Lessons learned from 2007 (1 Viewer)

[kawaihae]

While they are fresh in our minds, lets post some general lessons we learned this year that can help us for next year.

1) Follow the off-season developments of a team's O-Line. Not to over simplify, but the Bengals lost Eric Steinbach and came in to 2007 with two injured tackles. At the same time, the Browns got Steinbach, drafted Joe Thomas and make some good offseason signings. I think their offenses reflected those situations. Also look to the Jets losing Kendall and the preseason talk of the improvement of the Raiders line (well...at least for the running game). The year before, the Vikings did the most to improve their line. Pretty clearly reflects fantasy performance.

2) Follow the coordinators changes and attitudes as much as the head coaches. Do the research and see who's calling the plays. Who cares if Tomlin is Pittsburgh's coach if Arians is deciding what to do on the field? And...if a coordinator says he's throwing, believe him.

3) Spend a bunch of late round picks on back-up RBs. This year make it clear that the new-breed defensive players are just too strong and too fast. Most full time running backs simply can't make it through a season without getting banged up. Kolby Smith, Maurice Morris, Chester Taylor, Justin Fargas, Earnest Graham, Ryan Grant...even RBBC guys geting less carries like Fred Taylor and Marion Barber...were fanasy gold at times throughout the season.

4) Don't overestimate the "injury prone label" when making pre-season evaluations. Just way too unpredictable. Guess who missed time due to injury this year? Every running back in my league's 1st round (except LT). Guess who didn't miss any? Clinton Portis. Go back to the preseason discussions and see if you would've believed that (especially compared to "old reliable" Rudi Johnson).

5) Wait on drafting a defense. Every year I grab a D, and every year I drop them around week 5 for a team that wasn't on anyone's radar before the season started. Whoever spent a 6th round pick on Baltimore and Chicago or drafted the Broncos, Miami, Eagles, Niners and Panthers were upset, while everyone who grabbed the Seahawks, Titans, Colts, Bucs, or Giants off the waiver wire was stoked.

6) Wait on drafting QBs. Some prior posts by FREEBAGEL sold me. I couldn't do them justice, so search for em.

These are some off the top of my head. Please feel free to add.

 

[nerangers]

My lesson was about targeting players, and when to go after them.

Players I wanted this year based on my own rankings, I did not aggressively go after early enough in the off-season. By the time camp came around, it was too late. Ben Roethlisberger comes to mind. He finished as the 7th QB in my league. The owner in my league who ended up trading for him got him at a fair price. I only wish I had put the offer out there. The worse thing that could have happened was that he says no. I think sometimes we think everyone values players the same way we do. This is not usually the case. I found out I valued Santonio Holmes higher than most in my league, and overpaid for him what other would have.

For myself in my dynasty league, I am going to look at stats for players last six weeks, as well as the stats for the whole season. Sometimes a player comes on strong later in the year when given an opportunity, and then continues going into the next season. A example of this from last year could be someone like Greg Jennings. It is better to start writing these players down now while it is fresh in your mind.

Also, note players that you feel under performed mainly due to injury and circumstances, and target them early in the off-season. I find the closer you get to camp, the less likely you are to pull these players away. Try and get them while their owners are upset with them for costing them a championship!

 

[Spike]

I think there was a real sea change in how RBs are being utilized. I cannot back this by stats (and it might be easily refuted), but it seemed that there wasn't as much scoring at the position as in recent years.

This could be because I'm a Patriots fan and the brunt of their scoring has been via the air.

 

[smcindoe]

The Witten Rule: If you have to choose between a TE who gets a lot of yards but few TDs, or a lot of TD but few yards, take the guy with the yards. TDs are hard to predict for any player, but at a position where four TDs is poor and eight is fantastic, you should all but ignore the stat and focus on targets, catches and yards.

The Romo/Rivers Rule: At QB, take a guy with a proven track record, even if only for a few games, over a guy with potential. Most great young QBs get there eventually, but they go at their own pace. In a redraft, you don't want a QB1 who turns out to be one more year away from putting it together. Next year, this may be the Anderson/Cutler rule.

The RB rule: You can't have too many. You really, really can't. You just can't. No, really you can't. Can't.

The Denver RB collorary: Stay the hell away. Yeah, I know, everyone else knew this already. Dammit.

