble on a helmet to helmet hit. Gotcha.####tier predictions than this have come true, so I hope you hit the lotto with your Ronnie Brown pick.

Yeah because this really looked like the same KC team before the injury. They crossed midfield just once in a half of play and into the 3rd quarter. Managed only 1 redzone visit and 3 points as well. The pass protection was suspect as well as the running lanes. Sure, the KC team that was loosing 17-3 in the 3rd has everything to blame on the Green injury. Even though the offense looked totally inept compared to last year before he ever went down.How about a little revisionist history. KC vs Cinci last year, week 17. Yeah, no difference at all.

All of this can change in a weeks time. Most importatnly the playcalling IMO. Still too early to say. There really are no RBs that stand out right now as a favorite to be #1.

sound familiar?

I see there as several RBs that stand out... and listed them. Not only that, but Roaf is simply irreplacable and several other key cogs are old. Green was one of these such cogs I listed in earlier KC threads as a RISK. He is down. Not that Injuries are predictable, but older bodies can't take as much of a toll and Green is really a differences maker in that O IMO. W/o him this team should struggle even more. On top of that, we hear people already pointing out the smaller work load of LJ in week one as opposed to last year. Well, again this was to be expected given he averaged 32+ touches a game last year. That is an unatainable average over a full season.

 

[One]

I think he's a top 5 talent that will put up top 10-15 numbers on the season. Think Corey Dillon in his prime in Cinci'.

:spits coffee all over keyboard:...please name me 9-14 RB's with better numbers by season's end.

Hummm, I don't know maybe the 10 who outscored him week?

Portis, BrownUsing this logic, I should trade LT for Gore and I'm still owing the Gore owner something.Barring injury, there is NO WAY the following RBs have better numbers than LJ at year's end:CTaylorFTaylorHenryMBellThere are also some questionable players that scored better in week 1, but they at least have potential to put up good numbers all year. I still don't see these guys outscoring LJ:GoreBrownWestbrookJJonesLJ is a top 5 back, even with this past week's showing.jurb, you are out of your mind, man!

LJ owners are still sensitive as all get out. I was just a lil. While we're at it though, no I do not think LJ is a top 5 RB this season. KC is looking like a team that will implode and I've said that all offseason. If Roaf comes back, I have to change my opinion. As of now with no Roaf, no Green and the less work he will see. I'm saying LJ is not top 5.

LT, SA, Barber, (4).. , (5).. fill in the blanks then.

Portis, Brown and Rudi. Westy if it's PPR.

jurb26, so in essence you're saying you'd trade LJ straight up for Clinton, Rudi, Westbrook or Ron Brown?

 

[joffer]

Horrible. "Looking like a team that will implode" is great shtick.

No shtick at all. KC 2006 = Oak 2003Week 1 is not helping your case. We'll see about wek 2.

Oh, you predicted that Green would get hurt out of the pocket on a scramble on a helmet to helmet hit. Gotcha.####tier predictions than this have come true, so I hope you hit the lotto with your Ronnie Brown pick.

Yeah because this really looked like the same KC team before the injury. They crossed midfield just once in a half of play and into the 3rd quarter. Managed only 1 redzone visit and 3 points as well. The pass protection was suspect as well as the running lanes. Sure, the KC team that was loosing 17-3 in the 3rd has everything to blame on the Green injury. Even though the offense looked totally inept compared to last year before he ever went down.How about a little revisionist history. KC vs Cinci last year, week 17. Yeah, no difference at all.

All of this can change in a weeks time. Most importatnly the playcalling IMO. Still too early to say. There really are no RBs that stand out right now as a favorite to be #1.

sound familiar?

I see there as several RBs that stand out... and listed them. Not only that, but Roaf is simply irreplacable and several other key cogs are old. Green was one of these such cogs I listed in earlier KC threads as a RISK. He is down. Not that Injuries are predictable, but older bodies can't take as much of a toll and Green is really a differences maker in that O IMO. W/o him this team should struggle even more. On top of that, we hear people already pointing out the smaller work load of LJ in week one as opposed to last year. Well, again this was to be expected given he averaged 32+ touches a game last year. That is an unatainable average over a full season.

so Randy Moss's fortunes can turn around, but LJ's can't, is that right?

 

[PMENFAN]

Horrible. "Looking like a team that will implode" is great shtick.

No shtick at all. KC 2006 = Oak 2003Week 1 is not helping your case. We'll see about wek 2.

Oh, you predicted that Green would get hurt out of the pocket on a scramble on a helmet to helmet hit. Gotcha.####tier predictions than this have come true, so I hope you hit the lotto with your Ronnie Brown pick.

