Larry Johnson analysis (1 Viewer)

[joffer]

I think KC is INDEED in trouble. While the first week is obviously always full of over-analysis and knee-jerk reactions, this case warrants it more than most...and definitely so, given he was the consensus #1.

There were questions before, and if anything they are more glaring now. That is not what you wanted. KC is great at home; I wouldn't downplay a beating there whatsoever. LJ was supposed put up big numbers this week and you know it. Now, Green goes down? And they've got Herm Edwards to right the ship?

I don't see how you're NOT worried about LJ. Top RB still? Sure, but owners paid for #1-ish numbers and it is not THAT much of a stretch to see him falling into that next tier. That is not where SA or LDT owners sit right now.

there's no doubt losing Trent Green hurts, and LJ could very well slip into a 4-8 ranking, but I'd wait until he actually has a bad game to panic, especially considering Alexander's performance on Sunday.

But his game WAS bad, for him. Or, at least for what people were hoping for. And certainly for people that had concerns to begin with, like banger. KC at home against Cinci is supposed to be better than that. And now Huard will take over. Incidentally, I don't see Green coming back so quickly, but we'll see about that.As for SA, I give him a free pass. That schedule is a joke. They have the same good coach, good QB, good WR's, nice D, etc. I don't see the concern for that system whatsoever off one game. His situation is nowhere near as unstable as LJ's is right now.

like i said, let's have Alexander outscore LJ one week, and then freak out.

 

[jurb26]

jurb26, so in essence you're saying you'd trade LJ straight up for Clinton, Rudi, Westbrook or Ron Brown?

I'm interested in an answer to this question. Would you seriously trade LJ straight up for any of these?

I would try to take advantage of one of the many LJ supporters by getting more than just one of those backs. Yes, I would trade him for those RBs straight up if i HAD to. Right now, I still would not have to.

 

[Routilla]

In a bad game for LJ I still got 10 points from him. DEN gave up 120+ rushing last week to SJax. Huard came in and threw for 120 yds(not sure at what point he entered game). I see this as a wait and see situation. If I get 10+ pts again this week @DEN then it's all good. The situation will improve. The bye week will help and for a change I'm glad it's early. Until then....

 

[jurb26]

I think KC is INDEED in trouble. While the first week is obviously always full of over-analysis and knee-jerk reactions, this case warrants it more than most...and definitely so, given he was the consensus #1.

There were questions before, and if anything they are more glaring now. That is not what you wanted. KC is great at home; I wouldn't downplay a beating there whatsoever. LJ was supposed put up big numbers this week and you know it. Now, Green goes down? And they've got Herm Edwards to right the ship?

I don't see how you're NOT worried about LJ. Top RB still? Sure, but owners paid for #1-ish numbers and it is not THAT much of a stretch to see him falling into that next tier. That is not where SA or LDT owners sit right now.

there's no doubt losing Trent Green hurts, and LJ could very well slip into a 4-8 ranking, but I'd wait until he actually has a bad game to panic, especially considering Alexander's performance on Sunday.

But his game WAS bad, for him. Or, at least for what people were hoping for. And certainly for people that had concerns to begin with, like banger. KC at home against Cinci is supposed to be better than that. And now Huard will take over. Incidentally, I don't see Green coming back so quickly, but we'll see about that.As for SA, I give him a free pass. That schedule is a joke. They have the same good coach, good QB, good WR's, nice D, etc. I don't see the concern for that system whatsoever off one game. His situation is nowhere near as unstable as LJ's is right now.

like i said, let's have Alexander outscore LJ one week, and then freak out.

You do realize that the consensous was that LJ would outperform SA handily in preseason projections, right? Actually, the consensous was that he would outperform everyone handily. I agree, LJ is in an unstable situation and that was the arguement back 4 months ago as well... when we were seeing 2500 total yds and 25+ TD projections everywhere. Nobody is saying that LJ is a bad RB or even a bad FF RB. ONly that he will not live up to expectations and his fall to the 2nd tier is far more likely than any of the LJ owners would like to think. I happen to expect that fall this year and apparently only a few agree with that. We'll see how it plays out.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

and definitely so, given he was the consensus #1.

