Larry Johnson will be the bust of the 1st round.. (1 Viewer)

[pizzatyme]

Time to climb out on the limb! I think the Chiefs will be embarrassingly bad this season. As much as I like LJ, I feel like he is too tempermental and once the losing begins, he will get frustrated.

Cons for a bad season:

Ineffective and inconsistent QB play. I see both QBs starting this year. How can that lead to a successfull RB campaign?

LJ just got paid. How does he react once the Ls start adding up?

400+ carries last season. While I discount this due to his relative underusage prior to last season, it is still 400 carries!

O-line not cohesive. Herm will run him into their backs 330 times this season.

Pros for a good season:

Herman Edwards will run him to death.

He is one helluva back.

I'll say 330 x 3.8 YPC Yes, I think his YPC drops dramatically this year.

1188 rushing 14 TDs

300 receiving 1 TD

1488 total yards and 15 TDs

A good year, but not worthy of 1.03 IMO

Let the lynching begin!

 

[PahtyTom]

2 Questions:

1. How is 1500 total yards and 15 TDs a bust?

2. How is 1500 total yards and 15 TDs not worth the 3rd pick?

 

[dickey moe]

2 Questions:1. How is 1500 total yards and 15 TDs a bust?2. How is 1500 total yards and 15 TDs not worth the 3rd pick?

Pretty much sums it up.

 

[aldelgreco]

I'm so glad to see another thread about this.

The 7 (seven) threads I found using the search function (discussing the exact issue of whether or not LJ is overvalued at pick #3) have nothing on this thread.

thanks so much.

signed

:honda:

 

[Jon_Moore]

#1. I hate when people make threads that are "calling it now" even if they gie a half ### decent explanation as to why they believe it.

#2. How many running backs do you have projected for 15 or more tds this year?

Tomlinson

Jackson

Johnson

Parker perhaps

Maybe Alexander?

So, Johnson gets 1500 total yards, finishes around RB 5 6 or even 7. And is the bust of the first round?

I mean, If I draft him as 3 and he finishes 7, I'm not thrilled, but if you think the downside is seven, I'd be feeling pretty damn good about that pick

 

[pinda]

Time to climb out on the limb! I think the Chiefs will be embarrassingly bad this season. As much as I like LJ, I feel like he is too tempermental and once the losing begins, he will get frustrated.

Cons for a bad season:

Ineffective and inconsistent QB play. I see both QBs starting this year. How can that lead to a successfull RB campaign?

LJ just got paid. How does he react once the Ls start adding up?

400+ carries last season. While I discount this due to his relative underusage prior to last season, it is still 400 carries!

O-line not cohesive. Herm will run him into their backs 330 times this season.

Pros for a good season:



Herman Edwards will run him to death.

He is one helluva back.

I'll say 330 x 3.8 YPC Yes, I think his YPC drops dramatically this year.

1188 rushing 14 TDs

300 receiving 1 TD

1488 total yards and 15 TDs

A good year, but not worthy of 1.03 IMO

Let the lynching begin!

you also gotta love when a con is listed as a pro as well

 

[SteelerMurf]

Time to climb out on the limb! I think the Chiefs will be embarrassingly bad this season. As much as I like LJ, I feel like he is too tempermental and once the losing begins, he will get frustrated.

Cons for a bad season:

Ineffective and inconsistent QB play. I see both QBs starting this year. How can that lead to a successfull RB campaign?

LJ just got paid. How does he react once the Ls start adding up?

400+ carries last season. While I discount this due to his relative underusage prior to last season, it is still 400 carries!

O-line not cohesive. Herm will run him into their backs 330 times this season.

Pros for a good season:



Herman Edwards will run him to death.

He is one helluva back.

I'll say 330 x 3.8 YPC Yes, I think his YPC drops dramatically this year.

1188 rushing 14 TDs

300 receiving 1 TD

1488 total yards and 15 TDs

A good year, but not worthy of 1.03 IMO

Let the lynching begin!

you also gotta love when a con is listed as a pro as well

Just what I hate to see, my RB running the ball a lot.No first round bust are guys like Caddy and Jordan from last season. 1500 yards and 15 TDs is never a bust.