Yeah because this really looked like the same KC team before the injury. They crossed midfield just once in a half of play and into the 3rd quarter. Managed only 1 redzone visit and 3 points as well. The pass protection was suspect as well as the running lanes. Sure, the KC team that was loosing 17-3 in the 3rd has everything to blame on the Green injury. Even though the offense looked totally inept compared to last year before he ever went down.

I guess we should expect about 1800 yards passing from Carson Palmer too. Shucks. Damn, Reuben Droughns is only going to rush for 320 yards. Pennington will throw for 4800 yards.

This isn't about Palmer. Shouldn't the advantage been to the running team? Wasn't it raining? Nobody is knocking LJ, they're knocking LJ's situation. Terrell Davis fell off a cliff in one season. Yes, it ended aorund week 6 with an ACL, but it really ended with Gary Zimmerman retiring and I believe Schlereth left the same year, wasn't it. Or was it Brown that left, and Stink the year after. Regardless, it was a remaking of the line, and it took them half the season to get it straight, and they struggled mightilly. People repeatedly underestimate the play of the line. He's lost both tackles. It will have an effect. He's also lost his HC and OC. Not only did he lose great HC and OC, but I think Herm is a lump of crap. I agree w/ jurb that the team will implode. Maybe LJ will get his in the passing game, but he'll have to become more involved in the passing game than he's been in the past. This is just my opinion, see how it plays out. I could be wrong. But, they played in week one how I thought they would. See if they improve in week 2.

 

[jurb26]

Horrible. "Looking like a team that will implode" is great shtick.

No shtick at all. KC 2006 = Oak 2003Week 1 is not helping your case. We'll see about wek 2.

Oh, you predicted that Green would get hurt out of the pocket on a scramble on a helmet to helmet hit. Gotcha.####tier predictions than this have come true, so I hope you hit the lotto with your Ronnie Brown pick.

Yeah because this really looked like the same KC team before the injury. They crossed midfield just once in a half of play and into the 3rd quarter. Managed only 1 redzone visit and 3 points as well. The pass protection was suspect as well as the running lanes. Sure, the KC team that was loosing 17-3 in the 3rd has everything to blame on the Green injury. Even though the offense looked totally inept compared to last year before he ever went down.How about a little revisionist history. KC vs Cinci last year, week 17. Yeah, no difference at all.

All of this can change in a weeks time. Most importatnly the playcalling IMO. Still too early to say. There really are no RBs that stand out right now as a favorite to be #1.

sound familiar?

I see there as several RBs that stand out... and listed them. Not only that, but Roaf is simply irreplacable and several other key cogs are old. Green was one of these such cogs I listed in earlier KC threads as a RISK. He is down. Not that Injuries are predictable, but older bodies can't take as much of a toll and Green is really a differences maker in that O IMO. W/o him this team should struggle even more. On top of that, we hear people already pointing out the smaller work load of LJ in week one as opposed to last year. Well, again this was to be expected given he averaged 32+ touches a game last year. That is an unatainable average over a full season.

so Randy Moss's fortunes can turn around, but LJ's can't, is that right?

 

[WhoDat]

Horrible. "Looking like a team that will implode" is great shtick.

No shtick at all. KC 2006 = Oak 2003Week 1 is not helping your case. We'll see about wek 2.

There have been a number of folks stating that the Chiefs were about to do their best Raiders 03 impression since mid to late spring. The thoughts and or debate usually started with the fact that the Chiefs were heading into camp with 6 players on offense over or at the age of 30...3 linemen, 1 TE, 1 WR and 1 QB and had just had a turnover in the coaching staff. I know there is a fair amount of fishing, schtick and such this time of year but I will say jurb26 and bicycle seat sniffer have been speaking about the Chiefs and their problems for 2006 LONG before Roaf retired and Green's injury.

 

[Otis]

Man there is some madness going on in here.

As someone pointed out, this is a silly debate in a sense because nobody has the RB depth to bench LJ. I'll go a step further -- there is no possible depth that justifies benching LJ.

This "down" game from LJ still ended with respectable numbers. The guy will be fine -- he'll get his yardage, and the TDs will come. Will he do per-game what he did last year? Absolutely not, and anyone who thinks he will is completely fooling themselves. But he is an absolute lock for top 8-10, and more likely in the top 5 at the end of the year, and there is no way you bench that guy in any league.

 

[jurb26]

Man there is some madness going on in here.As someone pointed out, this is a silly debate in a sense because nobody has the RB depth to bench LJ. I'll go a step further -- there is no possible depth that justifies benching LJ. This "down" game from LJ still ended with respectable numbers. The guy will be fine -- he'll get his yardage, and the TDs will come. Will he do per-game what he did last year? Absolutely not, and anyone who thinks he will is completely fooling themselves. But he is an absolute lock for top 8-10, and more likely in the top 5 at the end of the year, and there is no way you bench that guy in any league.