Come opening day, he was the consenus #3.

That is not where SA or LDT owners sit right now.

If Johnson's got question marks, you better believe Alexander has, too. Want to talk about an offseason loss that was minimized? Not Richardson, Welbourn, or even Al Saunders.

Steve Hutchinson.

Yeah, Alexander will probably bounce back against the creampuffs like he always does. But there's legitimate room for concern there, too. At this point I believe it's foolish to think Johnson's merely a top 10-15 back but that Alexander is still a very good candidate for #1.

The only thing we know for sure is that Alexander's schedule will be much kinder. But we knew that 6 months ago and, at that time, LJ was just about the consensus #1.

Let's not get into arguing what position LJ went on a certain day. Give me a break. Ballpark, it's safe to say he was #1, but whatever.You can read my prior post to see why I think the question marks for SA are not near what they are for LJ, especially now.

And I never said LJ would be a 10-15 back. Don't put words in my mouth, or re-read who you think might have written that, but at least get your allegations right. I said I would not be surprised to see him drop to the next tier is all. That just means to me, he is more likely for that to happen than the other two, AT THIS POINT.

Your post sounded defensive with things like "Alexander...against the creampuffs like he always does" and other statements. Relax. I could care less about who owns what. Let's talk about the situation banger brought up. For the record, I consider LJ a better back than SA, if it makes you feel better, but that's not what this is about.

 

[joffer]

I think KC is INDEED in trouble. While the first week is obviously always full of over-analysis and knee-jerk reactions, this case warrants it more than most...and definitely so, given he was the consensus #1.

There were questions before, and if anything they are more glaring now. That is not what you wanted. KC is great at home; I wouldn't downplay a beating there whatsoever. LJ was supposed put up big numbers this week and you know it. Now, Green goes down? And they've got Herm Edwards to right the ship?

I don't see how you're NOT worried about LJ. Top RB still? Sure, but owners paid for #1-ish numbers and it is not THAT much of a stretch to see him falling into that next tier. That is not where SA or LDT owners sit right now.

there's no doubt losing Trent Green hurts, and LJ could very well slip into a 4-8 ranking, but I'd wait until he actually has a bad game to panic, especially considering Alexander's performance on Sunday.

But his game WAS bad, for him. Or, at least for what people were hoping for. And certainly for people that had concerns to begin with, like banger. KC at home against Cinci is supposed to be better than that. And now Huard will take over. Incidentally, I don't see Green coming back so quickly, but we'll see about that.As for SA, I give him a free pass. That schedule is a joke. They have the same good coach, good QB, good WR's, nice D, etc. I don't see the concern for that system whatsoever off one game. His situation is nowhere near as unstable as LJ's is right now.

like i said, let's have Alexander outscore LJ one week, and then freak out.

You do realize that the consensous was that LJ would outperform SA handily in preseason projections, right? Actually, the consensous was that he would outperform everyone handily. I agree, LJ is in an unstable situation and that was the arguement back 4 months ago as well... when we were seeing 2500 total yds and 25+ TD projections everywhere. Nobody is saying that LJ is a bad RB or even a bad FF RB. ONly that he will not live up to expectations and his fall to the 2nd tier is far more likely than any of the LJ owners would like to think. I happen to expect that fall this year and apparently only a few agree with that. We'll see how it plays out.

you keep referring to these outrageous projections. By the time the season had started and it was clear Roaf wasn't coming back, many had lowered their expectations, even though they still might have had him #1. Yes, i still projected that he'd outscore Alexander handily, and so far, he is.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

I think KC is INDEED in trouble. While the first week is obviously always full of over-analysis and knee-jerk reactions, this case warrants it more than most...and definitely so, given he was the consensus #1.

