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Which QB will be sacked the most in 2024? (1 Viewer)

TheWinz

Footballguy
Last year, here were the top 10 most sacked QB's
65 - Sam Howell
62 - Bryce Young
46 - Zach Wilson
45 - Russell Wilson
44 - Justin Fields
40 - Baker Mayfield
39 - Dak Prescott
38 - CJ Stroud
37 - Lamar Jackson
37 - Tommy DeVito
Only Howell, Mayfield, and Prescott were in the top 10 in pass attempts

But, in terms of how often they were sacked, here are the top 10 (I will only count those QB's who led their teams in pass attempts)
11.1% - Zach Wilson
10.6% - Justin Fields
10.5% - Bryce Young
9.9% - Will Levis
9.6% - Sam Howell
9.1% - Russell Wilson
8.6% - Tyrod Taylor
7.5% - Lamar Jackson
7.4% - Desmond Ridder
7.1% - CJ Stroud
I have to add this fact - The Giants were sacked 85 times (20 more than any other team), and if Tommy DeVito had 2 more pass attempts, he would top this list at 17.2%

So, which QB's will be tackling dummies in 2024?
 
I almost went JD but he's slender enough where he might not last through enough sacks to win this year long contest. Instead I'll go with Daniel Jones since might be big enough to take those repeated beatings.
 
Of all the guesses thus far, I have to challenge this one. Carr may not be fleet of foot, but he is a 10-yr veteran who has learned how to avoid sacks. Typically, if a QB has lasted as long as Carr in the NFL, he is either smart enough to throw it away, or dumb enough to take the hits (yeah, I'm talking to you, Russell Wilson).
 
Of all the guesses thus far, I have to challenge this one. Carr may not be fleet of foot, but he is a 10-yr veteran who has learned how to avoid sacks. Typically, if a QB has lasted as long as Carr in the NFL, he is either smart enough to throw it away, or dumb enough to take the hits (yeah, I'm talking to you, Russell Wilson).
Just ask his brother….
Whose brother? Zach Wilson or David Carr? They are/were both tackling dummies!
 
Of all the guesses thus far, I have to challenge this one. Carr may not be fleet of foot, but he is a 10-yr veteran who has learned how to avoid sacks. Typically, if a QB has lasted as long as Carr in the NFL, he is either smart enough to throw it away, or dumb enough to take the hits (yeah, I'm talking to you, Russell Wilson).
Just ask his brother….
He was OL challenged. That team ruined him. I think he was much better than Derick.
 
Of all the guesses thus far, I have to challenge this one. Carr may not be fleet of foot, but he is a 10-yr veteran who has learned how to avoid sacks. Typically, if a QB has lasted as long as Carr in the NFL, he is either smart enough to throw it away, or dumb enough to take the hits (yeah, I'm talking to you, Russell Wilson).
Just ask his brother….
He was OL challenged. That team ruined him. I think he was much better than Derick.
David Carr has always gotten too big of a pass in my opinion. He was as big a problem as the OL was. He held the ball way too long, and frequently came up short on deep throws. He was an accurate passer when he had time, and guys were wide open, but that's pretty much any pocket passer QB. He couldn't fit throws into tight windows to save his life, and settled for checkdowns instead of pressing defenses deep, despite having Andre Johnson. Its not a coincidence Johnson only took off after Carr was gone.

Derek Carr throws a much better deep ball, is more mobile, and gets rid of the ball on time, and that's current Derek Carr, 3 years ago he was a legit pro bowl QB with Gruden. I've always felt he got shafted by being related to David Carr. He's a 1st round pick without that baggage. He sort of got reverse Eli Manning'd.

As an aside, the guys who tend to get sacked most, are almost universally the ones who do the worst job of pocket awareness. Sometimes its just bad QBs who have no idea what they are looking at, and other times is good QBs who are hunting big plays, and feel the risk is worth the reward, Joe Burrow is a great example of the latter.
 
