laughinboy_2000
Footballguy
So I'm checking the FBG Forums like I do on a daily basis, and I see my good buddy MOP has posted
a RB article with Tiers. Now last year everyone seemed to enjoy MOP's weekly RB's to Avoid/Exploit,
and if you recall, I joined in later in the season with the weekly WR's to Avoid/Exploit. I am
excited about this year more than any other, and since MOP has given his analysis on RB's this year,
I'll give my analysis on WRs this year. At first I thought I would do a top 100 list, but to be honest with
you, I'm stretched for time. This is part one of three that I will be posting.
Notice I'm not doing tiers like MOP, but I will give some comments about each player and why I like
or dislike their situation. I've also included projections with each player. Enjoy.
WARNING: Just a heads up, this is a very long article in my opinion.
This is Part 1 of 3. In this article I have my top 25, within the next couple days, parts 2 and 3 will be posted in 25
player parts. Let's get started.
1. Randy Moss,WR, New England - He can't possibly come close to the ridiculous stats he posted last year can he? I see another insane year from Randy this year. The Pats defense lost some key players during the offseason
and I think Brady and company will be in some shootouts this year. For some odd reason, the NFL also blessed the Pats
with a cupcake schedule. If Moss stays healthy, he will have another monsterous year. This is a no-brainer, Moss is
first round quality.
Projection: 92/1450/17
2. Terrell Owens, WR, Dallas - Whether you love him or hate him, if you draft T.O. this year, you are all but
guaranteed 1100+ yards receiving and at least 12 TDs. He's got the best QB in the NFC throwing him the ball, and in my opinion, a very weak non-conference schedule that includes Cleveland in week one, and then a three week stretch of Cincinatti, Arizona, and St. Louis in weeks five through seven. San Fran, Seattle, and Baltimore await towards the end of the year. I know this guy turns 35 in December but until I see this guy start showinghis age, he's a top three WR in the NFL.
Projection: 80/1150/13
3. Braylon Edwards, WR, Cleveland - I would like to introduce to everyone the next star WR in the NFL. With Moss, T.O. and Marvin Harrison getting older, Braylon is young and has NFL star written all over him. The guy specailizes in making silly catches. He's got all the ingredients this year for another solid year. The Cleveland defense stinks, QB Derrick Anderson loves throwing his way, and the team acquired WR Donte Stallworth during the off-season which only adds to the already explosive offense. I honestly don't see RB Jamal Lewis being as effective as he was last year, which to me leaves no running game for the Brownies. Expect Braylon to continue making crazy catches and posting solid stats.
Projection: 81/1250/12
4. Andre Johnson, WR, Houston - The only thing keeping this guy out of my top 3 is injury concerns. He's already nursing a hammy before the season has even started. When he's healthy, AJ is possibly the next best WR outside of Randy Moss. After four years of having David Carr as his QB, he finally got a QB in Matt Shaub that knows how to complete a pass in the NFL. Shaub and Johnon clicked immediately when they were on the field together as Johnson posted a solid 60/851/8 despite playing in just nine games. The running game in Houston this year is going to have a lot of question marks. Ahman Green and Chris Brown are often injured, and that to me says the passing game is going to have to be how the Texans score points this year. Johnson has little competition for receptions when he's on the field, and if he can remain healthy, he has a shot at being the top WR at the end of the year.
Projection: 90/1300/11
5. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona - Fitz is a reception and yardage monster. All this guy does is catch passes and rack up yards on a weekly basis. Arizona is claiming they want to run the ball more this year, but who are they kidding? Edge is on the wrong side of 30 and they have nobody else to tote the rock. There defense is not that great either which will force Leinart/Warner to throw the ball. Across from Fitz will be the unhappy and often injured WR Anquan Boldin. Yes,
Boldin will steal some receptions and the occasional TD, but at the end of the year, it's Fitz with the better numbers
usually. Fitz has something to prove this year with his new fat contract. I expect big things from Larry this year.