There were questions before, and if anything they are more glaring now. That is not what you wanted. KC is great at home; I wouldn't downplay a beating there whatsoever. LJ was supposed put up big numbers this week and you know it. Now, Green goes down? And they've got Herm Edwards to right the ship?

I don't see how you're NOT worried about LJ. Top RB still? Sure, but owners paid for #1-ish numbers and it is not THAT much of a stretch to see him falling into that next tier. That is not where SA or LDT owners sit right now.

there's no doubt losing Trent Green hurts, and LJ could very well slip into a 4-8 ranking, but I'd wait until he actually has a bad game to panic, especially considering Alexander's performance on Sunday.

But his game WAS bad, for him. Or, at least for what people were hoping for. And certainly for people that had concerns to begin with, like banger. KC at home against Cinci is supposed to be better than that. And now Huard will take over. Incidentally, I don't see Green coming back so quickly, but we'll see about that.As for SA, I give him a free pass. That schedule is a joke. They have the same good coach, good QB, good WR's, nice D, etc. I don't see the concern for that system whatsoever off one game. His situation is nowhere near as unstable as LJ's is right now.

like i said, let's have Alexander outscore LJ one week, and then freak out.

Let's have him lose Hasslebeck, and put up mediocre numbers at home to Cinci first. And don't turn this into a series of embellishments. Nobody's freaking out. It's a conversation over LJ's situation, from what I read.

 

[The Jacket]

Let's not get into arguing what position LJ went on a certain day. Give me a break. Ballpark, it's safe to say he was #1, but whatever.

There's no argument. When Willie Roaf retired, Johnson's ADP sunk to #3 and it never even hinted at creeping back up. He got a lot of hype during the offseason, but none of that mattered.

Your post sounded defensive with things like "Alexander...against the creampuffs like he always does" and other statements. Relax. I could care less about who owns what. Let's talk about the situation banger brought up. For the record, I consider LJ a better back than SA, if it makes you feel better, but that's not what this is about.

Defensive? Makes me feel better?

I couldn't care less about who you think the better back is. I'm just looking into some of your reasons for dismissing Alexander's week one dud, while illuminating everything that went wrong with Johnson's. And, correct me if I'm wrong, but a huge reason that Alexander is such a fantasy stud is because he runs against such pitiful opposition. And, like I said, he'll do that again this week.

No skin off my back whether Alexander has a #1 or #32 strength of schedule.

 

[jurb26]

I think KC is INDEED in trouble. While the first week is obviously always full of over-analysis and knee-jerk reactions, this case warrants it more than most...and definitely so, given he was the consensus #1.

There were questions before, and if anything they are more glaring now. That is not what you wanted. KC is great at home; I wouldn't downplay a beating there whatsoever. LJ was supposed put up big numbers this week and you know it. Now, Green goes down? And they've got Herm Edwards to right the ship?

I don't see how you're NOT worried about LJ. Top RB still? Sure, but owners paid for #1-ish numbers and it is not THAT much of a stretch to see him falling into that next tier. That is not where SA or LDT owners sit right now.

there's no doubt losing Trent Green hurts, and LJ could very well slip into a 4-8 ranking, but I'd wait until he actually has a bad game to panic, especially considering Alexander's performance on Sunday.

But his game WAS bad, for him. Or, at least for what people were hoping for. And certainly for people that had concerns to begin with, like banger. KC at home against Cinci is supposed to be better than that. And now Huard will take over. Incidentally, I don't see Green coming back so quickly, but we'll see about that.As for SA, I give him a free pass. That schedule is a joke. They have the same good coach, good QB, good WR's, nice D, etc. I don't see the concern for that system whatsoever off one game. His situation is nowhere near as unstable as LJ's is right now.

like i said, let's have Alexander outscore LJ one week, and then freak out.