 

[PantherPower]

#2. How many running backs do you have projected for 15 or more tds this year?TomlinsonJacksonJohnsonParker perhapsMaybe Alexander?

Coach Janky Spanky AKA Clinton Portis

 

[Ned]

2 Questions:1. How is 1500 total yards and 15 TDs a bust?2. How is 1500 total yards and 15 TDs not worth the 3rd pick?

 

[24seven]

what!!

 

[LAUNCH]

2 Questions:2. How is 1500 total yards and 15 TDs not worth the 3rd pick?

Those stats are not worth the 3rd pick in the draft. 240pts is going to get you around the 7th/8th best RB in the draft. Over the past three years the #3 overall RB has averaged 311.55 which is about 12 TD's more than what he is projecting for LJ.LAUNCH

 

[TinHat]

so LJ's downside is 1500/15?

I'm in

 

[pizzatyme]

So, you guys will be happy being at the end of Rd. 2 with that kind of production from the 3rd pick in the draft?

Do you not have guys like Addai, Westbrook, Parker, Henry, Maroney, Rudi, Gore, Alexander at or near those totals? If you want LJ @1.03 when you can get all of those other guys later in the draft, then be ahead of the LJ drafter in the 2nd round, then go for it.

LJ with 1500/15 is a bust to me @ 1.03. And I think that is closer to his ceiling than his floor!

Enjoy the bashing!

For those of you that can't see how Herm Edwards could make both the Pros and Cons list, good luck to you. Maybe someone will take the time to explain injury risk by wearing a player down to oyu.

Just because you get to run into a brick wall 350 times, doesn't necessarily make it a good thing.

 

[pizzatyme]

2 Questions:2. How is 1500 total yards and 15 TDs not worth the 3rd pick?

Those stats are not worth the 3rd pick in the draft. 240pts is going to get you around the 7th/8th best RB in the draft. Over the past three years the #3 overall RB has averaged 311.55 which is about 12 TD's more than what he is projecting for LJ.LAUNCH

Someone who gets it!

 

[ceo3west]

So, you guys will be happy being at the end of Rd. 2 with that kind of production from the 3rd pick in the draft?Do you not have guys like Addai, Westbrook, Parker, Henry, Maroney, Rudi, Gore, Alexander at or near those totals? If you want LJ @1.03 when you can get all of those other guys later in the draft, then be ahead of the LJ drafter in the 2nd round, then go for it.LJ with 1500/15 is a bust to me @ 1.03. And I think that is closer to his ceiling than his floor!Enjoy the bashing!For those of you that can't see how Herm Edwards could make both the Pros and Cons list, good luck to you. Maybe someone will take the time to explain injury risk by wearing a player down to oyu.Just because you get to run into a brick wall 350 times, doesn't necessarily make it a good thing.

I'm not convinced LJ will have a monster year this year, but looking at his playoff schedule this yr he's a no brainer at 1.03. I beleive Addai plays @ Baltimore week 14. Good luck with that.

 

[el-gato-grande]

At this point the shark move is to ignore all this crap, not over think the pick, and take him at #3. You let him slide and some lucky ******* that kicked your ### last year will jump on him in the lower half of the first round.

Then again, poor drafting is probably the reason why you're picking at #3 in the first place. So, this would be in character for you.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

I wasn't that high on Larry Johnson but now it seems like everybody's picking him to bust. Most of the time everybody is wrong. Maybe I should raise LJ up a few spots.

 

[FavreCo]

2 Questions:1. How is 1500 total yards and 15 TDs a bust?2. How is 1500 total yards and 15 TDs not worth the 3rd pick?

Because he's not going to come anywhere near those #'s. Have you looked at the KC o-line lately? It's not what it once was. Add in zero threat of a passing game. KC may not even score 15 td on the year.

 

[ceo3west]

I wasn't that high on Larry Johnson but now it seems like everybody's picking him to bust. Most of the time everybody is wrong. Maybe I should raise LJ up a few spots.