Projection: 100/1350/10
6. Chad Johnson, WR, Cincy- I can't think of a more undervalued WR this year than Ocho Cinco. For all the smack he talked about the Bengals during the offense, people have to understand, the guy just wants to win and be the best. Owners are all but guaranteed 1300+ yards and at least eight TDs with Chad. But 2008 will be special I think because of four reasons. One the man wants to be paid, either by the Bengals or some other NFL team. Two, the Bengals will have no running game this year what so ever. I have ZERO confidence in Rudi Johnson, Kenny Watson, or Chris Perry. Three, there is no more Chris Henry to steal receptions and TDs. And finally, how can you run the ball when your defense will be allowing a ton points this year? All of this adds up to Chad having yet another solid season.
Projection: 95/1400/10
7. Reggie Wayne, WR, Indy - Colts WR Reggie Wayne enjoyed a career year last year as he finally become the Coltsprimary weapon in their passing attack. Wayne has been lights out the past two years finishing as the third and fourth best fantasy WR in the respective years. I have no doubt in my mind he will lead the team in receptions and yards. So why do I have him ranked so low? There are several reasons. First is the Colts defense. This is a very sound defense which will not be allowing a lot of points if you ask me. That means the Colts can focus on running the ball more this year. Another reason is the return of Marvin Harrison who is now healthy. Let's remember, that Wayne had a terrific year without Marvelous Marv last year and all signs so far this year have Marvin looking great. He will steal some yards
and TDs from Wayne. And lastly, I think the coaches want to run the ball more this year to keep Peyton healthy. Peyton
is coming back from surgery and I believe the coaches will be very careful with him. Don't get me wrong, I love Wayne this year, but I would just be careful where you draft him.
Projection: 90/1300/10
8. Marques Colston, WR, New Orleans - Colston will be entering the all important third year in the NFL this year. This is typically the year WRs start to take off. Colston is the #1 WR in a pass happy offense and has a QB who has thrown for 4400+ yards in each of his first two season as the starter in New Orleans. Colston has racked up 2240 yards and 19 TDs in his first two years in the NFL. I saw an interesting stat regarding his numbers the first two years. In the last 45 years, only three WRs have more yards receiving in their first two years than Colston. They are Randy Moss, Jerry Rice, and Torry Holt. That's some elite company Colston has joined. I don't see the Saints passing less this year, so I expect Colston to continue racking up catches, yards, and TDs. Draft accordingly.
Projection: 93/1200/10
9. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR, Cincy - This is the "other" guy in Bengals land who will be playing for a new contract. Housh had an excellent season last year posting career highs in receptions, yards, and TDs as he ended up as the 7th best WR in fantasy land last year. Palmer looked to Housh early and ofter last year, and with the WR situation in Cincinatti looking the way it does now, he and Chad Johnson are going to be VERY busy and on the field this year. As stated with Chad Johnson, the Bengals released there only other deep threat in Chris Henry and the "new" #3 WR is either going to be Antonio Chatman or Glen Holt. So basically when Palmer is chucking the ball this year, he will have two options, #85 or Housh. Look for Housh to duplicate what he did last year.
Projection: 96/1250/10
10. Torry Holt, WR, St. Louis - It's hard to believe Holt will be entering his 10th year in the NFL and is 32 years old. In what many may consider a down year, Holt still delivered a 93/1189/7 season for the Rams. Injuries to QB Mark Bulger, RB Steven Jackson, and the offensive line took a toll on the Rams offense last year, but this year assumming S-Jax gets his tail in camp, most everybody is back and looking healthy again. I truly believe Holt has at least another two years of solid production left in him. He still runs great routes, has great hands, and knows how to get out of bounds and not take a hit. Don't be the owner to sleep on Holt this year.
Projection: 93/1200/10
11. Steve Smith, WR, Carolina - Smith would be in my top six if he was not suspended for the first two games. Smith managed to put up some solid stats last year considering what he went through with the QB situation last year. Delhomme is back and all reports have him looking great. The Panthers retooled their offense by going out and getting fan favorite WR Moose Muhammad and D.J. Hackett. They also draft rookie RB sensation Jonathan Stewart to the running game. I see a very balanced offense this year in Carolina. No longer can defense double and triple team Smith. Look for Smittee to tear it up and be focused when he returns in week 3. Smittee's a steal if he falls out of the third round.
