Lessons learned from 2007 (1 Viewer)

[gregjcross]

While they are fresh in our minds, lets post some general lessons we learned this year that can help us for next year.

1) Follow the off-season developments of a team's O-Line. Not to over simplify, but the Bengals lost Eric Steinbach and came in to 2007 with two injured tackles. At the same time, the Browns got Steinbach, drafted Joe Thomas and make some good offseason signings. I think their offenses reflected those situations. Also look to the Jets losing Kendall and the preseason talk of the improvement of the Raiders line (well...at least for the running game). The year before, the Vikings did the most to improve their line. Pretty clearly reflects fantasy performance.

2) Follow the coordinators changes and attitudes as much as the head coaches. Do the research and see who's calling the plays. Who cares if Tomlin is Pittsburgh's coach if Arians is deciding what to do on the field? And...if a coordinator says he's throwing, believe him.

3) Spend a bunch of late round picks on back-up RBs. This year make it clear that the new-breed defensive players are just too strong and too fast. Most full time running backs simply can't make it through a season without getting banged up. Kolby Smith, Maurice Morris, Chester Taylor, Justin Fargas, Earnest Graham, Ryan Grant...even RBBC guys geting less carries like Fred Taylor and Marion Barber...were fanasy gold at times throughout the season.

4) Don't overestimate the "injury prone label" when making pre-season evaluations. Just way too unpredictable. Guess who missed time due to injury this year? Every running back in my league's 1st round (except LT). Guess who didn't miss any? Clinton Portis. Go back to the preseason discussions and see if you would've believed that (especially compared to "old reliable" Rudi Johnson).

5) Wait on drafting a defense. Every year I grab a D, and every year I drop them around week 5 for a team that wasn't on anyone's radar before the season started. Whoever spent a 6th round pick on Baltimore and Chicago or drafted the Broncos, Miami, Eagles, Niners and Panthers were upset, while everyone who grabbed the Seahawks, Titans, Colts, Bucs, or Giants off the waiver wire was stoked.

6) Wait on drafting QBs. Some prior posts by FREEBAGEL sold me. I couldn't do them justice, so search for em.

These are some off the top of my head. Please feel free to add.

Saying wait on drafting defense doesnt add up, San Diego New England, two of the top 5, certainly were not dissapointed. Same goes for QBs (Brady, Manning, Palmer)

 

[FFdork]

Saying wait on drafting defense doesnt add up, San Diego New England, two of the top 5, certainly were not dissapointed. Same goes for QBs (Brady, Manning, Palmer)

I think the point was there are typically plenty of good options available on the waiver wire and you'd be better off using the kind of pick required to get a Chicago on a player at another position. Of course, this is all generalities--if the top defenses in your league score a ton of points and really seperate themselves from the field, you should spend the pick on what you think will be one of the top Ds.As far as QBs go, this argument goes around and around. What people are saying is that as long as your league only starts one QB, there is always value at that position (go back and see where Romo and Big Ben were drafted in your league this year). Inevitably someone points to Team X in their league that drafted Brady (or the equivalent QB in other years) and ran away with the league. My comeback is that Team X almost never drafts Brady with a first or second round pick. I guarantee that most of the 'Brady Steamroller' teams from this year got good RBs and/or WRs with those first couple of round picks and then got Brady in the 3rd or 4th round (remember, Brady was frequently ranked behind Manning, Brees and Palmer heading into this year). I usually like to wait until the middle rounds to draft a QB, but if I have a guy projected for a monster year, I will take a QB earlier if he falls to me at the right value (usually late 3rd round or after, but these things change from year to year).

 

[CorteztheKiller]

I learned that you can afford to be a little patient with a little bit of your roster but you can't afford to overextend on guys who are either injured or are underperforming. While you are waiting for those "chickens to hatch", points are being left on the table.

 

[hitman2]

Patience!

I dropped Ryan Grant for Derek Hagan just before he boomed.

I threw up in my mouth when he went off. I still do sometimes.

Loved his fumbles, hated the 200+3 last Sunday.

Worst part is I have BJax and Morency.

I'm glad that is my rebuilding team.

OUCH!