 

[Blackjacks]

I don't like Larry either this year but your #'s baffle me. If the #1 overall ended up with 1500 and 15 td's I say he had a good year. I think KC is gonna be awful and I think LJ will see 8 and sometimes 9 in the box. I don't like him to have over 1300 all purpose yards and i don't think he'll get 8 td's and that's assuming he stays healthy.

Predicting an injury is impossible, I agree but LJ has two of the biggest factors laying on his side

1) holding out of mini camps

2) over 400 carries the previous year

You all can have him.

Even if he is healthy he plays in a very good conference for defenses and has no offensive weapons behind him.

LJ WON"T CRACK THE TOP 10 THIS YEAR

 

[joffer]

I don't like Larry either this year but your #'s baffle me. If the #1 overall ended up with 1500 and 15 td's I say he had a good year. I think KC is gonna be awful and I think LJ will see 8 and sometimes 9 in the box. I don't like him to have over 1300 all purpose yards and i don't think he'll get 8 td's and that's assuming he stays healthy.

Predicting an injury is impossible, I agree but LJ has two of the biggest factors laying on his side

1) holding out of mini camps

2) over 400 carries the previous year

You all can have him.

Even if he is healthy he plays in a very good conference for defenses and has no offensive weapons behind him.

LJ WON"T CRACK THE TOP 10 THIS YEAR

you said the same thing last year. did LJ stand your sister up for the prom or something?

I'm calling it now!!!!!

 

[Anthony Borbely]

I think people are forgetting the most important factor in this discussion: LJ is a BEAST.

He will get 1500 rushing yards and 15 TD's in his sleep. This doesn't count the receiving yards, and they have stated numerous times that they will throw the ball to him more.

I really have never gotten the LJ hate. The studs like him always get theirs.

 

[SteelerMurf]

2 Questions:1. How is 1500 total yards and 15 TDs a bust?2. How is 1500 total yards and 15 TDs not worth the 3rd pick?

Because he's not going to come anywhere near those #'s. Have you looked at the KC o-line lately? It's not what it once was. Add in zero threat of a passing game. KC may not even score 15 td on the year.

Why do you put so much stock into preseason. If you want to take that outlook, SA has looked like crap running up the backs of his olineman...Willie Parker didn't have an inch of running room vs. Washington...And we are talking preseason with Michael Freakin Bennett.Not a good gage.And people are acting like LJ is the first RB to ever have a below average QB. There is a couple changes on the oline, but do not discount that when old guys retire, it's cause they didn't have much left.....you don't know how good they actually played last year.....

 

[The Man with the Plan]

2 Questions:

1. How is 1500 total yards and 15 TDs a bust?

2. How is 1500 total yards and 15 TDs not worth the 3rd pick?

Because he's not going to come anywhere near those #'s. Have you looked at the KC o-line lately? It's not what it once was. Add in zero threat of a passing game. KC may not even score 15 td on the year.

Why do you put so much stock into preseason. If you want to take that outlook, SA has looked like crap running up the backs of his olineman...Willie Parker didn't have an inch of running room vs. Washington...And we are talking preseason with Michael Freakin Bennett.

Not a good gage.

And people are acting like LJ is the first RB to ever have a below average QB. There is a couple changes on the oline, but do not discount that when old guys retire, it's cause they didn't have much left.....you don't know how good they actually played last year.....

I was with you until here. Will Shields while not playing at an all-pro level was still a very good player. Regardless of how you think Larry Johnson will play this season losing a player like Shields certainly wasn't a good thing. I wouldn't just ignore something like that.

 

[Tong Po]

Time to climb out on the limb! I think the Chiefs will be embarrassingly bad this season. As much as I like LJ, I feel like he is too tempermental and once the losing begins, he will get frustrated.Cons for a bad season:Ineffective and inconsistent QB play. I see both QBs starting this year. How can that lead to a successfull RB campaign?LJ just got paid. How does he react once the Ls start adding up?400+ carries last season. While I discount this due to his relative underusage prior to last season, it is still 400 carries!O-line not cohesive. Herm will run him into their backs 330 times this season.Pros for a good season:Herman Edwards will run him to death.He is one helluva back.I'll say 330 x 3.8 YPC Yes, I think his YPC drops dramatically this year.1188 rushing 14 TDs300 receiving 1 TD1488 total yards and 15 TDsA good year, but not worthy of 1.03 IMOLet the lynching begin!