Who was saying he shold be benched?

 

[Otis]

Man there is some madness going on in here.As someone pointed out, this is a silly debate in a sense because nobody has the RB depth to bench LJ. I'll go a step further -- there is no possible depth that justifies benching LJ. This "down" game from LJ still ended with respectable numbers. The guy will be fine -- he'll get his yardage, and the TDs will come. Will he do per-game what he did last year? Absolutely not, and anyone who thinks he will is completely fooling themselves. But he is an absolute lock for top 8-10, and more likely in the top 5 at the end of the year, and there is no way you bench that guy in any league.

Who was saying he shold be benched?

It was suggested above that nobody would have the depth to bench him anyway. That isn't even a consideration.

 

[shadow2k]

I know there is a fair amount of fishing, schtick and such this time of year but I will say jurb26 and bicycle seat sniffer have been speaking about the Chiefs and their problems for 2006 LONG before Roaf retired and Green's injury.

Problem is...that's not what the problem was. Turley did ok at LT. It was Jordan Black at RT that was letting through most of the pressure, and he wasn't supposed to be the starter. He's a G that can play T when necessary...and since Sampson was out with a hamstring pull, the went with Black over the rookie, Svitek, to replace him for a game.Then you had a fumbled toss helping to kill their first drive. A fumbled punt that led to a short field, and Cincy's first score. An offensive PI on what would have been a completed pass for 1st down, followed by a False Start that led to a deep pass that Parker tipped up for an INT, which was when Cincy drove down on a very short field and scored the second TD before the half. And I don't remember whether that was the first Off PI Parker had, or the second...but one was away from the play. The play Green got hurt on wasn't even really the O-lines fault, it was a blitz that the RB's were out of place to pick up, because it was play action.I know every one wants to say "I told you so!". But Herm...Roaf...T.Rich...this wasn't the cause of the problem on Sunday. Penalties, Ball Handling, our starting RT being out for the game...those were.

 

[One]

I know there is a fair amount of fishing, schtick and such this time of year but I will say jurb26 and bicycle seat sniffer have been speaking about the Chiefs and their problems for 2006 LONG before Roaf retired and Green's injury.

Problem is...that's not what the problem was. Turley did ok at LT. It was Jordan Black at RT that was letting through most of the pressure, and he wasn't supposed to be the starter. He's a G that can play T when necessary...and since Sampson was out with a hamstring pull, the went with Black over the rookie, Svitek, to replace him for a game.Then you had a fumbled toss helping to kill their first drive. A fumbled punt that led to a short field, and Cincy's first score. An offensive PI on what would have been a completed pass for 1st down, followed by a False Start that led to a deep pass that Parker tipped up for an INT, which was when Cincy drove down on a very short field and scored the second TD before the half. And I don't remember whether that was the first Off PI Parker had, or the second...but one was away from the play. The play Green got hurt on wasn't even really the O-lines fault, it was a blitz that the RB's were out of place to pick up, because it was play action.I know every one wants to say "I told you so!". But Herm...Roaf...T.Rich...this wasn't the cause of the problem on Sunday. Penalties, Ball Handling, our starting RT being out for the game...those were.

it looked like the same ol' KC offense to me, just more sloppy than normal.

 

[The Jacket]

he is nowhere near as talented as LT

Gotta love the talent line. You can make ridiculous statements and have a ready-made excuse not to back them up.

 

[Brewdude]

jurb26, so in essence you're saying you'd trade LJ straight up for Clinton, Rudi, Westbrook or Ron Brown?

I'm interested in an answer to this question. Would you seriously trade LJ straight up for any of these?

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

I think KC is INDEED in trouble. While the first week is obviously always full of over-analysis and knee-jerk reactions, this case warrants it more than most...and definitely so, given he was the consensus #1.

There were questions before, and if anything they are more glaring now. That is not what you wanted. KC is great at home; I wouldn't downplay a beating there whatsoever. LJ was supposed put up big numbers this week and you know it. Now, Green goes down? And they've got Herm Edwards to right the ship?

I don't see how you're NOT worried about LJ. Top RB still? Sure, but owners paid for #1-ish numbers and it is not THAT much of a stretch to see him falling into that next tier. That is not where SA or LDT owners sit right now.

 

[Cookiemonster]

I think he's a top 5 talent that will put up top 10-15 numbers on the season. Think Corey Dillon in his prime in Cinci'.

:spits coffee all over keyboard:...please name me 9-14 RB's with better numbers by season's end.