Projection: 84/1200/9
12. Plaxico Burress, WR, NYG - In three seasons with the Gints, Burress has never finished worse than 12th in
fantasy land. Burress' 6'5 frame is especially difficult for defenders. Plax had an especially good start to the 2007
season by catching eight TDs in his first six games. One game included a game against Dallas opening night where he hauled in eight passes for 144 yards, and three TDs. That's the kind of potential Plax has with the G-men. His main two problems are Manning's inconsistentcy and his ankle injuries. If he can somehow get better play out of Manning and keep his ankles healthy, the sky is the limit for Burress.
Projection: 82/1100/9
13. Anquan Boldin, WR, Arizona - Boldin is one of my all-time favorites. Simply watch him and you will understand what a force he is on the field. He does it all. He blocks, catches, and runs over defenders who get in his way. Unfortunately this is exactly why he also gets dinged so much during the season. Last year though, Bolding stepped it up a level in the TD department hauling in a career high nine TDs. He's got potential to be a top 10 WR if he can stay on the field this year. As stated in Fitzgerald's write up, Arizona says they want to be a "running" team this year, but I'm not buying it. Look for "Q" to rack up more catches and yards this year and haul in another 8-9 TDs.
Projection: 85/1150/8
14. Wes Welker, WR, New England - This guy was a PPR STUD last year. He took full advantage of playing with the best QB in the NFL in Tom Brady, and the best WR in the NFL Randy Moss. As stated in the Moss piece, I see the Pats airing it out again this year. This guy may not get you a ton of TDs, but Brady showed me last year that if option "A" Moss is not open he has no problems dumping passes off to Welker who showed off some great hands and speed last year to move the ball. I don't see Welker's role changing much in 2008 so look for another 100+ catches and 1000+ yards.
Projection: 102/1050/8
15. Santonio Holmes, WR, Pittsburgh - I think this is the year Santonio will take over as the Steelers best WR. Despite missing three games last year, Holmes still came close to 1000 yards (942) and grabbed eight TDs. The Steelers are going to have a balanced offense this year, as I believe they will be able to run the ball with FWP and Mendenhall as well as find Holmes and Ward open down the field. The Steelers play what I consider a very easy schedule playing teams like Cincinatti, Cleveland and Baltimore twice. Holmes is not as valuable in PPR leagues, but he could approach 10 TDs if Big Ben throws the ball enough this year.
Projection: 65/1050/8
16. Brandon Marshall, WR, Denver - Here's another guy that would be in my top 10 if he wasn't facing a three game suspension. Marshall led the leauge in targets last year with 170. He has a fine QB in Jay Cutler throwing him the ball, and is by far their best option in the passing game. Yes his stats will take a hit this year due to his suspension, but owners need to be carefull not to let this guy slide too far. Expect another monster year from Brandon in 2008.
Projection: 73/1050/7
17. Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit - My bold prediction for this team is the CJ2 will be the leading WR in Detroit this year. I think owners may be underestimating him this year. Let's not forget, he was the #2 pick in the 2006 draft. People are forgetting last year was his rookie level, and if not for an early season back injury, I think he would have produced some solid stats down the stretch. A big reason why I like him this year is because I am not a believer in Roy Williams this year. He's missing the "IT" factor if you ask me. Last year it seemed like he and Kitna were on a completely different page. With a Martz type of opportunity, Roy struggled to live up to his hype. I really think Roy is going to have a hard time fighting for his opportunities this year with a maturing Calvin. I see CJ2 having a breakout season in 2008.
Projection: 72/1100/7
18. Greg Jennings, WR, Green Bay - Jennings busted out in a big way last year by catching 10 TDs despite missing three games with injuries. Jennings reminds me a lot of Lee Evans in Buffalo. He won't get you a lot of receptions, but Jennings is a threat to score on any play. All he needs is a QB with a strong arm and Rodgers has what I believe is just that, a strong arm. Defense will also need to pay attention to the Packer WRs, as well as their running game. All of this
adds up to Jennings having another strong season.