The Steve Smith Rule: When you draft a WR, you are drafting his QB too. There is no such thing as a great WR with a bad QB. If a QB gets hurt and he doesn't have a decent replacement, forget everything you think you know about the WR. Warning: rule may not apply in week 16.

 

[PantherPower]

if you play in BBID leagues, use your BBIDs early. This past season (for the first time ever) I used the full amount in all 9 of my dynasty leagues after week 1 to land James Jones and Welker. I think more times than not, people try to save them over the course of the year, and finish the year with wasted bucks.

 

[NeverEnough]

Don't always draft RBs the 1st couple rounds. Romo & TO carried me.

 

[Brewzers]

While they are fresh in our minds, lets post some general lessons we learned this year that can help us for next year.

1) Follow the off-season developments of a team's O-Line. Not to over simplify, but the Bengals lost Eric Steinbach and came in to 2007 with two injured tackles. At the same time, the Browns got Steinbach, drafted Joe Thomas and make some good offseason signings. I think their offenses reflected those situations. Also look to the Jets losing Kendall and the preseason talk of the improvement of the Raiders line (well...at least for the running game). The year before, the Vikings did the most to improve their line. Pretty clearly reflects fantasy performance.

This little gem is worth the price of admission.

 

[BobbyLayne]

My lesson was about targeting players...Sometimes a player comes on strong later in the year when given an opportunity, and then continues going into the next season. A example of this from last year could be someone like Greg Jennings. It is better to start writing these players down now while it is fresh in your mind.Also, note players that you feel under performed mainly due to injury and circumstances, and target them early in the off-season. I find the closer you get to camp, the less likely you are to pull these players away. Try and get them while their owners are upset with them for costing them a championship!

Just a minor point of information: Jennings started 2006 strong, battled some injuries, and faded. He was horrible in the 2nd half last season.However, I am going to strongly agree with larger point of utilizing your time now to begin planning for next season.Now, when the memory is fresh, is a great time to evaluate players you want on your squad. Before trades and salary cap releases and the NFL draft and the non-stop hype, do a mock draft. Save it in Excel. You can update it later as situations change, but save that original end of the season mock. It will serve as a good reality check.There are certain guys who filled in this year because of injury who are going to have very little impact in 2008. We see this year in and year out. Keep that in mind as you evaluate talent and study film.Another good exercise this time of year is to evaluate your league. In my primary long-standing redraft, I know the folks pretty well. None of us are out and out blind homers, but I know the guy who is the Pats fan, the Indy fan, the Eagles and Stillers fans....and they consistently target certain players or ex-players they were used to seeing. You know they overvalue their hometown players a bit. The other thing I have noticed is some guys go for the QB too early do silly things like draft backup TEs and Ks. Where I have benefited from this is by overstocking RBs every year. Typical season in our league: the guys who went QB/WR heavy early get some monster blowups, and I struggle around .500 for 4-6 games. Injuries hit, the weather turns cold, and my roster turns to gold.Best lesson I learned this year (again) - be patient. Don't give up on a guy too early. Recognize a bad situation that won't get better (QB injury, shaky O-line, etc), but if the reasons for drafting a player didn't change, then just hold on and wait for everything to settle out.The other lesson (another repeat that keeps holding true every year): Build depth up until Week 8-10. Make your moves for studs with good playoff schedules by giving up that depth. Every move you make after October 1 has to be to build towards the best possible lineup with great matchups Weeks 14-16.

 

[PantherPower]

While they are fresh in our minds, lets post some general lessons we learned this year that can help us for next year.

1) Follow the off-season developments of a team's O-Line. Not to over simplify, but the Bengals lost Eric Steinbach and came in to 2007 with two injured tackles. At the same time, the Browns got Steinbach, drafted Joe Thomas and make some good offseason signings. I think their offenses reflected those situations. Also look to the Jets losing Kendall and the preseason talk of the improvement of the Raiders line (well...at least for the running game). The year before, the Vikings did the most to improve their line. Pretty clearly reflects fantasy performance.

This little gem is worth the price of admission.

That is true, and it also speaks volumes of how amazing Clinton Portis really is. He had the most injured, make shift line in the league, and still finished in the top 10 in most scoring formats (He finished #5 in our PPR format). And to think some owners got him in the 3rd and 4th round this year.

 

[FantasyTrader]

All I have to say is be EXTREMELY careful about what you "learned" this year. I'm not saying there aren't things to be considered: #'s 1 & 4 were very insightful but #3 could get you into big trouble.