You do realize that the consensous was that LJ would outperform SA handily in preseason projections, right? Actually, the consensous was that he would outperform everyone handily. I agree, LJ is in an unstable situation and that was the arguement back 4 months ago as well... when we were seeing 2500 total yds and 25+ TD projections everywhere. Nobody is saying that LJ is a bad RB or even a bad FF RB. ONly that he will not live up to expectations and his fall to the 2nd tier is far more likely than any of the LJ owners would like to think. I happen to expect that fall this year and apparently only a few agree with that. We'll see how it plays out.

you keep referring to these outrageous projections. By the time the season had started and it was clear Roaf wasn't coming back, many had lowered their expectations, even though they still might have had him #1. Yes, i still projected that he'd outscore Alexander handily, and so far, he is.

By the time the season had started it was more than likely too late for the majority of drafters. Even still as of Sept 4th, as recent as you can get, FBG had LJ slaghted to score over 20 more FP then the next best guy. Over 30 more than #3 and boy oh boy when you get past that the cliff really falls off. Either way, the concerns I had during the offseason have only been further confirmed thus far.

 

[jurb26]

There's no argument. When Willie Roaf retired, Johnson's ADP sunk to #3 and it never even hinted at creeping back up.

No it didn't...... ADPs from 8/22-9/6

 

[Chaos Commish]

You do realize that the consensous was that LJ would outperform SA handily in preseason projections, right?

ADP was 1.03 from about 8-20 through kickoff. The "consensus" liked LT and SA a little more. I think you're trying to make a point with dated material. It's true, June, July, small part of August (a week or so), LJ was 1.01 and he had some wildly optimistic supporters, but that changed, and the change (RB3) is what should be pertinent to an honest discussion.

 

[Chaos Commish]

There's no argument. When Willie Roaf retired, Johnson's ADP sunk to #3 and it never even hinted at creeping back up.

No it didn't...... ADPs from 8/22-9/6

I think Ants is in error there. Seriously, I kept pretty close track for stuff I write for another site and LJ was 1.03 in current drafts for the last three weeks.

 

[jurb26]

You do realize that the consensous was that LJ would outperform SA handily in preseason projections, right?

ADP was 1.03 from about 8-20 through kickoff. The "consensus" liked LT and SA a little more. I think you're trying to make a point with dated material. It's true, June, July, small part of August (a week or so), LJ was 1.01 and he had some wildly optimistic supporters, but that changed, and the change (RB3) is what should be pertinent to an honest discussion.

The link is provided for Antsports ADPs. Just plug the dates in you want. LJ is still number 1.

 

[jurb26]

There's no argument. When Willie Roaf retired, Johnson's ADP sunk to #3 and it never even hinted at creeping back up.

No it didn't...... ADPs from 8/22-9/6

I think Ants is in error there. Seriously, I kept pretty close track for stuff I write for another site and LJ was 1.03 in current drafts for the last three weeks.

By keep track of stuff what do you mean? Where you tracking your own drafts or what? From what I understand Ants is pretty reliable.

 

[Chaos Commish]

There's no argument. When Willie Roaf retired, Johnson's ADP sunk to #3 and it never even hinted at creeping back up.

No it didn't...... ADPs from 8/22-9/6

I see the problem. You selected "only serious mocks" and had a sample of 8 drafts. That's not much of a sample. Select "all mocks" and LJ is 3rd with a much larger sample.

 

[jurb26]

There's no argument. When Willie Roaf retired, Johnson's ADP sunk to #3 and it never even hinted at creeping back up.

No it didn't...... ADPs from 8/22-9/6

I see the problem. You selected "only serious mocks" and had a sample of 8 drafts. That's not much of a sample. Select "all mocks" and LJ is 3rd with a much larger sample.

OK, not to highjack this, but does anyone actually know what the difference is between "serious" and not serious on there? I always put in serious because I'm worried it's a bunch of tools just going on doing mocks to change ADPs the way they want.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

Let's not get into arguing what position LJ went on a certain day. Give me a break. Ballpark, it's safe to say he was #1, but whatever.