Projection: 62/950/8
19. Jason Witten, TE, Dallas - Witten enjoyed a career year last year in Jason Garrett's offense and finished as the #1 overall TE for 2007. Garrett focused on getting Witten involved within the offense last year and Witten responded very nicely with a rock solid 96/1145/7 2007 season. There is no reason to believe things will change this year. The Cowboys have the same Offensive Coordinator and Romo will be checking down to him when T.O. is not open. I don't think he will
reach the 90 catch mark again, but to me he should be the first TE off the board in 2008.
Projection - 75/900/7
20. Roy Williams, WR, Detroit - Roy has all the talent for an elite WR. But Williams has had problems focusing during games, frequently dropping passes and disappering at times during the game. He will be entering his fifth year in the league and is promising everyone that he will put it together in 2008. He's got Calvin Johnson and a running game to take the pressure off of him this year. I expect a good season out of RY, but nothing special.
Projection: 71/1050/7
21. Jerricho Cotchery, WR, NYJ - Good bye Chad Pennington, hello Brett Favre. Cotchery finally has a QB who can throw the deep ball. For the past couple of years, the Jets passing game has been all about short routes. With Favre in town, they will now be able to stretch the field. With Cotch entering his 5th year in the NFL and I have no doubts that this will be his best year as a Jet. The Jets also have WR Laverneous Coles and a solid running game with RBs Thomas Jones and Leon Washington. This should give him a lot of one on one coverages which will only help Cotchery's numbers. The Jets have the easiest schedule as far as pass defense in the league in my opinion. Cotchery is an easy player to pick to me as a 2008 breakout player to watch.
Projection: 77/975/7
22. Marvin Harrison, WR, Indy - Harrison disappointed fantasy nation last year, especially those who spent a second or third round pick on him. Harrison suffered a mysterious knee injury in week 3 and was never the same the rest of the year. Marvelous Marv will be 36 years old when week one starts, so father time may be catching up to one of the all-time greats. All preseason reports of Harrison have been great so far, and he looked like his old self in the first preseason game of the year. As stated before, he is no longer the #1 WR in Indy, but he has a shot at being the @2 WR in the Colts offense. It will all depend on how much the Colts want to pass this year. Marv could be a steal for owners this year, or he could again disappoint. I think Marv has one more decent year in him.
Projection: 75/925/7
23. Lee Evans, WR, Buffalo - If you look at Lee Evans' stats, you see something very odd. He has declined in odd numbered years as in 2005 and 2007, but has been solid in even numbered years in 2004 and 2006. Well, here comes 2008 and the Bills have what I feel is there best QB since 2004 in Trent Edwards. Evans has speed that will kill and is your typical homerun threat. The Bills schedule also fairs fairly well this year as they play teams such as St. Louis, Arizona,
Miami, Cleveland, San Fran, and Kansas City. If Edwards can throw the ball deep against the eight man fronts RB Marshawn Lynch will see, Evans will have 2004 and 2006 type numbers.
Projection: 67/1000/7
24. Kellen Winslow, TE, Cleveland - Here is the second option in the Brownies potent passing attack. Winslow was able to stay healthy last year and produce yet another 80+ reception year. He also posted career highs in yardage with 1106 and TDs with five. As mentioned before, the Brownies signed WR Donte Stallworth in the offseason which is going to take some pressure off of Winslow and Braylon Edwards. Winslow should be able to exploit some of the single coverage he will be getting with his great hands and size. I don't see the Brownies improving defensively this year which means the they could again be in some serious shootouts in 2008. This only increases Winslow's value. He has a shot at being the #1 TE in fantasy land in2008.
Projection: 77/990/6
25. Laverneous Coles, WR, NYJ - It's hard not to root for Coles this year. For the first time in a long time, he's got a solid QB throwing him the ball. Coles has always been a player I feel who is undervalued come draft day. I'd be careful with him this year though. I think he may be a bit overvalued with the arrival of Brett Favre. He has competition in Jerricho Cotchery and the running game with Thomas Jones and Leon Washington. If he can stay healthy though, it's hard seeing Lavern not being at least within the top 30 by the end of the year. The Jets schedule sets up very nicely and Coles has the opportunity to have a productive year.