 

[3nOut]

The O-line comment is spot on and the most important evaluator IMO of RB's and to a lesser extent QB's (horrendous lines will effect QB play).

Make your evaluations of players and situations, listen to input but make your own decisions. There's a lot of group think on the board and you should trust your instincts.

I was a paying member on this site for many years but this year couldn't renew my subscription. I visited this board a lot and gleened some good informatoin here. Even though I missed a lot of good content from FBG, I learned that I relied on their opinions, rankings, stats, too much and did beter when I took a step back, analyzed the info myself, and made my own decisions. I won my league this year. That said, I will probably renew my subscription next year, but hopefully take in all the info differntly than I did before.

 

[3nOut]

The RB rule: You can't have too many. You really, really can't. You just can't. No, really you can't. Can't.

Yes, I can. Its against our league rules. We have a roster limit per position.

 

[3nOut]

One other things I did this year is study the draft tendencies of my league. I kept the draft results for my league for the past few years and saw a pattern in the draft. I knew approximately how many RBs, WRs, QBs, etc were taken each year. I basically knew what position to draft when. When I found out my draft slot, I knew when to take a certain player, or at least position I was targeting. I tried to draft a position before a run was made thus keeping me one step ahead of the competition. I made my rankings, ran through drafting different scenarios to see what my roster would look like if I drafted in a certain order. This hepled me a lot.

 

[chook]

Saying wait on drafting defense doesnt add up, San Diego New England, two of the top 5, certainly were not dissapointed. Same goes for QBs (Brady, Manning, Palmer)

In the non-IDP league I play in I picked the Vikes up off the FA pile post-draft. I'd say wait.

 

[heidbrink]

My Favorite comment...

The O-line comment is spot on and the most important evaluator IMO of RB's and to a lesser extent QB's (horrendous lines will effect QB play).Make your evaluations of players and situations, listen to input but make your own decisions. There's a lot of group think on the board and you should trust your instincts.

Plus, those that made the points to the importance of depth at RB are also correct. True as ever was.All of the above however are perienal truths and not necessarily lessons learned this year. But, if you learned these things you will likely improve on the flip. Those that think its all luck...well...sorry about your loss buddy. Keep your chin up. There is always next year. Yes indeed, there is a lot of luck. For all of our studying and work we never really know. In the end, if we knew what was going to happen this hobby of ours would not be any fun.

 

[Jayrod]

Here's some of my personal thoughts after the season:

-The factor of luck in your league is inversely proportional to the complexity and size of your league. More starters and more points leads to a decrease in the luck factor of victories week in and week out. The converse is true as well. Formats such as dynasty/keeper can add complexity and minimize luck as well as playing in larger (12 or 14 team) leagues.

-Never rest. Draft well, hit the waiver wire well and trade well. I won my IDP dynasty league this year and it is for one main reason, IMO: I spent more time on the site looking over rosters and analyzing team needs and the waiver wire than anyone. That was after I put in tons of pre-draft analysis. I was really happy with my draft, but made two key moves right before week 1 (I got Witten for Gonzo in one trade and then got BMarshall for Crayton in another, both as reactions to the Terry Glenn news). I also scoured the waiver wire and ended up with some big time IDP contributors, most notably Jon Beason (LB, CAR). These moves were the difference between making the playoffs and being the champ (as well as the total points winner)

-Take risks - while making a bad trade can eat at you for a long time (in the aforementioned league, I traded Colston & Holmes for Marvin Harrison and a D-lineman I later dropped ), moves can just as easily pay off big time. Plus it is just more fun to make deals instead of sit back and wait the season out. Nothing is sweeter than having a hunch and buying low on a guy who blows up later in the season.

-Don't ever neglect the RB's - even in this WR & QB crazy season, RB's led the way at the end of the season and the playoffs. Brady and Anderson fizzled in week 15 (as did their WR's), but a stout pair of RB's like Tomlinson & Jacobs or SJax & Portis won many a team's championship. You need the WR's to get you regular season wins, but the RB's get you the championship. And in an IDP league, linebackers are equally as important as runningbacks (depending on your league scoring, of course).

 

[ComfortablyNumb]

 

[Cool in the pocket]

 

[kawaihae]

While they are fresh in our minds, lets post some general lessons we learned this year that can help us for next year.