There's no argument. When Willie Roaf retired, Johnson's ADP sunk to #3 and it never even hinted at creeping back up. He got a lot of hype during the offseason, but none of that mattered.

Your post sounded defensive with things like "Alexander...against the creampuffs like he always does" and other statements. Relax. I could care less about who owns what. Let's talk about the situation banger brought up. For the record, I consider LJ a better back than SA, if it makes you feel better, but that's not what this is about.

Defensive? Makes me feel better?

I couldn't care less about who you think the better back is. I'm just looking into some of your reasons for dismissing Alexander's week one dud, while illuminating everything that went wrong with Johnson's. And, correct me if I'm wrong, but a huge reason that Alexander is such a fantasy stud is because he runs against such pitiful opposition. And, like I said, he'll do that again this week.

No skin off my back whether Alexander has a #1 or #32 strength of schedule.

They had similar questions marks sure, like we need to talk more about that... The thing is, you and Grandmama have a bigger one now. Damon Huard. And Herm Edwards does not help things. Holmgren, Hasslebeck, Jackson/Branch, whatever...same system, EASY schedule, better D. LESS question marks is all I've been saying. But wait...

could you tell us more about the creampuffs and pitiful competition SA faces? PLEASE!

Last post to you.

 

[shadow2k]

There's no argument. When Willie Roaf retired, Johnson's ADP sunk to #3 and it never even hinted at creeping back up.

No it didn't...... ADPs from 8/22-9/6

I see the problem. You selected "only serious mocks" and had a sample of 8 drafts. That's not much of a sample. Select "all mocks" and LJ is 3rd with a much larger sample.

OK, not to highjack this, but does anyone actually know what the difference is between "serious" and not serious on there? I always put in serious because I'm worried it's a bunch of tools just going on doing mocks to change ADPs the way they want.

Had to do with how long you take to make your picks, and if you were running out the clock and letting the comp auto-pick for you. Basically, you had to average 30min or less per pick in at least one "regular" draft, with no more than 2 comp picks. Then you could do the "serious" mocks, and had to keep that same standard or you went back to the drafts where half the people would let the timer run out on them, which skewed the draft results to the auto-picks the comp made.

 

[The Jacket]

I think you're trying to make a point with dated material.

Ding-a-ling, ling.People are making it sound like Johnson's summer hype continued all the way to opening weekend. It didn't. Not even close. Come early September, the average prediction for Johnson was reasonable. 1300, 1400, maybe even 1500 yards, plus 10-15 touchdowns. You'd get the odd 1800 yard, 25 touchdown prediction which was, in turn, tempered with an 800 yard, 8 touchdown prediction.He could still disappoint and finish with barely over 1000 yards and merely 10 or 11 scores, but should he finish with 1500 yards and 15 touchdowns, no one can claim with a straight face that such a performance is a major disappointment by consensus. Because it wouldn't be. That'd be about what the consensus expects (or, at least, expected), imo.

 

[jurb26]

I think you're trying to make a point with dated material.

Ding-a-ling, ling.People are making it sound like Johnson's summer hype continued all the way to opening weekend. It didn't. Not even close. Come early September, the average prediction for Johnson was reasonable. 1300, 1400, maybe even 1500 yards, plus 10-15 touchdowns. You'd get the odd 1800 yard, 25 touchdown prediction which was, in turn, tempered with an 800 yard, 8 touchdown prediction.He could still disappoint and finish with barely over 1000 yards and merely 10 or 11 scores, but should he finish with 1500 yards and 15 touchdowns, no one can claim with a straight face that such a performance is a major disappointment by consensus. Because it wouldn't be. That'd be about what the consensus expects (or, at least, expected), imo.

Early September... the season started on Sept 7th. How many drafts do you really think there where in that less than a week?