 

[Nemesis]

1-I learned to forget 2007 and mark it down as an unusual year.

2-For all the Ryan Grants, Ernest Grahams this year.......nobody is ever going to draft these types of no-name guys in a normal league setting so don't try to go after 3rd stringers......But pay attention as the season goes on b/c they could have been had on waivers and those that took a chance got rewarded in a big way.

3-Also, I learned that FF USED TO BE about preparation.....now I'm more and more leaning that w/ the explosion of info out there on the internet and media shows, the playing field is level for almost all types of owners and more & more luck is sinking into the hobby. Sure, you can try to still get an ever so small edge over the competition......but I'm beginning to pull back from the hobby and wonder if I should just spend more time with my kids. (oh, I'd still play FF........just not overanalyze things and waste my time anymore.)

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

The Gruden Playoff Rule: the SOB will sit his starters early if they are in the playoffs already...even if they are not even WINNING THE GAME

 

[EBF]

3-Also, I learned that FF USED TO BE about preparation.....now I'm more and more leaning that w/ the explosion of info out there on the internet and media shows, the playing field is level for almost all types of owners and more & more luck is sinking into the hobby. Sure, you can try to still get an ever so small edge over the competition......but I'm beginning to pull back from the hobby and wonder if I should just spend more time with my kids. (oh, I'd still play FF........just not overanalyze things and waste my time anymore.)

Luck is no doubt a huge factor, but I think dynasty leagues help reduce the luck factor because owners have more time to separate themselves. It's sort of like the difference between playing 5 hands and 500 hands of poker. Any chump can get lucky and come out ahead after 5 hands. But after 500 hands, the outcome of the game is a much more accurate reflection of the abilities of the competitors. So maybe you should play dynasty if you aren't already.

 

[The Dude]

[The Denver RB collorary: Stay the hell away. Yeah, I know, everyone else knew this already. Dammit.

Better yet, what have we learned about Denver RB situation that you can benefit from? Let somebody else count on the Denver RB for production but be there to take a chance on a late round flyer. Selvin Young was taken in the last round of our draft.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

[The Denver RB collorary: Stay the hell away. Yeah, I know, everyone else knew this already. Dammit.

Better yet, what have we learned about Denver RB situation that you can benefit from? Let somebody else count on the Denver RB for production but be there to take a chance on a late round flyer. Selvin Young was taken in the last round of our draft.

Better yet...draft the backups and sell high, especially in a dynasty or keeper league.

 

[Routilla]

Always swing for the fences on draft day. You cannot predict injuries or a team's ineptness due to injuries. Use the waiver wire, it is as important as your draft once injuries begin to happen. Every year there will be guys like Warner and Grant who emerge as huge contributors for whoever grabs them.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

To go QB/WR or QB/TE duo.

 

[FUBAR]

The Ryan Grant / Kenny Watson rule - look for tasty situations with RBs. We all knew these teams had a quality QB, WRs and OL. This leads itself to opportunity. This has also worked in the past more or less for Ladell Betts, Willie Parker, Larry Johnson and Travis Henry.

 

[css2373]

3-Also, I learned that FF USED TO BE about preparation.....now I'm more and more leaning that w/ the explosion of info out there on the internet and media shows, the playing field is level for almost all types of owners and more & more luck is sinking into the hobby. Sure, you can try to still get an ever so small edge over the competition......but I'm beginning to pull back from the hobby and wonder if I should just spend more time with my kids. (oh, I'd still play FF........just not overanalyze things and waste my time anymore.)

My 16 yr old neice took a "sports performance management" class in high school and part of the class was to participate in FF. She got a magazine and followed it to a T and did really well. Long gone are the days of stock piling underrated players and drafting your way to a title. FF has now become all about the WW and trades. Or like was said above, get into dynasty and dominate for years through sound drafting.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

I learned that SOS (strength of schedule) is actually more useless than I thought. Marshawn Lynch was supposed to have an impossible schedule and was a top 10 running back until he got hurt. He'll still be top-15. Next season SOS will have absolutely no bearing whatsoever on which player I draft/pick up/trade/whatever.

 

[Rounders]

:sehorn: Will be back later to add thoughts

 

[Mr. Mojo]

Good points here.

I would add that I just spent time taking notes to help with next year (while it is fresh in my mind).