Hummm, I don't know maybe the 10 who outscored him week?

Portis, BrownUsing this logic, I should trade LT for Gore and I'm still owing the Gore owner something.Barring injury, there is NO WAY the following RBs have better numbers than LJ at year's end:CTaylorFTaylorHenryMBellThere are also some questionable players that scored better in week 1, but they at least have potential to put up good numbers all year. I still don't see these guys outscoring LJ:GoreBrownWestbrookJJonesLJ is a top 5 back, even with this past week's showing.jurb, you are out of your mind, man!

LJ owners are still sensitive as all get out. I was just a lil. While we're at it though, no I do not think LJ is a top 5 RB this season. KC is looking like a team that will implode and I've said that all offseason. If Roaf comes back, I have to change my opinion. As of now with no Roaf, no Green and the less work he will see. I'm saying LJ is not top 5.

LT, SA, Barber, (4).. , (5).. fill in the blanks then.

Portis, Brown and Rudi. Westy if it's PPR.

jurb26, so in essence you're saying you'd trade LJ straight up for Clinton, Rudi, Westbrook or Ron Brown?

I would. Of course, I would have traded out of the top 3 picks.

 

[goonsquad]

jurb26,

so in essence you're saying you'd trade LJ straight up for Clinton, Rudi, Westbrook or Ron Brown?

I'm interested in an answer to this question. Would you seriously trade LJ straight up for any of these?

Of course not. You'd trade LJ for Rudi... etc. plus something more to maximize value. It could be a shark move if you believe LJ will underperform.

 

[joffer]

I think KC is INDEED in trouble. While the first week is obviously always full of over-analysis and knee-jerk reactions, this case warrants it more than most...and definitely so, given he was the consensus #1. There were questions before, and if anything they are more glaring now. That is not what you wanted. KC is great at home; I wouldn't downplay a beating there whatsoever. LJ was supposed put up big numbers this week and you know it. Now, Green goes down? And they've got Herm Edwards to right the ship?I don't see how you're NOT worried about LJ. Top RB still? Sure, but owners paid for #1-ish numbers and it is not THAT much of a stretch to see him falling into that next tier. That is not where SA or LDT owners sit right now.

there's no doubt losing Trent Green hurts, and LJ could very well slip into a 4-8 ranking, but I'd wait until he actually has a bad game to panic, especially considering Alexander's performance on Sunday.

 

[cr8f]

I don't think we'll know the answer to the LJ puzzle for a couple of weeks. With Green hurt, there is a potential to stack the line and force Huard to beat teams. That might deflate LJs rushing totals, but also force him to be more involved in the passing game.

That's right and since I get 2 pts per reception it won't hurt. This may help him and Gonzo.

 

[The Jacket]

and definitely so, given he was the consensus #1.

Come opening day, he was the consenus #3.

That is not where SA or LDT owners sit right now.

If Johnson's got question marks, you better believe Alexander has, too. Want to talk about an offseason loss that was minimized? Not Richardson, Welbourn, or even Al Saunders.

Steve Hutchinson.

Yeah, Alexander will probably bounce back against the creampuffs like he always does. But there's legitimate room for concern there, too. At this point I believe it's foolish to think Johnson's merely a top 10-15 back but that Alexander is still a very good candidate for #1.

The only thing we know for sure is that Alexander's schedule will be much kinder. But we knew that 6 months ago and, at that time, LJ was just about the consensus #1.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

I think KC is INDEED in trouble. While the first week is obviously always full of over-analysis and knee-jerk reactions, this case warrants it more than most...and definitely so, given he was the consensus #1.

There were questions before, and if anything they are more glaring now. That is not what you wanted. KC is great at home; I wouldn't downplay a beating there whatsoever. LJ was supposed put up big numbers this week and you know it. Now, Green goes down? And they've got Herm Edwards to right the ship?

I don't see how you're NOT worried about LJ. Top RB still? Sure, but owners paid for #1-ish numbers and it is not THAT much of a stretch to see him falling into that next tier. That is not where SA or LDT owners sit right now.

there's no doubt losing Trent Green hurts, and LJ could very well slip into a 4-8 ranking, but I'd wait until he actually has a bad game to panic, especially considering Alexander's performance on Sunday.

But his game WAS bad, for him. Or, at least for what people were hoping for. And certainly for people that had concerns to begin with, like banger. KC at home against Cinci is supposed to be better than that. And now Huard will take over. Incidentally, I don't see Green coming back so quickly, but we'll see about that.As for SA, I give him a free pass. That schedule is a joke. They have the same good coach, good QB, good WR's, nice D, etc. I don't see the concern for that system whatsoever off one game. His situation is nowhere near as unstable as LJ's is right now.