Projection: 76/910/6
Discuss as you wish!
a RB article with Tiers. Now last year everyone seemed to enjoy MOP's weekly RB's to Avoid/Exploit,
and if you recall, I joined in later in the season with the weekly WR's to Avoid/Exploit. I am
excited about this year more than any other, and since MOP has given his analysis on RB's this year,
I'll give my analysis on WRs this year. At first I thought I would do a top 100 list, but to be honest with
you, I'm stretched for time. This is part one of three that I will be posting.
Notice I'm not doing tiers like MOP, but I will give some comments about each player and why I like
or dislike their situation. I've also included projections with each player. Enjoy.
WARNING: Just a heads up, this is a very long article in my opinion.
This is Part 1 of 3. In this article I have my top 25, within the next couple days, parts 2 and 3 will be posted in 25
player parts. Let's get started.
1. Randy Moss,WR, New England - He can't possibly come close to the ridiculous stats he posted last year can he? I see another insane year from Randy this year. The Pats defense lost some key players during the offseason
and I think Brady and company will be in some shootouts this year. For some odd reason, the NFL also blessed the Pats
with a cupcake schedule. If Moss stays healthy, he will have another monsterous year. This is a no-brainer, Moss is
first round quality.
Projection: 92/1450/17
2. Terrell Owens, WR, Dallas - Whether you love him or hate him, if you draft T.O. this year, you are all but
guaranteed 1100+ yards receiving and at least 12 TDs. He's got the best QB in the NFC throwing him the ball, and in my opinion, a very weak non-conference schedule that includes Cleveland in week one, and then a three week stretch of Cincinatti, Arizona, and St. Louis in weeks five through seven. San Fran, Seattle, and Baltimore await towards the end of the year. I know this guy turns 35 in December but until I see this guy start showinghis age, he's a top three WR in the NFL.
Projection: 80/1150/13
3. Braylon Edwards, WR, Cleveland - I would like to introduce to everyone the next star WR in the NFL. With Moss, T.O. and Marvin Harrison getting older, Braylon is young and has NFL star written all over him. The guy specailizes in making silly catches. He's got all the ingredients this year for another solid year. The Cleveland defense stinks, QB Derrick Anderson loves throwing his way, and the team acquired WR Donte Stallworth during the off-season which only adds to the already explosive offense. I honestly don't see RB Jamal Lewis being as effective as he was last year, which to me leaves no running game for the Brownies. Expect Braylon to continue making crazy catches and posting solid stats.
Projection: 81/1250/12
4. Andre Johnson, WR, Houston - The only thing keeping this guy out of my top 3 is injury concerns. He's already nursing a hammy before the season has even started. When he's healthy, AJ is possibly the next best WR outside of Randy Moss. After four years of having David Carr as his QB, he finally got a QB in Matt Shaub that knows how to complete a pass in the NFL. Shaub and Johnon clicked immediately when they were on the field together as Johnson posted a solid 60/851/8 despite playing in just nine games. The running game in Houston this year is going to have a lot of question marks. Ahman Green and Chris Brown are often injured, and that to me says the passing game is going to have to be how the Texans score points this year. Johnson has little competition for receptions when he's on the field, and if he can remain healthy, he has a shot at being the top WR at the end of the year.
Projection: 90/1300/11
5. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona - Fitz is a reception and yardage monster. All this guy does is catch passes and rack up yards on a weekly basis. Arizona is claiming they want to run the ball more this year, but who are they kidding? Edge is on the wrong side of 30 and they have nobody else to tote the rock. There defense is not that great either which will force Leinart/Warner to throw the ball. Across from Fitz will be the unhappy and often injured WR Anquan Boldin. Yes,
Boldin will steal some receptions and the occasional TD, but at the end of the year, it's Fitz with the better numbers
usually. Fitz has something to prove this year with his new fat contract. I expect big things from Larry this year.