 

[tommyGunZ]

A reasonable question that reflects current sentiment is: If a draft were held today (with the knowledge and statistics from week 1), where would LJ go?

I think my draft board would look something like:

1. LT2

2. SAlexander

3. RBrown (2 TDs in 2nd toughest matchup of season, cakewalk schedule coming)

4. Rudi (Palmer looks officially back)

5. LJ (OLine issues, Green out, 2 matchups against SD, Denver, 1 vs. Balt, Pitt)

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

A reasonable question that reflects current sentiment is: If a draft were held today (with the knowledge and statistics from week 1), where would LJ go? I think my draft board would look something like:1. LT22. SAlexander3. RBrown (2 TDs in 2nd toughest matchup of season, cakewalk schedule coming)4. Rudi (Palmer looks officially back)5. LJ (OLine issues, Green out, 2 matchups against SD, Denver, 1 vs. Balt, Pitt)

 

[aardball44]

A reasonable question that reflects current sentiment is: If a draft were held today (with the knowledge and statistics from week 1), where would LJ go? I think my draft board would look something like:1. LT22. SAlexander3. RBrown (2 TDs in 2nd toughest matchup of season, cakewalk schedule coming)4. Rudi (Palmer looks officially back)5. LJ (OLine issues, Green out, 2 matchups against SD, Denver, 1 vs. Balt, Pitt)

That's fair. Tiki in the mix somewhere, too, especially in PPR leagues.

 

[jurb26]

A reasonable question that reflects current sentiment is: If a draft were held today (with the knowledge and statistics from week 1), where would LJ go? I think my draft board would look something like:1. LT22. SAlexander3. RBrown (2 TDs in 2nd toughest matchup of season, cakewalk schedule coming)4. Rudi (Palmer looks officially back)5. LJ (OLine issues, Green out, 2 matchups against SD, Denver, 1 vs. Balt, Pitt)

That's fair. Tiki in the mix somewhere, too, especially in PPR leagues.

I would say Tiki and Portis have to be in that mix. While you're on PPR, Westy has to be there as well.

 

[hi1111]

Why is everyone down on Herm so much? Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't he make Martin the rushing champ? Considering LJ is a better reciever and the Chiefs will always run in the endzone, if your in a PPR it's not the bad. Plus we gotta consider that Roaf wasn't primetime last season, all they did was move Gonzalez to the left side to block, and ANYTIME he's on the field I'm positive there's 2 defenders assigned to him. I think LJ feel to me at 1.04 so I'm personally extremely happy, but even if you took him first, which the only player I would consider other then him is LT, you should be happy as well. Why? Because after 12.40 points everyone is #####ing. First off it was the first game, second it was the first game! Alexander put up 50 yards? Why not ##### about him? I personally think LJ will be fine and once they get settled into the scheme of things, which I doubt has changed all that much since Solari (Sp.?) is still on board, LJ will 100% (barring injury) be a top 5 if not the top back.

Huard is 5-1 as a starter so I doubt he will be that bad.

 

[John]

Nowhere in all this LJ B.S has anyone ever considered that he went up against one of, if not the best def minded coach in the game with Lewis

THE END

 

[Banger]

Nowhere in all this LJ B.S has anyone ever considered that he went up against one of, if not the best def minded coach in the game with LewisTHE END

and last year they finished 28th.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

keep the overreaction coming.

Anytime someone uses on anything Tommygunz posts, I'm ready for week 2.

 

[tommyGunZ]

keep the overreaction coming.Anytime someone uses on anything Tommygunz posts, I'm ready for week 2.

Larry Johnson owner. Better luck in '07.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

keep the overreaction coming.Anytime someone uses on anything Tommygunz posts, I'm ready for week 2.

Larry Johnson owner. Better luck in '07.

Yeah, in 2 whole leagues. Big whoop. Now that you hate him, he'll win the Super Bowl MVP.I feel worse about having Ronnie Brown in leagues now.