The injury trend has increased horribly the last couple years, so make sure you have depth and are constantly scouring the waiver wire for possibilities.

I'm going to remind everyone how RBs aren't that important anymore and see if they fall for it in 08.

 

[Boston]

Pay attention to the schedule once Thursday and Saturday games become part of the norm. I thought I was in great shape with some backups (i.e. replacing injured players) but because they were playing on a Thursday or Saturday night I wasn't in a position to use them as I awaited a gametime decision on Sunday. Obviously, this also applies to the more traditional 1:00 v. 4:00 Sunday games as well as Sunday and Monday night.

 

[Phurfur]

3-Also, I learned that FF USED TO BE about preparation.....now I'm more and more leaning that w/ the explosion of info out there on the internet and media shows, the playing field is level for almost all types of owners and more & more luck is sinking into the hobby. Sure, you can try to still get an ever so small edge over the competition......but I'm beginning to pull back from the hobby and wonder if I should just spend more time with my kids. (oh, I'd still play FF........just not overanalyze things and waste my time anymore.)

Prep was the part of the game I loved, the more time you put in the better your team was. Now for a small fee you can buy all this information so there is no advantage to preparation. 1. The hobby has changed and us old timers need to change with it.

 

[TheFanatic]

I won my main league this year for the first time.

Let me preface with some background on my main league as this advice won't pertain to everyone. The league has a $32 million cap, contracts, signing bonuses, no trade clauses, franchise and transition tags, draft pick compensation, the ability to move money back a year at a 25% penalty, draft picks traded out through 2011.

In this league I was the guy that made the fewest moves every year. And in this league there aren't many moves made as say a redraft because if you cut a player you are responsible for his contract as well as whomever you replace that player with. Every owner is up against the cap. Making trades is a LOT more complex than trading talent. $$ is usually the biggest factor.

But even in a league with very few moves compared to most leagues I was in the bottom tier in the amount of moves. My strategy was to stock pile first round picks and build through the draft. Rookies are cheap for 3 years which is fiscally responsible in this league. At one point I had 3 first round picks the next 3 years and made the playoffs every other year (only 4 teams make it out of 10 teams). So I was competitive and stacked for the future.

Well this offseason I revamped my entire team. Those first rounders in future years don't score points this year. I traded Addai (and his cheap rookie contract) and 2 first rounders for LT. LT is 25% of my cap next year. I traded Alexander for Peyton and a 1st rounder. Peyton is 25% of my cap next year. I traded Benson and a 1st rounder for MJD. I traded Thomas Jones and a 1st rounder for Rudi Johnson. I traded a 1st rounder for Michael Turner just in case LT went down and Turner is a FA in my league as well as the NFL now so I don't get to keep him when he is actually a starter somewhere unless I can outbid someone else. I traded Shockey for Winslow.

My starting roster at the end of 2006 which was a playoff team (lost in the first round) was this:

McNabb - Lost to FA

Alexander - Traded for Manning and 1st rounder

Addai - traded with 2 first rounders for LT

TJones/Benson were bye week fillins - TJones and a 1st rounder for Rudi, Benson and a 1st rounder for MJD

Javon Walker - Still on the roster riding the pine

Santana Moss - Lost to FA

Coles was a bye week fillin - lost to FA

Shockey - traded for Winslow

K and D/ST aren't that big a deal. 90% of these guys are just plug and play. Only a few really differentiate themselves. I think I had a top 10 D but barely this year (Cinci)

My roster in 2007

Manning

LT

Rudi/Watson for about 8 weeks and then traded them for Jamal Lewis who was money down the stretch

Fred Taylor/MJD as by week fill ins

Braylon Edwards - a throw in on a trade in 2006 to make the money work out

Whichever guy had the cake matchup between Crayton/Curtis/Berrian

Winslow

The lesson here? Don't sit on those 1st round picks. If you are interested in a player and just can't get the other owner to pull the trigger, throw in a 1st rounder and ask for a 2nd back....Do what you have to do to get that player. Those picks don't score points for you. And it's a crap shoot as to whether you get the next ADP or the next Benson

Next year I return:

Manning

LT

MJD

Walker

Winslow

I will tag Edwards and either Jamal or Turner.

Instead of using those picks to acquire talent I will need to use those picks to offload $$$ on other owners. I have a solid core so I don't need much to fill it out.