Projection: 100/1350/10
6. Chad Johnson, WR, Cincy- I can't think of a more undervalued WR this year than Ocho Cinco. For all the smack he talked about the Bengals during the offense, people have to understand, the guy just wants to win and be the best. Owners are all but guaranteed 1300+ yards and at least eight TDs with Chad. But 2008 will be special I think because of four reasons. One the man wants to be paid, either by the Bengals or some other NFL team. Two, the Bengals will have no running game this year what so ever. I have ZERO confidence in Rudi Johnson, Kenny Watson, or Chris Perry. Three, there is no more Chris Henry to steal receptions and TDs. And finally, how can you run the ball when your defense will be allowing a ton points this year? All of this adds up to Chad having yet another solid season.
Projection: 95/1400/10
7. Reggie Wayne, WR, Indy - Colts WR Reggie Wayne enjoyed a career year last year as he finally become the Coltsprimary weapon in their passing attack. Wayne has been lights out the past two years finishing as the third and fourth best fantasy WR in the respective years. I have no doubt in my mind he will lead the team in receptions and yards. So why do I have him ranked so low? There are several reasons. First is the Colts defense. This is a very sound defense which will not be allowing a lot of points if you ask me. That means the Colts can focus on running the ball more this year. Another reason is the return of Marvin Harrison who is now healthy. Let's remember, that Wayne had a terrific year without Marvelous Marv last year and all signs so far this year have Marvin looking great. He will steal some yards
and TDs from Wayne. And lastly, I think the coaches want to run the ball more this year to keep Peyton healthy. Peyton
is coming back from surgery and I believe the coaches will be very careful with him. Don't get me wrong, I love Wayne this year, but I would just be careful where you draft him.
Projection: 90/1300/10
8. Marques Colston, WR, New Orleans - Colston will be entering the all important third year in the NFL this year. This is typically the year WRs start to take off. Colston is the #1 WR in a pass happy offense and has a QB who has thrown for 4400+ yards in each of his first two season as the starter in New Orleans. Colston has racked up 2240 yards and 19 TDs in his first two years in the NFL. I saw an interesting stat regarding his numbers the first two years. In the last 45 years, only three WRs have more yards receiving in their first two years than Colston. They are Randy Moss, Jerry Rice, and Torry Holt. That's some elite company Colston has joined. I don't see the Saints passing less this year, so I expect Colston to continue racking up catches, yards, and TDs. Draft accordingly.
Projection: 93/1200/10
9. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR, Cincy - This is the "other" guy in Bengals land who will be playing for a new contract. Housh had an excellent season last year posting career highs in receptions, yards, and TDs as he ended up as the 7th best WR in fantasy land last year. Palmer looked to Housh early and ofter last year, and with the WR situation in Cincinatti looking the way it does now, he and Chad Johnson are going to be VERY busy and on the field this year. As stated with Chad Johnson, the Bengals released there only other deep threat in Chris Henry and the "new" #3 WR is either going to be Antonio Chatman or Glen Holt. So basically when Palmer is chucking the ball this year, he will have two options, #85 or Housh. Look for Housh to duplicate what he did last year.
Projection: 96/1250/10
10. Torry Holt, WR, St. Louis - It's hard to believe Holt will be entering his 10th year in the NFL and is 32 years old. In what many may consider a down year, Holt still delivered a 93/1189/7 season for the Rams. Injuries to QB Mark Bulger, RB Steven Jackson, and the offensive line took a toll on the Rams offense last year, but this year assumming S-Jax gets his tail in camp, most everybody is back and looking healthy again. I truly believe Holt has at least another two years of solid production left in him. He still runs great routes, has great hands, and knows how to get out of bounds and not take a hit. Don't be the owner to sleep on Holt this year.
Projection: 93/1200/10
11. Steve Smith, WR, Carolina - Smith would be in my top six if he was not suspended for the first two games. Smith managed to put up some solid stats last year considering what he went through with the QB situation last year. Delhomme is back and all reports have him looking great. The Panthers retooled their offense by going out and getting fan favorite WR Moose Muhammad and D.J. Hackett. They also draft rookie RB sensation Jonathan Stewart to the running game. I see a very balanced offense this year in Carolina. No longer can defense double and triple team Smith. Look for Smittee to tear it up and be focused when he returns in week 3. Smittee's a steal if he falls out of the third round.