I always love when people say if the 1.03 pick finishes the season as the 6th or 7th RB.... he was some kind of "bust".Cadillac Williams going in the 3rd and even 2nd round last year... then finishing as the 39th ranked RB.... now that's a BUST.LJ getting drafted at 3 and finishing 7 is not a bust. If my first overall pick finished with 1500 yards and 15 TDs, I'd be pretty stoked.Regardless of where I chose him in the 1st.

 

[Sinrman]

A bust? Nah, he'll still put up solid numbers. But I fear the offense around him, not necessarilly LJ himself. The wear and tear, the new contract, etc. isn't a concern. The big ?? around the QB, the WRs, the fact that Gonzalez will likely have to sit back and block more, etc. THAT has me worried... defenses will stack the line on him. Perhaps this year we can see if he can beat that, like LT did for years before San Diego started to step it up...?

 

[Blackjacks]

I don't like Larry either this year but your #'s baffle me. If the #1 overall ended up with 1500 and 15 td's I say he had a good year. I think KC is gonna be awful and I think LJ will see 8 and sometimes 9 in the box. I don't like him to have over 1300 all purpose yards and i don't think he'll get 8 td's and that's assuming he stays healthy.

Predicting an injury is impossible, I agree but LJ has two of the biggest factors laying on his side

1) holding out of training camps

2) over 400 carries the previous year

You all can have him.

Even if he is healthy he plays in a very good conference for defenses and has no offensive weapons behind him.

LJ WON"T CRACK THE TOP 10 THIS YEAR

you said the same thing last year. did LJ stand your sister up for the prom or something?

I'm calling it now!!!!!

How could have I said the same thing last year when he didn't have 400 carries nor did he hold out of training camp?I wasn't huge on LJ last year but I can't recall saying he would be awful.

 

[Swamprat]

Time to climb out on the limb! I think the Chiefs will be embarrassingly bad this season. As much as I like LJ, I feel like he is too tempermental and once the losing begins, he will get frustrated.

Cons for a bad season:

Ineffective and inconsistent QB play. I see both QBs starting this year. How can that lead to a successfull RB campaign?

LJ just got paid. How does he react once the Ls start adding up?

400+ carries last season. While I discount this due to his relative underusage prior to last season, it is still 400 carries!

O-line not cohesive. Herm will run him into their backs 330 times this season.

Pros for a good season:

Herman Edwards will run him to death.

He is one helluva back.

I'll say 330 x 3.8 YPC Yes, I think his YPC drops dramatically this year.

1188 rushing 14 TDs

300 receiving 1 TD

1488 total yards and 15 TDs

A good year, but not worthy of 1.03 IMO

Let the lynching begin!

You've convinced me. If he's there at 1.04 he's mine.

 

[FF Dude]

Thanks. I actually feel a whole lot better about taking LJ at 1.03 after reading this thread. As many others have said if he finishes top 6 or 7 I won't consider that a bust in any way. I had Jordan and Cadillac last year, let me remind you how that went.

 

[nygiants56]

well, they've answered the QB question: who will start for KC at QB?

definitely Huard. He's solid.was very good last season, 11 td-1int...comp 64%

maybe defenses brought the kitchen sink at Croyle?

Huard is a good QB, he's not flashy and not a gunslinger, but he'll keep defenses honest..



in LJ we trust..they'll get things going.

the Jets weren't great in preseason under Herm, either.

 

[Ghost Rider]

I wasn't that high on Larry Johnson but now it seems like everybody's picking him to bust. Most of the time everybody is wrong. Maybe I should raise LJ up a few spots.

So, you are going to take LJ 1st overall (since he seems to be the consensus number 3 pick) over Tomlinson?

 

[The Man with the Plan]

I wasn't that high on Larry Johnson but now it seems like everybody's picking him to bust. Most of the time everybody is wrong. Maybe I should raise LJ up a few spots.

So, you are going to take LJ 1st overall (since he seems to be the consensus number 3 pick) over Tomlinson?

No. I said most of the time man. You know what I mean.