Good luck fellas....I'm riding high right now!?!?!

 

[qimqam]

3) Spend a bunch of late round picks on back-up RBs. This year make it clear that the new-breed defensive players are just too strong and too fast. Most full time running backs simply can't make it through a season without getting banged up. Kolby Smith, Maurice Morris, Chester Taylor, Justin Fargas, Earnest Graham, Ryan Grant...even RBBC guys geting less carries like Fred Taylor and Marion Barber...were fanasy gold at times throughout the season.

Kolby Smith, Justin Fargas, Earnest Graham, and Ryan Grant weren'y even considered backups this year. They were 3rd or 4th on the depth charts so there is no way anyone would have drafted them

 

[Nash Bridges]

draft alot of rb's, always play your studs, and sleep at a holiday inn the night before.

 

[nerangers]

My lesson was about targeting players...Sometimes a player comes on strong later in the year when given an opportunity, and then continues going into the next season. A example of this from last year could be someone like Greg Jennings. It is better to start writing these players down now while it is fresh in your mind.Also, note players that you feel under performed mainly due to injury and circumstances, and target them early in the off-season. I find the closer you get to camp, the less likely you are to pull these players away. Try and get them while their owners are upset with them for costing them a championship!

Just a minor point of information: Jennings started 2006 strong, battled some injuries, and faded. He was horrible in the 2nd half last season.However, I am going to strongly agree with larger point of utilizing your time now to begin planning for next season.

You are right on this point...maybe he started off hot??? Not sure why I thought he was going to do well this year, but didn't pull the trigger.

 

[dickey moe]

Work the waiver wire like a mother.

 

[TheFanatic]

Work the waiver wire like a mother.

No kidding. The guy I played in the SB started Earnest Graham and Kolby Smith against me. Sure they didn't do so well week 16, but they got him to week 16 when they helped him beat the conference champ...Ryan Grant won a lot of people championships. Dwayne Bowe helped a lot of people along the way. Derek Anderson won a lot of games for people.

 

[BigTex]

 

[Banger]

The O-line comment is spot on and the most important evaluator IMO of RB's and to a lesser extent QB's (horrendous lines will effect QB play).

Make your evaluations of players and situations, listen to input but make your own decisions. There's a lot of group think on the board and you should trust your instincts.

 

[ipljeff]

 

[BroncoFreak_2K3]

1-I learned to forget 2007 and mark it down as an unusual year.

2-For all the Ryan Grants, Ernest Grahams this year.......nobody is ever going to draft these types of no-name guys in a normal league setting so don't try to go after 3rd stringers......But pay attention as the season goes on b/c they could have been had on waivers and those that took a chance got rewarded in a big way.

3-Also, I learned that FF USED TO BE about preparation.....now I'm more and more leaning that w/ the explosion of info out there on the internet and media shows, the playing field is level for almost all types of owners and more & more luck is sinking into the hobby. Sure, you can try to still get an ever so small edge over the competition......but I'm beginning to pull back from the hobby and wonder if I should just spend more time with my kids. (oh, I'd still play FF........just not overanalyze things and waste my time anymore.)

This is my thinking to a tee, and I hope I can stick to it and not get caught up with so much pre-draft prep. Invariably, whomever wins our league or does very well is the guy who comes to the draft with a simple list of players, all ranked by position. That's it. Well, that and a whole bunch of luck.No more over analysis for me.

 

[burd]

Get more familiar w/ your league's scoring system to be better prepared for next season.

17 out of the top 20 scoring players in my league were QBs. Im in a start 2QB league, so as important as it was to have great RBs, having great QBs was just as important in this league.

 

[posty]

Keep remembering that fantasy football is 100% luck...

 

[Yitbos69]

I learned that Luck plays the largest role in FF.........

 

[Pictus Cat]

1-I learned to forget 2007 and mark it down as an unusual year.

2-For all the Ryan Grants, Ernest Grahams this year.......nobody is ever going to draft these types of no-name guys in a normal league setting so don't try to go after 3rd stringers......But pay attention as the season goes on b/c they could have been had on waivers and those that took a chance got rewarded in a big way.

3-Also, I learned that FF USED TO BE about preparation.....now I'm more and more leaning that w/ the explosion of info out there on the internet and media shows, the playing field is level for almost all types of owners and more & more luck is sinking into the hobby. Sure, you can try to still get an ever so small edge over the competition......but I'm beginning to pull back from the hobby and wonder if I should just spend more time with my kids. (oh, I'd still play FF........just not overanalyze things and waste my time anymore.)