1) Follow the off-season developments of a team's O-Line. Not to over simplify, but the Bengals lost Eric Steinbach and came in to 2007 with two injured tackles. At the same time, the Browns got Steinbach, drafted Joe Thomas and make some good offseason signings. I think their offenses reflected those situations. Also look to the Jets losing Kendall and the preseason talk of the improvement of the Raiders line (well...at least for the running game). The year before, the Vikings did the most to improve their line. Pretty clearly reflects fantasy performance.

2) Follow the coordinators changes and attitudes as much as the head coaches. Do the research and see who's calling the plays. Who cares if Tomlin is Pittsburgh's coach if Arians is deciding what to do on the field? And...if a coordinator says he's throwing, believe him.

3) Spend a bunch of late round picks on back-up RBs. This year make it clear that the new-breed defensive players are just too strong and too fast. Most full time running backs simply can't make it through a season without getting banged up. Kolby Smith, Maurice Morris, Chester Taylor, Justin Fargas, Earnest Graham, Ryan Grant...even RBBC guys geting less carries like Fred Taylor and Marion Barber...were fanasy gold at times throughout the season.

4) Don't overestimate the "injury prone label" when making pre-season evaluations. Just way too unpredictable. Guess who missed time due to injury this year? Every running back in my league's 1st round (except LT). Guess who didn't miss any? Clinton Portis. Go back to the preseason discussions and see if you would've believed that (especially compared to "old reliable" Rudi Johnson).

5) Wait on drafting a defense. Every year I grab a D, and every year I drop them around week 5 for a team that wasn't on anyone's radar before the season started. Whoever spent a 6th round pick on Baltimore and Chicago or drafted the Broncos, Miami, Eagles, Niners and Panthers were upset, while everyone who grabbed the Seahawks, Titans, Colts, Bucs, or Giants off the waiver wire was stoked.

6) Wait on drafting QBs. Some prior posts by FREEBAGEL sold me. I couldn't do them justice, so search for em.

These are some off the top of my head. Please feel free to add.

I started this thread a few days after my league ended last year with the intention of reposting soon before draft time. I hope it helps people remember the things that they were thinking at the end of last season.Applying the lessons I learned last year to this year, my quick follow up thoughts are that

1) the Pittsburgh OLine took the biggest downgrade in the offseason, and their running game hasn't looked too great in the preseason. I look for that trend to continue. Also, Chicago and Baltmore's Oline looks to be in shambles and, as much as I like Marshawn Lynch, they better get that mess straightened up. On the other hand, NY Jets Oline is supposedly much improved, and I think the Texans will be a better running team than people are expecting (but who to pick? I'm taking Darius Walker as my #6 RB on a whim).

2) Jim Zorn is throwing it this year, and their offense has been humming in the preseason. I think that Campbell, and maybe Santana Moss, should be ranked a little higher as a result.

3) Last year was the year of the RB injury, and I don't think that trend will reverse for the reasons mentioned above. So, I will be targeting the lesser known RBs in the RBBCs later in drafts. These are the guys that are in an established RBBC, but are going later in drafts than their RBBC mate. I'm talking about guys like Maurice Morris, DeAngelo Williams, Felix Jones, Jerious Norwood, Ricky Williams, etc. They will produce RB4 numbers, then when an injury occurs, they jump way up in production.

4) I'm taking ADP at #2, and I don't care how many injuries he's had in the past. Without a known, certified injury that he's suffering from now (like McGahee), he's exactly as "injury prone" as every other RB in the league. At least that's what I tell myself every day leading up to the draft.

5) I'm doing IDP this year, so screw DST. It always messed me up in the draft anyway.

6) I think this is a great year to wait on QBs (but my statement is based on my league's scoring system, I think you have to look at your league's before you make this kind of determination). Some good names out there late...Aaron Rogers, David Gerrard, Matt Schuab/Sage Rosenfels, Jay Cutler, McNabb, Campbell, Delhomme... Throw out Brady's once in a generation year last year, and these lower round guys will have numbers that will probably be close enough to the top guys to get you far in your league (especially if you stacked your other positions by waiting on your QB).