 

[fruity pebbles]

He put up huge numbers last year and I don't see how much as changed for him. Same QB, o-line is about equal to last year, defense should be even better. Not getting the hate.

 

[Ned]

2 Questions:2. How is 1500 total yards and 15 TDs not worth the 3rd pick?

Those stats are not worth the 3rd pick in the draft. 240pts is going to get you around the 7th/8th best RB in the draft. Over the past three years the #3 overall RB has averaged 311.55 which is about 12 TD's more than what he is projecting for LJ.LAUNCH

Someone who gets it!

wow you two couldn't be any further from the truth. i don't even want to waste the time to explain how wrong you are...

 

[Heinz 57]

 

[Blackjacks]

He put up huge numbers last year and I don't see how much as changed for him. Same QB, o-line is about equal to last year, defense should be even better. Not getting the hate.

Not the same line, the lost all world Will Shields, he held out and hasn't practiced with the team all offseason, HE IS COMING OFF OF THE MOST CARRIES IN A SEASON IN NFL HISTORY and he is just coming off of signing a big contract and sometimes people get lazy after they get paid.

 

[Keith Lewis]

He put up huge numbers last year and I don't see how much as changed for him. Same QB, o-line is about equal to last year, defense should be even better. Not getting the hate.

Not the same line, the lost all world Will Shields, he held out and hasn't practiced with the team all offseason, HE IS COMING OFF OF THE MOST CARRIES IN A SEASON IN NFL HISTORY and he is just coming off of signing a big contract and sometimes people get lazy after they get paid.

You didn't watch many Chiefs games last season.

 

[Keith Lewis]

He put up huge numbers last year and I don't see how much as changed for him. Same QB, o-line is about equal to last year, defense should be even better. Not getting the hate.

Not the same line, the lost all world Will Shields, he held out and hasn't practiced with the team all offseason, HE IS COMING OFF OF THE MOST CARRIES IN A SEASON IN NFL HISTORY and he is just coming off of signing a big contract and sometimes people get lazy after they get paid.

Brady/Manning/LT hit that wall after getting paid.

 

[Keith Lewis]

He put up huge numbers last year and I don't see how much as changed for him. Same QB, o-line is about equal to last year, defense should be even better. Not getting the hate.

Not the same line, the lost all world Will Shields, he held out and hasn't practiced with the team all offseason, HE IS COMING OFF OF THE MOST CARRIES IN A SEASON IN NFL HISTORY and he is just coming off of signing a big contract and sometimes people get lazy after they get paid.

You didn't watch many Chiefs games last season.

The Most carries in an NFL season myth was debunked.Everything in this post is laughable, I'll give you that he hasn't practiced.

 

[Raptors]

I'm an LJ owner so I'm biased, but give me the name of another RB (not named LT) that has a downside of 1500/15 and I'll gladly take them at the #2 pick. Yes, I realize the OP later went on to claim those numbers to be his ceiling, but perhaps his real projections for LJ should have been used rather than his ceiling? And anyone not happy with 1500/15 from any 1st round pick (yes, that includes LT) is in for a huge disappointment this year. How many RBs reach those numbers annually - maybe 3-4? So unless you're in the challenging 4 teamers, sign me up for a 1500/15 producer with my 1st round pick (whomever that happens to be).

 

[shadow2k]

So, you guys will be happy being at the end of Rd. 2 with that kind of production from the 3rd pick in the draft?

Do you not have guys like Addai, Westbrook, Parker, Henry, Maroney, Rudi, Gore, Alexander at or near those totals? If you want LJ @1.03 when you can get all of those other guys later in the draft, then be ahead of the LJ drafter in the 2nd round, then go for it.

LJ with 1500/15 is a bust to me @ 1.03. And I think that is closer to his ceiling than his floor!

Enjoy the bashing!

This just confuses me. If you have those guys predicted at or near those totals, then who in the hell are you going to draft at 1.03 that is NOT going to be a "bust"? Those are basically the ONLY guys being considered at 1.03, except for Bush in some PPR leagues. Seriously take a look at your list. If you don't draft LJ at 3, and you think you can get "all those other guys later in the draft"...who's being drafted at 3? That makes no sense at all.