This is my thinking to a tee, and I hope I can stick to it and not get caught up with so much pre-draft prep. Invariably, whomever wins our league or does very well is the guy who comes to the draft with a simple list of players, all ranked by position. That's it. Well, that and a whole bunch of luck.No more over analysis for me.

There was a time when I sent the info to owners having trouble in my league just to spark some more competition and interest.They didn't even read it.

The availability of information and doing the work are two different things. Some don't even know how to use it even if they can find it.

Don't be the guy looking back at the draft as you find out information thinking you would have drafted that guy if you knew what you could have known.

Same with the waiver wire. Know before the info comes out the competition paid for.

Paying attention to the games to get the real difference makers can give you a significant advantage.

I'm a guy who pays for the info too. I use my judgement before it comes out and the info after.

Good Luck!

 

[sheckiec]

Keep remembering that fantasy football is 100% luck...

I disagree. Fantasy Football is 110% luck and -10% skill. It's that -10% that cost me a playoff spot this year.My overthinking probably cost me the one game that would have got me into the playoffs. Instead our playoffs were dominated by a bunch of guys reading magazines.

 

[LionsFan78]

Get more familiar w/ your league's scoring system to be better prepared for next season.

17 out of the top 20 scoring players in my league were QBs. Im in a start 2QB league, so as important as it was to have great RBs, having great QBs was just as important in this league.

100 % IMO that's one of the most basic yet overlooked pieces of advice out there. Never hurts to take a list of the top 25 or so players at each position based on standard scoring, and apply your league scoring to that list, and see how much changes. It'll give you a good look at some value plays, as well as an inside look into how exactly certain players finished where they did, and why they might not be so attractive w/ your league settings.

 

[LionsFan78]

A few I've made mental notes on...

1) When the time comes around, MOCK DRAFT like crazy, from as many positions as possible. Plenty of sites out there to do it, this included. Yes it's fun, but more importantly it does something extremely valuable. It forces you to make decisions before draft day. "I'm up, would I draft Player A ahead of Player B?". Tough decisions like that can be made ahead of time, and more importantly, you understand WHY you're making that decision. It also gives you a chance to experiment with different strategies (RB-RB, RB-WR, WR-WR, etc.), and see what kind of teams you come up with.

2) Never underestimate the power of your own research/rankings. I do value many sites and writers' opinion and rankings, but I also think it's crucial to do my own. It gives me a chance to form my own opinions about players, rather than base my decisions on another ranking list.

3) And speaking of rankings....A few things I've tried that I feel comfortable with: 1) First off, I do a set of rankings right now, while everything is fresh in my head. Then I don't even touch them again until well after the NFL draft and Free Agency. 2) When ranking/researching players, I throw week 17 out of the equation. Like it never happened. It affects too many top players that are obviously limited that week, and it also inflates many other players. While it's useful in targetting potential sleepers, as far as most of the other top players are concerned, I'll know the same exact information about them without week 17 stats. Not to mention it hurts you if fantasy PPG is something you give serious consideration to. 3) While it's important to evaluate a whole season of stats for players, it's also just as important to compare everyone's stats using the second half of the year only. I get a good feel for how players "heated up" or "cooled down" towards the end of the season, as well as how certain players that started off slow compare to others down the stretch.

 

[Chreesto]

This is what I try to remember every year but was especially important this year - WATCH THE GAMES. The more football you watch the better you'll be.

For instance:

I was intrigued by the trade for Grant, Thompson doesn't do a lot of trading so I thought there must be something to this. I made a point to watch how he played from his very first opportunity. Because I liked his style and thought he was talented I grabbed him off of the waiver wire while deshawn wynn was still hot. Your eyes will tell you things that stats can't. Trust your ability to recognize good players before the stats prove them to be. Also trust your eyes to show you when something is anomalous. If your watching convinces you that a player overperformed this year and his production was based on unlikely circumstance you can trade him away to a stat hound at the peak of his value. The NFL network is a must have.

 

[Texasmouth]

While they are fresh in our minds, lets post some general lessons we learned this year that can help us for next year.