Projection: 84/1200/9
12. Plaxico Burress, WR, NYG - In three seasons with the Gints, Burress has never finished worse than 12th in
fantasy land. Burress' 6'5 frame is especially difficult for defenders. Plax had an especially good start to the 2007
season by catching eight TDs in his first six games. One game included a game against Dallas opening night where he hauled in eight passes for 144 yards, and three TDs. That's the kind of potential Plax has with the G-men. His main two problems are Manning's inconsistentcy and his ankle injuries. If he can somehow get better play out of Manning and keep his ankles healthy, the sky is the limit for Burress.
Projection: 82/1100/9
13. Anquan Boldin, WR, Arizona - Boldin is one of my all-time favorites. Simply watch him and you will understand what a force he is on the field. He does it all. He blocks, catches, and runs over defenders who get in his way. Unfortunately this is exactly why he also gets dinged so much during the season. Last year though, Bolding stepped it up a level in the TD department hauling in a career high nine TDs. He's got potential to be a top 10 WR if he can stay on the field this year. As stated in Fitzgerald's write up, Arizona says they want to be a "running" team this year, but I'm not buying it. Look for "Q" to rack up more catches and yards this year and haul in another 8-9 TDs.
Projection: 85/1150/8
14. Wes Welker, WR, New England - This guy was a PPR STUD last year. He took full advantage of playing with the best QB in the NFL in Tom Brady, and the best WR in the NFL Randy Moss. As stated in the Moss piece, I see the Pats airing it out again this year. This guy may not get you a ton of TDs, but Brady showed me last year that if option "A" Moss is not open he has no problems dumping passes off to Welker who showed off some great hands and speed last year to move the ball. I don't see Welker's role changing much in 2008 so look for another 100+ catches and 1000+ yards.
Projection: 102/1050/8
15. Santonio Holmes, WR, Pittsburgh - I think this is the year Santonio will take over as the Steelers best WR. Despite missing three games last year, Holmes still came close to 1000 yards (942) and grabbed eight TDs. The Steelers are going to have a balanced offense this year, as I believe they will be able to run the ball with FWP and Mendenhall as well as find Holmes and Ward open down the field. The Steelers play what I consider a very easy schedule playing teams like Cincinatti, Cleveland and Baltimore twice. Holmes is not as valuable in PPR leagues, but he could approach 10 TDs if Big Ben throws the ball enough this year.
Projection: 65/1050/8
16. Brandon Marshall, WR, Denver - Here's another guy that would be in my top 10 if he wasn't facing a three game suspension. Marshall led the leauge in targets last year with 170. He has a fine QB in Jay Cutler throwing him the ball, and is by far their best option in the passing game. Yes his stats will take a hit this year due to his suspension, but owners need to be carefull not to let this guy slide too far. Expect another monster year from Brandon in 2008.
Projection: 73/1050/7
17. Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit - My bold prediction for this team is the CJ2 will be the leading WR in Detroit this year. I think owners may be underestimating him this year. Let's not forget, he was the #2 pick in the 2006 draft. People are forgetting last year was his rookie level, and if not for an early season back injury, I think he would have produced some solid stats down the stretch. A big reason why I like him this year is because I am not a believer in Roy Williams this year. He's missing the "IT" factor if you ask me. Last year it seemed like he and Kitna were on a completely different page. With a Martz type of opportunity, Roy struggled to live up to his hype. I really think Roy is going to have a hard time fighting for his opportunities this year with a maturing Calvin. I see CJ2 having a breakout season in 2008.
Projection: 72/1100/7
18. Greg Jennings, WR, Green Bay - Jennings busted out in a big way last year by catching 10 TDs despite missing three games with injuries. Jennings reminds me a lot of Lee Evans in Buffalo. He won't get you a lot of receptions, but Jennings is a threat to score on any play. All he needs is a QB with a strong arm and Rodgers has what I believe is just that, a strong arm. Defense will also need to pay attention to the Packer WRs, as well as their running game. All of this
adds up to Jennings having another strong season.