Of all the guesses thus far, I have to challenge this one. Carr may not be fleet of foot, but he is a 10-yr veteran who has learned how to avoid sacks. Typically, if a QB has lasted as long as Carr in the NFL, he is either smart enough to throw it away, or dumb enough to take the hits (yeah, I'm talking to you, Russell Wilson).
Just ask his brother….
He was OL challenged. That team ruined him. I think he was much better than Derick.
David Carr has always gotten too big of a pass in my opinion. He was as big a problem as the OL was. He held the ball way too long, and frequently came up short on deep throws. He was an accurate passer when he had time, and guys were wide open, but that's pretty much any pocket passer QB. He couldn't fit throws into tight windows to save his life, and settled for checkdowns instead of pressing defenses deep, despite having Andre Johnson. Its not a coincidence Johnson only took off after Carr was gone.

Derek Carr throws a much better deep ball, is more mobile, and gets rid of the ball on time, and that's current Derek Carr, 3 years ago he was a legit pro bowl QB with Gruden. I've always felt he got shafted by being related to David Carr. He's a 1st round pick without that baggage. He sort of got reverse Eli Manning'd.

As an aside, the guys who tend to get sacked most, are almost universally the ones who do the worst job of pocket awareness. Sometimes its just bad QBs who have no idea what they are looking at, and other times is good QBs who are hunting big plays, and feel the risk is worth the reward, Joe Burrow is a great example of the latter.
I concur.

More concisely, Carr is toast.
 
Derek Carr is entering year 11, and has averaged 15.9 games a season. Yeah, I'm just saying he has stayed healthy. He's only had one season where his sack rate is over 6.0%, and his lifetime number is a very good 5.1%. Here are the lifetime rates for this year's top 12 ADP QB's:
Josh Allen - 5.3%
Jalen Hurts - 6.7%
Lamar Jackson - 7.4%
Patrick Mahomes - 4.0%
Dak Prescott - 5.7%
Joe Burrow - 7.2%
CJ Stroud - 7.1%
Anthony Richardson - 7.7%
Kyler Murray - 6.2%
Jordan Love - 4.7%
Brock Purdy - 6.0%
Jayden Daniels - Rookie

I credit Derek's low percentage to his brain, not his body. Two of the most famous immobile QB's were Marino and Manning, and they knew when to get rid of the ball too. Their lifetime numbers were both 3.1%.
 
Counting sacks or sack to drop back ratio is one way to look at it.

I feel like sack to pressure percentage is a better indicator, especially when you couple it with the best/worst time to throw.

Pressures-to-Sacks % (worst) - 41 qualifiers
  1. DeVito 37.4%
  2. Jones 31.6%

    (should we stop and just say the answer is the NYG?)

  3. Tannehill 30.2%
  4. Young 24.5%
  5. Zappe 24.3%
  6. Z Wilson 24.3%
  7. Garoppolo 24.1%
  8. Browning 23.5%
  9. Howell 23.5%
  10. Stick 22.6%
This is a reminder a s*** ton of backups played last year and were mostly awful. Let's change the filter from 20% of league leading dropbacks to 50%.

Pressures-to-Sacks % (worst to best) - 28 qualifiers
  1. Bryce Young 24.5%
  2. Zach Wilson 24.3%
  3. Sam Howell 23.5%
  4. Desmond Ridder 22.3%
  5. Russell Wilson 20.6%

    (only 2 so far who will be likely starters this year)