1) Follow the off-season developments of a team's O-Line. Not to over simplify, but the Bengals lost Eric Steinbach and came in to 2007 with two injured tackles. At the same time, the Browns got Steinbach, drafted Joe Thomas and make some good offseason signings. I think their offenses reflected those situations. Also look to the Jets losing Kendall and the preseason talk of the improvement of the Raiders line (well...at least for the running game). The year before, the Vikings did the most to improve their line. Pretty clearly reflects fantasy performance.

2) Follow the coordinators changes and attitudes as much as the head coaches. Do the research and see who's calling the plays. Who cares if Tomlin is Pittsburgh's coach if Arians is deciding what to do on the field? And...if a coordinator says he's throwing, believe him.

3) Spend a bunch of late round picks on back-up RBs. This year make it clear that the new-breed defensive players are just too strong and too fast. Most full time running backs simply can't make it through a season without getting banged up. Kolby Smith, Maurice Morris, Chester Taylor, Justin Fargas, Earnest Graham, Ryan Grant...even RBBC guys geting less carries like Fred Taylor and Marion Barber...were fanasy gold at times throughout the season.

4) Don't overestimate the "injury prone label" when making pre-season evaluations. Just way too unpredictable. Guess who missed time due to injury this year? Every running back in my league's 1st round (except LT). Guess who didn't miss any? Clinton Portis. Go back to the preseason discussions and see if you would've believed that (especially compared to "old reliable" Rudi Johnson).

5) Wait on drafting a defense. Every year I grab a D, and every year I drop them around week 5 for a team that wasn't on anyone's radar before the season started. Whoever spent a 6th round pick on Baltimore and Chicago or drafted the Broncos, Miami, Eagles, Niners and Panthers were upset, while everyone who grabbed the Seahawks, Titans, Colts, Bucs, or Giants off the waiver wire was stoked.

6) Wait on drafting QBs. Some prior posts by FREEBAGEL sold me. I couldn't do them justice, so search for em.

These are some off the top of my head. Please feel free to add.

This was a great post.

 

[LILB811]

This is what I try to remember every year but was especially important this year - WATCH THE GAMES. The more football you watch the better you'll be. For instance:I was intrigued by the trade for Grant, Thompson doesn't do a lot of trading so I thought there must be something to this. I made a point to watch how he played from his very first opportunity. Because I liked his style and thought he was talented I grabbed him off of the waiver wire while deshawn wynn was still hot. Your eyes will tell you things that stats can't. Trust your ability to recognize good players before the stats prove them to be. Also trust your eyes to show you when something is anomalous. If your watching convinces you that a player overperformed this year and his production was based on unlikely circumstance you can trade him away to a stat hound at the peak of his value. The NFL network is a must have.

This is the philosophy I like to live by. And it's not just for the current guys, it's for the draft prospects too. Before my rookie draft this past summer I just looked at short highlight films of the players on Yahoo, just a couple minutes on maybe 10-12 guys. I definitely think it's the reason that I could see guys like Brandon Jackson were just average and a guy like Sidney Rice had a ton of potential.Fantasy football definitely is luck, no doubt about it, but avoiding bad players or guys who turn out to be busts can be helped by watching a lot of games.

 

[DoubleG]

Work the waiver wire like a mother.

My starting lineup for the Super Bowl (and pretty much for week's 14 & 15 playoff games) was. ManningJamal LewisEarnest Graham*Marques Colston+Bobby Engram*Roddy White*Antonio Gates++Nick Folk** = WW pickup 2007+ = WW pickup 2006++ = acquired via trade in 2004Point being, only Manning and Jamal Lewis were drafted - 5 of the 8 were WW pickups and Gates was acquired via trade.

 

[hauser42]

A few I've made mental notes on...

1) When the time comes around, MOCK DRAFT like crazy, from as many positions as possible. Plenty of sites out there to do it, this included. Yes it's fun, but more importantly it does something extremely valuable. It forces you to make decisions before draft day. "I'm up, would I draft Player A ahead of Player B?". Tough decisions like that can be made ahead of time, and more importantly, you understand WHY you're making that decision. It also gives you a chance to experiment with different strategies (RB-RB, RB-WR, WR-WR, etc.), and see what kind of teams you come up with.

2) Never underestimate the power of your own research/rankings. I do value many sites and writers' opinion and rankings, but I also think it's crucial to do my own. It gives me a chance to form my own opinions about players, rather than base my decisions on another ranking list.