Projection: 62/950/8
19. Jason Witten, TE, Dallas - Witten enjoyed a career year last year in Jason Garrett's offense and finished as the #1 overall TE for 2007. Garrett focused on getting Witten involved within the offense last year and Witten responded very nicely with a rock solid 96/1145/7 2007 season. There is no reason to believe things will change this year. The Cowboys have the same Offensive Coordinator and Romo will be checking down to him when T.O. is not open. I don't think he will
reach the 90 catch mark again, but to me he should be the first TE off the board in 2008.
Projection - 75/900/7
20. Roy Williams, WR, Detroit - Roy has all the talent for an elite WR. But Williams has had problems focusing during games, frequently dropping passes and disappering at times during the game. He will be entering his fifth year in the league and is promising everyone that he will put it together in 2008. He's got Calvin Johnson and a running game to take the pressure off of him this year. I expect a good season out of RY, but nothing special.
Projection: 71/1050/7
21. Jerricho Cotchery, WR, NYJ - Good bye Chad Pennington, hello Brett Favre. Cotchery finally has a QB who can throw the deep ball. For the past couple of years, the Jets passing game has been all about short routes. With Favre in town, they will now be able to stretch the field. With Cotch entering his 5th year in the NFL and I have no doubts that this will be his best year as a Jet. The Jets also have WR Laverneous Coles and a solid running game with RBs Thomas Jones and Leon Washington. This should give him a lot of one on one coverages which will only help Cotchery's numbers. The Jets have the easiest schedule as far as pass defense in the league in my opinion. Cotchery is an easy player to pick to me as a 2008 breakout player to watch.
Projection: 77/975/7
22. Marvin Harrison, WR, Indy - Harrison disappointed fantasy nation last year, especially those who spent a second or third round pick on him. Harrison suffered a mysterious knee injury in week 3 and was never the same the rest of the year. Marvelous Marv will be 36 years old when week one starts, so father time may be catching up to one of the all-time greats. All preseason reports of Harrison have been great so far, and he looked like his old self in the first preseason game of the year. As stated before, he is no longer the #1 WR in Indy, but he has a shot at being the @2 WR in the Colts offense. It will all depend on how much the Colts want to pass this year. Marv could be a steal for owners this year, or he could again disappoint. I think Marv has one more decent year in him.
Projection: 75/925/7
23. Lee Evans, WR, Buffalo - If you look at Lee Evans' stats, you see something very odd. He has declined in odd numbered years as in 2005 and 2007, but has been solid in even numbered years in 2004 and 2006. Well, here comes 2008 and the Bills have what I feel is there best QB since 2004 in Trent Edwards. Evans has speed that will kill and is your typical homerun threat. The Bills schedule also fairs fairly well this year as they play teams such as St. Louis, Arizona,
Miami, Cleveland, San Fran, and Kansas City. If Edwards can throw the ball deep against the eight man fronts RB Marshawn Lynch will see, Evans will have 2004 and 2006 type numbers.
Projection: 67/1000/7
24. Kellen Winslow, TE, Cleveland - Here is the second option in the Brownies potent passing attack. Winslow was able to stay healthy last year and produce yet another 80+ reception year. He also posted career highs in yardage with 1106 and TDs with five. As mentioned before, the Brownies signed WR Donte Stallworth in the offseason which is going to take some pressure off of Winslow and Braylon Edwards. Winslow should be able to exploit some of the single coverage he will be getting with his great hands and size. I don't see the Brownies improving defensively this year which means the they could again be in some serious shootouts in 2008. This only increases Winslow's value. He has a shot at being the #1 TE in fantasy land in2008.
Projection: 77/990/6
25. Laverneous Coles, WR, NYJ - It's hard not to root for Coles this year. For the first time in a long time, he's got a solid QB throwing him the ball. Coles has always been a player I feel who is undervalued come draft day. I'd be careful with him this year though. I think he may be a bit overvalued with the arrival of Brett Favre. He has competition in Jerricho Cotchery and the running game with Thomas Jones and Leon Washington. If he can stay healthy though, it's hard seeing Lavern not being at least within the top 30 by the end of the year. The Jets schedule sets up very nicely and Coles has the opportunity to have a productive year.
Projection: 76/910/6
Discuss as you wish!
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I'm really high on him this year. I think he breaks out this year and finds a way into the top 20.