 

[bcr8f]

He put up huge numbers last year and I don't see how much as changed for him. Same QB, o-line is about equal to last year, defense should be even better. Not getting the hate.

Not the same line, the lost all world Will Shields, he held out and hasn't practiced with the team all offseason, HE IS COMING OFF OF THE MOST CARRIES IN A SEASON IN NFL HISTORY and he is just coming off of signing a big contract and sometimes people get lazy after they get paid.

Open your eyes. He is dying to get on the field and show what he can do. If the holes aren't there downgrade the TE's and upgrade LJ getting more passes out of the backfield.He had 895 carries total in his NFL career. He's played one full year. HELLOOOO!

 

[shadow2k]

The big ?? around the QB, the WRs, the fact that Gonzalez will likely have to sit back and block more, etc. THAT has me worried... defenses will stack the line on him. Perhaps this year we can see if he can beat that, like LT did for years before San Diego started to step it up...?

What do you think was going on in KC last year? Green went down in game one, defenses didn't respect Huard, our WR's are the same, and the TE's had to help out the Tackles in pass protection. LJ was facing 8-9 in the box every game last year, he already showed you what he can do against it. I think that's what people who didn't watch the Chiefs last year don't realize.Do you really think Huard is that great of a QB? He put up decent numbers because D's were selling out to stop LJ...and most of them couldn't even pull it off with 9 in the box.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

He put up huge numbers last year and I don't see how much as changed for him. Same QB, o-line is about equal to last year, defense should be even better. Not getting the hate.

I have wondered this from the start. I don't get it either.

 

[Sleeper 43]

All the doom and gloom...... All these negative variables were in place last year. Expect a near duplicate season.

 

[Ilov80s]

I will add, I owned LJ in both my $ leagues last year so I followed him religiously in 06 (and almost had a heart attack when that ******* nearly broke his neck). Last year's KC o-line was HORRIBLE. There passing game wasn't much better. LJ faced 8-9 in the box every play. LJ earned every one of his 1700 yards. While I am sure it did take a toll, LJ is very young and fresh for an NFL feature back.

 

[Kevin Ashcraft]

All of you using the argument that the OL is worse are blind. Will Shields required help much of last season from C Casey Weigmann....exp. in pass pro. Shields was OLD and his play had receded......if you actually WATCH the games, you would see this.

This is the same reason I do not act like I know everything about every team, because I do not watch every play of every game. I do however, watch every play of Chiefs games, several times. It is also why there are people on here whose opinions I trust about certain teams.

When KC people say the OL is not worse, believe them. It may not be much better LOL, but is not worse.

 

[faulkfan]

It may be that depending on the point of view you wish to take, nothing has changed in KC.

Huard is QB, just like last year when Green went down. It is also worth noting that Green didn't look all that great when he came back.

They lost one of their heralded OLinemen (Roaf last year, Shields this year).

I'll give you that LJ hadn't been through the ringer with all those carries, but it might be worth pointing out that he was taking the normal beating that players take in training camp that he hasn't been exposed to this year.

I could actually make an argument that the Chiefs are better since they have an upgrade at WR with Bowe. Also, Huard will have a whole training camp with the 1st team which should make him more comfortable.

I'm not looking at LJ and expecting 1800 and 18, but I will echo the sentiments that have already been expressed and say if he drops 1500 and 15 combined then I'm going to be pretty darn happy.

Like I said, it really depends on the perspective you choose to take.

 

[Tom Servo]

He had 895 carries total in his NFL career. He's played one full year. HELLOOOO!

:X And since we're recycling arguments, I'll also point out LJ has LESS career carries than LT. If I weren't drafting #1, I'd be open to LJ at 1.03.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

All of you using the argument that the OL is worse are blind. Will Shields required help much of last season from C Casey Weigmann....exp. in pass pro. Shields was OLD and his play had receded......if you actually WATCH the games, you would see this.

This is the same reason I do not act like I know everything about every team, because I do not watch every play of every game. I do however, watch every play of Chiefs games, several times. It is also why there are people on here whose opinions I trust about certain teams.

When KC people say the OL is not worse, believe them. It may not be much better LOL, but is not worse.