3) And speaking of rankings....A few things I've tried that I feel comfortable with: 1) First off, I do a set of rankings right now, while everything is fresh in my head. Then I don't even touch them again until well after the NFL draft and Free Agency. 2) When ranking/researching players, I throw week 17 out of the equation. Like it never happened. It affects too many top players that are obviously limited that week, and it also inflates many other players. While it's useful in targetting potential sleepers, as far as most of the other top players are concerned, I'll know the same exact information about them without week 17 stats. Not to mention it hurts you if fantasy PPG is something you give serious consideration to. 3) While it's important to evaluate a whole season of stats for players, it's also just as important to compare everyone's stats using the second half of the year only. I get a good feel for how players "heated up" or "cooled down" towards the end of the season, as well as how certain players that started off slow compare to others down the stretch.

1. totally agree, I have mocked out my main leagues draft for about 6 years now, we base draft posistion on previuos years record so it is known right after the season. Have recieved a lot of crap for this because I did it on paper and many times through out the year. Now I just go online and draft as much as I can from my spot. It makes you look at different strategies for draft day, alwasy prefer to drive against live people since the can throw loops in easier. MOCK MOCK MOCK2. Own research is best because it should be based on your scoring system something that the magazine and sites might not be formed to. You also might feel different about a player no matter what you read out there. I use sites and magazines as a resource for news and rely on my self for who to draft come draft day. I keep a binder full of off season and training camp news notes. Break it down by teams so I can glance at it during the draft when looking at two players.

I will add this year was very crazy. Been playing since 90 and I have never seen so many RBs being out there via WW so late in the season. Injuries and RBBCs led to this but I dont think it will be as bad next year.

Who ever stated it is easier to find info is correct. There are no more sleepers really out there, but I think what it does is cause some people to draft that sleeper to early because the believe he will break out. Personally I read the sleepers and busts by people so I know what everyone else is thinking about these guys at my drafts. Supposed busts can be bargains as people let them drop too far in the draft.

 

[dickey moe]

This may be common knowledge to a lot of owners, but in most leagues, do not draft a Defense/ST until the final rounds unless exceptional value presents itself a little early (but not too early). Also, always use your last pick on your kicker. It's impossible to predict whose going to be on top each year and there is not much variance at the position anyways to make it worth drafting one earlier. You need to use those late rounds to fill up on sleeper RB and WR picks.

 

[FFdork]

I didn't really learn this lesson this year, but if people aren't careful they'll be writing this in next year's version of this thread: don't overreact to one year.

You can tell yourself that fantasy is 100% luck if you want to, but I think poker is a good analogy. Luck plays a bigger factor than skill in any given hand or even any single tournament, but if you look at your performance over the long haul, that's where the better players will begin to show themselves. The same is true for fantasy.

I still think there's a huge preparation factor to fantasy when you compare people on boards like this one to your average player. I think most people in my leagues still prepare with fantasy magazines or the bad intel at places like CBS Sportsline and ESPN. I still feel I have a big edge over those people. Now, if your everyone in your league subscribes to FBG, I can understand why people would feel that research was overrated.

 

[posty]

This may be common knowledge to a lot of owners, but in most leagues, do not draft a Defense/ST until the final rounds unless exceptional value presents itself a little early (but not too early). Also, always use your last pick on your kicker. It's impossible to predict whose going to be on top each year and there is not much variance at the position anyways to make it worth drafting one earlier. You need to use those late rounds to fill up on sleeper RB and WR picks.

Not if you use a keeper league that keeps a player drafted minus 3 for the next year... That is when you get the sleepers picks that you want to keep...

 

[Keys Myaths]

I didn't really learn this lesson this year, but if people aren't careful they'll be writing this in next year's version of this thread: don't overreact to one year.You can tell yourself that fantasy is 100% luck if you want to, but I think poker is a good analogy. Luck plays a bigger factor than skill in any given hand or even any single tournament, but if you look at your performance over the long haul, that's where the better players will begin to show themselves. The same is true for fantasy.I still think there's a huge preparation factor to fantasy when you compare people on boards like this one to your average player. I think most people in my leagues still prepare with fantasy magazines or the bad intel at places like CBS Sportsline and ESPN. I still feel I have a big edge over those people. Now, if your everyone in your league subscribes to FBG, I can understand why people would feel that research was overrated.

I love comparing FF to poker. It's so true.