  6. Aidan O'Connell 19.7%
  7. C.J. Stroud 19.6%
  8. Joe Burrow 19.5%
  9. Justin Fields 19.3%
  10. Tua Tagovailoa 19.3%
  11. Mac Jones 18.5%
  12. Trevor Lawrence 18.4%
  13. Baker Mayfield 18.3%
  14. Lamar Jackson 18.2%
  15. Gardner Minshew 17.9%
  16. Dak Prescott 17.9%
  17. Derek Carr 17.1%
  18. Kenny Pickett 16.9%
  19. Joshua Dobbs 16.2%
  20. Matthew Stafford 15.8%
  21. Justin Herbert 15.6%
  22. Jordan Love 15.2%
  23. Brock Purdy 14.6%
  24. Jalen Hurts 14.5%
  25. Geno Smith 13.9%
  26. Jared Goff 13.2%
  27. Patrick Mahomes 112%
  28. Josh Allen 10.3%
Time to Throw in seconds (slowest to fastest)
  1. Justin Fields 3.39
  2. Lamar Jackson 3.17
  3. Jalen Hurts 3.13
  4. Russell Wilson 3.07
  5. Joshua Dobbs 3.03
  6. Patrick Mahomes 3.03
  7. C.J. Stroud 293
  8. Zach Wilson 2.92
  9. Bryce Young 2.90
  10. Josh Allen 2.90
  11. Sam Howell 2.84
  12. Justin Herbert 2.79
  13. Baker Mayfield 2.76
  14. Kenny Pickett 2.73
  15. Geno Smith 2.73
  16. Jordan Love 2.72
  17. Brock Purdy 2.71
  18. Dak Prescott 2.69
  19. Desmond Ridder 2.68
  20. Gardner Minshew 2.67
  21. Aidan O'Connell 2.62
  22. Matthew Stafford 2.59
  23. Derek Carr 2.57
  24. Jared Goff 2.57
  25. Trevor Lawrence 2.53
  26. Joe Burrow 2.47
  27. Mac Jones 2.42
  28. Tua Tagovailoa 2.32
 
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The other thing that jumps out is 3 of the consensus Top 4 FF QBs are Top 10 at holding onto the ball the longest, yet because of their escape ability, Top 5 in lowest Pressure to Sacks %.
 
The Giants and Patriots needed a lot of talent infused and they only got some. I have a million questions about their rosters and it starts with the OL. I have extremely negative thoughts for these two this year so they'd be my favorites in this poll.

Titans line was awful and they added a highly touted rookie at LT and still have Qs on the right. Hiring a top OL coach could be the answer but it's also possible that's too simple. If it works, then OL coach agents need to demand more $ because I've never heard of them being especially highly paid.

The Falcons line was terrible and gradually got it together as the season wore on. The skill position players and former coaches have taken all the flack (some deservedly) but the line really has been blamed very little. With the new offense, we're maybe too confident they'll just be good again. This really was a brushed off story last year but it'll be front n center if Cousins is getting smacked.

The Panthers and Jets have convinced me they've got it together or they're on their way about a million times and it's rarely been true. I think the Jets will be good and I think the Panthers are on their way but when these franchises flop, OMG is it bad. I think it's absurd to quit on Bryce Young as many fans have but what if they're right? I feel like they've had eight coaches in five years with everyone selling pyrite so I'd be throwing some $ in the Panthers too if I were somehow betting on this.

In the betting type thinking- I think the Chiefs would be a high payout darkhorse bet to throw some money at here. Their line has often looked like gems and meh and how do they get the questionable ones to play so well in such a way that it's far superior to any other team. Maybe that magic lamp Reid's been rubbing doesn't work this year. If I say Wayne Morris and Jawaan Taylor are going to protect any other QB our minds go to somewhat negative or questionable thoughts but somehow we're all "Mahomes will be fine."
 
Darkhorse pick: Geno Smith. Seattle just hired an extremely pass heavy OC, lost their LG and C, and will likely be playing from behind more than usual.

Actual pick: Daniel Jones if he stays healthy and starting.
If Geno starts all year that’s a possibility. I think Howell takes over at some point but not enough to take the most sacks.

Even with the improvements I think Levis could take this. I think he’ll play hero ball often. But ultimately he still performs well, as he pulls off the hero plays frequently enough.
 

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